Stats, PFF grades, Thoughts on Offense, and Miami coming up

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

Further proving that football WILL ALWAYS BE FOOTBALL, Shanahan and his disciple (McDaniels) have the 2 best and most balanced offenses in football.  

 

They are numbers 1 & 3 in RUSHING.  #2 is Philly.  Bills are #7.  Hopefully they keep that going.  

 

 

 

The Bills can run the ball this year. I am sold. They are not San Fran or Philly, but they can run the ball. Upgraded at IOL and upgraded at RB. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

20 hours ago, Einstein said:

• Don’t let the incredible play of the defense distract you from the fact that this was not the best game for the offense. The starting offense scored 24 points, which feels low considering the defense forced 5 turnovers and continuously gave the offense the ball. The starting offense's last three series were Interception, Turnover on Downs, Touchdown. They ended the day with 322 yards and 5.9 yards per play. To put this into perspective, the Broncos put up 399 yards and 6.4 yards per play against Washington. The offense will have to be better against Miami. On first down, we ran 7 plays that resulted in 1 yard or less, 9 plays that resulted in 2 yards or less, and 2 plays that resulted in negative yards.

 

• I feel confident writing that Bernard is a good Middle Linebacker. No qualifiers needed. No comments such as "he is good enough" or "better than expected". He is a good player. Period. He is good defending the pass and he is good at defending the run. He FLIES through gaps on run downs and is very physical for a player of his size. And we have seen his athleticism on back-to-back game interceptions. He is just plain good.

 

• Torrence had the highest pass blocking grade against the Commanders. Brown had the worst. Dawkins had the highest run blocking grade. Torrence had the worst (PFF graded him abysmally in run blocking).

 

• The Bills have the lowest blitz % in the NFL. As I mentioned in the offseason, I do not think this defense will be called much different than Frazier did. I'm sure we have all seen some differences, but it is remarkably similar to Frazier's defense.

 

• People hate calling an early season game a “must win” and I understand why. But this Miami game is, without a doubt, a very important early season game. If Miami wins, they go to 4-0 and we fall to 2-2. Miami’s next two opponents are 1-5 combined: the Giants (1-2) and Panthers (0-3). Any given Sunday, but in all likelihood, they would be 6-0. We need to hand them a loss.

 

• Kaiir Elam has done well against the Dolphins. He had an 88 coverage grade against them in the playoffs, and a season average of 75 against the Dolphins. That is the highest grade of all our cornerbacks against the Dolphins last season. By a lot.

 

• It’s a long season, but as of now, Harty seems like a miss. Beane signed him to a 2 year, $9.5M contract, which I thought indicated that we planned to use him heavily. We did draft Kincaid too, but even when Kincaid is not on the field, Harty has no real role.

 

• NextGenStats records player speed in every game. The 5 fastest times this season are ALL Miami Dolphins. Every. Single. Spot is taken by a Dolphin. Hill, Mostert and Achane have all reached speeds of 21MPH with Hill reaching 22MPH. Miami trading for Hill was such a great move. You can’t teach speed. I was hoping the trade would blow up in their face but it was honestly worth every pick they gave up and every dollar spent. As Robert Griffin III said yesterday, Hill has something that no other player in the sport has - INSTANT SPEED. This is so incredibly dangerous because he can be open within 1 second, which completely negates the defenses pass rush. Then they team him up with Waddle and turns into “pick your poison”.

 

• Fans can denigrate Tua all they want, but he is an incredibly accurate and quick thrower of the football. He will always have limitations due to size, arm strength, and height, but his incredible accuracy and quick delivery makes him lethal. YardsPerPass noted on film that he will rarely (if ever) throw to the far side boundary - likely due to arm weakness - so smart teams (such as the Patriots) are playing a lot of Cover 3 while clogging the middle of the field and forcing short side throws. The Broncos didn’t get the memo.

 

• 70 points is impressive, but make no mistake, the Broncos gave up in that game. They were also incredibly inept. Look at the carnage in this photo.

 

 

 

 

1. WGR has been obsessed with Dalton Kincaid. I think because collectively many fans and WGR hosts were on the weapon-train and they want that pick to be justified. They keep wanting deeper seam throws. Early on here, does Kincaid look fast? He looks like a 4.65-4.70 tight end to me. 

 

2. Another WGR obsession is Harty. Mike Schopp is convinced he is a deep threat. But he has not been the athlete he was advertised to be. I think he looks the exact same and is used the exact same as Isaiah McKenzie so far. He is the mini-gadget guy. He can catch bubble screens and run around for extended handoffs. 

 

3. The Bills best offense has been Allen to Diggs (that has never changed) but the 2nd pitch is now the run game. All the rest of the Bills pass catchers to me are guys. Knox looks the same, Shakir isn't used, Sherfield is a journeyman, Gabe has a nose for the end zone, but he's inconsistent, Kincaid is a volume possession target, and Harty gets a few designed passes at the LOS per game. The Bills playmakers lack speed (and size). Said it mid-way through the Jets game. 

 

4. I'm not ready to declare Bernard as no worries yet, and this goes for the entire Bills rush defense. I want to see their lack of size and speed be shown as not a problem against a team that wants to run it. Bernard looked tiny and got swept away when he crashed the run against the Jets. 

[The Frankish Reich]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

2. Another WGR obsession is Harty. Mike Schopp is convinced he is a deep threat. But he has not been the athlete he was advertised to be. I think he looks the exact same and is used the exact same as Isaiah McKenzie so far. He is the mini-gadget guy. He can catch bubble screens and run around for extended handoffs. 

McKenzie, Hines, Harty - someone (Beane? McD? Daboll/Dorsey?) is kind of obsessed with these guys. Other than a couple games where McKenzie excelled (mostly as a more traditional slot receiver) we really haven't gotten much out of any of them on offense. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

McKenzie, Hines, Harty - someone (Beane? McD? Daboll/Dorsey?) is kind of obsessed with these guys. Other than a couple games where McKenzie excelled (mostly as a more traditional slot receiver) we really haven't gotten much out of any of them on offense. 

Hines was a complete failure in my opinion. 11 touches on offense in 9 games with the Bills. Relegated to the Special Teams doghouse.

 

And I’ve said numerous times that Hines was a red flag on this OC, FO and HC when it comes to being on the same page, creativity in using an experienced running back and do they have the ability to really get Kincaid involved? 

 

Schopp’s shallow understanding of other teams depth chart shows through here: Harty was an oft-injured spare part in New Orleans. I never expected him to be a real contributor here. 
 

He’s 5’6” and looks like a 4.5 runner. 
 

To your point, they’ve chased this same player over and over, but I think it’s clear that the players they’ve chosen have low ceilings and they don’t know what they want to do.

 

As creative as it gets is a bubble screen or jet sweep. Heck our bar is so low here that any presnap motion catches your eye.

 

These players don’t have enough speed to do much with.

 

You watch the Dolphins where Hill motions across the formation, on snap the back moves opposite to Hill’s motion and draws the defense, and Tua runs in the same direction as Hill and it’s an easy 15 yards.

 

The Bills and Dorsey have nothing like that. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

14 hours ago, BRH said:

I'm no DC, but I see us flooding the middle of the field and even dropping longer guys like Rousseau and Epenesa into that mix to block vision and disrupt routes while we bring other guys off the edges.  Tua isn't even a one-read QB.  He's simply throwing to spots and expecting guys to be there, and they have been.... so far.

 

It would be a mistake to think Mike McDaniel has somehow solved football.  We will have a plan for them.  And they will have to adjust.  But what will they do?  Have Tua throw outside the numbers?  Child please.

Dropping a DL into coverage is my idea as well.  Tall guys underneath in-breaking routes sounds like a tipped ball or two to me.  Why rush 4 if there is rarely time to get there even if they beat the block early. Maybe 8 in coverage will make Tua hold the ball a little longer and give the 3 guys rushing time to win and get to him.  Could rush 3 at the snap and then send an underneath defender on a delayed rush when an OL looks for work elsewhere.  Wrecking the timing, making Tua hold it longer and then move from his spot seem like the goals to me.

[Drew21PA]

I don’t get the criticism really

 

”Allen is selfish and cost us the game” they said after the first loss 

 

“our offense isn’t putting up huge points!!”

 

they say now with a conservative Josh Allen and balanced running attack.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Hines was a complete failure in my opinion. 11 touches on offense in 9 games with the Bills. Relegated to the Special Teams doghouse.

 

And I’ve said numerous times that Hines was a red flag on this OC, FO and HC when it comes to being on the same page, creativity in using an experienced running back and do they have the ability to really get Kincaid involved? 

 

Schopp’s shallow understanding of other teams depth chart shows through here: Harty was an oft-injured spare part in New Orleans. I never expected him to be a real contributor here. 
 

He’s 5’6” and looks like a 4.5 runner. 
 

To your point, they’ve chased this same player over and over, but I think it’s clear that the players they’ve chosen have low ceilings and they don’t know what they want to do.

 

As creative as it gets is a bubble screen or jet sweep. Heck our bar is so low here that any presnap motion catches your eye.

 

These players don’t have enough speed to do much with.

 

You watch the Dolphins where Hill motions across the formation, on snap the back moves opposite to Hill’s motion and draws the defense, and Tua runs in the same direction as Hill and it’s an easy 15 yards.

 

The Bills and Dorsey have nothing like that. 

 

Harty WAS a speed threat both on gimmick plays and deep. He has had 18 months of almost constant leg and foot injuries. Doesn't look to have the same explosion now sadly. I quite liked the signing. I think he has been worthless through 3 weeks other than being surehanded enough on punt returns. 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

10 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

18 plays that resulted in 2 yards or less. The entire first half felt like 2nd & 10.  That's gotta get cleaned up or teams like Mia., KC & Cincy will school us.

 

As long as Torrence protects Josh I'm happy. He can learn run blocking techniques down the road.

 

Bernard looks special and hopefully he can continue to make plays alongside Milano.

 

I want to see more Elam & Kincaid on Sunday and less Harty (other than returns).  

The offensive gameplan seemed a little more conservative since we probably trusted our defense and the strength of Washington is the defensive line.  I doubt games against KC and cincy will be called that similarly to sunday, we’re likely gonna see a more aggressive offense on early downs in those games 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Dropping a DL into coverage is my idea as well.  Tall guys underneath in-breaking routes sounds like a tipped ball or two to me.  Why rush 4 if there is rarely time to get there even if they beat the block early. Maybe 8 in coverage will make Tua hold the ball a little longer and give the 3 guys rushing time to win and get to him.  Could rush 3 at the snap and then send an underneath defender on a delayed rush when an OL looks for work elsewhere.  Wrecking the timing, making Tua hold it longer and then move from his spot seem like the goals to me.

 

Remember when Frazier did that on 3rd and long last year, Johnson and Hamlin misplayed the play and Waddle scored touchdown? The pitchforks were out!

[Bangarang]

Beane went out and overpaid for Harty just for him to run 9 routes on offense and play only 13 snaps. 
 

He drafted Kinkaid in the 1st just for him to be an afterthought. 
 

it’s frustrating knowing this offense can be more explosive and dynamic yet it seems like we being guys in with no actual plan on how to use them.

Edited September 26, 2023 by Bangarang

[Casey D]

5 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

I don’t get the criticism really

 

”Allen is selfish and cost us the game” they said after the first loss 

 

“our offense isn’t putting up huge points!!”

 

they say now with a conservative Josh Allen and balanced running attack.

 

 

"People, they are the worst" ~~ Jerry Seinfeld

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Poyer is a liability in coverage. Actually not of our dbs Can keep up with these wide receivers. I'd like to see Poyer blitz three or 4 times this week and see if they can get a couple of good hits on Tua early.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

10 hours ago, 27yanks said:

Bills  Rushing defense:  56/Carries  332/Yards  5.9APC

Better shore it up or we're going to get gashed Sunday!!    

Subtract the onecarry for 80 yards and it is 55 carries for 250 yards. That is a more telling stat. Not great but not terrible. 

[Drew21PA]

12 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Poyer is a liability in coverage. Actually not of our dbs Can keep up with these wide receivers. I'd like to see Poyer blitz three or 4 times this week and see if they can get a couple of good hits on Tua early.

Such a knee jerk bs reaction

 

this defense just had 5 turnovers!!!!  Harassed Howell all day - with no blitzes meaning?  Ohhhhh. Backend coverage!

 

[Einstein]

49 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Early on here, does Kincaid look fast? He looks like a 4.65-4.70 tight end to me. 

 

That is what I expected him to be. He is not a burner. Travis Kelce runs a 4.6.

 

49 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Another WGR obsession is Harty. Mike Schopp is convinced he is a deep threat. But he has not been the athlete he was advertised to be. I think he looks the exact same and is used the exact same as Isaiah McKenzie so far. 

 

I have been unimpressed with Harty in the minimal amount of time we have seen him. Lots of season left to prove me wrong but so far i’m questioning spending $10M on him.

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Remember when Frazier did that on 3rd and long last year, Johnson and Hamlin misplayed the play and Waddle scored touchdown? The pitchforks were out!

Not from me.  They didn't lose that game on that play, imo.  If you have two backup players in the right place to make a play and the guy from the other team wins, that's just football.  Being unable to finish at the end of multiple 10+ play drives in unrelenting 120 degree heat was my go to reason for the loss.  Guys getting multiple IVs, puking on the field, cramping up and an OL playing on an injured knee because there was no one else left to put in.   I wonder how close we might have been to a Corey Stringer incident.

[Einstein]

12 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Subtract the onecarry for 80 yards and it is 55 carries for 250 yards. That is a more telling stat. Not great but not terrible. 

 

That still results in 4.5 yards per carry given up, which would be tied for 10th worst in NFL rush defense.

30 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Why rush 4 if there is rarely time to get there even if they beat the block early. Maybe 8 in coverage will make Tua hold the ball a little longer and give the 3 guys rushing time to win and get to him. 

 

This strategy could work but it relies on perfect gap integrity by the 3 DL and excellent tackling by the 8 in coverage.

 

Otherwise Miami would just hand the ball off all day.

[VW82]

One thing I’ve noticed this year is we’re putting ourselves in way more 3rd and long situations. Josh is converting them but that’s not a great way to sustain drives and score points. Eventually, it catches up to you. 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Poyer is a liability in coverage. Actually not of our dbs Can keep up with these wide receivers. I'd like to see Poyer blitz three or 4 times this week and see if they can get a couple of good hits on Tua early.

Poyer ranked eighth overall in the entire NFL with regard to passer rating on balls thrown his way in 2022 -- 60.1. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/defense_advanced.htm 

[Warcodered]

17 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

I have a hard time thinking we're going to win this week. Our D has been good to great this year but I still see our CBs as the weakest link on our team. I've lost confidence in Josh when he's not playing with a lead. 

Why when Josh was behind in the Jets game he drove it down with little time left to get in position for the FG to tie the game and send it to OT. Started off behind the Raiders and then raced past them.