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TBN: Is now a good time for Josh Allen to get his contract extension?


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7 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He's currently somewhere in between Mahomes and Watson, making him the 2nd highest paid QB in the NFL. Not much higher he can go unless he tops Mahomes. 

 

 

 

 

Well yeah. 

Unless Dak gets paid more.  Or Cleveland pays Baker more. Or Josh wins and MVP or a SB.  
 

I don’t see how his contract would go down.  Even if he has an injury and and misses the season, he’ll still get paid the same imo.  The longer we wait, the more we will pay.  Just like Dallas and Dak 

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Yes, they'll get it done this offseason and they should.   As long as it is as expected, an extension that kicks in after his 5th year option.   So still on the rookie deal this ye

Now as in today?   Dont see much reason for doing it in the next 8 months...

Absolutely.  His price tag will only go up the longer we wait.    those that are saying we don’t have the money....it’s an extension and has no bearing on next years cap.     If we are s

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Unless Dak gets paid more.  Or Cleveland pays Baker more. Or Josh wins and MVP or a SB.  
 

I don’t see how his contract would go down.  Even if he has an injury and and misses the season, he’ll still get paid the same imo.  The longer we wait, the more we will pay.  Just like Dallas and Dak 

What numbers are you projecting for Dak and Baker. I mean all I'm looking at is Mahomes. Allen won't top Mahomes. Allen is projected around $42-43 million. There's not much higher he can go without equalling or topping Mahomes. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

What numbers are you projecting for Dak and Baker. I mean all I'm looking at is Mahomes. Allen won't top Mahomes. Allen is projected around $42-43 million. There's not much higher he can go without equalling or topping Mahomes. 

 

 

I’m not projecting any numbers....I’m saying that the chances of Josh Allens price tag going DOWN, is next to nil

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1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Yes, they'll get it done this offseason and they should.

 

As long as it is as expected, an extension that kicks in after his 5th year option.

 

So still on the rookie deal this year and 2022, and then the big money kicks in in 2023. But we would be able to spread some of that bonus out over the next couple of years as well.

 

Absolutely. Get r dun.

 

 

I agree.  This is how you do a contract for a QB with one year left on his rookie deal and a 5th year option available.  He can get a chunk of cash up front, but the cap hits need to stay low this season and reasonably low next.

 

That all said, I definitely exercise his 5th year option, but I want to see another season of him before signing him to a mega deal.  Also I don’t know that QBs like him, Mayfield and Lamar will be in a hurry to sign extensions yet.  There’s so much more money on the horizon they might want to wait for it. 

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Just now, BarleyNY said:

I agree.  This is how you do a contract for a QB with one year left on his rookie deal and a 5th year option available.  He can get a chunk of cash up front, but the cap hits need to stay low this season and reasonably low next.

 

That all said, I definitely exercise his 5th year option, but I want to see another season of him before signing him to a mega deal.  Also I don’t know that QBs like him, Mayfield and Lamar will be in a hurry to sign extensions yet.  There’s so much more money on the horizon they might want to wait for it. 

 

JMO, but anytime anyone presents something to me that guarantees me $100M+, I sign that almost immediately. I dont think he'd be leaving too much money on the table signing now rather than next year. Especially for a guy who plays physically and had a small shoulder injury this year. And a guy who doesnt seem like the type to try to push this to a "Dak-type" situation. Get it done so everyone can focus on playing football and move on.

 

If he is due to sign a 5yr/$200M extension, how much higher will it really get? And is it worth waiting for? And does he lose out on some guaranteed money since the team loses the ability to spread the hit into 2021?

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I don't know that we need to be in a rush to extend his contract. If we exercise the 5th year option he's under contract through the end of the 2022 season, and we could even franchise tag him for the next 2 seasons after that. 

 

I don't see Josh's cap hit changing very much even if he wins league MVP and a SB next season. If he signed a contract today fair value would probably be something like 42mm AAV for 4 years. If he waits until 2022 and wins an MVP/SB this coming season the contract probably looks like 47mm AAV for 10 years. The biggest different would be the length of the contract and guaranteed $$. 

 

That being said, I don't see a whole lot of risk to extending Josh now. He was inarguably a top 3 QB this year and carried us to the AFCCG. He makes the occasional play with his legs, but he's not even close to being a run first QB that we would have to worry about his longevity. 

 

My only question with regards to Josh's development is how will he look after the mega contract kicks in and we can't spend as much on the rest of the roster? Obviously that can't be answered until AFTER he signs the contract, so that's really not a reason to wait.  

 

 

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49 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m not projecting any numbers....I’m saying that the chances of Josh Allens price tag going DOWN, is next to nil

If you don't do any projections then you're really not basing your point on anything. 

 

Saying Allen has a better chance to go down or stay the same rather than up is just a fact. There's literally only 1 more spot up he could go. That's not an insult to Allen. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

I’m no expert in the matter but it seems cap space is limited.. Think the Bills need to dump salary wherever they can. Obviously we’re not in terrible shape but I think we need to trim some fat in order to extend Josh next year. Josh will cost $38M-$40M/aav I’m guessing.. Jefferson, Butler, Lotulelei and even Hughes need to go. Probably hang onto Morse, Feliciano and Williams for at least another year but overwhelmingly I think the defense needs to be gutted and then rebuilt through the draft.. But yeah, I don’t think Josh will be extended this year. I could be completely wrong but I think we need to free up cap for next year in order to do that.


VF, bud, you’re hearts in the right place, but jettisoning 4 DT’s, and you’re best but aging DE is not the solution, especially Star as it has been said hundreds of times Hughes is our most productive DE, Star is the requirement for our defense in a space eating DT.  McD’s defenses have been historically depending on that one.  I’m sure you’ve read and heard the implications to Oliver and Edmunds missing Star hurt our defense.  I’ll grant you Butler especially, Jefferson, Addison, and Murphy are all an option, but you have to replace.  We only have 8 picks.

 

As far as extending Josh, the new contract doesn’t affect anything until 2022, and you’ve heard from a ton of resources the tv contracts should blow up the cap in 22.  If we do the 5th year option, Allen’s number only goes up.  You can structure a deal between the base, bonus, etc. to make his 2022 team friendly, and backload.  As Pat Kirwan always says so I don’t steal his line, Restructure, Reduce, or Release.  

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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

If you don't do any projections then you're really not basing your point on anything. 

 

Saying Allen has a better chance to go down or stay the same rather than up is just a fact. There's literally only 1 more spot up he could go. That's not an insult to Allen. 

 

 

It doesn’t really matter if I don’t have any projections.  It’s all pretend at this point. Projections made by a guy on the couch are make believe.   I could say that dak is going to make 40 mill a year (which is entirely possible)....Baker is going to make 40 mill a year.....and Josh is better than both, so he’ll naturally get more than both. Which means his price tag has gone up. Right now, we’re hoping that we can get him for under 40m per.  If a lesser qb signs for 40m per, the likelihood he signs for less than 40m per is nil, unless he gives us a nice break.

 

The fact is.....it’s very unlikely that his price tag will go down.....why?  Because QB price tags don’t go down.  They only go up.  Dak shattered his ankle....and guess what, he’s still going to get paid MORE than if he would’ve signed the contract last year.  


You can think that allens price tag will only go down or stay the same.  I think it’s nonsense. No offense


 

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Just my gut on this, but I think Josh takes a MASSIVE hometown deal. In the range of $20-$25 million/year, in order to keep the talent level around him at the top, and be able to contend for the Superbowl year in/year out. 

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8 minutes ago, Draconator said:

Just my gut on this, but I think Josh takes a MASSIVE hometown deal. In the range of $20-$25 million/year, in order to keep the talent level around him at the top, and be able to contend for the Superbowl year in/year out. 

 

His on-field decision making already proves he is smarter than that. No need to take HALF the pay when the cap will be sky-rocketing right when his big money kicks in.

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24 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It doesn’t really matter if I don’t have any projections.  It’s all pretend at this point. Projections made by a guy on the couch are make believe.   I could say that dak is going to make 40 mill a year (which is entirely possible)....Baker is going to make 40 mill a year.....and Josh is better than both, so he’ll naturally get more than both. Which means his price tag has gone up. Right now, we’re hoping that we can get him for under 40m per.  If a lesser qb signs for 40m per, the likelihood he signs for less than 40m per is nil, unless he gives us a nice break.

 

The fact is.....it’s very unlikely that his price tag will go down.....why?  Because QB price tags don’t go down.  They only go up.  Dak shattered his ankle....and guess what, he’s still going to get paid MORE than if he would’ve signed the contract last year.  


You can think that allens price tag will only go down or stay the same.  I think it’s nonsense. No offense


 

Ugh. 

 

No one said his price will only go down or stay the same. I said the chances are better they go down. 

 

He's already projected to be the 2nd highest paid QB in the NFL behind Mahomes. He can't go up much more. 

 

No one is saying Allen's price will only go down. 

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20 minutes ago, Draconator said:

Just my gut on this, but I think Josh takes a MASSIVE hometown deal. In the range of $20-$25 million/year, in order to keep the talent level around him at the top, and be able to contend for the Superbowl year in/year out. 

Wishful thinking.  If he takes 15-20 mill less a year, he’d be a god of gods.  

 

I think he might take a few mill less and be up for restructuring his contract often in order to help the team do what they have to do in order to keep us in SB contention.  I’m confidant that he won’t ask for top dollar.

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3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

His price actually is more likely to go down or stay the same. QB market is already set. Last year I felt the Bills better get White signed before Ramsey, but there really isnt anyone that will increase the QB market.

 

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Ugh. 

 

No one said his price will only go down or stay the same. I said the chances are better they go down. 

 

He's already projected to be the 2nd highest paid QB in the NFL behind Mahomes. He can't go up much more. 

 

No one is saying Allen's price will only go down. 

You said that his price is more likely to go down or stay the same, than go up. 

 

I was arguing that point.  I’m sorry if I misspoke.  There is very little to no chance imo, that his price tag will go down.  It might stay the same.  It might go up.....but his price isn’t more likely to go down, than up.
 

Looking at his career trajectory, the likelihood of him being even better than last season is pretty good.  If he’s even better than last year, he might be better than Mahomes.  If that happens and he wins a super bowl.....his price tag should be higher than Mahomes.  
 

looking at his career trajectory, the thought of him being so much worse, that his price tag goes down, is almost unfathomable.  
 

 

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26 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Ugh. 

 

No one said his price will only go down or stay the same. I said the chances are better they go down. 

 

He's already projected to be the 2nd highest paid QB in the NFL behind Mahomes. He can't go up much more. 

 

No one is saying Allen's price will only go down. 

 

I'm not sure about this either.   Even if Allen has plateaued and I believe he hasn't, there's probably going to be a big boost in the CAP after next season.  Give some of these owners more money to play with combined with a potentially disgruntled Allen watching Mayfield & Jackson get big time extensions and we might have a problem.

 

I'm very confident that Bean & the Bills will extend Allen's contract this year locking him up for the foreseeable future. I think the contract will be very CAP friendly this coming season and the Bills will get a real hometown discount.

 

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