Beat KC? Beat Hill and Kelce, 41 Catches, 536 YDS, 4 TD's

[Mikie2times]

Like most of you, today’s aftermath was pretty brutal. I’m searching for any silver lining or factoid to understand more.  

In this game, yes, it came down to 13 poorly managed seconds. That said what will it come down to in the future? This is a young enough Chiefs team currently on its 4th consecutive AFC championship game and possibly 3rd consecutive SB. They aren’t going anywhere. Even if more competition is being added in this thing will run through KC for the foreseeable future until proven otherwise.

 

I don’t look at this anymore like it’s about beating Mahomes. We matched QB play yesterday and I feel comfortable saying only two QB’s in the NFL can literally do anything on the field. Burrow and Herbert could be incredible players but they will never be like Mahomes or Josh. The improvisation and athletic ability on both while slightly different, is unique to only those two.  

 

What has really been the difference maker in the two playoff games and how do we get over the hurdle?

 

Hill and Kelce in two playoff games have been targeted 48 times, they have 41 catches, 536 yards, and 4TD’s.  That is the problem with KC. Our defense, going into the game knows the two players who will be highlighted by KC and it’s not that we can’t stop them. I don’t think anybody can stop them. The problem is they perform BETTER against us than they do on average.

 

If you broke down these stats to individual averages, they average 10.25 catches, 134 yards, and 1 TD per game against Buffalo the last two years in the Playoffs. This year, in 16 games started by both, they averaged 6.34 catches, 73.86 yards, and .56 TD’s. They average close to double the production against our defense than they do in the regular season.

 

Even looking at the final two minutes of yesterdays game. You let Hill take a crosser to the house and then just give Kelce the seam for the FG. Our “better” defense becomes more neutral with QB’s this good. Even though Diggs is special and Knox looks like he might be, they’re not at the level of Hill and Kelce at this time.  

 

Some might say we need to focus on getting home against Mahomes or we need to get a home game. These things can help with the above issue. Bottom line, we need to be better at defending the two clearest threats of the KC offense and up until this point we have shown to be absolutely awful at it. It feels somewhat schematic driven as we are built to defend the pass more than the run so reduction in defensive performance against averages just seems improbable.

 

Is anybody else seeing this similar to me right now? Outside of Allen and Mahomes, who changed the trajectory of the game yesterday? Clearly Davis, but he’s not ready to be in this conversation just yet. Outside that it’s the usual suspects that we don’t seem to have any answer for.   

Edited January 25, 2022 by KzooMike

[Big Blitz]

Our defense is the most overrated pile of garbage in the NFL

 

I don't want to see ONE Trevor Semien level QB next year.   

[Nuncha]

We blew out the bad teams (except Jags) and lost close games to the good ones.  A tough schedule next year will really show where this team is at.

Edited January 25, 2022 by Azucho98

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

10 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

Like most of you, today’s aftermath was pretty brutal. I’m searching for any silver lining or factoid to understand more.  

In this game, yes, it came down to 13 poorly managed seconds. That said what will it come down to in the future? This is a young enough Chiefs team currently on its 4th consecutive AFC championship game and possibly 3rd consecutive SB. They aren’t going anywhere. Even if more competition is being added in this thing will run through KC for the foreseeable future until proven otherwise.

 

I don’t look at this anymore like it’s about beating Mahomes. We matched QB play yesterday and I feel comfortable saying only two QB’s in the NFL can literally do anything on the field. Burrow and Herbert could be incredible players but they will never be like Mahomes or Josh. The improvisation and athletic ability on both while slightly different, is unique to only those two.  

 

What has really been the difference maker in the two playoff games and how do we get over the hurdle?

 

Hill and Kelce in two playoff games have been targeted 48 times, they have 41 catches, 536 yards, and 4TD’s.  That is the problem with KC. Our defense, going into the game knows the two players who will be highlighted by KC and it’s not that we can’t stop them. I don’t think anybody can stop them. The problem is they perform BETTER against us than they do on average.

 

If you broke down these stats to individual averages, they average 10.25 catches, 134 yards, and 1 TD per game against Buffalo the last two years in the Playoffs. This year, in 16 games started by both, they averaged 6.34 catches, 73.86 yards, and .56 TD’s. They average close to double the production against our defense than they do in the regular season.

 

Even looking at the final two minutes of yesterdays game. You let Hill take a crosser to the house and then just give Kelce the seam for the FG. Our “better” defense becomes more neutral with QB’s this good. Even though Diggs is special and Knox looks like he might be, they’re not at the level of Hill and Kelce at this time.  

 

Some might say we need to focus on getting home against Mahomes or we need to get a home game. These things can help with the above issue. Bottom line, we need to be better at defending the two clearest threats of the KC offense and up until this point we have shown to be absolutely awful at it. It feels somewhat schematic driven as we are built to defend the pass more than the run so reduction in defensive performance against averages just seems improbable.

 

Is anybody else seeing this similar to me right now? Outside of Allen and Mahomes, who changed the trajectory of the game yesterday? Clearly Davis, but he’s not ready to be in this conversation just yet. Outside that it’s the usual suspects that we don’t seem to have any answer for.   

These stats are so misleading. The defense held those two guys pretty well in check until the last like 4 minutes of the game. The defense was gassed by then. 

[billsfan1959]

Allen and the Bills played toe to toe with Mahomes and the Chiefs and the game ended 36 -36 in regulation. A defensive play or different call from the coaches here or there and it would have ended as the second consecutive victory over them at Arrowhead. Is there anyone here who believes Allen wouldn't have taken his team down the field to score in overtime had they won the coin toss?

 

I understand the disappointment today; but, I have no idea why people are acting like there is no possible way this team can beat the Chiefs. They will be good as long as Mahomes is their QB. The Bills will be good as long as Allen is their QB. Last night was an epic performance by the two of them in that 4th quarter. There is no reason to think the outcome can't be different the next time. 

[zow2]

a lot of big names perform better against the vaunted Buffalo defense than league average (see Henry, Derrick… Taylor, Jonathan… Hopkins, Deandre, etc)

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

These stats are so misleading. The defense held those two guys pretty well in check until the last like 4 minutes of the game. The defense was gassed by then. 

Meh, you had other angles to work, like how we sort of shut them down more in a regular season game this year when the KC offense had yet to find it's form or how we sort of shut them down last year in a rain home game. The "defense was gassed". Ya, no thank you. If anything you're emphasizing the point of needing to shut them down. When we did, as you're stating, we at least slowed KC down to some degree. Until we no longer could shut them down and not even close when it counted most.  

[Big Blitz]

Was Hill out there for the last kickoff with 13 seconds left?

[Mikie2times]

Just now, Big Blitz said:

Was Hill out there for the last kickoff with 13 seconds left?

No, but Hill was for the first completion of that drive, then Kelce for the second on the seam route to kick the tying FG. 

[Boatdrinks]

Or just have a better defensive plan to hold them off for 13 seconds. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

3 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

Meh, you had other angles to work, like how we sort of shut them down more in a regular season game this year when the KC offense had yet to find it's form or how we sort of shut them down last year in a rain home game. The "defense was gassed". Ya, no thank you. If anything you're emphasizing the point of needing to shut them down. When we did, as you're stating, we at least slowed KC down to some degree. Until we no longer could shut them down and not even close when it counted most.  

sorry, but I respectfully disagree. The game plan was smart. They bracketed both guys well. Hill had 6 catches for 30 Yards until he busted his late TD after the D had been out there for most of the second half. 

if you want to blame anyone, blame the offensive playcalling— they squandered the 3rd quarter on 2-yard RB runs. Kept the D out there all second half. 

 

[Calidiehard]

We were physical with them in the regular season and not at all yesterday.

[Andy1]

The last 13 were bad but the offense stalled  middle of the game when Daboll leaned too hard on the run game without giving Josh a chance to run or pass before not converting 3rd downs. When their safety left the game, we never challenged them deep until much later. We played them even for an entire game and lost on a coin flip. There were a bunch of things we could have done to not be in that situation at the end.

 

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

sorry, but I respectfully disagree. The game plan was smart. They bracketed both guys well. Hill had 6 catches for 30 Yards until he busted his late TD after the D had been out there for most of the second half. 

if you want to blame anyone, blame the offensive playcalling— they squandered the 3rd quarter on 2-yard RB runs. Kept the D out there all second half. 

 

Fair enough. I'm not focused on yesterdays what could have we done better. More the future, what do we have to do better. Play calling, game management, and talk of 13 seconds doesn't wildly change future outcomes. If we get aggressive sooner, so does KC. At least you could make that argument. 

 

Even though we contained them for some time in yesterdays game, the explosion late did cost us the game. It's also incredible the level of total production those two have against us in just two playoff games. I also don't think Diggs is the impact player Hill is, regardless of the stats, nor do I think Knox is the impact player Kelce is at this time. I do see those two players as being the difference in this rivalry as we move forward. Our defense is better, although basically equal when facing this level of competition.  Our QB's are all but equal. Our skilled position players are very good, but KC's has two of the most dynamic in the league. Hill's speed is incredible and Kelce is a Hall of Fame TE. 

[nedboy7]

40 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Our defense is the most overrated pile of garbage in the NFL

 

I don't want to see ONE Trevor Semien level QB next year.   

 

That's hot garbage!  LOL.  The D had the game won until somehow they gave up a FG in 13 seconds.  I think we know that is not really on the defensive players.  Got to coach that scenario way better than that  Calling the #1 D in the league garbage is laughable.  How many years does the #1 defense win it all?  You wanna hate on your team?  Enjoy. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

Fair enough. I'm not focused on yesterdays what could have we done better. More the future, what do we have to do better. Play calling, game management, and talk of 13 seconds doesn't wildly change future outcomes. If we get aggressive sooner, so does KC. At least you could make that argument. 

 

Even though we contained them for some time in yesterdays game, the explosion late did cost us the game. It's also incredible the level of total production those two have against us in just two playoff games. I also don't think Diggs is the impact player Hill is, regardless of the stats, nor do I think Knox is the impact player Kelce is at this time. I do see those two players as being the difference in this rivalry as we move forward. Our defense is better, although basically equal when facing this level of competition.  Our QB's are all but equal. Our skilled position players are very good, but KC's has two of the most dynamic in the league. Hill's speed is incredible and Kelce is a Hall of Fame TE. 

 

You just saw what game management and play calling at a critical time can do.  Played head to head with KC and had the W.  The coaching was the issue.  You wanna be able to beat KC by 20?  That aint reality. 

[Big Blitz]

Just now, nedboy7 said:

 

That's hot garbage!  LOL.  The D had the game won until somehow they gave up a FG in 13 seconds.  I think we know that is not really on the defensive players.  Got to coach that scenario way better than that  Calling the #1 D in the league garbage is laughable.  How many years does the #1 defense win it all?  You wanna hate on your team?  Enjoy. 

 

 

 

 

They are OVERRATED 

 

Is hot garbage a bit much?  Meh.  Jonathan Taylor just scored again....

 

Hey there goes Kelce uncovered down the seam again..........

 

Look at Edmonds miss another tackle.......

 

Ryan Tannehill completes another throw to AJ Brown - incredible poise by the savvy veteran!....

 

 

 

I love my team.  I'll call out the issues when I think there are issues.  This defense is a freaking issue.   

[Chicken Boo]

44 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

These stats are so misleading. The defense held those two guys pretty well in check until the last like 4 minutes of the game. The defense was gassed by then. 

 

I fail to understand how the stats are misleading.  The game is 60 minutes and Hill and Kelce showed up when it counted.

Edited January 25, 2022 by Chicken Boo

[ChrisWatson#21]

Allen had the better passes but Tyreek and Kelce just are game changers that the Bills just don't have.  Must be nice to throw a 10 yard slant turn into a 50 yard gain.  

[GETTOTHE50]

Allen has stood up to Mahomes. He proved he's better, especially since he doesnt have Kelce, Hill, Reid, or their o-line.

 

McD needs to take down his mentor now. McD needs to take the next step. Allen has.

 

Your turn Sean.

[Turk71]

After playing one of the easiest schedules in the league the Bills d ended the season #1 in total defense and scoring. This may not be a popular take but I'm hoping Frazier moves on. His style of defense allows 8 minute drives and keeps the Bills offense off the field when they're  playing against a good offense. With a guy like Allen who can score points in bunches you need a more aggressive approach to getting the ball back imo. You may give up a big play once in a while but the extra possessions for Josh will more than make up for that. The soft d works fine against lousy qbs who can't sustain drives but Frazier shows no ability to adjust his approach against the better qbs. 

  This embarrassing soft shell defense that blew the game last night in historic fashion has got to go. I can't stand to watch them concede yardage all the way up the field to the more efficient qbs, it's like the death of a 1,000 cuts. It seemed to me that the defense was  more successful when they employed a more aggressive approach vs those qbs .

 They didn't go into the game with a confident  'We 're gonna kick your ass' approach. They went into it with a 'we 're scared of you' approach which showed no confidence in the players and put them on their heals. The result was 560 yards of offense allowed with not a single pass defensed out of 44 passes. Then the humiliating failure to defend 2 plays and 13 secs.

  To add to that failure and humiliation the defense appeared to be concerned with guarding the sideline to prevent KC from getting out of bounds. KC had 3 TOs and only 13 seconds to play! What a bunch of ***** morons! Inexcusable! 

 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

 I know I might be in the minority here, but I was more encouraged with yesterday's loss than discouraged. That doesn't mean it didn't hurt down to my soul when it happened, but I 100% believe we have the best QB in the league right now.

 

 A weapon like no one has ever seen play this game. A combination size, strength, superior arm talent, ellusive, pocket presence and you can tell lately a true student of the game. Presnap and post snap he's so much better.  Now add to that the running side with more than enough speed to out run most defensive players, also some really good juke moves the last few weeks. He can run you over, run around you and/or he can juke you out of your jock. His competitive fire & heart are off the charts.

 

 On top of that, for the first time in his career I can honestly say that no game is too big for him now. I know we went to the AFCCG last year, but it just seemed like we were at our ceiling, a natural stepping stone you could say, we weren't expected to put up a fight, much less win. Allen looked like the game was too big for him that night.

 

 Fast forward to this year's playoffs. In 2 games that, IMO, were the 2 biggest in his career because of the expectations and also because the 2 were against our former nemesis and current nemesis. His play in each was off the charts, like never seen before. In those 2 games: Rushing the ball 17 carries 134 yards  7.88 YPC and had some really key runs last night. Passing the ball 48/62  77.4%  637 yards  10.3 YPA  9 TDs  0 INTs  148.99 QB Rating. 94.4 QBR. 11 TD passes in the playoffs is the NFL record, he had 9 in 2 games.

 

 We scored a TD on 12 of 16 drives in the postseason(excluding the kneel down vs NE). A 75% TD Rate in the playoffs is just absurd. You should win a Super Bowl when producing like that.

 

 Mahomes had all the advantages last night: Playing at home, the coaches, by far the better playmakers and not having one of the best CBs(Tre White) in the game lined up opposite of him. And it still took some coaching blunders on our part, a miracle ending in regulation and then OT to beat Allen. If they switched teams Allen would've won by at least 2 scores.

 

 Allen is the better QB and we now truly have a unicorn at QB. After watching this team for over 40 years, I'm so thankful and encouraged by that.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

I fail to understand how the stats are misleading.  The game is 60 minutes and Hill and Kelce showed up when it counted.

misleading, because the OP suggested some schematic flaws. I think Hill and Kelce came on late not because of schematic failures, but because the D was gassed. I don’t think we would change how we defended them. 

[Bangarang]

26 minutes ago, Calidiehard said:

We were physical with them in the regular season and not at all yesterday.

What does this even mean? In what ways?

[Big Blitz]

3 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 I know I might be in the minority here, but I was more encouraged with yesterday's loss than discouraged. That doesn't mean it didn't hurt down to my soul when it happened, but I 100% believe we have the best QB in the league right now.

 

 A weapon like no one has ever seen play this game. A combination size, strength, superior arm talent, ellusive, pocket presence and you can tell lately a true student of the game. Presnap and post snap he's so much better.  Now add to that the running side with more than enough speed to out run most defensive players, also some really good juke moves the last few weeks. He can run you over, run around you and/or he can juke you out of your jock. His competitive fire & heart are off the charts.

 

 On top of that, for the first time in his career I can honestly say that no game is too big for him now. I know we went to the AFCCG last year, but it just seemed like we were at our ceiling, a natural stepping stone you could say, we weren't expected to put up a fight, much less win. Allen looked like the game was too big for him that night.

 

 Fast forward to this year's playoffs. In 2 games that, IMO, were the 2 biggest in his career because of the expectations and also because the 2 were against our former nemesis and current nemesis. His play in each was off the charts, like never seen before. In those 2 games: Rushing the ball 17 carries 134 yards  7.88 YPC and had some really key runs last night. Passing the ball 48/62  77.4%  637 yards  10.3 YPA  9 TDs  0 INTs  148.99 QB Rating. 94.4 QBR. 11 TD passes in the playoffs is the NFL record, he had 9 in 2 games.

 

 We scored a TD on 12 of 16 drives in the postseason(excluding the kneel down vs NE). A 75% TD Rate in the playoffs is just absurd. You should win a Super Bowl when producing like that.

 

 Mahomes had all the advantages last night: Playing at home, the coaches, by far the better playmakers and not having one of the best CBs(Tre White) in the game lined up opposite of him. And it still took some coaching blunders on our part, a miracle ending in regulation and then OT to beat Allen. If they switched teams Allen would've won by at least 2 scores.

 

 Allen is the better QB and we now truly have a unicorn at QB. After watching this team for over 40 years, I'm so thankful and encouraged by that.

 

 

 

This makes me feel worse.  

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

5 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

This makes me feel worse.  

 

It shouldn't. We will have a legitimate shot at a Championship for the next 12 years or more. Allen is only going to get better.

 

 Last year we lost because our QB wasn't ready, this year we lost because of our coaching and an injury to 1 of the 2 most important players we have when facing Mahomes and company. Next year we put it all together and win it all.

 

Edited January 25, 2022 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[Turk71]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

misleading, because the OP suggested some schematic flaws. I think Hill and Kelce came on late not because of schematic failures, but because the D was gassed. I don’t think we would change how we defended them. 

Chiefs gained 560 yards, Mahomes QBR was near perfect, not a single pass was defensed out of 44, Hill had one of his biggest games of the year, Kelce had only 4 bigger games out of 19 played and you don't think the Bills would change how they defended them? (or in this case how they didn't defend them)

You really believe the Bills wouldn't like to have done it differently? That's just ridiculous.

[Calidiehard]

11 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

What does this even mean? In what ways?

We jammed the receivers and Kelce at the line, held them a little and force holding or PI to be called. 

[Mikie2times]

18 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

misleading, because the OP suggested some schematic flaws. I think Hill and Kelce came on late not because of schematic failures, but because the D was gassed. I don’t think we would change how we defended them. 

Well, do we? I mean, did we not run the same defense against them last year or was this our version of learning? You have disagreed in a way that leads to good dialogue and I appreciate that.

 

I guess I don't like defensive systems that are too "system" oriented which we seem to be. Next week we will see KC have issues with the Bengals because the Bengals shred man defense. I can unearth some stats from advanced sites, but it's like two different teams, man vs zone. KC plays virtually all man. Buffalo is a dominant zone team, generally more shell/bend but don't break principles. We did seem to play brackets a lot against them yesterday. I don't know if I buy the "gassed" part. Hill just beat Jackson inside because Jackson had improper technique for what was called. That might have been because he was tired, I don't know. Kelce was just given a seam route to set up the FG with no attempt at slowing him down. That was not from being gassed. These two players combined are better than any two offensive threats we have. As one poster pointed out, what player do we have that can take a slant to the house like Hill or is a HOF level receiver like Kelce? We have caught up in the arms race. We are perceived to be ahead in the defensive race. All I can land on is they have two of the most dynamic offensive players in football. So much so that they make Diggs and Knox look normal. The production against us stands out even if it is somewhat flawed as far as when it occurred. 

Edited January 25, 2022 by KzooMike

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

7 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

Chiefs gained 560 yards, Mahomes QBR was near perfect, not a single pass was defensed out of 44, Hill had one of his biggest games of the year, Kelce had only 4 bigger games out of 19 played and you don't think the Bills would change how they defended them? (or in this case how they didn't defend them)

You really believe the Bills wouldn't like to have done it differently? That's just ridiculous.

 

1 minute ago, KzooMike said:

Well, do we? I mean, did we not run the same defense against them last year or was this our version of learning? You have disagreed in a way that leads to good dialogue and I appreciate that.

 

I guess I don't like defensive systems that are too "system" oriented which we seem to be. Next week we will see KC have issues with the Bengals because the Bengals shred man defense. I can unearth some stats from advanced sites, but it's like two different teams, man vs zone. KC plays virtually all man. Buffalo is a dominant zone team, generally more shell/bend but don't break principles. We did seem to play brackets a lot against them yesterday. I don't know if I buy the "gassed" part. Hill just beat Jackson inside because Jackson had improper technique for what was called. That might have been because he was tired, I don't know. Kelce was just given a seam route to set up the FG with no attempt at slowing him down. That was not from being gassed. These two players combined are better than any two offensive threats we have. As one poster pointed out, what player do we have that can take a slant to the house like Hill or is a HOF level receiver like Kelce? We have caught up in the arms race. We are perceived to be ahead in the defensive race.

 

All I can land on is they have two of the most dynamic offensive players in football. So much so that they make Diggs and Knox look normal. The production against us stands out even if it is somewhat flawed as far as when it occurred. 

i just think it is really hard to extrapolate anything bigger here because this game was so weird. In the span of 7 minutes, there was almost 300 total yards of offense. That was just unprecedented. 
 

Are Hill and Kelce excellent players? Yes. That combo is better than our combo of best players. And I agree with the concept that we need those sorts of playmakers. The Bills get almost nothing in YAC, and that is the chiefs entire offense. It helps when you have Hill And Kelce. 

 

But, how the Bills defended the chiefs last night? I would argue that the plan was to take Hill And Kelce away; and it worked for like 80% Of the game, but Mahomes scrambled/broke tackles like a thousand times to crack the code early on, and then hill And Kelce got us in the end.  

 

[pigpen65]

You have to cover them to stop them. I will argue that point to the day die even if McD disagrees