Some interest stats to ponder before our game tonight (11 personnel vs 12, Allen, Defense)

[Einstein]

These are some stats that @HoofHearted and I have been playing with via private message since the Patriots loss on Sunday.

Bills offense 11 personnel vs 12 personnel

Passing

11 Personnel: 132/148 for 849 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT, 5 Sacks, 5.4 A/DYPA

12 Personnel: 66/91 for 754 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT, 4 Sacks 8.3 A/DYPA

 

Rushing

11 Personnel: 94 attempts for 457 yards, 4.86 YPC, 6 TD, 1 Fumble, 31 first downs, 11 attempts inside the 5 yard line.

12 Personnel: 57 attempts for 186 yards, 3.26 YPC, 1 TD, 2 Fumble, 10 first downs, 3 attempts inside the 5 yard line.

How does play-action affect passing performance?

 

11 Personnel with p/a: 20/26 for 144 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 7.86 A/NYPA

 

11 Personnel withOUT p/a: 69/106 for 705 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT, 4.86 A/NYPA

 

 

12 Personnel with p/a: 23/32 for 397 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 12.42 A/NYPA

 

12 Personnel withOUT p/a: 43/59 for 357 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 6.03 A/NYPA

Rushing performance by blocking scheme

 

Totality

Zone: 61 attempts for 218 yards, 3.57 ypc, 2 TD.
Man: 90 attempts for 448 yards, 4.98 ypc, 3 TD.

Under Center

Zone: 27 attempts for 92 yards, 3.41 ypc, 0 TD.
Man: 37 attempts for 242 yards, 6.54 ypc, 1 TD.

Shotgun

Zone: 33 attempts for 128 yards, 3.88 ypc, 2 TD.
Man: 53 attempts for 206 yards, 3.89 ypc, 2 TD.

Other notes and observations

1) The Patriots had a clear gameplan as Mac Jones got rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds on 72.7% of his dropbacks.

2) I see a lot of people claiming there were open receivers everywhere during the Patriots game and Allen simply wasn't seeing them. Were there some? Sure. Was it rampant? I very much disagree. I think that narrative was overblown and didn't take into account the nuance of the read progression and pressure.  I have a feeling that these people are counting plays like the one below, which, sure, technically these players aren't covered -  but what exactly do you want Allen to do here? He is about get wacked by multiple Patriots defensive players, and he has 3 receivers all within 5 yards of each other (tipped pass nightmare scenario). Maybe side arm a pass to the left crosser? I absolutely hate the spacing we have shown all year. I know what Dorseys play is attempting to do here, but you need time to do it.



The below image is another example. Yes, there are receivers open. However, Allen has to deal with a free rusher (literally not a single linemen sees him) and therefore can't keep his eyes downfield. So yes, technically open receivers, but the QB has to get out of dodge.



Another example below. Diggs JUST became open as he passed the LB level. The problem? Allen is being wrecked by a DT at the same time. Some will say Allen should be throwing with anticipation, but that is a very difficult throw - in-between and over the top of the defender?



Third down separation.



And yeah, I could find several plays where guys were open and Allen didn't go through his progressions fast enough. But the point is that there is nuance to these conversations. Many plays where receivers were "open" were in reality a situation where Allen had to take his eyes off of downfield due to a rusher. Other times, Allen got rid of the ball quickly because on the previous play, he got smacked by a free rusher. The whole pie matters.


3) Very rare to say this, but Taron Johnson played very poorly. He was responsible for the Patriots final two TD's, he had very poor leverage for the slant on both 2nd and 3rd down with seconds to go in the game, and he didn't get anywhere near his WR on the Patriots TD that put them ahead with 7 minutes left. Part of this is scheme and how our defensive backs were (I assume) taught to play the trips set that NE had on the field.

4) Poyer had a really slow start to the season but he has been playing much better over the previous 3 games. 

.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Einstein

[Yobogoya!]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

These are some stats that @HoofHearted and I have been playing with via private message since the Patriots loss on Sunday.

Bills offense 11 personnel vs 12 personnel

Passing

11 Personnel: 132/148 for 849 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT, 5 Sacks, 5.4 A/DYPA

12 Personnel: 66/91 for 754 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT, 4 Sacks 8.3 A/DYPA

 

Rushing

11 Personnel: 94 attempts for 457 yards, 4.86 YPC, 6 TD, 1 Fumble, 31 first downs, 11 attempts inside the 5 yard line.

12 Personnel: 57 attempts for 186 yards, 3.26 YPC, 1 TD, 2 Fumble, 10 first downs, 3 attempts inside the 5 yard line.

How does play-action affect passing performance?

 

11 Personnel with p/a: 20/26 for 144 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 7.86 A/NYPA

 

11 Personnel withOUT p/a: 69/106 for 705 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT, 4.86 A/NYPA

 

 

12 Personnel with p/a: 23/32 for 397 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 12.42 A/NYPA

 

12 Personnel withOUT p/a: 43/59 for 357 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 6.03 A/NYPA

Rushing performance by blocking scheme

 

Totality

Zone: 61 attempts for 218 yards, 3.57 ypc, 2 TD.
Man: 90 attempts for 448 yards, 4.98 ypc, 3 TD.

Under Center

Zone: 27 attempts for 92 yards, 3.41 ypc, 0 TD.
Man: 37 attempts for 242 yards, 6.54 ypc, 1 TD.

Shotgun

Zone: 33 attempts for 128 yards, 3.88 ypc, 2 TD.
Man: 53 attempts for 206 yards, 3.89 ypc, 2 TD.

Other notes and observations

1) The Patriots had a clear gameplan as Mac Jones got rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds on 72.7% of his dropbacks.

2) I see a lot of people claiming there were open receivers everywhere during the Patriots game and Allen simply wasn't seeing them. Were there some? Sure. Was it rampant? I very much disagree. I think that narrative was overblown and didn't take into account the nuance of the read progression and pressure.  I have a feeling that these people are counting plays like the one below, which, sure, technically these players aren't covered -  but what exactly do you want Allen to do here? He is about get wacked by multiple Patriots defensive players, and he has 3 receivers all within 5 yards of each other (tipped pass nightmare scenario). Maybe side arm a pass to the left crosser? I absolutely hate the spacing we have shown all year. I know what Dorseys play is attempting to do here, but you need time to do it.



The below image is another example. Yes, there are receivers open. However, Allen has to deal with a free rusher (literally not a single linemen sees him) and therefore can't keep his eyes downfield. So yes, technically open receivers, but the QB has to get out of dodge.



Another example below. Diggs JUST became open once he passed the LB level. The problem? Allen is being wrecked by a DT at the same time.



Third down separation.



And yeah, I could find several plays where guys were open and Allen didn't go through his progressions fast enough. But the point is that there is nuance to these conversations. Many plays where receivers were "open", Allen took his eyes off of downfield due to a rusher. Other times, Allen got rid of the ball quickly because on the previous play, he got smacked by a free rusher. The whole pie matters.


3) Very rare to say this, but Taron Johnson played very poorly. He was responsible for the Patriots final two TD's, he had very poor leverage for the slant on both 2nd and 3rd down with seconds to go in the game, and he didn't get anywhere near his WR on the Patriots TD that put them ahead. Part of this is scheme and how the defenders were (I assume) to play the trips set that NE had on the field.

4) Poyer had a really slow start to the season but he has been playing much better over the previous 3 games. 

 

Thanks for the post. Taron definitely had one of his worst games to this point in my memory. 

 

Question, seems it seems like you've been watching a bit of film here: have you noticed the Bills run any "one off" plays? Like, to me it seems like we haven't run a trick play, a gadget play, or just even a unique new look of a play all year. Does that sound right? If we have, I didn't recognize it in real time. 

 

Daboll sometimes got a little too "cutesy" with his trick stuff, but he usually was good for at least one a game. Sometimes they worked to great effect, and it kept defenses guessing. It's a big criticism I have of Dorsey to this point. 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Yobogoya!

[Einstein]

Just now, Yobogoya! said:

have you noticed the Bills any "one off" plays? Like, to me it seems like we haven't run a trick play, a gadget play, or just even a unique new look of a play all year.

Not a single one comes to my mind. 

Perhaps another poster can think of one I am missing.

[mrags]

That spacing that you mentioned that is in that first pick has been absolutely terrible. It’s a huge problem with Dorsey imo. I understand like you that with the right protection the play could work. But the fact is we haven’t had the best protection since Josh got here. Just assume it’s not happening. 

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

That spacing that you mentioned that is in that first pick has been absolutely terrible. It’s a huge problem with Dorsey imo. I understand like you that with the right protection the play could work. But the fact is we haven’t had the best protection since Josh got here. Just assume it’s not happening. 

 

Yeah I mean I get what Dorsey is attempting to accomplish by sending crossers in opposite directions, but unless you have very speedy receivers and a line that will definitely hold up in 00 or 10 personnel, it ends up in the scenario you see in the first picture. A QB about to get smacked and multiple WR's in the same area.

[Jerome007]

I too noticed Johnson had a really bad game and Poyer had  a good one. 

[Buffalo716]

This offense has zero identity

 

That's the biggest problem... Dorsey has no idea who he wants to be 

 

We should be under center way more where the rbs are more comfortable running behind man blocking schemes 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

This offense has zero identity

 

That's the biggest problem... Dorsey has no idea who he wants to be 

 

We should be under center way more where the rbs are more comfortable running power 

 

I don't know if it's true but someone on WGR, maybe Sal, said that Allen is more comfortable in shotgun and that's his preference.

[Buffalo716]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I don't know if it's true but someone on WGR, maybe Sal, said that Allen is more comfortable in shotgun and that's his preference.

I think Josh is comfortable out of shotgun

 

But he played under center a bunch at Wyoming and he always seemed very comfortable under center 

 

He had way more practice under center than Baker and Rosen and Lamar and darnold ...

 

Over 6 years we have been turning Josh into a spread quarterback but he certainly can take a seven step drop from under center and it keeps the defense honest 

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I think Josh is comfortable out of shotgun

 

But he played under center a bunch at Wyoming and he always seemed very comfortable under center 

 

He had way more practice under center than Baker and Rosen and Lamar and darnold ...

 

Over 6 years we have been turning Josh into a spread quarterback but he certainly can take a seven step drop from under center and it keeps the defense honest 

 

Should we unleash and make him a true dual threat again?

[WotAGuy]

I appreciate the time and effort by the authors of the OP and others in the community to present useful and enlightening data. Buy yourselves a beer on me!

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

I appreciate the time and effort by the authors of the OP and others in the community to present useful and enlightening data. Buy yourselves a beer on me!

I'll take a shirley temple thank you.

[Buffalo716]

19 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Should we unleash and make him a true dual threat again?

Ofc Josh has an elite arm and is a elite runner from the QB position

 

Yes it's a 17 game season now so maybe he is in preservation mode a bit ... Bring it when it matters most

 

I think Josh will bring back his true dual threat nature around December January when it matters most ... And then we will be tough to stop

[HoofHearted]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

This offense has zero identity

 

That's the biggest problem... Dorsey has no idea who he wants to be 

 

We should be under center way more where the rbs are more comfortable running power 

Don’t think I can recall us running power once this year.

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, HoofHearted said:

Don’t think I can recall us running power once this year.

Power was synonymous with man in some verbiages especially when I grew up.. zone was finesse so calling man power was stronger 

 

I'm not saying strictly a power-o run which is gap

 

I'm using power interchangeably with man because that was the verbiage my coaches used growing up and it just stuck with me 

 

I think our running game operates much more efficiently under center with a man blocking scheme... Then the iso out of shotgun

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Buffalo716

[msw2112]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Should we unleash and make him a true dual threat again?

 

I think he should be "allowed" to scramble/run when there's an open lane in front of him.  He needs to finish the plays by sliding or getting out of bounds.  He should not be running designed running plays (other than sneaks), nor should he be taking on linebackers and safeties.  I've noticed this year many times when there's a ton of green grass in front of Josh and he could easily run for the the first down and he's hanging onto the ball and throwing it.  He should absolutely run in those situations.  If that's what's meant by "unleashing" then by all means yes.

Edited October 26, 2023 by msw2112

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

This offense has zero identity

 

That's the biggest problem... Dorsey has no idea who he wants to be 

 

We should be under center way more where the rbs are more comfortable running power 

More 11 personnel.  More play action.  Spread the offense with 3 wrs.  Let Josh take off when appropriate. Hurry up or no huddle allowing Josh an early read.  Keep looking for Cook out of the backfield.  

[Einstein]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I'm using power interchangeably with man which a lot of coaches used 20-30 years ago

 

A man blocking scheme was just called power

Power is typically gap blocking where i've seen it used. Backside gap.

[Buffalo716]

28 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Power is typically gap blocking where i've seen it used. Backside gap.

I get that

 

I'm saying 30 years ago.. when I was learning the game... There were some coaches that would use the word power for a man blocking scheme... 

 

It was just a verbiage they used ... 

 

I understand a power o is a gap blocking scheme... They were just using the word power interchangeably with man... Not necessarily talking about a power-o

 

And it's one of those verbiages that just stuck in my head

 

The bills are much better running Man blocking under center then trying to force ISO out of shotgun

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Buffalo716

[MJS]

You are failing to account for Josh Allen doing his job pre-snap, which is to identify blitzers, set the line, audible out of doomed plays. That's the big issue.

 

And Allen has never been a fast processor post snap. He likes to let things develop. He doesn't get the ball out quickly or take his hot routes or dump offs.

 

It hasn't been a disaster, but at times he isn't good enough. That goes for almost everyone on offense against the Pats last week. Allen wasn't alone. Lots of players failed.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

These are some stats that @HoofHearted and I have been playing with via private message since the Patriots loss on Sunday.

Bills offense 11 personnel vs 12 personnel

Passing

11 Personnel: 132/148 for 849 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT, 5 Sacks, 5.4 A/DYPA

12 Personnel: 66/91 for 754 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT, 4 Sacks 8.3 A/DYPA

 

Rushing

11 Personnel: 94 attempts for 457 yards, 4.86 YPC, 6 TD, 1 Fumble, 31 first downs, 11 attempts inside the 5 yard line.

12 Personnel: 57 attempts for 186 yards, 3.26 YPC, 1 TD, 2 Fumble, 10 first downs, 3 attempts inside the 5 yard line.

How does play-action affect passing performance?

 

11 Personnel with p/a: 20/26 for 144 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 7.86 A/NYPA

 

11 Personnel withOUT p/a: 69/106 for 705 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT, 4.86 A/NYPA

 

 

12 Personnel with p/a: 23/32 for 397 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 12.42 A/NYPA

 

12 Personnel withOUT p/a: 43/59 for 357 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 6.03 A/NYPA

Rushing performance by blocking scheme

 

Totality

Zone: 61 attempts for 218 yards, 3.57 ypc, 2 TD.
Man: 90 attempts for 448 yards, 4.98 ypc, 3 TD.

Under Center

Zone: 27 attempts for 92 yards, 3.41 ypc, 0 TD.
Man: 37 attempts for 242 yards, 6.54 ypc, 1 TD.

Shotgun

Zone: 33 attempts for 128 yards, 3.88 ypc, 2 TD.
Man: 53 attempts for 206 yards, 3.89 ypc, 2 TD.

Other notes and observations

1) The Patriots had a clear gameplan as Mac Jones got rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds on 72.7% of his dropbacks.

2) I see a lot of people claiming there were open receivers everywhere during the Patriots game and Allen simply wasn't seeing them. Were there some? Sure. Was it rampant? I very much disagree. I think that narrative was overblown and didn't take into account the nuance of the read progression and pressure.  I have a feeling that these people are counting plays like the one below, which, sure, technically these players aren't covered -  but what exactly do you want Allen to do here? He is about get wacked by multiple Patriots defensive players, and he has 3 receivers all within 5 yards of each other (tipped pass nightmare scenario). Maybe side arm a pass to the left crosser? I absolutely hate the spacing we have shown all year. I know what Dorseys play is attempting to do here, but you need time to do it.



The below image is another example. Yes, there are receivers open. However, Allen has to deal with a free rusher (literally not a single linemen sees him) and therefore can't keep his eyes downfield. So yes, technically open receivers, but the QB has to get out of dodge.



Another example below. Diggs JUST became open as he passed the LB level. The problem? Allen is being wrecked by a DT at the same time. Some will say Allen should be throwing with anticipation, but that is a very difficult throw - in-between and over the top of the defender?



Third down separation.



And yeah, I could find several plays where guys were open and Allen didn't go through his progressions fast enough. But the point is that there is nuance to these conversations. Many plays where receivers were "open" were in reality a situation where Allen had to take his eyes off of downfield due to a rusher. Other times, Allen got rid of the ball quickly because on the previous play, he got smacked by a free rusher. The whole pie matters.


3) Very rare to say this, but Taron Johnson played very poorly. He was responsible for the Patriots final two TD's, he had very poor leverage for the slant on both 2nd and 3rd down with seconds to go in the game, and he didn't get anywhere near his WR on the Patriots TD that put them ahead with 7 minutes left. Part of this is scheme and how our defensive backs were (I assume) taught to play the trips set that NE had on the field.

4) Poyer had a really slow start to the season but he has been playing much better over the previous 3 games. 

.

Good stuff here.  Thanks. 

[Buffalo716]

@Einstein

 

Thanks for the breakdown of stats

 

I know that takes time

[Alphadawg7]

Watching the All-22 this year, the one thing that has stood out how often there are spacing issues in our play designs, including the interception to open the game against the Pats.  Is it Dorsey and poor play design or are the WR's not running the right depths on their routes?  That is the question, but given the frequency of it, I am having a hard time believing it's not Dorsey.  

 

 

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Drew21PA]

3 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

This offense has zero identity

 

That's the biggest problem... Dorsey has no idea who he wants to be 

 

We should be under center way more where the rbs are more comfortable running behind man blocking schemes 

When I sit back and think I feel the same way that we have no idea whom we are

 

rheyvsure did a good job of taking it all off Josh but now we don’t know what it is at all

 

at least before we knew we were too Josh Allen reliant 

[HoofHearted]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Watching the All-22 this year, the one thing that has stood out how often there are spacing issues in our play designs, including the interception to open the game against the Pats.  Is it Dorsey and poor play design or are the WR's not running the right depths on their routes?  That is the question, but given the frequency of it, I am having a hard time believing it's not Dorsey.  

 

 

 

The interception was a flood concept. Allen underthrew it and the flat defender made a good play. Spacing was fine.

[Einstein]

31 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

The interception was a flood concept. Allen underthrew it

 

Yeah it was actually the right read too. Allen just underthrew it and I think Knox also ran the route a bit too shallow. A bucket drop in the red box and it’s probably a completion.

 

 

 

[Chandler#81]

What’s an interest stat?

[Alphadawg7]

57 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

The interception was a flood concept. Allen underthrew it and the flat defender made a good play. Spacing was fine.

 

21 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Yeah it was actually the right read too. Allen just underthrew it and I think Knox also ran the route a bit too shallow. A bucket drop in the red box and it’s probably a completion.

 

 

 

Initially I thought the receiver rounded his route and angled to the sideline, but watching it again I can see the subtle change of direction by the receiver from the under throw when Allen let’s go if the ball.  Although I still don’t think it was a good route by the receiver out of the break IMHO (think it was Kincaid), but I see where Allen under threw it now.

[HoofHearted]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Initially I thought the receiver rounded his route and angled to the sideline, but watching it again I can see the subtle change of direction by the receiver from the under throw when Allen let’s go if the ball.  Although I still don’t think it was a good route by the receiver out of the break IMHO (think it was Kincaid), but I see where Allen under threw it now.

It was Knox - he’s not the smoothest out of breaks but he is right about where he needs to be. That ball should hit at 18 bottom of the numbers on that concept.

[sunshynman]

19 hours ago, Einstein said:

Not a single one comes to my mind. 

Perhaps another poster can think of one I am missing.

The closest was the Harty TD (I think that was the Giants game). But yes, not many gadget plays. Would like the jet sweep every so often with Harty. 

16 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Watching the All-22 this year, the one thing that has stood out how often there are spacing issues in our play designs, including the interception to open the game against the Pats.  Is it Dorsey and poor play design or are the WR's not running the right depths on their routes?  That is the question, but given the frequency of it, I am having a hard time believing it's not Dorsey.  

 

 

 

It's Dorsey, I have never seen so many plays were WR end up with in a yard of each other at the top of their routes. It's stupid and gives the D an advantage!

3 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

It was Knox - he’s not the smoothest out of breaks but he is right about where he needs to be. That ball should hit at 18 bottom of the numbers on that concept.

Some of it was Shakir too, he ran his route too deep and that put the Defender in that spot. it should have been a shallow sideline route. 

[HoofHearted]

6 minutes ago, sunshynman said:

Some of it was Shakir too, he ran his route too deep and that put the Defender in that spot. it should have been a shallow sideline route. 

It was Kincaid - his arrow route depth of 4-5 is right where it should be. This concept has been a staple of Dorsey's because he's using it as a multiple coverage beater. The way they are running it is essentially Smash with a Vertical collector to beat both Cover 2 and Cover 3 looks. The collector (vertical) pulls the deep defender and puts the flat defender in conflict.

[Einstein]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Initially I thought the receiver rounded his route and angled to the sideline

 

I think he probably should have taken a corner angle to the sideline. I recall watching an NFL analyst probably a year or so ago (I think it may have been Brian Billick, former Ravens head coach) who was talking how our receivers were not helping Allen by continuing on with the dig instead of angling it into more of a corner route when there is a defender covering shallow. This particular play in NE was definitely underthrown regardless, but I remember seeing it often (his point) after he pointed it out. It’s a tough throw to judge to get over the shallow defender and if the receiver angles it into a corner route, it can be an easier target.

I’ll try to find the analysis clip.

[sunshynman]

4 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

It was Kincaid - his arrow route depth of 4-5 is right where it should be. This concept has been a staple of Dorsey's because he's using it as a multiple coverage beater. The way they are running it is essentially Smash with a Vertical collector to beat both Cover 2 and Cover 3 looks. The collector (vertical) pulls the deep defender and puts the flat defender in conflict.

Well then good play by the defender. Nevermind, I thought we were talking about the opening play INT to Knox. 

Edited October 27, 2023 by sunshynman

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

I think he probably should have taken a corner angle to the sideline. I recall watching an NFL analyst probably a year or so ago (I think it may have been Brian Billick, former Ravens head coach) who was talking how our receivers were not helping Allen by continuing on with the dig instead of angling it into more of a corner route when there is a defender covering shallow. This particular play in NE was definitely underthrown regardless, but I remember seeing it often (his point) after he pointed it out. It’s a tough throw to judge to get over the shallow defender and if the receiver angles it into a corner route, it can be an easier target.

I’ll try to find the analysis clip.

 

Kurt Warner talked about the Receivers route issues in the Jets game too on 2 of Allens interceptions.