Week 12: Bills at Saints on Thanksgiving

[Chandler#81]

19 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Kind of feel like we’re going to smoke these guys. It may all be fools gold though.

Ditto.

 

[Spoiler Alert] I have a thing I do during the week with no idea how this activity will turn out. When I have a great week at this activity, we win -usually big! Failed miserably all last week and the Bills followed suit. This week has been golden so far -so it’s in the bag!😄👍

[Process]

3 minutes ago, Casey D said:

I saw that.  And also Pats - 6 1/2 against the Titans.  Both lines seem out of whack, as if they want you to bet the Saints and Titans.  While smart money going the other way?

I think Bills -6.5 is actually right. -4 was really good value and an overreaction to our loss last week. I am sad I didn't bet it before they adjusted.

 

We are playing a team that could possibly be missing their starting QB, #1 WR, #1 and #2 RB, starting TE and multiple o lineman.

 

This is the type of game the Bills win by 30. 

 

I am still going to bet Bills -6.5 but not huge like I was going to pound -4.

Also I LOVE Breida +480 to score a TD

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I jumped on the Colts +7.5 last week too. The thing that makes me nervous betting the Saints is Siemian. I'm not sure he is a competent QB. He might be. But if he isn't, the Bills feast on incompetent QB's and so far this year that has lead to all the Bills victories averaging around a 3 TD margin. 

Siemien performed badly against McDermott's scheme in 2017. 58.2 rating and he was fooled more than once. 

[Blank Stare]

43 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You know, I wasn't gonna say anything.  Generosity should be thanked and recognized and all that.

 

But he gave away two meals.  TWO meals.  And he did so with fanfare and news coverage - lots of talking on camera, all the food packed in Blue bags emblazoned with his #1 jersey.  And he did this when the Bills are playing on a short week with minimal time to study opponent tape and minimal time for the players to rest up.  I'm sure his personal assistant did all the shopping and packaging and loading and all he had to do was show up for the news feature, but still.

 

I gave away two+ Thanksgiving meals myself.  I did it by quietly putting together bags of easy-to-prepare food like canned ham and instant mashed potatoes and instant sweet potatoes and canned veg (throw in a dollar store can opener) because a lot of times people who don't have food, have had their electric or gas shut off and can't cook much.   A friend who works with women coming out of DV situations knew who could use it and said she could drop them off on her round.  Then I bought vienna sausage cans and instant mashed potato packets and went around to our neighborhood "food box pantries" and stocked them because they're high-calorie filling foods that someone can prepare with hot water from a public bathroom and fill their stomach or their kids stomach with something warm.  I explain all that because I had a learning curve about the best ways to help, so if some of you are shopping today and want to help someone, there are some easy suggestions.  Or just float what you can in $$ to a local food pantry, many of them can bulk-buy wholesale and get more bang for the buck.  I give where I do because it's available to anyone, no questions, no eligibility process, if you're hungry just walk up and take it and eat.

 

The thought of being followed around on camera with someone sticking a microphone up my nose while I talk about how much it means to me while doing my little giving thing makes me wanna 🤮.   I don't do it for PR or thanks, I do it because I have enough that I can spare some and I'm very grateful for that.

 

I really kind of hate myself writing this.   Manny Sands has a choice about how he spends his money, and how he spends his time, and he chose to do something to help two families with some of both, which he didn't have to do, so credit to him. 

 

But clearly, from how the give-away was covered and the blue bags with his #1 jersey and so forth, there's a lot of concern about his "Brand" and positive PR, not just about giving back and helping people, so let's keep it Real, too.  A lot of us quietly and without fanfare do as much with <10% of his resources and if helping people was his real goal he could do more.  I believe Feliciano gave away 300 meals including 19 lb turkeys.  And they weren't bagged up in #76 jerseys, though he did give an interview about it.

I get it. Not personally how I’d do it either. Kudos to you, Feliciano, as well everyone else in a position to donate. That is truly a wonderful gesture. The PR side of things like this can definitely be a little cringey, but  I think some of that kind of comes with the territory to bring awareness to his foundation.  However, let’s not let the method cloud the action. According to the USDA, more than 38 million people, including 12 million children, in the United States are food insecure. The important part is that’s two less families without a meal. 

[dave mcbride]

After the Broncos loss to the Bills in 2017:

 

All week, Siemian and the Broncos faced questions about the strength of Buffalo's defensive front, but it wasn't just that group of Bills defenders that came up big.

"I always say it doesn't really matter what coverage you play when you have a good front and get pressure, but they did a great job mixing up looks, a lot of different things," Siemian said. "They started running some man coverage. When they played zone, they played it the right way; they knew where all their help was. And that front comes and gets you, so they're tough to deal with."

 

https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/siemian-says-turnovers-made-for-missed-opportunities-vs-bills-19440421

[Blank Stare]

3 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

It's really not just a game. It's livelihoods and careers for many people.

Not to those families who now have their next meal. That’s nourished vs. malnourished. Life or death. The game of football pales in comparison.  

[NewEra]

20 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins&#x27; Rib said:

 

Will be interesting to see if he out touches Moss/Singletary combined 2:1 tomorrow

Sounds about right.  8 touches for breida- 4 for Moss/motor combined.

[GoBills808]

16 minutes ago, Casey D said:

I saw that.  And also Pats - 6 1/2 against the Titans.  Both lines seem out of whack, as if they want you to bet the Saints and Titans.  While smart money going the other way?

Don’t worry until it hits 7

 

any time the line crosses 3 or 7 something is up

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

So does this mean definitely no Star? Or can he still be cleared tomorrow? 

[dave mcbride]

21 minutes ago, Casey D said:

I saw that.  And also Pats - 6 1/2 against the Titans.  Both lines seem out of whack, as if they want you to bet the Saints and Titans.  While smart money going the other way?

There are a lot of blowouts in the NFL. Of the 15 games last week, the margin of victory was 9 or more in 9 of the games (60 percent). Sometimes it's OK to assume that the better team is going to win by two scores over a badly injured unit.

Edited November 24, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Don’t worry until it hits 7

 

any time the line crosses 3 or 7 something is up

 

Or if a line doesn't make sense don't bet it or bet the other side. Last weeks line that didn't make sense was Packers -2.5 and then it moved down to Packers -1.5 by Kick Off. I foolishly bet the Packers thinking the Packers should have been -3. 

[JoshAllin]

24 minutes ago, Process said:

Was set to make my biggest sports bet of the year on Bills -4 but it's moved to 6.5 now, geez. 

The only reason it should be moving up that much is if brown is playing

[HappyDays]

16 minutes ago, Process said:

I think Bills -6.5 is actually right. -4 was really good value and an overreaction to our loss last week. I am sad I didn't bet it before they adjusted.

 

We are playing a team that could possibly be missing their starting QB, #1 WR, #1 and #2 RB, starting TE and multiple o lineman.

 

Mostly agreed. The one caveat is that the Saints have a very good defense. We're too late into the season to assume the Bills offense can suddenly turn it on against a good defense. If they have another debacle like the Jaguars it won't matter what our defense does. If the Bills lose this game it is going to be something like 13-10. Hopefully McDermott forces Daboll to use Breida and just find a way to move the chains.

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mostly agreed. The one caveat is that the Saints have a very good defense. We're too late into the season to assume the Bills offense can suddenly turn it on against a good defense. If they have another debacle like the Jaguars it won't matter what our defense does. If the Bills lose this game it is going to be something like 13-10. Hopefully McDermott forces Daboll to use Breida and just find a way to move the chains.

They did for the first part of the season, yes.

In the last four games, they've given up 40, 23, 27, and 27 points to the Eagles, Titans, Falcons, and Bucs. If the Eagles can score 40 and the lowly Falcons can score 27, it seems the Saints have fallen a bit from the lofty defensive perch upon which they sat earlier this year. Furthermore, their leading sacker and second leading sacker both failed to practice yesterday and may be out or limited for this game.

I agree with the overall point that the Bills can't take anything for granted, and I'm not saying the Saints won't give them trouble...just that they're not quite what they were earlier this year.

[YoloinOhio]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mostly agreed. The one caveat is that the Saints have a very good defense. We're too late into the season to assume the Bills offense can suddenly turn it on against a good defense. If they have another debacle like the Jaguars it won't matter what our defense does. If the Bills lose this game it is going to be something like 13-10. Hopefully McDermott forces Daboll to use Breida and just find a way to move the chains.

ESPN has the jags D ranked above the saints in both passing and rushing fwiw 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

6 minutes ago, Logic said:

They did for the first part of the season, yes.

In the last four games, they've given up 40, 23, 27, and 27 points to the Eagles, Titans, Falcons, and Bucs. If the Eagles can score 40 and the lowly Falcons can score 27, it seems the Saints have fallen a bit from the lofty defensive perch upon which they sat earlier this year. Furthermore, their leading sacker and second leading sacker both failed to practice yesterday and may be out or limited for this game.

I agree with the overall point that the Bills can't take anything for granted, and I'm not saying the Saints won't give them trouble...just that they're not quite what they were earlier this year.

Thanks Sal!

[finn]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Maybe revealing some exasperation about how Daboll is (not) using him? 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Sounds about right.  8 touches for breida- 4 for Moss/motor combined.

 

Hope the number of touches is much higher though. 14 to 7 at minimum. All four of the Bills losses the RB's + Gilliam  have combined for 20 or less total touches. 20, 18, 18 and 15 touches. Those are the four lowest totals on the season. In the six wins they are totaling 27, 28, 31, 21, 22 and 21 touches. 

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, Logic said:

They did for the first part of the season, yes.

In the last four games, they've given up 40, 23, 27, and 27 points to the Eagles, Titans, Falcons, and Bucs. If the Eagles can score 40 and the lowly Falcons can score 27, it seems the Saints have fallen a bit from the lofty defensive perch upon which they sat earlier this year. Furthermore, their leading sacker and second leading sacker both failed to practice yesterday and may be out or limited for this game.

I agree with the overall point that the Bills can't take anything for granted, and I'm not saying the Saints won't give them trouble...just that they're not quite what they were earlier this year.

 

13 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

ESPN has the jags D ranked above the saints in both passing and rushing fwiw 

 

In DVOA they're 5th, in weighted DVOA (more recent games are weighed more heavily) they're 6th. And they have the exact type of defense that has given us trouble, a defense built around a strong pass rush. Very well coached too. Sean Payton isn't going to rewrite the script. They're going to come out rushing four and dropping everyone else into cover 2. The Bills have to prove they can beat that script. Until they do I'm not assuming anything.

Edited November 24, 2021 by HappyDays

[aristocrat]

So the Saints are without Kamara and Ingham so maybe Taysom Hill starts at rb lol?