A QB and Coaching thought exercise

[Chaos]

I am a huge Josh Allen fan. I think if you put him on any NFL team, the minimum expecation for that team would be to make the playoffs.  The expectation for more than half the teams would be to advance to the divisional playoff round.  For each of the current final four teams, the expecation if Allen was their QB would be super bowl appearance minimum.  He is an NFL force of nature.  
 

On a long drive yesterday the people in the car were discussing what would have happened in each of our games in two different scenarios. One swap our components QB with Allen.   The second scenario (separate from the first) is how would we have faired if we swapped game day coaches. 

This is an approximate summary of our discussion:

 

We concluded swapping coaches would have likely resulted in the Bills winning the three regular season games we lost.  We could not agree on whether swapping Taylor and McDermott alone, would have led to a playoff win for the Bills.  I think it would have because I can't imagine Bills coaching figuring out how to defend Burrows with the make shift o line. But others thought we were so dominated that that would not have been enough. 

On the swap Allen alone side of the ledger, there were 8 games we felt the Bills actually won that we would have lost if QBs were swapped.  We had some pretty bad QB opponents, and its hard to see the Frazier offense stopping Allen on most teams. 

People will certainly have different opinions.  But I would be most interested in which specific games you disagree with our speculation. 

Side note:  Bitter that the Bills are not playing today
 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Chaos

[Nextmanup]

Josh has put this team on his back many times and won the game for the team.

He has also lost the game for the team a few times, usually with his "sugar high" mistakes and turnovers.

 

Don't ask me to name the games or count them, I don't remember which was which! 

 

Josh's good outweighs his bad and overall, he's more than good enough to win a SB, so why evaluate beyond that?

 

If your post is a way of saying we would benefit from SMARTER, BETTER in-game coaching, I couldn't agree more with you.  I have been beating that drum since McDermott came here....and Dorsey should be replaced THIS offseason.

 

They can either do it NOW, or NEXT YEAR, after another burned year in Josh's window.

 

 

[US Egg]

So let’s pretend the opposing coach had coached the Bills?

 

Can we do that next with QB’s?
 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

I am a huge Josh Allen fan. I think if you put him on any NFL team, the minimum expecation for that team would be to make the playoffs.  The expectation for more than half the teams would be to advance to the divisional playoff round.  For each of the current final four teams, the expecation if Allen was their QB would be super bowl appearance minimum.  He is an NFL force of nature.  
 

On a long drive yesterday the people in the car were discussing what would have happened in each of our games in two different scenarios. One swap our components QB with Allen.   The second scenario (separate from the first) is how would we have faired if we swapped game day coaches. 

This is an approximate summary of our discussion:

 

We concluded swapping coaches would have likely resulted in the Bills winning the three regular season games we lost.  We could not agree on whether swapping Taylor and McDermott alone, would have led to a playoff win for the Bills.  I think it would have because I can't imagine Bills coaching figuring out how to defend Burrows with the make shift o line. But others thought we were so dominated that that would not have been enough. 

On the swap Allen alone side of the ledger, there were 8 games we felt the Bills actually won that we would have lost if QBs were swapped.  We had some pretty bad QB opponents, and its hard to see the Frazier offense stopping Allen on most teams. 

People will certainly have different opinions.  But I would be most interested in which specific games you disagree with our speculation. 

Side note:  Bitter that the Bills are not playing today
 

So bills coaching is net equal or negative as compared to every team they played? That’s funny. 

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

I am a huge Josh Allen fan. I think if you put him on any NFL team, the minimum expecation for that team would be to make the playoffs.  The expectation for more than half the teams would be to advance to the divisional playoff round.  For each of the current final four teams, the expecation if Allen was their QB would be super bowl appearance minimum.  He is an NFL force of nature.  
 

On a long drive yesterday the people in the car were discussing what would have happened in each of our games in two different scenarios. One swap our components QB with Allen.   The second scenario (separate from the first) is how would we have faired if we swapped game day coaches. 

This is an approximate summary of our discussion:

 

We concluded swapping coaches would have likely resulted in the Bills winning the three regular season games we lost.  We could not agree on whether swapping Taylor and McDermott alone, would have led to a playoff win for the Bills.  I think it would have because I can't imagine Bills coaching figuring out how to defend Burrows with the make shift o line. But others thought we were so dominated that that would not have been enough. 

On the swap Allen alone side of the ledger, there were 8 games we felt the Bills actually won that we would have lost if QBs were swapped.  We had some pretty bad QB opponents, and its hard to see the Frazier offense stopping Allen on most teams. 

People will certainly have different opinions.  But I would be most interested in which specific games you disagree with our speculation. 

Side note:  Bitter that the Bills are not playing today
 

Here’s another thought process for you
 

Put Josh Allen on the Bengals, throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and tee Higgins and throwing against our defense

 

Imagine Josh Allen throwing to wide-open wide, receivers all day sitting behind a line, they gave him all kinds of protection, and was opening up holes for the running game for Joe Mixon

 

How do you think Josh would’ve fared

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Well that was a waste of 2 minutes reading. 

 

I think the takeaway was Chaos doesn't like Sean McDermott. 

 

I recommend playing shag, marry, kill on your next long car journey.

Edited January 29, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Well that was a waste of 2 minutes reading. 

 

I think the takeaway was Chaos doesn't like Sean McDermott. 

 

I recommend playing shag, marry, kill on your next long car journey.

Bit harsh. McDermott should go, and Beane too, depending on this draft. If he's still at it with terrible first and second round picks.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Bit harsh. McDermott should go, and Beane too, depending on this draft. If he's still at it with terrible first and second round picks.

 

 

You can go on the same journey.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You can go on the same journey.

So, can I count you thrilled with the outcome of the process?

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

So, can I count you thrilled with the outcome of the process?

 

You can count me as not being ready to declare Saleh, McDaniel and O'Connell better coaches than McDermott - yes.

 

The process is frayed at the edges. But it isn't ready for the trash. The regime is still, for now, the right one.

[Ya Digg?]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You can count me as not being ready to declare Saleh, McDaniel and O'Connell better coaches than McDermott - yes.

 

The process is frayed at the edges. But it isn't ready for the trash. The regime is still, for now, the right one.

Yeah I don’t get all of the love for Saleh and McDaniel, not sure how flipping those coaches would have gotten the Bills a win in those games. What has Saleh shown in his 2 years that makes him as great a coach as people claim? Look at what happened to McDaniel as soon as someone figured out how to stop his offense! 

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Josh has put this team on his back many times and won the game for the team.

He has also lost the game for the team a few times, usually with his "sugar high" mistakes and turnovers.

 

Don't ask me to name the games or count them, I don't remember which was which! 

 

Josh's good outweighs his bad and overall, he's more than good enough to win a SB, so why evaluate beyond that?

 

If your post is a way of saying we would benefit from SMARTER, BETTER in-game coaching, I couldn't agree more with you.  I have been beating that drum since McDermott came here....and Dorsey should be replaced THIS offseason.

 

They can either do it NOW, or NEXT YEAR, after another burned year in Josh's window.

 

 

Would love to get the games Allen has lost us

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

25 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Here’s another thought process for you
 

Put Josh Allen on the Bengals, throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and tee Higgins and throwing against our defense

 

Imagine Josh Allen throwing to wide-open wide, receivers all day sitting behind a line, they gave him all kinds of protection, and was opening up holes for the running game for Joe Mixon

 

How do you think Josh would’ve fared

 

 

 

 The difference between the Bengals and the Bills is Joe is never been asked to carry the Bengals in the postseason. He's never asked to do more than his fair share. In 6 playoff games Burrow has less passing tds than Allen did in just 2 games last year(8 vs 9). Their offense has averaged just 23 ppg in the playoffs, never scoring more than 27 in any game and yet they're 5-1.

 

 It's because their defense has given up an average of only 18 ppg and never surrendering more than 24 points in those games. Last year their fg kicker was 14/14 on fgs. Burrow receives far more help than Allen does in the playoffs and is never asked to be super human.

 

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You can count me as not being ready to declare Saleh, McDaniel and O'Connell better coaches than McDermott - yes.

 

The process is frayed at the edges. But it isn't ready for the trash. The regime is still, for now, the right one.

Follow up question:

 

When do you bin the regime? What's it gonna take 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Follow up question:

 

When do you bin the regime? What's it gonna take 

It's too late imo

 

Just have to hope Allen can carry them to one before he retires at this point

[Chaos]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Well that was a waste of 2 minutes reading. 

 

I think the takeaway was Chaos doesn't like Sean McDermott. 

 

I recommend playing shag, marry, kill on your next long car journey.

Your response is truly useless. 

5 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 The difference between the Bengals and the Bills is Joe is never been asked to carry the Bengals in the postseason. He's never asked to do more than his fair share. In 6 playoff games Burrow has less passing tds than Allen did in just 2 games last year(8 vs 9). Their offense has averaged just 23 ppg in the playoffs, never scoring more than 27 in any game and yet they're 5-1.

 

 It's because their defense has given up an average of only 18 ppg and never surrendering more than 24 points in those games. Last year their fg kicker was 14/14 on fgs. Burrow receives far more help than Allen does in the playoffs and is never asked to be super human.

 

 

 

A main point is that there is literally (in the real use of the world literally) no possible meaningful increase in production from the QB position for the Bills.  We need to pray he can continue at this level. (This is also true of the Chiefs).  If the coaching staff can't get it together to win championships with Allen as QB, they will not be capable with any QB. True story. 

1 hour ago, I am the egg man said:

So let’s pretend the opposing coach had coached the Bills?

 

Can we do that next with QB’s?
 

50% of the original post is about QB's.  not sure what your point is. 

[US Egg]

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Your response is truly useless.

…..like many of your threads.

[Chaos]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It's too late imo

 

Just have to hope Allen can carry them to one before he retires at this point

Allen has the height and arm and brain to transition to a pure pocket passer as he ages.  We realistically have 10 more years of high end QB play from Allen.   Best case scenario, McDermott wins multiple super bowls with Allen, starting next year.  Worst case scenario, we are Jeff Fishered with McDermott. 

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

On the swap Allen alone side of the ledger, there were 8 games we felt the Bills actually won that we would have lost if QBs were swapped.  

 

Keep in mind that without our Allen-led offense, opposing offenses would have scored much more and logged more yards than they did due to our inability to stay on the field offensively.  

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Follow up question:

 

When do you bin the regime? What's it gonna take 

 

When I think it had run its course. I understand why others are there. I am not. 

 

But Chaos could have just said "this a thread saying I want McDermott out" rather than the pseudo thought process nonsense.

[LABILLBACKER]

55 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Here’s another thought process for you
 

Put Josh Allen on the Bengals, throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and tee Higgins and throwing against our defense

 

Imagine Josh Allen throwing to wide-open wide, receivers all day sitting behind a line, they gave him all kinds of protection, and was opening up holes for the running game for Joe Mixon

 

How do you think Josh would’ve fared

 

 

The bottom line is Josh is a once in a lifetime generational talent. He's asked by his coaches to be 85% of the offense based on his surrounding support system. Josh with all his amazing athletic ability does his best to be Superman.  But the coaching asking this of him is both foolish,  selfish and unsustainable. The goal for every team should go beyond settling for playoff appearances. 

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Allen has the height and arm and brain to transition to a pure pocket passer as he ages.  We realistically have 10 more years of high end QB play from Allen.   Best case scenario, McDermott wins multiple super bowls with Allen, starting next year.  Worst case scenario, we are Jeff Fishered with McDermott. 

 

I don't think that Allen's going to be running the way he does in ten years, not even close.  I'll give him five, six tops of that.  Keep in mind too that because he has to do everything, he's a lot more likely to get injured.  He suffered one this year, due more to crap OL play, but still, we're lucky, he's lucky, that it hasn't been a knee or shoulder.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

When I think it had run its course. I understand why others are there. I am not. 

 

But Chaos could have just said "this a thread saying I want McDermott out" rather than the pseudo thought process nonsense.

Why are you not there? What indicators keep you from being there 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Allen has the height and arm and brain to transition to a pure pocket passer as he ages.  We realistically have 10 more years of high end QB play from Allen.   Best case scenario, McDermott wins multiple super bowls with Allen, starting next year.  Worst case scenario, we are Jeff Fishered with McDermott. 

You won't find a bigger Josh Allen fan than me, but I have totally lost faith in the coaching to find that outcome. They are in the process of Cam Newtoning him.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

So bills coaching is net equal or negative as compared to every team they played? That’s funny. 

 

Well, we were outcoached by the Jets, twice, as they outplayed us but had inferior talent generally speaking.  At QB it wasn't even close.  

[Chaos]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I don't think that Allen's going to be running the way he does in ten years, not even close.  I'll give him five, six tops of that.  Keep in mind too that because he has to do everything, he's a lot more likely to get injured.  He suffered one this year, due more to crap OL play, but still, we're lucky, he's lucky, that it hasn't been a knee or shoulder.  

 Ten years is based on this supposition. 

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Chaos

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You won't find a bigger Josh Allen fan than me, but I have totally lost faith in the coaching to find that outcome. They are in the process of Cam Newtoning him.

 

Or more likely getting him injured so that he's a fraction of the player he was after 18 months (if lucky if that were to occur) of rehab.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Why are you not there? What indicators keep you from being there 

 

They keep winning. Their consistency keeps things on track in dealing with the adversity that any season (let alone this one) throws at them. The underlying analytics on the team's performance continue to be strong. Yes, they have failed to get the team over the hump in the post-season - but they have come back each time and gone again without ill effects. 

 

I get that there are questions. I think there is less credit in the bank than there was but I don't see them as having done so poorly that they must go and so it would take me to be convinced I had a clear upgrade available to me.

[US Egg]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But Chaos could have just said "this a thread saying I want McDermott out" rather than the pseudo thought process nonsense.

I thought it meant KAOS wants to switch HC’s with certain teams when he feels McD is the inferior HC.

[Big Turk]

I don't see what the point of this is?  You can never actually play the games or situations in real life so this is all nonsense that is made up in your mind with no way of ever proving anyone right or wrong.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Big Turk said:

I don't see what the point of this is?  You can never actually play the games or situations in real life so this is all nonsense that is made up in your mind with no way of ever proving anyone right or wrong.

 

It is a "Fire McDermott" thread pretending to have some more substance behind it.

[PBF81]

9 minutes ago, Chaos said:

 Ten years is based on this supposition. 

 

 

FWIW I agree with you.  

 

On Allen, my point is twofold.  

 

First, that his running/scrambling/etc. is a huge part of his game.  As a pure pocket passer in contrast, frankly, I'd rather have Burrow, or even Mahomes.  

 

Secondly, implied, that he doesn't have the OL to be able to play to that level as a pure pocket passer.  That's due to the GM/HC deficiencies here contrasted with there and elsewhere, at least the four teams that are playing today.  

[Chaos]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

FWIW I agree with you.  

 

On Allen, my point is twofold.  

 

First, that his running/scrambling/etc. is a huge part of his game.  As a pure pocket passer in contrast, frankly, I'd rather have Burrow, or even Mahomes.  

 

Secondly, implied, that he doesn't have the OL to be able to play to that level as a pure pocket passer.  That's due to the GM/HC deficiencies here contrasted with there and elsewhere, at least the four teams that are playing today.  

We don't know how good of a pocket passer he could be. We can't coach up a pocket. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a "Fire McDermott" thread pretending to have some more substance behind it.

Apparently ANYONE except McD could have coached this team to an undefeated season.  And breaking news, Josh is a top 5 QB.  There must be some subliminal bashing of Edmunds somewhere in there too 😂.

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

We don't know how good of a pocket passer he could be. We can't coach up a pocket. 

 

Sure you can.  Do you believe that our OL was coached as well as it could have been?  I don't.  In fact, I don't have any faith that ANY unit on our team has been optimally coached.  

 

Having said that, I understand what you're saying, but part of my point, a big part, is that the talent on the team around him, or even on D as the team goes, in this specific discussion the OL, makes a huge difference.  Again, as you know.  

 

We do know that in the instances where he has had time in the pocket, he's still made questionable decisions, routinely ignored the higher percentage underneath stuff that log 1st Downs and keep the chains moving.  Just sayin'.  

[Chaos]

4 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Apparently ANYONE except McD could have coached this team to an undefeated season.  And breaking news, Josh is a top 5 QB.  There must be some subliminal bashing of Edmunds somewhere in there too 😂.

That is not what the original post says. 

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

Sure you can.  Do you believe that our OL was coached as well as it could have been?  I don't.  In fact, I don't have any faith that ANY unit on our team has been optimally coached.  

 

Having said that, I understand what you're saying, but part of my point, a big part, is that the talent on the team around him, or even on D as the team goes, in this specific discussion the OL, makes a huge difference.  Again, as you know.  

 

We do know that in the instances where he has had time in the pocket, he's still made questionable decisions, routinely ignored the higher percentage underneath stuff that log 1st Downs and keep the chains moving.  Just sayin'.  

can'y as in haven't. Not dismissing the future possibilty of creating a consistent passing pocket. 

[PBF81]

BTW, there have been some games, not a lot, but where he's been a fantastic pocket passer.  But he's not like Mahomes or Burrow in that regard.  

 

Remember, when they drafted Allen all they talked about was his huge/strong arm, and ability to make any throw.  No one ever mentioned any potential for him to run as he did, not once.  So that's gravy, unearned gravy, for Beane and to a lesser extent McD.  

 

But here's the thing on "the ability to make any throw," he shouldn't be ignoring the higher percentage throws regularly in favor of "any throw."  This isn't a video game.  That's what I'm referring to when I talk about coaching as it relates to him and a methodology in terms of running the offense.  

 

And if it ever got to a point where the coaches were desperately trying to get him to hit that underneath and short/medium higher percentage stuff and he was simply ignoring them, that'd be a whole other discussion.  I don't think that's where we are tho.  Do you?  

[GoBills808]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a "Fire McDermott" thread pretending to have some more substance behind it.

It's a valid question. If the premise offends you there's no obligation to participate.

[PBF81]

6 minutes ago, Chaos said:

can't as in haven't. Not dismissing the future possibilty of creating a consistent passing pocket. 

 

Fair enough, but does anything in the organization now, after 6 years of McD being here and 5 Beane orchestrated Drafts suggest to you that this is in the offing?   

Edited January 29, 2023 by PBF81

[HappyDays]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think there is less credit in the bank than there was but I don't see them as having done so poorly that they must go and so it would take me to be convinced I had a clear upgrade available to me.

 

My take on it is that Ben Johnson looks like the NFL's next offensive genius, on the same level as Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan. I believe he will get his shot as a head coach after this coming season. If we have a similar disappointing playoff result next year I would not be shy about moving on from this regime and get the upstart young offensive genius in the building. Allen will be entering his age 28 season in 2024 so there is plenty of time for an offensive minded coach to get him a Super Bowl. The clock is ticking on Allen's career. If this regime can't even sniff a Super Bowl appearance after 4 years of elite QB play that is reason enough to move on IMO.

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by HappyDays