How did Allen not dominate in college?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Late bloomer

He was also terrible in his first nfl year

[RobbRiddick]

1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

My sarcasm above aside, Bob, this is just so ridiculous now...meaning, I've watched a number of videos of him from his high school days and even his JC days...it is truly baffling why not one of these colleges or universities, besides Wyoming, wouldn't at least take a flyer on the kid.  

 

No one...No one out there said to themselves, "Yeah, he's raw, but he is good.  He has the tools and some fight in his belly.  let's see."?!

 

 

I don't watch college ball so when the pre-draft stuff was going on I went and watched a bunch of film (not just highlights) people had put on YouTube. It came down to Mayfield or Allen for me, mainly because I liked the fire they had (the arm strength was big as well).

 

There was one game where Wyoming won right at the end when Allen threw a TD and he was getting in his linemen's faces, screaming and you could see by the way they were responding that he was a total leader. That was when I really decided I would love to see him in a Bills uniform

4 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Late bloomer

He was also terrible in his first nfl year

I don't think he was terrible, more wildly inconsistent. After he came back from injury he had more bad games but also had some good ones and started to lean on his running a lot more. He also made some stunning throws and even (if I remember correctly) won an offensive player of the week. I'm pretty sure most Bills fans could see he was going to become a great player, not the level he's reached of course, but definitely a franchise QB. He definitely passed the eye test, and he did all that with an historically bad O-line and Benjamin, Jones and Foster as his WRs

[dollars 2 donuts]

10 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

I don't watch college ball so when the pre-draft stuff was going on I went and watched a bunch of film (not just highlights) people had put on YouTube. It came down to Mayfield or Allen for me, mainly because I liked the fire they had (the arm strength was big as well).

 

There was one game where Wyoming won right at the end when Allen threw a TD and he was getting in his linemen's faces, screaming and you could see by the way they were responding that he was a total leader. That was when I really decided I would love to see him in a Bills uniform

I don't think he was terrible, more wildly inconsistent. After he came back from injury he had more bad games but also had some good ones and started to lean on his running a lot more. He also made some stunning throws and even (if I remember correctly) won an offensive player of the week. I'm pretty sure most Bills fans could see he was going to become a great player, not the level he's reached of course, but definitely a franchise QB. He definitely passed the eye test, and he did all that with an historically bad O-line and Benjamin, Jones and Foster as his WRs

 

 

Robb, not only great points, but if you don't mind I would like to join in on your second comment with respect to him being inconsistent.

 

I agree, but everybody has to remember (we do, but outside of here they don't) that even when they picked him seventh even fans of his in the media said he was a project QB who needed to sit for a year.

 

...which turned into him becoming the starter less than 1 half into his first NFL game.  😁

 

Additionally, after he came back from being injured in that Atlanta game he was different...just plain different.  Sure, he didn't go undefeated, but he was more composed and was seeing the field a little better.  He still took his lumps in year two, but obviously ticked up as did his team to 10-6 and...oh boy...those of us who were fortunate enough to see him play that final game of his first year against Miami saw something special. 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[Albany,n.y.]

7 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Late bloomer

He was also terrible in his first nfl year

He was not terrible in his 1st year.  Stat boys will say that but nobody who watched him play every game and took into consideration who was around him would say that if they are in the visual fan column.  He was basically QBing a 2-14 team, yet his record as a starter was 5-6 and one of those loses was a game Peterman came in & lost for the Bills.  He showed flashes of brilliance from his 2nd start on. He willed the Bills to victory in half the games he started & finished. I never considered him terrible and had all the confidence in the world he'd lead the Bills to a lot of wins in his 2nd season after watching him play as a rookie.  In fact, I cashed a bunch of future bets on the Bills in 2019 because I knew I didn't see terrible in 2018.  

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Wasn't it Bleacher Report or The Athletic that said Allen working would fly in the face of every scouting report ever done before, or defy all analytical methods for him turning out good? 

 

Not the Athletic I think, but there were a ton.  Here's Josh Allen reading some of the mean tweets.

 

Someone called him a "joke of a first round draft pick" - I think that was the Football Outsiders guy, Sal Capaccio hands him receipts on Twitter when, like a bunch of these guys, he tries to waffle and say he really wasn't that negative.  Yes, you were.

 

Sam Monson was another one - to his credit he has apologized.  He called Josh an "Ikea QB" and said "there's a big box there and inside are all the parts you need to create this franchise QB, but you're going to have to put it together yourself, and I don't know if the instruction manual will do you a lot of good.  It's in a foreign language, it's not helpful".  He said Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen were already complete good QB.

 

Here is a selection:

 

Jason Kirk writing for SuperBowl Nation

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

It's titled "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself"

 

Quote

There’s never been a bigger disconnect between what the NFL apparently thinks and what the armchair analysts think.

 

Personnel people see a prototype athlete whose flaws they can correct, while fans, statisticians, tape-grinders of varying expertise, and most media people see a flawed athlete with a prototypical shape.

 

He’s a project. Coaches, scouts, and the most prominent mock drafters disagree to extreme degree with eggheads, less prominent mock drafters, and the public on how many tuneups he needs, though.

 

In the end, somebody’s gonna be wrong.

 

If Allen succeeds, he’ll be a major statistical outlier, no matter how deeply into the numbers you go.

 

 

 

Seth Galina writing for FLOFootball:

https://www.flofootball.com/articles/6165467-forget-the-first-pick-josh-allen-shouldnt-even-be-in-the-first-round

 

Quote

Forget The First Pick, Josh Allen Shouldn’t Even Be In The First Round

Josh Allen has been riding high atop draft board for quite some time, but it’s actually very difficult to defend those sorts of expectations.

 

Draft Josh Allen first overall in the CFL. Draft him first overall in your flag football league. Bring the NFL Europe back and put him there. But, for the love of football, don’t pick him first overall in the NFL draft.

 

It’s very hard to find any reason why Allen should go in the top half of the upcoming draft other than his raw athletic talent—which is highly irrelevant when playing quarterback, by the way.

 

Now, you could say, “That’s just your opinion, Seth.” But it’s not just my opinion. It’s the opinion of many others. It’s also based on this actual quantifiable measure known, in some circles, as “statistics.”

 

Ben Solak of NDT Scouting, Contextualized Quarterbacking fame:

https://www.ndtscouting.com/solak-2018-senior-bowl-contextualized-quarterbacking-available/

 

Quote

But the risks he takes when asked to process beyond his first or second read or under pressure are absurd, and he can not be trusted on an NFL field due to his sporadic ball placement.....he is simply not yet an NFL QB

 

Vinny Iyer of The Sporting News said:

https://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nfl-draft-2018-grades-winners-losers-best-worst-broncos-bills-seahawks/1wkh3jasql60m16rspf25mvqqd

Quote

Buffalo Bills: D

Draft picks: QB Josh Allen (Wyoming), OLB Tremaine Edmunds (Virginia Tech), DT Harrison Phillips (Stanford), CB Taron Johnson (Weber State), S Siran Neal (Jacksonville State), G Wyatt Teller (Virginia Tech), WR Ray-Ray McCloud (Clemson), WR Austin Proehl (North Carolina)

Edmunds and Phillips were the standout picks for Sean McDermott's front seven in his first draft with Brandon Beane. But this grade is based on the fact that Allen is likely to be a big-armed bust. The QB wasn't worth the trade, especially at the cost of two second-rounders. The Bills drafted like a team set to return to the playoffs; their glaring weaknesses on the offensive line and at wide receiver should have been addressed earlier. QB desperation is never a good way to draft, and it led to a chain reaction that gave Allen and AJ McCarron little support.

 

and of course, Jalen Ramsey calling Josh a "waste of a draft pick" and a "joke"

https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2022/09/09/jalen-ramsey-josh-allen-trash-comments-gq-rams-bills-blowout

 

[damj]

I blame The Man

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

18 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

I don't watch college ball so when the pre-draft stuff was going on I went and watched a bunch of film (not just highlights) people had put on YouTube. It came down to Mayfield or Allen for me, mainly because I liked the fire they had (the arm strength was big as well).

 

There was one game where Wyoming won right at the end when Allen threw a TD and he was getting in his linemen's faces, screaming and you could see by the way they were responding that he was a total leader. That was when I really decided I would love to see him in a Bills uniform

I don't think he was terrible, more wildly inconsistent. After he came back from injury he had more bad games but also had some good ones and started to lean on his running a lot more. He also made some stunning throws and even (if I remember correctly) won an offensive player of the week. I'm pretty sure most Bills fans could see he was going to become a great player, not the level he's reached of course, but definitely a franchise QB. He definitely passed the eye test, and he did all that with an historically bad O-line and Benjamin, Jones and Foster as his WRs

in the nfl inconsistency is terrible. He completed 52% of his passes.  That’s terrible. Picks fumbles QBR in the 60s. Terrible. It’s ok, I’m sure he’d tell you that too. 
 

The next season he was still below average and inconsistent.  It wasn’t until year 3 that he was clearly going to be a franchise qb. 

 

it is no surprise at all he wasn’t great in college. He was extremely raw and it is a testament to how much work he has put in since  and how far he has come and how big of a risk the front office took at the time. 

Edited October 20, 2022 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[US Egg]

5 hours ago, Bandito said:

And we can flip this topic around. How did so many players dominate in college then stink it up in the pros. Would be an interesting discussion.

…..and a long list.

[RobbRiddick]

5 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

Additionally, after he came back from being injured in that Atlanta game he was different...just plain different.  Sure, he didn't go undefeated, but he was more composed and was seeing the field a little better.  He still took his lumps in year two, but obviously ticked up as did his team to 10-6 and...oh boy...those of us who were fortunate enough to see him play that final game of his first year against Miami saw something special. 

 

 

 

They mentioned something on WGR a couple weeks ago and it was something I never realized. His rushing stats in the first half and second half of his rookie year and hugely different and really show how they benefitted his game overall. I guess a big part of it was that teams had to respect it and that gave him more opportunities in the passing game, plus as we see now he's a maniac and seems to play better after he's broken someone's ankles or trucked them.

 

Pre-injury he logged rushing numbers of:

 

26

32

39

19

19

20

 

Then...

after he came back from injury he did this:

 

99

135

101

16

30

95

 

Also, looking at the stats now, he threw for 200+ yards only once pre-injury, which was the chargers game when I guess a lot came in garbage time.

 

Post-injury he topped 200 5 times. 200+ yard games aren't anything to rave about but it shows his improvement.

 

[MJS]

He was always raw as a prospect and never got proper coaching on fundamentals till the pros. It took him a bit to catch up.

[billsintaiwan]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Not the Athletic I think, but there were a ton.  Here's Josh Allen reading some of the mean tweets.

 

Someone called him a "joke of a first round draft pick" - I think that was the Football Outsiders guy, Sal Capaccio hands him receipts on Twitter when, like a bunch of these guys, he tries to waffle and say he really wasn't that negative.  Yes, you were.

 

Sam Monson was another one - to his credit he has apologized.  He called Josh an "Ikea QB" and said "there's a big box there and inside are all the parts you need to create this franchise QB, but you're going to have to put it together yourself, and I don't know if the instruction manual will do you a lot of good.  It's in a foreign language, it's not helpful".  He said Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen were already complete good QB.

 

Here is a selection:

 

Jason Kirk writing for SuperBowl Nation

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

It's titled "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself"

 

 

 

 

Seth Galina writing for FLOFootball:

https://www.flofootball.com/articles/6165467-forget-the-first-pick-josh-allen-shouldnt-even-be-in-the-first-round

 

 

Ben Solak of NDT Scouting, Contextualized Quarterbacking fame:

https://www.ndtscouting.com/solak-2018-senior-bowl-contextualized-quarterbacking-available/

 

 

Vinny Iyer of The Sporting News said:

https://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nfl-draft-2018-grades-winners-losers-best-worst-broncos-bills-seahawks/1wkh3jasql60m16rspf25mvqqd

 

and of course, Jalen Ramsey calling Josh a "waste of a draft pick" and a "joke"

https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2022/09/09/jalen-ramsey-josh-allen-trash-comments-gq-rams-bills-blowout

 

I'm a professional baseball scout and the easiest thing in the world to do is to ***** on a prospect. You'll be right almost all the time. People have had jobs out here in Asia for years doing just that. 

 

But I will tell you (and I'm just a bills fan, never played, don't know the game in depth like some on here do), that I was never more excited than when we drafted Josh Allen. My baseball analogy is Randy Johnson, everything was there, you could see it, but it never worked until he was twenty six or some such. But when it started to work, there were very few comparable talents. 

 

I applaud beane as a GM because there were easier calls. He could have taken the easy way out, but he put it all on the line. That was an old school scouting call in a stat driven zeitgeist. 

[Buffalo716]

5 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Not even looking at the passing stats college vs. pros, the more surprising thing to me is Allen actually seems more dangerous as a runner at the NFL level than he was at the college level. That is something that is pretty rare, I think. 

Because Wyoming was running a offense from 1995 

 

most mobile QB stand in shotgun and read option like josh now …

 

He was under center taking 3 step drops, getting hit with pressure than scrambling around to make a throw 

 

he broke his collarbone his first year at Wyoming and didn’t run as much to protect himself 

 

he’s also put on about 40 pounds of muscle since 

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, billsintaiwan said:

I'm a professional baseball scout and the easiest thing in the world to do is to ***** on a prospect. You'll be right almost all the time. People have had jobs out here in Asia for years doing just that. 

 

to be fair, I think it was more fantasy football, fan publications and media who were ***** ing on him than actual accountable professionals

 

6 minutes ago, billsintaiwan said:

I applaud beane as a GM because there were easier calls. He could have taken the easy way out, but he put it all on the line. That was an old school scouting call in a stat driven zeitgeist. 

 

That's very perceptive.  Someone referred to drafting Josh Allen as a showdown between traditional old-school shoe-sole and eyeball scouting vs. modern analytical methods.

Edited October 20, 2022 by Beck Water

[Bills2022]

Accuracy is everything.  He lacked accuracy primarily because he had never had elite quarterback coaches working with him. The tools were always there.  

[Albany,n.y.]

2 hours ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

 

And my entire point was that Josh Allen defied those statistics, making him a statistical outlier and a total unicorn in my opinion. But, throwing out historical data, especially as the college game and NFL game get more and more alike, is foolish and no NFL scouting department would do that. 

 

Actually, no competent NFL scouting department would give a damn about comparable statistical data on college QBs.  The scouts look at film & in game situations, not sheets of paper. The management also talks to a prospect they are thinking of using a 1st round pick on as well as his former coaches.  

 

Here's a good example: Do you really think you can take college QB stats of a California or Florida QB and compare them with stats of any QB playing in bad weather states?  How about one who played all the teams' home games in a dome?  There's no such thing as historical data on college QBs.  Film, interviews and watching live games is what scouting top college players is all about, not some prior data based on statistics. 

 

I remember Beane talking about some of the reasons for drafting Josh.  Among them was a game in bad weather where Josh almost single handedly willed Wyoming to victory but on the stat sheet he looked horrible.  That can't be taken into account in trying to use comparable historical data because there is none.  Beane has talked about the (at least) 3 interviews with Josh, at the combine, Wyoming & Orchard Park,  He even spoke of how Josh reacted with the office staff at One Bills Drive.  Then there was the film study of every game. 

 

There's no way to quantify a complete scouting report on any individual and compare it to any historical data.  You might get lucky if you can ever find 2 similar scouting reports on 2 different franchise QBs, because I don't think a competent final report can be compared to another player unless they had almost identical circumstances.  

Edited October 20, 2022 by Albany,n.y.

[billsintaiwan]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

to be fair, I think it was more fantasy football, fan publications and media who were "down".

 

 

That's very perceptive.  Someone referred to drafting Josh Allen as a showdown between traditional old-school shoe-sole and eyeball scouting vs. modern analytical methods.

I think people thought he was the second coming of Jim drunkenmiller (one of my favorite surnames) and it wasn't fantasy football. People just thought he'd be a big armed nonentity. Which unfortunately does describe Jim Drunkenmiller.

[Xwnyer]

Coaching

[Ralonzo]

5 hours ago, Greg S said:

 

Good thing he wasn't at Bama. He would have been dominant there and gotten all the attention. Then Browns probably pick him at #1 or worse the Jets at #3. Nobody cares about Wyoming and the "experts" said accuracy issues. He falls under the radar. Thankfully Beane sees what a special QB he can be and the rest is history.

 

I don't think they were convinced until they saw him take coaching at the Senior Bowl and immediately implement it and improve. That cinched it.

[Albany,n.y.]

13 minutes ago, billsintaiwan said:

I'm a professional baseball scout and the easiest thing in the world to do is to ***** on a prospect. You'll be right almost all the time. People have had jobs out here in Asia for years doing just that. 

 

But I will tell you (and I'm just a bills fan, never played, don't know the game in depth like some on here do), that I was never more excited than when we drafted Josh Allen. My baseball analogy is Randy Johnson, everything was there, you could see it, but it never worked until he was twenty six or some such. But when it started to work, there were very few comparable talents. 

 

I applaud beane as a GM because there were easier calls. He could have taken the easy way out, but he put it all on the line. That was an old school scouting call in a stat driven zeitgeist. 

Mel Kiper said the same thing on the ESPN broadcast of the 2018 draft, comparing him with Randy Johnson.  It starts around the 1:10 mark: 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

5 minutes ago, Bills2022 said:

Accuracy is everything.  He lacked accuracy primarily because he had never had elite quarterback coaches working with him. The tools were always there.  

Accuracy is so very critical and it was a total gamble and counter to conventional wisdom that the inaccuracy was repairable to even an NFL level, much less elite nfl level where he is now. 
 

The really scary part for the rest of the NFL is he is still getting better.