Jordan Palmer on Allen - It’s more about the loss Brian Daboll, who Bellicheck says is elite

[Chaos]

The premise in this thread seems to be

 

1. Josh Allen needs the greatest mind in football to succeed
2. Brian Daboll is that greatest mind
3. Bringing back the greatest football mind is not feasible. 

So how do we rid ourselves of this albatross of a QB Beane stuck us with? 

 

[Mrbojanglezs]

It's better to have an offensive head coach with a franchise QB generally. The consistency on offense is more important than consistency on defense 

[Reed83HOF]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

There is a chance, indeed.

 

 But again...at this point, we're not talking about honing an elite top-level understanding.  We're talking about making bonehead decisions that the man who "changed my career when he walked into the building" (Josh's words about Dorsey) should be able to talk to Josh and be heard about.

 

 

Agree...

 

Wrong thread (kind of) but since I have your attention and I do (most of us do) trust your insight...

 

And comments or thoughts on this? I literally just had this pop up on Twitter. I want to go back and watch the entire thing...

[Punching Bag]

34 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The premise in this thread seems to be

 

1. Josh Allen needs the greatest mind in football to succeed
2. Brian Daboll is that greatest mind
3. Bringing back the greatest football mind is not feasible. 

So how do we rid ourselves of this albatross of a QB Beane stuck us with? 

 

 

Trade to Giants.

[Best Williams Available]

20 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think Jordan Palmer doesn't help himself by being America's Guest.

 

Josh's performance on Monday night should not be about losing Daboll.  Josh is a big boy now, a 6 year veteran.  He doesn't need an "elite football mind" to tell him don't make (at least 2 of) the three throws he made that were intercepted, protect the football vs. trying to get back to the LOS but taking the ball and yourself into traffic.

 

He doesn't.  Any ordinary competent fooball mind will tell him that.  Josh just has to be willing to be coachable and listen.

 

Daboll has done some good things as a coach.  Daboll has done some strange things as a coach.   If Daboll is such a great coach, why did his team get drubbed 40-0 on Sunday?  It wasn't just that they didn't win, it's that they looked awful.

 

And if Josh learned so much from 4 years with this brilliant football mind, and Josh is as smart and dedicated as Palmer tells us he is, shouldn't he be able to retain some of those learnings from Daboll - at least long enough to not do totally stupid *****?

That last paragraph really sinks Palmer’s theory to me. We should expect a great student to remain one after their teacher leaves because they retained…something. Either Josh isn’t so smart and disciplined or Daboll isn’t such a great coach. One of these is true based on recent evidence. Not sure which yet.

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Agree...

 

Wrong thread (kind of) but since I have your attention and I do (most of us do) trust your insight...

 

And comments or thoughts on this? I literally just had this pop up on Twitter. I want to go back and watch the entire thing...

god he’s got a weird presence about him 

[Reed83HOF]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

god he’s got a weird presence about him 

 

[NoSaint]

But seriously - if you were on tilt… is THAT the guy you’re wanting to get you right? 

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Agree...

 

Wrong thread (kind of) but since I have your attention and I do (most of us do) trust your insight...

 

And comments or thoughts on this? I literally just had this pop up on Twitter. I want to go back and watch the entire thing...

 

So I pretty much watched the whole thing on Youtube.

 

I don’t think the limiting Josh’s designed runs is news.  I believe McDermott and Beane both talked about it after the season.  The word Dorsey used was limiting, not taking out all together.

 

Obviously to most of us, as a means to limit Josh’s scrambles or the hits he takes when he runs, less designed runs was a “fail” last game.  It might be better to put in a couple designed runs early and get Josh some “contact” that he seems to need to settle him.

 

I’ve never known quite what to make of Dorsey’s pressers.  I didn’t like Daboll’s his first year and a half, either - I thought he improved greatly during his time here.  Part of that went with improvement in Josh’s play so he wasn’t being called on the carpet by the press, which is what this presser by Dorsey was all about.  I don’t want to conflate how a guy comes across in front of the press, with his overall professional competence or his interpersonal abilities 1:1 or with coworkers.

 

A few thoughts:

-I think Dorsey and Joe Brady have no real clue how to effectively help Josh out of a “Sugar High Josh” superhero mindset.  Dorsey said something about “Joe does a great job” (of helping Josh on the sideline).  But I can’t recall (maybe I’m missing something) a game where Josh was making unforced error after unforced error and yet pulled it together and turned it around.  Anyone else?

-Likewise I think they have no idea how to limit Josh’s running or persuade him to get down or go OOB and take fewer hits.  It reminds me of a story where a French nobleman asked the King to intervene on behalf of another nobleman and the King response “I will do what I can for you; I will pray that he leave you alone”.  I think all they can do is continue to point it out, and hope Josh absorbs it and makes changes.

-Dorsey sounded most sincere when he said he had all the confidence in the world in Josh and when he said ‘all these guys want to be coached’.  That makes me feel that at least outside the actual game, Dorsey has confidence in his relationship with Josh and feels that Josh respects him and listens to him.

-I think their plan at this point is to hope this was a 1 game aberration and that Josh will take accountability and correct himself

 

Time will tell.

 

Edit: 

I heard a lot of concern from Dorsey for his own play calling and for scheme to put the right guys in the right places.  So I think at the least, he feels the need to re-examine his play calling and even aspects of his play design.  As he should, but how deep or broad this is can’t say.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Beck Water

[GunnerBill]

12 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well, I guess it depends upon how you see things.  I spent my professional life looking for patterns, and especially when it came to process development, trying to figure out where when and why things went sideways, a need not necessarily best served by setting out arbitrary intervals and counting the number of failed batches within them.  That could lead you to decide "we had more failed batches since Rodomontade took over as supervisor - 8 vs. 4" - but failing to see that the number of failed batches actually spiked up at an earlier time interval and maybe we need to look at what changed right then.

 

This is frankly where my point about it being somewhat ironic for someone to talk about manipulating data to make a point comes from.  Here's what I see when I look at this "artwork":

I see that there were some early "teething pains" with Josh, where he was turnover-prone during his rookie season and into his second season.  After his 16th game, which happened to be September 29 2019 vs. NWE (4th game of his 2nd year), he really settled down and cleaned up the interceptions - UNTIL November 7, 2021, most of the way through his 4th season - that was the Jacksonville game.  Beasley was playing on what we later learned to be cracked ribs from the previous week, our OL was atrocious against the Jags pass rush, and Josh was reckless with putting himself and the ball at risk.

 

So looking at this as a process developer, I would say something changed for the better on September 29, 2019.  We know from Josh that he had some hard discussions with Beane and with McDermott about changing how he played after that game.  Then I would say something changed again on November 7, 2021 - WHILE DABOLL WAS STILL HERE.  And I would start to look at what that might be.

 

We overlook Nov and Dec of 2021 because Josh got his act together and played so splendidly in the playoffs.  But I think in hindsight, that's where the pattern started.  And I personally think Josh may have to do an exercise where he climbs a ladder and lets himself fall backwards a few dozen times, trusting some combinations of Kincaid, Sherfield, Knox and Hardy to catch him.  A "thought exercise" might be prudent here.

 

 

 

It's a fair point - that the last 19 games (i.e. the Dorsey era) is an arbitrary mark. But even if we count Jacksonville as the starting point, he had 4 multiple INT games in his last 12 under Daboll's coaching and since then it is 7 in 19. That is an uptick. It might feel like it is a relatively small change ratio wise but given the small numbers here that matters. But as you are aware, I am not particularly arguing that it is Dorsey's fault. And even if the pattern starts with Jax 2021 I would say the pattern escalates (not the right word but you take my point) with Green Bay last year. It is 6 multiple INT games in 13 since that day. That is where it basically goes from 1 in 3 or close thereto (5 in 18 post between Jax 2021 and GB 2022) to 1 in 2. 

 

I think they have to look at everything and Dorsey and his game planning is part of it, but I have to say I think it is mostly (not exclusively) Josh. I don't think he is the same guy. I didn't think he was down the stretch last year, but because the game after Green Bay was the Jets and the elbow injury I just put it down to that. I am worried now. Genuinely worried. Because I think there is something else going on. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing an elite Josh Allen performance on Sunday. Then we can take a breath and say okay it's still there let's build his confidence back up and make sure he has the right support. My concern is we will see another scratchy day where things just don't look right with our Quarterback and the people saying the fix is to give him more easy throws.... well you are right to say they were all there for him on MNF. Dorsey didn't call a perfect game, but there were plenty of chain movers there for Allen on every drive. He just was either not seeing them or deciding not to take them as he bailed clean pockets and forced balls into double / triple coverage. 

Edited September 15, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's a fair point - that the last 19 games (i.e. the Dorsey era) is an arbitrary mark. But even if we count Jacksonville as the starting point, he had 4 multiple INT games in his last 12 under Daboll's coaching and since then it is 7 in 19. That is an uptick. It might feel like it is a relatively small change ratio wise but given the small numbers here that matters. But as you are aware, I am not particularly arguing that it is Dorsey's fault. And even if the pattern starts with Jax 2021 I would say the pattern escalates (not the right word but you take my point) with Green Bay last year. It is 6 multiple INT games in 13 since that day. That is where it basically goes from 1 in 3 or close thereto (5 in 18 post between Jax 2021 and GB 2022) to 1 in 2. 

 

I think they have to look at everything and Dorsey and his game planning is part of it, but I have to say I think it is mostly (not exclusively) Josh. I don't think he is the same guy. I didn't think he was down the stretch last year, but because the game after Green Bay was the Jets and the elbow injury I just put it down to that. I am worried now. Genuinely worried. Because I think there is something else going on. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing an elite Josh Allen performance on Sunday. Then we can take a breath and say okay it's still there let's build his confidence back up and make sure he has the right support. My concern is we will see another scratchy day where things just don't look right with our Quarterback and the people saying the fix is to give him more easy throws.... well you are right to say they were all there for him on MNF. Dorsey didn't call a perfect game, but there were plenty of chain movers there for Allen on every drive. He just was either not seeing them or deciding not to take them as he bailed clean pockets and forced balls into double / triple coverage. 

 

See, this is where I find this kind of thing worth discussing, because I started out thinking we fundamentally disagreed, and I'm almost entirely on the same page with you here.

 

I agree it's relevant to look at how many bad games there are relative to total games played over an interval, and while I don't like chosing arbitrary intervals, that number appears to be increasing.  I'm also with you that I looked at the elbow injury as problematic/explanatory of problems down the stretch last season.  But we're hearing from Josh that's all healed, no problems.  Yet here we are, so....

 

And we're on the same page that the problem isn't Josh needs more chain-mover easy throws, because they're there, Josh just isn't taking them.

 

I 'm perfectly willing to believe that Daboll is a greater talent than Dorsey as a play designer.  (I also felt that at times, Daboll got way too cute with what he was trying to do, but that's a story for another day).  But as I learnt during my career, sometimes you don't need the most brilliant mind in the room working on your project; there are occasions where that helps, but there are more times when you're better served by a fundamentally sound, organized, competent worker.  I think exactly as you say - while Dorsey did make some puzzling play calls at times, Josh had competently designed and executed

"chain movers" enough to keep drives going, many of which he passed up in favor of bailing from the pocket and forcing balls into dangerous territory trying to hit the big shot and light up the scoreboard.

 

And while sure, the whole team played badly in the Bengals game, I thought that was a large part of what went on in Josh's approach to the Dolphins game (where he got away with it) and the Bengals game (where he didn't).  So it's now 3 games in a row.  Once is an occurrence, twice could be a coincidence, three times is a pattern.

 

I'm curious if you watched Dorsey's interview?  I gave my take on it above and I don't want to influence if you didn't watch it and wish to, but there were several points I found interesting there.

 

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by Beck Water

[CincyBillsFan]

15 hours ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

It's better to have an offensive head coach with a franchise QB generally. The consistency on offense is more important than consistency on defense 

The evidence increasingly supports this take.  I hope the Bills will be the exception as I like McD and appreciate what he has done for the Bills.  His culture is the difference from the 20 years spent in football purgatory.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

See, this is where I find this kind of thing worth discussing, because I started out thinking we fundamentally disagreed, and0 am almost entirely on the same page with you here.

 

I agree it's relevant to look at how many bad games there are relative to total games played over an interval, and that number appears to be increasing.  I'm also with you that I looked at the elbow injury as problematic/explanatory of problems down the stretch last season.  But we're hearing from Josh that's all healed, no problems.  Yet here we are, so....

 

And we're on the same page that the problem isn't Josh needs more chain-mover easy throws, because they're there, Josh just isn't taking them.

 

I 'm perfectly willing to believe that Daboll is a greater talent than Dorsey as a play designer.  (I also felt that at times, Daboll got way too cute with what he was trying to do, but that's a story for another day).  But as I learnt during my career, sometimes you don't need the most brilliant mind in the room working on your project; there are occasions where that helps, but there are more times when you're better served by a fundamentally sound, organized, competent worker.  I think exactly as you say - while Dorsey did make some puzzling play calls at times, Josh had "chain movers" enough to keep drives going, many of which he passed up in favor of bailing from the pocket and forcing balls into dangerous territory trying to hit the big shot and light up the scoreboard.

 

And while sure, the whole team played badly in the Bengals game, I thought that was a large part of what went on in Josh's approach to the Dolphins game (where he got away with it) and the Bengals game (where he didn't).  So it's now 3 games in a row.  Once is an occurrence, twice could be a coincidence, three times is a pattern.

 

I'm curious if you watched Dorsey's interview?  I gave my take on it above and I don't want to influence if you didn't watch it and wish to, but there were several points I found interesting there.

 

 

 

Haven't watched Dorsey's presser yet. Will try and find time to before Sunday. 

[CincyBillsFan]

20 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

See, this is where I find this kind of thing worth discussing, because I started out thinking we fundamentally disagreed, and0 am almost entirely on the same page with you here.

 

I agree it's relevant to look at how many bad games there are relative to total games played over an interval, and that number appears to be increasing.  I'm also with you that I looked at the elbow injury as problematic/explanatory of problems down the stretch last season.  But we're hearing from Josh that's all healed, no problems.  Yet here we are, so....

 

And we're on the same page that the problem isn't Josh needs more chain-mover easy throws, because they're there, Josh just isn't taking them.

 

I 'm perfectly willing to believe that Daboll is a greater talent than Dorsey as a play designer.  (I also felt that at times, Daboll got way too cute with what he was trying to do, but that's a story for another day).  But as I learnt during my career, sometimes you don't need the most brilliant mind in the room working on your project; there are occasions where that helps, but there are more times when you're better served by a fundamentally sound, organized, competent worker.  I think exactly as you say - while Dorsey did make some puzzling play calls at times, Josh had "chain movers" enough to keep drives going, many of which he passed up in favor of bailing from the pocket and forcing balls into dangerous territory trying to hit the big shot and light up the scoreboard.

 

And while sure, the whole team played badly in the Bengals game, I thought that was a large part of what went on in Josh's approach to the Dolphins game (where he got away with it) and the Bengals game (where he didn't).  So it's now 3 games in a row.  Once is an occurrence, twice could be a coincidence, three times is a pattern.

 

I'm curious if you watched Dorsey's interview?  I gave my take on it above and I don't want to influence if you didn't watch it and wish to, but there were several points I found interesting there.

 

 

I agree with a lot of this but I don't think the Dolphins game completely fits the pattern.  Allen was on fire early hitting both the gimmies and some great deep shots in staking out a 17 - 0 lead.  The drop by Knox though kept it from being 21 - 0 and the drop by Shakir late in the 2nd quarter kept it from being 24 - 6 at half.  Throw in the big punt return to et up a Dolphin TD and suddenly the game is a dog fight.

 

The pattern I'm seeing or maybe cluster is a better description given we're only talking a few games is that when things go wrong Allen gets antsy, starts pressing trying to put a dagger in the heart of an opponent the Bills should be rolling. 

 

 

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

A few thoughts:

-I think Dorsey and Joe Brady have no real clue how to effectively help Josh out of a “Sugar High Josh” superhero mindset.  Dorsey said something about “Joe does a great job” (of helping Josh on the sideline).  But I can’t recall (maybe I’m missing something) a game where Josh was making unforced error after unforced error and yet pulled it together and turned it around.  Anyone else?

 

I think last years Miami playoff game might fit the bill.  After 2 INT's and a fumble Allen snapped back into form.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's a fair point - that the last 19 games (i.e. the Dorsey era) is an arbitrary mark. But even if we count Jacksonville as the starting point, he had 4 multiple INT games in his last 12 under Daboll's coaching and since then it is 7 in 19. That is an uptick. It might feel like it is a relatively small change ratio wise but given the small numbers here that matters. But as you are aware, I am not particularly arguing that it is Dorsey's fault. And even if the pattern starts with Jax 2021 I would say the pattern escalates (not the right word but you take my point) with Green Bay last year. It is 6 multiple INT games in 13 since that day. That is where it basically goes from 1 in 3 or close thereto (5 in 18 post between Jax 2021 and GB 2022) to 1 in 2. 

 

I think they have to look at everything and Dorsey and his game planning is part of it, but I have to say I think it is mostly (not exclusively) Josh. I don't think he is the same guy. I didn't think he was down the stretch last year, but because the game after Green Bay was the Jets and the elbow injury I just put it down to that. I am worried now. Genuinely worried. Because I think there is something else going on. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing an elite Josh Allen performance on Sunday. Then we can take a breath and say okay it's still there let's build his confidence back up and make sure he has the right support. My concern is we will see another scratchy day where things just don't look right with our Quarterback and the people saying the fix is to give him more easy throws.... well you are right to say they were all there for him on MNF. Dorsey didn't call a perfect game, but there were plenty of chain movers there for Allen on every drive. He just was either not seeing them or deciding not to take them as he bailed clean pockets and forced balls into double / triple coverage. 

I would add that we can't ignore the play of the O line over this period of time.  It has been bad, real bad.  By any measure it has been a bottom ranked O line.  I can't help but remember what happened to Mahomes in that Super Bowl when his banged up line was lit up.  In fact every great QB struggles when their line is awful.  It gets in the QB's head big time. Throw in an anemic conventional running game that isn't there for Allen/Dorsey to lean on and you have the perfect recipe for the kind of football we've been seeing from Allen.

 

I wonder if people started playing us differently half way through last season when they could substantiate in the film room just how bad our O line was and how limited our collection of skill players was. And Allen, having a gunslinger personality compounds the problem in a way that more cautious QBs would not.

 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I would add that we can't ignore the play of the O line over this period of time.  It has been bad, real bad.  By any measure it has been a bottom ranked O line.  I can't help but remember what happened to Mahomes in that Super Bowl when his banged up line was lit up.  In fact every great QB struggles when their line is awful.  It gets in the QB's head big time. Throw in an anemic conventional running game that isn't there for Allen/Dorsey to lean on and you have the perfect recipe for the kind of football we've been seeing from Allen.

 

I wonder if people started playing us differently half way through last season when they could substantiate in the film room just how bad our O line was and how limited our collection of skill players was. And Allen, having a gunslinger personality compounds the problem in a way that more cautious QBs would not.

 

 

Yes I said that in one of the other threads. I think the line played pretty well on Monday (especially in pass pro) but Allen bailing clean pockets at the rate he is suggests it is mental for him now and we know, because we have seen it with other QBs before, you put them behind bad offensive lines for a long period they start to drop their eyes to the rush and bail pockets early. And the Bills have fielded bottom 10 offensive lines in 2021 and 2022. I don't think it was so much that teams started playing us differently middle of last year when the realised the line was bad so much as Josh started playing differently to try and compensate for his poor protection. I actually am pretty confident the line is improved for 2023.... not that it will be great but that it can at least be middle of the pack. We need to find a way of re-adjusting Josh to trusting his protection. That final play of overtime when he bailed a clean pocket and ran into pressure by doing so.... that is the sign of a scrambled brain. That pocket confidence and pocket poise needs rebuilding piece by piece.

 

But 100% I agree it has to be in the pot of what has gone wrong since the middle of last year and how do we fix it. 

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I agree with a lot of this but I don't think the Dolphins game completely fits the pattern.  Allen was on fire early hitting both the gimmies and some great deep shots in staking out a 17 - 0 lead.  The drop by Knox though kept it from being 21 - 0 and the drop by Shakir late in the 2nd quarter kept it from being 24 - 6 at half.  Throw in the big punt return to et up a Dolphin TD and suddenly the game is a dog fight.

 

Assuming we're both talking about the Dolphins playoff game, it was 17-17 with 33 seconds left in the half, after Allen threw 2 interceptions.  Allen played pretty well in the first half of Monday's Jets game too (and suffered a couple drops I think?) to build up a 13-3 lead at the half.

 

So I guess it depends upon what one views as 'the pattern'?  There may be more than one.

-Start with good play

-Build lead

-Make @#$@#% unforced errors, such as picks (or fumbles while extending the play or running into truble)

-Allow opponent to tie game

-Eventually pull head out of ass and play well again, but by then it may be too late.

 

14 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The pattern I'm seeing or maybe cluster is a better description given we're only talking a few games is that when things go wrong Allen gets antsy, starts pressing trying to put a dagger in the heart of an opponent the Bills should be rolling.

 

So maybe it's the "should be rolling" perception (in Allen's mind) that's the problem?  The Bills have a top of the league defense.  There's no "should" about rolling them.  And while the Dolphins defense wasn't as good last season, it was solid and focused on shutting down the Bills.

 

Again, it may depend upon one's point of view, but as Gunner pointed out, if we start with the Jax game in 2021 and count multi-turnover games, we have 12 out of 32 games or better than 1 in 3 of Josh's games have been multi-interception games.  If we start with the middle of last season - the 3 game stretch starting with the Packers where Allen threw 2 INT per game - we have 7 out of 14 games or 1 in 2 games are multi-turnover games.

 

So from one perspective, 7 games is "a few" from another - HALF the games being multi-turnover games is freakin' scary and seems to indicate an intensifying problem.   Hopefully someone is sharing these data with Josh Allen, because looking at it as 'it's just one game" might be hiding the forest.

 

14 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I think last years Miami playoff game might fit the bill.  After 2 INT's and a fumble Allen snapped back into form.

 

It's a valid point as well that McDermott deservedly praised Allen's performance on the final drive to bring the team into FG range and tie the game, forcing OT.

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's a fair point - that the last 19 games (i.e. the Dorsey era) is an arbitrary mark. But even if we count Jacksonville as the starting point, he had 4 multiple INT games in his last 12 under Daboll's coaching and since then it is 7 in 19. That is an uptick. It might feel like it is a relatively small change ratio wise but given the small numbers here that matters. But as you are aware, I am not particularly arguing that it is Dorsey's fault. And even if the pattern starts with Jax 2021 I would say the pattern escalates (not the right word but you take my point) with Green Bay last year. It is 6 multiple INT games in 13 since that day. That is where it basically goes from 1 in 3 or close thereto (5 in 18 post between Jax 2021 and GB 2022) to 1 in 2. 

 

I think they have to look at everything and Dorsey and his game planning is part of it, but I have to say I think it is mostly (not exclusively) Josh. I don't think he is the same guy. I didn't think he was down the stretch last year, but because the game after Green Bay was the Jets and the elbow injury I just put it down to that. I am worried now. Genuinely worried. Because I think there is something else going on. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing an elite Josh Allen performance on Sunday. Then we can take a breath and say okay it's still there let's build his confidence back up and make sure he has the right support. My concern is we will see another scratchy day where things just don't look right with our Quarterback and the people saying the fix is to give him more easy throws.... well you are right to say they were all there for him on MNF. Dorsey didn't call a perfect game, but there were plenty of chain movers there for Allen on every drive. He just was either not seeing them or deciding not to take them as he bailed clean pockets and forced balls into double / triple coverage. 

My point all along-  current Josh and ‘20 ‘21 Josh are not the same.  Yet that was disputed.  That could change….and hopefully will, but that’s not the point in all of this. Something isn’t right and his elbow is fine.  
 

The underlying point in this is that we need an OC that can best help him get back to 2020 Josh or better.  That may be Dorsey.  I liked the game plan on Monday but there were a handful of situational play calls that had me feeling a certain type of way.  He has the season to turn Josh back around.  It’s a tough situation to have your career in the hands of someone else, but that’s really the case here Imo. He needs to find a way to right the Josh allen ship
 

@Beck WaterI apologize if I offended you.  I tend to be blunt and to the point when things are blatantly obvious to me and my eyes.  I now realize that you were just sparking discussion, while I was just shutting it down because I didn’t think there was a discussion to be had.  

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's a fair point - that the last 19 games (i.e. the Dorsey era) is an arbitrary mark. But even if we count Jacksonville as the starting point, he had 4 multiple INT games in his last 12 under Daboll's coaching and since then it is 7 in 19. That is an uptick. It might feel like it is a relatively small change ratio wise but given the small numbers here that matters. But as you are aware, I am not particularly arguing that it is Dorsey's fault. And even if the pattern starts with Jax 2021 I would say the pattern escalates (not the right word but you take my point) with Green Bay last year. It is 6 multiple INT games in 13 since that day. That is where it basically goes from 1 in 3 or close thereto (5 in 18 post between Jax 2021 and GB 2022) to 1 in 2. 

 

I think they have to look at everything and Dorsey and his game planning is part of it, but I have to say I think it is mostly (not exclusively) Josh. I don't think he is the same guy. I didn't think he was down the stretch last year, but because the game after Green Bay was the Jets and the elbow injury I just put it down to that. I am worried now. Genuinely worried. Because I think there is something else going on. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing an elite Josh Allen performance on Sunday. Then we can take a breath and say okay it's still there let's build his confidence back up and make sure he has the right support. My concern is we will see another scratchy day where things just don't look right with our Quarterback and the people saying the fix is to give him more easy throws.... well you are right to say they were all there for him on MNF. Dorsey didn't call a perfect game, but there were plenty of chain movers there for Allen on every drive. He just was either not seeing them or deciding not to take them as he bailed clean pockets and forced balls into double / triple coverage. 

he also threw 80 fewer passes in 2022 than 2021…. So an uptick in trouble passes while a drop in overall passes thrown 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

We should just scrap Dorsey and hire Jordan Palmer as the OC. 

[Beck Water]

25 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I would add that we can't ignore the play of the O line over this period of time.  It has been bad, real bad.  By any measure it has been a bottom ranked O line.  I can't help but remember what happened to Mahomes in that Super Bowl when his banged up line was lit up.  In fact every great QB struggles when their line is awful.  It gets in the QB's head big time. Throw in an anemic conventional running game that isn't there for Allen/Dorsey to lean on and you have the perfect recipe for the kind of football we've been seeing from Allen.

 

I wonder if people started playing us differently half way through last season when they could substantiate in the film room just how bad our O line was and how limited our collection of skill players was. And Allen, having a gunslinger personality compounds the problem in a way that more cautious QBs would not.

 

I want to re-adjust this just a little bit.

 

As far as skill players - last year we had Knox, we had Cook, we had McKenzie and Shakir.  Now I'll take the point that Knox is not Kelce and Cook is not Dalvin, but Knox showed himself if anything, more capable when targeted in 2022 than in 2021 (higher catch %) but was targeted a bit less.  Cook also showed excellent Y/A rushing and excellent catch % when targeted.  McKenzie, folks love to hate him here, but he also showed a good catch % - and claimed he was open far more than targeted including against zone.  Shakir flashed at times.

 

3 of these 4 skill players are still here (and the one people love to hate is gone), so if they were insufficient last year, they are insufficient this season.  So either our scouting/player dev sucks, or the skill players aren't the real problem.

 

I don't think the problem is how limited our collection of skill players was (and is).  They aren't the greatest, but they can get open more than they're targeted.  I think the problem is that Allen developed a predictable pattern where he wouldn't throw to the skill players who were open short, or at least not until they were a last resort.  Whether his mindset is "go for the Gusto"; he didn't trust them; or he didn't trust his own arm on those throws after the UCL, don't know, but I believe that's the TENDENCY that was on film and opposing DC's could hone in on.

 

I'll bring in the pick to Davis on Monday night as an example.  I thought it was a deep to shallow read.  @HoofHearted, who has likely forgotten more football than I'll ever know, corrected me and pointed out that it was play designed to create a defensive conflict, read the conflicted defender, and throw accordingly.  OK, so why did I think that was a deep to shallow read?  Well, because when I've seen that play that I recall, Allen almost ALWAYS (seems to me) chooses the deeper read!

 

Seems to me that if you're a savvy CB  and that's a real tendency you've been coached about,  it might be pretty simple to take a step towards the shallower route to reinforce Josh's tendency, then jump the deeper route and pick the throw, like shaking a cherry tree then collecting the cherries.  And I could be wrong, but I don't think it's the first time that play/route combo has resulted in an interception.  There is at least one other, involving Davis almost always having the deeper route across the middle, that's been picked multiple times IIRC.

 

You're right of course that the O line play has been a problem.  But if Allen would choose short options more regularly so defenders couldn't just pin their ears back and so the O line wouldn't have to hold their blocks as long, I believe it would help a lot.  Does anyone else remember how putrid and non-functional the Bills o-line looked with Trent Edwards at QB the first couple games of 2010?  Then, when Fitzpatrick took over and was making prompt decisions and getting the ball out quickly, it suddenly looked, not great, but functional.  Point is, QB decision making and QB play do influence the apparent quality of the OL to us fan observers.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

he also threw 80 fewer passes in 2022 than 2021…. So an uptick in trouble passes while a drop in overall passes thrown 

 

Another good point. There was one game fewer in the end obviously (16 vs 17 regular season). 

[Beck Water]

11 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

We should just scrap Dorsey and hire Jordan Palmer as the OC. 

 

Um, No.  Palmer has no background or history suggesting he is equipped to perform as an OC or talented at it.

 

In fact, I think it's probably time (or past) for Josh to move to a different off-season mentor.

 

I think at this point, Palmer is more interested in milking Josh as the cow that's brought him a steady cash stream from appearances/new clients, than in actually performing as a QB coach and speaking hard truths to Josh that would help him continue to improve off-season

Edited September 15, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

he also threw 80 fewer passes in 2022 than 2021…. So an uptick in trouble passes while a drop in overall passes thrown 

 

Valid point.

 

15 hours ago, NoSaint said:

But seriously - if you were on tilt… is THAT the guy you’re wanting to get you right? 

 

Some people learn to come across well in an interview.  Some don't.  So I don't want to judge a man by how he appears in an interview and believe that represents how he is at his job or with people he knows.

 

It's a point that Josh stated "my career changed when he walked into the building" and lobbied for him as OC, which suggests to me that there is trust and a good interpersonal relationship there, and that Josh has in the past taken coaching from him.

 

If Josh doesn't want Dorsey as "the guy he's wanting to get him right", it was a mistake to lobby for him as OC.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Um, No.  Palmer has no background or history suggesting he is equipped to perform as an OC or talented at it.

 

In fact, I think it's probably time (or past) for Josh to move to a different off-season mentor.

 

I think Palmer is more interested in milking Josh as the cow that's brought him a steady cash stream from appearances/drawing in new clients, than in actually speaking hard truths to Josh that would help him continue to improve off-season.

I was half joking, but it’s an interesting idea. 

[HoofHearted]

16 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Agree...

 

Wrong thread (kind of) but since I have your attention and I do (most of us do) trust your insight...

 

And comments or thoughts on this? I literally just had this pop up on Twitter. I want to go back and watch the entire thing...

This isn't new. The QB run game has been drastically reduced for some time now.

[HoofHearted]

11 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

So I pretty much watched the whole thing on Youtube.

 

I don’t think the limiting Josh’s designed runs is news.  I believe McDermott and Beane both talked about it after the season.  The word Dorsey used was limiting, not taking out all together.

 

Obviously to most of us, as a means to limit Josh’s scrambles or the hits he takes when he runs, less designed runs was a “fail” last game.  It might be better to put in a couple designed runs early and get Josh some “contact” that he seems to need to settle him.

 

I’ve never known quite what to make of Dorsey’s pressers.  I didn’t like Daboll’s his first year and a half, either - I thought he improved greatly during his time here.  Part of that went with improvement in Josh’s play so he wasn’t being called on the carpet by the press, which is what this presser by Dorsey was all about.  I don’t want to conflate how a guy comes across in front of the press, with his overall professional competence or his interpersonal abilities 1:1 or with coworkers.

 

A few thoughts:

-I think Dorsey and Joe Brady have no real clue how to effectively help Josh out of a “Sugar High Josh” superhero mindset.  Dorsey said something about “Joe does a great job” (of helping Josh on the sideline).  But I can’t recall (maybe I’m missing something) a game where Josh was making unforced error after unforced error and yet pulled it together and turned it around.  Anyone else?

-Likewise I think they have no idea how to limit Josh’s running or persuade him to get down or go OOB and take fewer hits.  It reminds me of a story where a French nobleman asked the King to intervene on behalf of another nobleman and the King response “I will do what I can for you; I will pray that he leave you alone”.  I think all they can do is continue to point it out, and hope Josh absorbs it and makes changes.

-Dorsey sounded most sincere when he said he had all the confidence in the world in Josh and when he said ‘all these guys want to be coached’.  That makes me feel that at least outside the actual game, Dorsey has confidence in his relationship with Josh and feels that Josh respects him and listens to him.

-I think their plan at this point is to hope this was a 1 game aberration and that Josh will take accountability and correct himself

 

Time will tell.

 

Edit: 

I heard a lot of concern from Dorsey for his own play calling and for scheme to put the right guys in the right places.  So I think at the least, he feels the need to re-examine his play calling and even aspects of his play design.  As he should, but how deep or broad this is can’t say.

 

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's a fair point - that the last 19 games (i.e. the Dorsey era) is an arbitrary mark. But even if we count Jacksonville as the starting point, he had 4 multiple INT games in his last 12 under Daboll's coaching and since then it is 7 in 19. That is an uptick. It might feel like it is a relatively small change ratio wise but given the small numbers here that matters. But as you are aware, I am not particularly arguing that it is Dorsey's fault. And even if the pattern starts with Jax 2021 I would say the pattern escalates (not the right word but you take my point) with Green Bay last year. It is 6 multiple INT games in 13 since that day. That is where it basically goes from 1 in 3 or close thereto (5 in 18 post between Jax 2021 and GB 2022) to 1 in 2. 

 

I think they have to look at everything and Dorsey and his game planning is part of it, but I have to say I think it is mostly (not exclusively) Josh. I don't think he is the same guy. I didn't think he was down the stretch last year, but because the game after Green Bay was the Jets and the elbow injury I just put it down to that. I am worried now. Genuinely worried. Because I think there is something else going on. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing an elite Josh Allen performance on Sunday. Then we can take a breath and say okay it's still there let's build his confidence back up and make sure he has the right support. My concern is we will see another scratchy day where things just don't look right with our Quarterback and the people saying the fix is to give him more easy throws.... well you are right to say they were all there for him on MNF. Dorsey didn't call a perfect game, but there were plenty of chain movers there for Allen on every drive. He just was either not seeing them or deciding not to take them as he bailed clean pockets and forced balls into double / triple coverage. 

To both of your points. Dorsey is absolutely a more aggressive play caller than Daboll is. That being said there are very few times where I see a concept called that is just plain bad to what the defense is giving them coverage-wise. I think we saw Dorsey take another step this past week in his use of personnel. We played a ton of 12 personnel, but not in conventional 12 personnel sets. There's a lot of really good things we can do out of those sets, and a lot of really good things we did do out of those sets that make things extremely hard on a defense and the personnel they choose to put out on the field. The advantages that can be gained in match-ups are endless so I'm encouraged to see that continue to grow throughout the season.

 

I do think that a big thing that isn't really being talked about is the fact that Dorsey calls it from the box unlike Daboll who was on the field for a large portion of his time here (I feel like there was a time he called from the box as well? Can't remember). Josh needs someone to reel him in when he starts getting wild. Daboll was not afraid to do that. I remember multiple times seeing Josh getting his butt ripped by Daboll on the sideline. I don't recall ever seeing Brady do this, but I do think Dorsey would if he were on the field. I wonder if having that OC presence on the field would help reel Josh in a little more. On the flip side - how much does that impact Dorsey's ability to call a game though.

[Mr. WEO]

39 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

We should just scrap Dorsey and hire Jordan Palmer as the OC. 

 

F Jordan Palmer already.   The guy's a hustler, I'll give him that.  But he doesn't need to interject his brand here.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

F Jordan Palmer already.   The guy's a hustler, I'll give him that.  But he doesn't need to interject his brand here.

Sorry. I didn’t know you felt so strongly about this. 

[NoSaint]

34 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Valid point.

 

 

Some people learn to come across well in an interview.  Some don't.  So I don't want to judge a man by how he appears in an interview and believe that represents how he is at his job or with people he knows.

 

It's a point that Josh stated "my career changed when he walked into the building" and lobbied for him as OC, which suggests to me that there is trust and a good interpersonal relationship there, and that Josh has in the past taken coaching from him.

 

If Josh doesn't want Dorsey as "the guy he's wanting to get him right", it was a mistake to lobby for him as OC.

fair. Though I’ll lobby back… 

 

is Dorsey in the 3rd quarter calling plays and perhaps on tilt himself the same energy as Dorsey on the sideline with him 2 years ago? 

 

Is Joe Brady filling those shoes on the sideline? 

[CincyBillsFan]

50 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I want to re-adjust this just a little bit.

 

As far as skill players - last year we had Knox, we had Cook, we had McKenzie and Shakir.  Now I'll take the point that Knox is not Kelce and Cook is not Dalvin, but Knox showed himself if anything, more capable when targeted in 2022 than in 2021 (higher catch %) but was targeted a bit less.  Cook also showed excellent Y/A rushing and excellent catch % when targeted.  McKenzie, folks love to hate him here, but he also showed a good catch % - and claimed he was open far more than targeted including against zone.  Shakir flashed at times.

 

3 of these 4 skill players are still here (and the one people love to hate is gone), so if they were insufficient last year, they are insufficient this season.  So either our scouting/player dev sucks, or the skill players aren't the real problem.

 

I don't think the problem is how limited our collection of skill players was (and is).  They aren't the greatest, but they can get open more than they're targeted.  I think the problem is that Allen developed a predictable pattern where he wouldn't throw to the skill players who were open short, or at least not until they were a last resort.  Whether his mindset is "go for the Gusto"; he didn't trust them; or he didn't trust his own arm on those throws after the UCL, don't know, but I believe that's the TENDENCY that was on film and opposing DC's could hone in on.

 

I'll bring in the pick to Davis on Monday night as an example.  I thought it was a deep to shallow read.  @HoofHearted, who has likely forgotten more football than I'll ever know, corrected me and pointed out that it was play designed to create a defensive conflict, read the conflicted defender, and throw accordingly.  OK, so why did I think that was a deep to shallow read?  Well, because when I've seen that play that I recall, Allen almost ALWAYS (seems to me) chooses the deeper read!

 

Seems to me that if you're a savvy CB  and that's a real tendency you've been coached about,  it might be pretty simple to take a step towards the shallower route to reinforce Josh's tendency, then jump the deeper route and pick the throw, like shaking a cherry tree then collecting the cherries.  And I could be wrong, but I don't think it's the first time that play/route combo has resulted in an interception.  There is at least one other, involving Davis almost always having the deeper route across the middle, that's been picked multiple times IIRC.

 

You're right of course that the O line play has been a problem.  But if Allen would choose short options more regularly so defenders couldn't just pin their ears back and so the O line wouldn't have to hold their blocks as long, I believe it would help a lot.  Does anyone else remember how putrid and non-functional the Bills o-line looked with Trent Edwards at QB the first couple games of 2010?  Then, when Fitzpatrick took over and was making prompt decisions and getting the ball out quickly, it suddenly looked, not great, but functional.  Point is, QB decision making and QB play do influence the apparent quality of the OL to us fan observers.

I disagree about the skills players and the O line but you make a good case.  My understanding is that O line rankings do take into account QB play.  And way to often there was immediate pressure up the middle or around the right end, whch makes it hard to execute a short passing game.

 

I also would submit that the stats of our skill players not named Diggs can be misleading.  Many of Knox & McKenzie's production can be directly attributed to Allen's ability to move around and make big plays off script. 

 

To be clear I'm not saying these are the only or even primary reasons we're seeing Allen struggle, at times, since the middle of last season.  I suspect like a lot of things there are multiple causes and IMO these two are among those causes.  The relative contribution of each remains to be determined.

 

 

[NewEra]

On 9/14/2023 at 7:32 AM, NewEra said:

Allen and Diggs are the best pitch and catch duo in the league. That’s what happens when you have a pair like that.  You score.

 

I’m not saying Dorsey isn’t worthy (although I might be in a few weeks).   I just think our scoring has much more to do with Allen/Diggs than Dorsey’s concepts, scheme, play calling. 

Right…. But let’s not act like the current Josh allen is the same josh allen we saw under Daboll

 

On 9/14/2023 at 7:55 AM, Beck Water said:

 

Isn't he?

 

Josh Allen was a noted Wild Man in 2018 and 2019 - under Daboll.

 

In 2019 Game 4 vs NE, Josh threw 3 INT and had a fumble - under Daboll.  Josh has said there were "come to Jesus" meetings and he changed.

In 2020 Game 5 vs Tenn, Josh threw 2 INT.   Passer rating 'eh', but that was a bad game for Josh.

In 2021, Josh had 2 games with passer ratings (not total QBR, passer) below 65 - Jacksonville (62.7: 0 TD 2 INT, 1 fumble) and Atlanta (17: 0 TD 3 INT)

 

In 2022, Josh had 8 regular season games with a passer rating over 100, 7 games with 0 turnovers, and 6 games with a manageable 1 (total 13)

 

I think there's a bit of recency bias in believing Josh was uniformly focused, buttoned up and dedicated under Daboll and "is not the same" under Dorsey.  Josh has had some very very good, 'buttoned up' games under Dorsey. 

 

But I also think it's clear that something is amiss the last handful of games played, and Josh has fallen prey to some "stinkin' thinkin' ".  So then the question becomes, can Dorsey and Judge get him back on track?  And I don't know. 

 

Another point to consider: Daboll had the teaching of Josh at a different point in his career.  Don't overlook the difference between mentoring a raw prospect on his first contract who is motivated to prove he can "make it" as a top player in the NFL, vs mentoring a QB who is on the cover of Madden, has endorsements all over the place, and would cost the team $118M in dead money to move on - even if it's the same man doing the mentoring.

 

Ok, roll your eyes at my apology.  
 

No, current Josh is NOT the same and you’ve said as much in the rest of this thread.  Yet still decided to argue my point

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Assuming we're both talking about the Dolphins playoff game, it was 17-17 with 33 seconds left in the half, after Allen threw 2 interceptions. 

 

As I recall the Bills went up 17 - 0 (should have been 21 - 0 but Knox dropped a TD). 

 

* The Dolphins then put together a FG drive to make it 17 - 3. 

 

* Then Allen throws a deep INT that Miami turns into a FG to cut the lead to 17 - 6. That was an unforced error on Allen's part.

 

* Then Allen throws a perfect 55 yard strike to Shakir with less then 2 minutes left putting the ball at the 16.  But the pass was dropped.  The Bills punted and it was run back 50+ yards setting up the Dolphins 3rd FG to cut the lead to 17 - 9.

 

* Allen throws his 2nd INT.  I would not call that throw ill advised as it bounced off Beasley's chest.  Miami scores to tie the game 17 - 17.

 

* Allen leads the Bills to a last second FG to go up 20 - 17 at half.

 

*  Allen gives up a fumble TD on a play he should have saw the blitz but that was also a great play by the defender.

 

*  Allen then gets hot and closes out the win with 2 TD's.

 

It seems like this was more of a weird game then an example of Allen struggling as his numbers were quite good in total. 

 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

McKenzie, folks love to hate him here, but he also showed a good catch % 

 

Just FYI. McKenzie had a drop % greater than 30% in a quarter of the games he played last season. 

He was also 44% on the season for contested catches. 

 

 

 

[Dan in Owego]

He should have kept his mouth shut, but he like his own voice too much, certainly didn't help his boy with this take.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Dan in Owego

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, HoofHearted said:

 

To both of your points. Dorsey is absolutely a more aggressive play caller than Daboll is. That being said there are very few times where I see a concept called that is just plain bad to what the defense is giving them coverage-wise. I think we saw Dorsey take another step this past week in his use of personnel. We played a ton of 12 personnel, but not in conventional 12 personnel sets. There's a lot of really good things we can do out of those sets, and a lot of really good things we did do out of those sets that make things extremely hard on a defense and the personnel they choose to put out on the field. The advantages that can be gained in match-ups are endless so I'm encouraged to see that continue to grow throughout the season.

 

I do think that a big thing that isn't really being talked about is the fact that Dorsey calls it from the box unlike Daboll who was on the field for a large portion of his time here (I feel like there was a time he called from the box as well? Can't remember). Josh needs someone to reel him in when he starts getting wild. Daboll was not afraid to do that. I remember multiple times seeing Josh getting his butt ripped by Daboll on the sideline. I don't recall ever seeing Brady do this, but I do think Dorsey would if he were on the field. I wonder if having that OC presence on the field would help reel Josh in a little more. On the flip side - how much does that impact Dorsey's ability to call a game though.

 

Dabes was in the box in 2020 and 2021. I don't think he callee a game from the field after 2019.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

My point all along-  current Josh and ‘20 ‘21 Josh are not the same.  Yet that was disputed.  That could change….and hopefully will, but that’s not the point in all of this. Something isn’t right and his elbow is fine.  
 

The underlying point in this is that we need an OC that can best help him get back to 2020 Josh or better.  That may be Dorsey.  I liked the game plan on Monday but there were a handful of situational play calls that had me feeling a certain type of way.  He has the season to turn Josh back around.  It’s a tough situation to have your career in the hands of someone else, but that’s really the case here Imo. He needs to find a way to right the Josh allen ship
 

@Beck WaterI apologize if I offended you.  I tend to be blunt and to the point when things are blatantly obvious to me and my eyes.  I now realize that you were just sparking discussion, while I was just shutting it down because I didn’t think there was a discussion to be had.  

 

First of all, I don't think that's quite the point  you were making all along, or at least, not a clearly communicated point.  I would agree that the Josh we are seeing now, and the Josh of 2020/1st half 2021 and actually, 1st 6-ish games of 2022 are not the same.

 

We both agree that Josh's elbow is supposed to be fine, but something else is wrong and I think there's a point that unfortunately it may be an escalating problem

 

"It's not a deep to shallow read, it's reading the conflict defender" "do you understand curl flat?" or even "No way, totally disagree" "what are you looking at?" is blunt.  I love that stuff.  I actually live to be put straight here by some of our more knowledgable posters because it's how I learn more,

 

If I left you in doubt that I found stuff like  "Are you even watching the games?" "Spend less time on stats, they aren't helping you" "the artwork you posted" (about a data graph) were considered offensive (not blunt), I must have expressed myself kinda poorly.  I do very much appreciate the gesture of the apology, so thanks for that.

 

I do have a tendency to illustrate the joke "why does a (member of ethnic group) always answer a question with a question?" "why shouldn't they answer a question with a question?" in real life, and I can see how that could look like overlooking your question, instead of trying to address it in a different way.

 

All good here.

 

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

As I recall the Bills went up 17 - 0 (should have been 21 - 0 but Knox dropped a TD). 

 

* The Dolphins then put together a FG drive to make it 17 - 3. 

 

* Then Allen throws a deep INT that Miami turns into a FG to cut the lead to 17 - 6. That was an unforced error on Allen's part.

 

* Then Allen throws a perfect 55 yard strike to Shakir with less then 2 minutes left putting the ball at the 16.  But the pass was dropped.  The Bills punted and it was run back 50+ yards setting up the Dolphins 3rd FG to cut the lead to 17 - 9.

 

* Allen throws his 2nd INT.  I would not call that throw ill advised as it bounced off Beasley's chest.  Miami scores to tie the game 17 - 17.

 

* Allen leads the Bills to a last second FG to go up 20 - 17 at half.

 

*  Allen gives up a fumble TD on a play he should have saw the blitz but that was also a great play by the defender.

 

*  Allen then gets hot and closes out the win with 2 TD's.

 

It seems like this was more of a weird game then an example of Allen struggling as his numbers were quite good in total. 

 

 

Good synopsis.  We mostly agree on the descriptions except that I thought the throw to Beasley was ill-advised - Beasley had the DB draped all over him like a blanket, and the DB got his hand in there to deflect the ball, I thought.

 

For the conclusions, I guess what I'd say is that there are different ways to look at it. 

 

One way is to say, Bills won, Allen put up yards and threw TDs, so it's not an example of Allen struggling (I hope that's a decent paraphrase).  Another way to look at it is to say, there seems to be potentially a systematic problem with Allen's judgement and some of the throws he's choosing to make.  Even we win, it allows teams to stay in it, stick around, and take the game down to the wire.  So it should be seen as a symptom of struggling, even if his overall numbers are good.

 

Edit: I'd like to add that I think you made your case well for this game as an example of Josh struggling, then turning it around and getting hot.

 

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, HoofHearted said:

 

To both of your points. Dorsey is absolutely a more aggressive play caller than Daboll is. That being said there are very few times where I see a concept called that is just plain bad to what the defense is giving them coverage-wise. I think we saw Dorsey take another step this past week in his use of personnel. We played a ton of 12 personnel, but not in conventional 12 personnel sets. There's a lot of really good things we can do out of those sets, and a lot of really good things we did do out of those sets that make things extremely hard on a defense and the personnel they choose to put out on the field. The advantages that can be gained in match-ups are endless so I'm encouraged to see that continue to grow throughout the season.

 

I do think that a big thing that isn't really being talked about is the fact that Dorsey calls it from the box unlike Daboll who was on the field for a large portion of his time here (I feel like there was a time he called from the box as well? Can't remember). Josh needs someone to reel him in when he starts getting wild. Daboll was not afraid to do that. I remember multiple times seeing Josh getting his butt ripped by Daboll on the sideline. I don't recall ever seeing Brady do this, but I do think Dorsey would if he were on the field. I wonder if having that OC presence on the field would help reel Josh in a little more. On the flip side - how much does that impact Dorsey's ability to call a game though.

 

Thanks for sharing your views on Dorsey as a play caller and how situationally appropriate he is.   I hope that the 12 personnel and creative use continue, and Josh continues to gain trust and get more comfortable with Kincaid.  We do need a change, offensively.

 

I could always be wrong, but I'm pretty sure Daboll moved to the box in 2019 after the NE game Week 4 in which Josh had 4 TO (3 INT and a fumble) and Daboll was seen screaming in his face on the sideline.  I don't think Daboll was ever on the sideline again, so your memories of Josh getting his butt ripped by Daboll would be from 2018 and the first quarter of 2019.  (I'm not saying that incident is the reason why Daboll moved to the box, I believe there were concerns with late play calls and hope that having the birds-eye-view would help Daboll see more and be able to choose plays more quickly.)

 

Judging by results, I think Dorsey must have been effective at reeling Josh in on the sideline the rest of 2019, 2020, and at least part of 2021, and judging by stuff Morse has said about "the Holy Spirit comes out of him, and you don't want to receive it" I don't think Dorsey was saying "Dear Joshua Patrick, Pretty Please Don't do That". 😈

 

In Dorsey's presser, one of the things that drew my side-eye was Dorsey saying that Joe Brady "does a good job" helping Josh and steadying him on the sideline.  My gut reaction was "Oh?  Then what would a Bad Job look like?"

 

Question for people who attended last season's home games: any observation on how much of the time Brady and/or the backup QB are actually with Josh on the sideline during the game?

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

fair. Though I’ll lobby back… 

 

is Dorsey in the 3rd quarter calling plays and perhaps on tilt himself the same energy as Dorsey on the sideline with him 2 years ago? 

 

Is Joe Brady filling those shoes on the sideline? 

 

I think these are both very fair and good questions.

 

I don't know.

 

Maybe we can get someone who was at the game or had a good watch at the all 22 to answer, but my impression is that there wasn't anything fundamentally amiss about the 3rd Q play calling (ie Dorsey "on tilt").  I think Josh just "lost contain" on himself and got impatient.

Reeeeealy good question about Joe Brady