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Bonehead play of year nominee


djp14150
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27 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

I put the blame squarely on the coaches but Chubb can still realize that 100% is more than 99%.


I actually bet that the odds were worse for the browns to win if Chubb had stopped short. That is, the odds of a muffed/fumbled snap on any of the three kneel downs probably was greater than what actually happened. 

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45 minutes ago, Orlando Tim said:

If Chubb was never told to stay out of end zone then it completely on coaching staff. If he was told not to score and did it is completely on him. No player should not score unless told to by coach 

I think this is a reasonable take. Yes the player should know the situation as well but the coaches should be making those decisions and letting the players know. 

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1 hour ago, djp14150 said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34631088/cleveland-browns-rb-nick-chubb-admits-scoring-late-td-vs-new-york-jets-cost-us-game
 

Chubb admits fault…it’s the coaches fault.

 

for a referescher.

 

Browns at 12 first and 10 after the 2 min warning. The jets were out of time outs.

 

you should do just 3 kneel downs and win

 

instead browns give the ball to Chubb and he scores a TD. Miss XP

 

Jets get KO and on 2nd play get a 64 yd blown coverage TD

onside kick recovery

score another TD

XP wins game.

briwns had some time with time outs to get into FG or Hail Mary range. QB throws a pick.

 


I’ll say I’ve been roasted a few times for being too serious when the bills have done similar with a late score. It’s rare it bites you like that but it sure does happen occasionally. Off memory, was Micah Hyde’s onside recovery similar with scoring when he should’ve gone down? If I recall it put us up 10 with just under 2 mins left when Miami had no timeouts and going down would’ve ended it 

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23 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:


I actually bet that the odds were worse for the browns to win if Chubb had stopped short. That is, the odds of a muffed/fumbled snap on any of the three kneel downs probably was greater than what actually happened. 

Strong disagree. 

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1 hour ago, djp14150 said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34631088/cleveland-browns-rb-nick-chubb-admits-scoring-late-td-vs-new-york-jets-cost-us-game
 

Chubb admits fault…it’s the coaches fault.

 

for a referescher.

 

Browns at 12 first and 10 after the 2 min warning. The jets were out of time outs.

 

you should do just 3 kneel downs and win

 

instead browns give the ball to Chubb and he scores a TD. Miss XP

 

Jets get KO and on 2nd play get a 64 yd blown coverage TD

onside kick recovery

score another TD

XP wins game.

briwns had some time with time outs to get into FG or Hail Mary range. QB throws a pick.

 

 

For clarification...If I am not mistaken, they needed a first down to kneel all the clock time off and couldn't just kneel down.  Otherwise they wouldn't have even handed the ball off at all.  BUT...he got that first down and should have just went down there, but instead got the next 2 yards for the TD foolishly.  

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:


I would love to see an analysis of the different odds there between three kneel downs and Chubb scoring. But it is hard to beat the near 100% that the browns were at after Chubb scored. 

 

I can tell you without looking it up, there have been a substantial amount of successful onside kick recoveries that also result in a score compared to the number of times a team has ever fumbled a kneel down snap that resulted in a turnover and a change in the outcome of a game (which I am not even sure has ever happened in the history of the NFL).  There is no reason to do the stat analysis on this one.  

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1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I totally disagree. He is going into score with about a minute left to make it a 14-point game. That wins the game. 
 

I don’t think it is fair to blame Chubb for the kicker missing a PAT, the defense folding on a long TD, the jets recovering an onsides kick, and the defense collapsing again.  When Chubb scored, the Browns had a 99% win probability. 

But why, if you can kneel down and end the game?

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1 hour ago, djp14150 said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34631088/cleveland-browns-rb-nick-chubb-admits-scoring-late-td-vs-new-york-jets-cost-us-game
 

Chubb admits fault…it’s the coaches fault.

 

for a referescher.

 

Browns at 12 first and 10 after the 2 min warning. The jets were out of time outs.

 

you should do just 3 kneel downs and win

 

instead browns give the ball to Chubb and he scores a TD. Miss XP

 

Jets get KO and on 2nd play get a 64 yd blown coverage TD

onside kick recovery

score another TD

XP wins game.

briwns had some time with time outs to get into FG or Hail Mary range. QB throws a pick.

 


 

I said he should of just slide in bounds.

 

 

Earlier on the drive - twice Hunt went out of bounds on runs to the sideline.

 

Bad coaching and worse execution.

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3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I can tell you without looking it up, there have been a substantial amount of successful onside kick recoveries that also result in a score compared to the number of times a team has ever fumbled a kneel down snap that resulted in a turnover and a change in the outcome of a game (which I am not even sure has ever happened in the history of the NFL).  There is no reason to do the stat analysis on this one.  


yeah, but the odds of what actually happened go beyond that. For the browns to lose, they had to miss a PAT, give up two TD’s and two PAT’s, and fail to recover an onsides kick with 1:55 left and the jets having no timeouts. The probability predictor gave the browns a 99.9% chance of winning at the time Chubb scored. 

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11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

For clarification...If I am not mistaken, they needed a first down to kneel all the clock time off and couldn't just kneel down.  Otherwise they wouldn't have even handed the ball off at all.  BUT...he got that first down and should have just went down there, but instead got the next 2 yards for the TD foolishly.  

 

 

Based on espn play list

 

they had a 2nd doen at 209 after last jet time out.  Chubb got 12 yards to the 12 fir a 1st down. Clock stopped at 2:00 to go. 
 

at that point with 2 min to go and other team has no TO you do 3 kneels and that’s the game.

6 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:


yeah, but the odds of what actually happened go beyond that. For the browns to lose, they had to miss a PAT, give up two TD’s and two PAT’s, and fail to recover an onsides kick with 1:55 left and the jets having no timeouts. The probability predictor gave the browns a 99.9% chance of winning at the time Chubb scored. 

They have better odds if they let Chubb score a TD going up 2 scores than have them burn the clock.

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