Historical Perspective of QB Running Game Contribution in Playoffs

[Dr.Sack]

8 playoff games in to his career Josh Allen has accounted for 47% of the Bills running yards, 417 of 883 total rush yards.

 

This is staggering amount for any QB. For QBs who have started 8 or more playoff games, no QB has ever run for more than 43 yards per game. Allen is at 52. The next closest is Steve Young at 42. This is astonishing when considering the fact Allen ranks #3 in passing yards per game 291.75, beyond only Drew Brees 298.11, and Kurt Warner 304. 

 

Compare Allen's stats to his Patrick Mahomes. In 14 career playoff games Mahomes has accounted for 20% of the Chiefs rushing yards, 383 of 1312 total rush yards. 

 

The Chiefs offense has averaged 24.07 rushes per game, 121.07yards and 1.21 TDs.

The Chiefs defense has averaged 24.29 / 112.86 / 1.07 TDs.

 

The Bills offense has averaged 22.88 / 110.38 / .75 TDs.

The Bills defense has averages 27.63 / 131.63 / 1.00 TDs.

 

Can we expect the compliment of Damien Harris, Lativous Murray, and James Cook to account for 80% of the Bills playoff rush yards similar to what Mahomes enjoys?

 

Will the offseason investments made in our IOL help improve the running game come playoff time?

 

Will the addition of Poona Ford help the Bills defense clamp down on the run and cut the opposing offenses rush game?

[BBFL]

11 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

8 playoff games in to his career Josh Allen has accounted for 47% of the Bills running yards, 417 of 883 total rush yards.

 

This is staggering amount for any QB. For QBs who have started 8 or more playoff games, no QB has ever run for more than 43 yards per game. Allen is at 52. The next closest is Steve Young at 42. This is astonishing when considering the fact Allen ranks #3 in passing yards per game 291.75, beyond only Drew Brees 298.11, and Kurt Warner 304. 

 

Compare Allen's stats to his Patrick Mahomes. In 14 career playoff games Mahomes has accounted for 20% of the Chiefs rushing yards, 383 of 1312 total rush yards. 

 

The Chiefs offense has averaged 24.07 rushes per game, 121.07yards and 1.21 TDs.

The Chiefs defense has averaged 24.29 / 112.86 / 1.07 TDs.

 

The Bills offense has averaged 22.88 / 110.38 / .75 TDs.

The Bills defense has averages 27.63 / 131.63 / 1.00 TDs.

 

Can we expect the compliment of Damien Harris, Lativous Murray, and James Cook to account for 80% of the Bills playoff rush yards similar to what Mahomes enjoys?

 

Will the offseason investments made in our IOL help improve the running game come playoff time?

 

Will the addition of Poona Ford help the Bills defense clamp down on the run and cut the opposing offenses rush game?

Honestly think you have to continue to use Josh the way they have with the exception of so many QB sneaks. He has way too much value and talent that can overload a defense when he’s used in a mobile manner. 
And That’s where Murray and/or Harris will have their best value. Josh just has to be smarter with how a play is finished… “Make a business decision” is the proverbial phrase. 

[Southern_Bills]

Poona will definitely help our run D IMO. I don't see how that's questionable barring injury.

 

I think Harris and Murray can help Josh, but at the same time Josh wants to break and run sometimes, it's his defense mechanism Vs. Sitting in the pocket waiting to get hit if no one is open.

 

So I'm not sure you will get Mahomes like numbers, but could definitely reduce the QB power plays you see in the red zone. 

[CSBill]

15 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

8 playoff games in to his career Josh Allen has accounted for 47% of the Bills running yards, 417 of 883 total rush yards.

 

This is staggering amount for any QB. For QBs who have started 8 or more playoff games, no QB has ever run for more than 43 yards per game. Allen is at 52. The next closest is Steve Young at 42. This is astonishing when considering the fact Allen ranks #3 in passing yards per game 291.75, beyond only Drew Brees 298.11, and Kurt Warner 304. 

 

Compare Allen's stats to his Patrick Mahomes. In 14 career playoff games Mahomes has accounted for 20% of the Chiefs rushing yards, 383 of 1312 total rush yards. 

 

The Chiefs offense has averaged 24.07 rushes per game, 121.07yards and 1.21 TDs.

The Chiefs defense has averaged 24.29 / 112.86 / 1.07 TDs.

 

The Bills offense has averaged 22.88 / 110.38 / .75 TDs.

The Bills defense has averages 27.63 / 131.63 / 1.00 TDs.

 

Can we expect the compliment of Damien Harris, Lativous Murray, and James Cook to account for 80% of the Bills playoff rush yards similar to what Mahomes enjoys?

 

Will the offseason investments made in our IOL help improve the running game come playoff time?

 

Will the addition of Poona Ford help the Bills defense clamp down on the run and cut the opposing offenses rush game?

 

Staggering! Astonishing?

 

This reminded me of what my friend, Mr. Mark Twian (an NFL GM for the Canton Bulldogs, way back in the day) once said:

 

"Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

[T master]

15 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

8 playoff games in to his career Josh Allen has accounted for 47% of the Bills running yards, 417 of 883 total rush yards.

 

This is staggering amount for any QB. For QBs who have started 8 or more playoff games, no QB has ever run for more than 43 yards per game. Allen is at 52. The next closest is Steve Young at 42. This is astonishing when considering the fact Allen ranks #3 in passing yards per game 291.75, beyond only Drew Brees 298.11, and Kurt Warner 304. 

 

Compare Allen's stats to his Patrick Mahomes. In 14 career playoff games Mahomes has accounted for 20% of the Chiefs rushing yards, 383 of 1312 total rush yards. 

 

The Chiefs offense has averaged 24.07 rushes per game, 121.07yards and 1.21 TDs.

The Chiefs defense has averaged 24.29 / 112.86 / 1.07 TDs.

 

The Bills offense has averaged 22.88 / 110.38 / .75 TDs.

The Bills defense has averages 27.63 / 131.63 / 1.00 TDs.

 

Can we expect the compliment of Damien Harris, Lativous Murray, and James Cook to account for 80% of the Bills playoff rush yards similar to what Mahomes enjoys?

 

Will the offseason investments made in our IOL help improve the running game come playoff time?

 

Will the addition of Poona Ford help the Bills defense clamp down on the run and cut the opposing offenses rush game?

 

That's exactly what the Bills offense has been missing as Jim Kelly said they can't expect josh to do it all !! I have wanted the Bills to get a bigger back to compliment motor since before they drafted Moss & there have been a few that turned out to be very good .

 

Drafting RB is Beanes kryptonite I hope bringing in Murray & Harris he has hit the mark because although the "Experts" & even some here say that RB's are a dime a dozen i don't agree because if that were the fact the Bills would have been good up to now & they haven't .

 

Every SB or championship winning team has had 1 back at least that they can count on to carry the rock when they need it . Just like ST's & defense the running game is a integral piece of winning you can be a pass first team but you have to have a good or above average running game & RB to win championships .

[PBF81]

17 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

8 playoff games in to his career Josh Allen has accounted for 47% of the Bills running yards, 417 of 883 total rush yards.

 

This is staggering amount for any QB. For QBs who have started 8 or more playoff games, no QB has ever run for more than 43 yards per game. Allen is at 52. The next closest is Steve Young at 42. This is astonishing when considering the fact Allen ranks #3 in passing yards per game 291.75, beyond only Drew Brees 298.11, and Kurt Warner 304. 

 

Compare Allen's stats to his Patrick Mahomes. In 14 career playoff games Mahomes has accounted for 20% of the Chiefs rushing yards, 383 of 1312 total rush yards. 

 

The Chiefs offense has averaged 24.07 rushes per game, 121.07yards and 1.21 TDs.

The Chiefs defense has averaged 24.29 / 112.86 / 1.07 TDs.

 

The Bills offense has averaged 22.88 / 110.38 / .75 TDs.

The Bills defense has averages 27.63 / 131.63 / 1.00 TDs.

 

Can we expect the compliment of Damien Harris, Lativous Murray, and James Cook to account for 80% of the Bills playoff rush yards similar to what Mahomes enjoys?

 

Will the offseason investments made in our IOL help improve the running game come playoff time?

 

Will the addition of Poona Ford help the Bills defense clamp down on the run and cut the opposing offenses rush game?

 

If I understand that correctly the team averages are playoff games featuring Allen and Mahomes for their respective teams.  

 

Here's the thing, let's strip off the QB rushing performance from both teams during the playoffs, and I'm sure to some extent it mirrors the regular season.  

 

Subtracting 20% from KC's playoff rushing production we're left with about ... 

 

19.3 carries for 97 yards and 1 TD

 

Subtracting 47% from our playoff rushing production we're left with about ... 

 

12.1 carries for 58.5 yards and .4 TDs  

 

What not everyone seems to understand is that our running game has less to do with talent at RB than it does with utilization.  (AHEM, ... coaching decisions)  

 

IMO we're going to regret letting singletary go.  Had we allowed Singletary, who's not even in his prime, to get 50% more carries last season, assuming that his ypc avg had been the same, he'd have finished with 265 carries for 1,228 rushing yards, and 7 or 8 TDs.  That would have been good for 6th in carries and 6th in rushing yardage.  He also would have finished 8th for RBs in yards-from-scrimmage.  

 

Who else finished with that stat line or close?  ... Dalvin Cook, who's in his prime, finished with 264 / 1,173 / 8 and everyone seems to want him here.  

 

Harris and Murry aren't as good as Singletary, neither is as versatile, and Murray's past-prime.  We'll find that out.  But at the end of the day, if you don't use them, you're not going to get the production from not using them.  One doesn't have to be a football guru to understand that, it's common sense, yet, it's something that our offensive coaching staff and quite possibly McD himself haven't come to grips with.  

 

To add a little perspective, if Harris gets the same 177 carries, based upon his 4.4 ypc last season behind a better OL, he'd log 779 rushing yards here.  Would that cause everyone to say "yeah, great move by Beane?"  

 

It's pretty plain and simple really.  Allen's looking at a significantly curtailed career unless it changes soon, and as I see it we're very fortunate that he hasn't sustained a serious injury in that way.  

 

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by PBF81

[BringBackFlutie]

Where are the numbers in the OP coming from? I looked up leaders in passing yards per game, for a career, in the playoffs, and Allen isn't on the list.

 

Actually. He is on the list, but #5.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_per_g_career_playoffs.htm

Edited May 15, 2023 by BringBackFlutie

[PBF81]

17 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

Where are the numbers in the OP coming from? I looked up leaders in passing yards per game, for a career, in the playoffs, and Allen isn't on the list.

 

Actually. He is on the list, but #5.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_per_g_career_playoffs.htm

 

I haven't looked, but it's quite possible that they made a mistake.  I've pointed a couple out over the years, one fairly recently, a simple clerical error, which they corrected quickly.  They're really good with that.  

 

Here are Allen's playoff #s tho;  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/gamelog/post/  

 

Here are the team's playoff #s;  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/playoffs.htm  

 

I wish I had time to sort them out, I've gotta get outta here though.  On a quick glance tho, Allen's got 63 carrries for 417 yards and 2 rushing TDs in his 8 PO games. The team has in those same 8 games has 884 total rushing yards if my (very quick) math is on.  417/884 = 47%.  

 

I would run the same analysis using only '20 - '22 tho.  Allen was a shell of himself in '19.  

 

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by PBF81

[colin]

2 hours ago, T master said:

 

That's exactly what the Bills offense has been missing as Jim Kelly said they can't expect josh to do it all !! I have wanted the Bills to get a bigger back to compliment motor since before they drafted Moss & there have been a few that turned out to be very good .

 

Drafting RB is Beanes kryptonite I hope bringing in Murray & Harris he has hit the mark because although the "Experts" & even some here say that RB's are a dime a dozen i don't agree because if that were the fact the Bills would have been good up to now & they haven't .

 

Every SB or championship winning team has had 1 back at least that they can count on to carry the rock when they need it . Just like ST's & defense the running game is a integral piece of winning you can be a pass first team but you have to have a good or above average running game & RB to win championships .

 

 

honestly -- i heard JK say that and i figured he was just a bit old school.

 

then after reams of offseason data, analysis, and the above OP, it's pretty flipping clear we simply don't run the ball well enough, especially late in the year/playoffs.

 

allen is the entire team way way way too often.  if nothing changes on O except we bridge the gap in terms of RB production between us and KC as shown above in this thread, that puts us pretty strongly on a super bowl run.

[hondo in seattle]

19 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

8 playoff games in to his career Josh Allen has accounted for 47% of the Bills running yards, 417 of 883 total rush yards.

 

This is staggering amount for any QB. For QBs who have started 8 or more playoff games, no QB has ever run for more than 43 yards per game. Allen is at 52. The next closest is Steve Young at 42. This is astonishing when considering the fact Allen ranks #3 in passing yards per game 291.75, beyond only Drew Brees 298.11, and Kurt Warner 304. 

 

Compare Allen's stats to his Patrick Mahomes. In 14 career playoff games Mahomes has accounted for 20% of the Chiefs rushing yards, 383 of 1312 total rush yards. 

 

The Chiefs offense has averaged 24.07 rushes per game, 121.07yards and 1.21 TDs.

The Chiefs defense has averaged 24.29 / 112.86 / 1.07 TDs.

 

The Bills offense has averaged 22.88 / 110.38 / .75 TDs.

The Bills defense has averages 27.63 / 131.63 / 1.00 TDs.

 

Can we expect the compliment of Damien Harris, Lativous Murray, and James Cook to account for 80% of the Bills playoff rush yards similar to what Mahomes enjoys?

 

Will the offseason investments made in our IOL help improve the running game come playoff time?

 

Will the addition of Poona Ford help the Bills defense clamp down on the run and cut the opposing offenses rush game?

 

Yeah, I don't think we should eliminate Josh's role as a runner.  He's too valuable.  But he's not valuable if he gets hurt.   So I think Dorsey should not call any designed QB runs in most regular season games.  We should save Josh-the-runner for big games/playoffs.  

[Ta111]

22 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Yeah, I don't think we should eliminate Josh's role as a runner.  He's too valuable.  But he's not valuable if he gets hurt.   So I think Dorsey should not call any designed QB runs in most regular season games.  We should save Josh-the-runner for big games/playoffs.  

I know people keep saying he should run less because of risk of injury, but I find it interesting that his only injuries as a pro have come when he wasn’t running but in the pocket.

[Mynamemike]

20 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

8 playoff games in to his career Josh Allen has accounted for 47% of the Bills running yards, 417 of 883 total rush yards.

 

This is staggering amount for any QB. For QBs who have started 8 or more playoff games, no QB has ever run for more than 43 yards per game. Allen is at 52. The next closest is Steve Young at 42. This is astonishing when considering the fact Allen ranks #3 in passing yards per game 291.75, beyond only Drew Brees 298.11, and Kurt Warner 304. 

 

Compare Allen's stats to his Patrick Mahomes. In 14 career playoff games Mahomes has accounted for 20% of the Chiefs rushing yards, 383 of 1312 total rush yards. 

 

The Chiefs offense has averaged 24.07 rushes per game, 121.07yards and 1.21 TDs.

The Chiefs defense has averaged 24.29 / 112.86 / 1.07 TDs.

 

The Bills offense has averaged 22.88 / 110.38 / .75 TDs.

The Bills defense has averages 27.63 / 131.63 / 1.00 TDs.

 

Can we expect the compliment of Damien Harris, Lativous Murray, and James Cook to account for 80% of the Bills playoff rush yards similar to what Mahomes enjoys?

 

Will the offseason investments made in our IOL help improve the running game come playoff time?

 

Will the addition of Poona Ford help the Bills defense clamp down on the run and cut the opposing offenses rush game?

I seem to find myself saying at least once a game, he’s just special. Running and throwing he combines the best of both elements.  I’ve conceded that he’s not going to change his playing style and I’m ok with it.  I don’t see him playing past 35  with the abuse his body takes.  

 

I just think you limit his potential if you tske away his running on both designed plays and on scrambles. 

 

[Dr.Sack]

14 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said:

Where are the numbers in the OP coming from? I looked up leaders in passing yards per game, for a career, in the playoffs, and Allen isn't on the list.

 

Actually. He is on the list, but #5.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_per_g_career_playoffs.htm

I pulled the numbers from PFR and omitted QBs with 7 or less playoff starts as Allen has 8.

[Doc Brown]

12 hours ago, Ta111 said:

I know people keep saying he should run less because of risk of injury, but I find it interesting that his only injuries as a pro have come when he wasn’t running but in the pocket.

It's more a matter of when (not if) he'll get hurt taking those extra hits on QB runs.  He did suffer that concussion against the Pats in 2019 on a scramble trying to bulldoze his way for a first down on a 3rd and long.  

 

My hope is we can put enough around him to make him less reliant on his legs like in 2020 where he had above average pass protection along with WR options outside and in the slot that could create separation quick in Diggs/Beasley (before the latter fell off a cliff in 2021).  The addition of Kinkaid, Hardy, Sherfield, Torrence, and McGovern along with the "hope" that Brown will break out in year three will hopefully provide that.  That's a lot of "ifs" though.

[LABILLBACKER]

16 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

If I understand that correctly the team averages are playoff games featuring Allen and Mahomes for their respective teams.  

 

Here's the thing, let's strip off the QB rushing performance from both teams during the playoffs, and I'm sure to some extent it mirrors the regular season.  

 

Subtracting 20% from KC's playoff rushing production we're left with about ... 

 

19.3 carries for 97 yards and 1 TD

 

Subtracting 47% from our playoff rushing production we're left with about ... 

 

12.1 carries for 58.5 yards and .4 TDs  

 

What not everyone seems to understand is that our running game has less to do with talent at RB than it does with utilization.  (AHEM, ... coaching decisions)  

 

IMO we're going to regret letting singletary go.  Had we allowed Singletary, who's not even in his prime, to get 50% more carries last season, assuming that his ypc avg had been the same, he'd have finished with 265 carries for 1,228 rushing yards, and 7 or 8 TDs.  That would have been good for 6th in carries and 6th in rushing yardage.  He also would have finished 8th for RBs in yards-from-scrimmage.  

 

Who else finished with that stat line or close?  ... Dalvin Cook, who's in his prime, finished with 264 / 1,173 / 8 and everyone seems to want him here.  

 

Harris and Murry aren't as good as Singletary, neither is as versatile, and Murray's past-prime.  We'll find that out.  But at the end of the day, if you don't use them, you're not going to get the production from not using them.  One doesn't have to be a football guru to understand that, it's common sense, yet, it's something that our offensive coaching staff and quite possibly McD himself haven't come to grips with.  

 

To add a little perspective, if Harris gets the same 177 carries, based upon his 4.4 ypc last season behind a better OL, he'd log 779 rushing yards here.  Would that cause everyone to say "yeah, great move by Beane?"  

 

It's pretty plain and simple really.  Allen's looking at a significantly curtailed career unless it changes soon, and as I see it we're very fortunate that he hasn't sustained a serious injury in that way.  

 

 

Very true. Josh absolutely must reduce the designed runs and sneaks. It's a sure fire way of shortening his career. Let him scrabble once the pocket collapses, but start letting your new OL carve some holes for Cook, Harris & Murray.  Dorsey must create a better identity for this team. More balance and a little less chucking it downfield. 

[PBF81]

10 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Very true. Josh absolutely must reduce the designed runs and sneaks. It's a sure fire way of shortening his career. Let him scrabble once the pocket collapses, but start letting your new OL carve some holes for Cook, Harris & Murray.  Dorsey must create a better identity for this team. More balance and a little less chucking it downfield. 

 

Yup, but IMO it's going to be a more difficult task w/o Singletary, who was a much more versatile RB than Harris is, and frankly, a better rusher too generally speaking.  Harris repertoire is pretty limited.  

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Of all the times of the year I would actually be perfectly fine with Allen accounting for over 40% of our rushing yards it would be the playoffs.
 

What we need is for him to run far less in the regular season. And then let them loose and catch teams by surprise in the playoffs.

 

it would be nice if his rushing attempts in the regular season were cut in half.

[The Jokeman]

On 5/15/2023 at 6:47 AM, T master said:

 

That's exactly what the Bills offense has been missing as Jim Kelly said they can't expect josh to do it all !! I have wanted the Bills to get a bigger back to compliment motor since before they drafted Moss & there have been a few that turned out to be very good .

 

Drafting RB is Beanes kryptonite I hope bringing in Murray & Harris he has hit the mark because although the "Experts" & even some here say that RB's are a dime a dozen i don't agree because if that were the fact the Bills would have been good up to now & they haven't .

 

Every SB or championship winning team has had 1 back at least that they can count on to carry the rock when they need it . Just like ST's & defense the running game is a integral piece of winning you can be a pass first team but you have to have a good or above average running game & RB to win championships .

Super Bowl LVI, the Rams won with Cam Akers getting 21 yards on 11 carries. As bad as the Bills have had running the ball they aren't that bad. Say what you want but there is no "rule" anymore as to what can win and lose these days. It's just a matter of timing as most games nowadays are won or lost on a handful of single plays. 

[Billl]

Not sure what the take-away of it is, but I'm postseason victories, Josh averages 36 rushing yards per game.  In losses he averages 69 yards.  That could mean that he runs more out of desperation, or it could mean that he's trying to do too much.  Like most things, it's probably a little bit of both.