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The more I think about it the more I realize ertz needs to be a Bill


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I might be one of the few who still believes in Dawson Knox (he actually was one of the better players for the Bills in the playoffs) and I think he will take a further step in 2021.

 

The Bills need a number two TE who can provide all around ability and they might have it on the roster already in Reggie Gilliam.

 

But they can get a number two TE on day three of this draft if they wanted to go that route. No need to spend big money on the TE position.

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19 minutes ago, njbuff said:

I might be one of the few who still believes in Dawson Knox (he actually was one of the better players for the Bills in the playoffs) and I think he will take a further step in 2021.

 

The Bills need a number two TE who can provide all around ability and they might have it on the roster already in Reggie Gilliam.

 

But they can get a number two TE on day three of this draft if they wanted to go that route. No need to spend big money on the TE position.

I also like D Knox but in the role of the #2 TE.  R Gilliam is nowhere near a TE the Bills should be playing - we're contender status now - c'mon.  As for drafting a TE it usually takes several years to get a TE to the level wanted.

 

I would rather have Jonnu Smith the FA TE from Tenn than Ertz.  Jonnu would come over as less of a prima donna, better process guy, and by far a better run blocker. 

Jonnu has less milage on him and seems a better fit for the role I would like to see the new TE take on, which would be about 5-7 targets a game and around the 4th option, and someone who takes blocking seriously.   Jonnu should cost less than Ertz, and if Kroft and L Smith are jettisoned the overall incremental expense would be a couple million.

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2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I also like D Knox but in the role of the #2 TE.  R Gilliam is nowhere near a TE the Bills should be playing - we're contender status now - c'mon.  As for drafting a TE it usually takes several years to get a TE to the level wanted.

 

I would rather have Jonnu Smith the FA TE from Tenn than Ertz.  Jonnu would come over as less of a prima donna, better process guy, and by far a better run blocker. 

Jonnu has less milage on him and seems a better fit for the role I would like to see the new TE take on, which would be about 5-7 targets a game and around the 4th option, and someone who takes blocking seriously.   Jonnu should cost less than Ertz, and if Kroft and L Smith are jettisoned the overall incremental expense would be a couple million.

Knox had 44 targets in 2020.  What makes you think his replacement will see 80-110 targets?  Not going to happen.

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18 hours ago, BTB said:

Knox had 44 targets in 2020.  What makes you think his replacement will see 80-110 targets?  Not going to happen.

I was stating targets per game (tpg).  In the playoffs Knox averaged over 4 targets per game, so saying 5 tpg for a player who looks better doesn't seem a stretch.

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21 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I also like D Knox but in the role of the #2 TE.  R Gilliam is nowhere near a TE the Bills should be playing - we're contender status now - c'mon.  As for drafting a TE it usually takes several years to get a TE to the level wanted.

 

I would rather have Jonnu Smith the FA TE from Tenn than Ertz.  Jonnu would come over as less of a prima donna, better process guy, and by far a better run blocker. 

Jonnu has less milage on him and seems a better fit for the role I would like to see the new TE take on, which would be about 5-7 targets a game and around the 4th option, and someone who takes blocking seriously.   Jonnu should cost less than Ertz, and if Kroft and L Smith are jettisoned the overall incremental expense would be a couple million.

 

Jonnu would be a nice get this offseason.  A physical freak in the pass game and good run blocker.. He had a great start last season but Tenn went away from him and used him to help block the 2nd half of the season.

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42 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

 

Jonnu would be a nice get this offseason.  A physical freak in the pass game and good run blocker.. He had a great start last season but Tenn went away from him and used him to help block the 2nd half of the season.

Just looked at Jonnu's stats, they were less than I expected.   My impression of Jonnu had been a physical athlete that could catch and block.  The stats show as you mention a tail off in usage in the passing game.  And in big games, little passing production.  The stats are having me backtrack a little.  What happened?

 

With Ertz, I'm afraid he may be damaged goods and that you would end up paying a premium for the name - because several of the lesser teams could use a name acquisition.

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1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Just looked at Jonnu's stats, they were less than I expected.   My impression of Jonnu had been a physical athlete that could catch and block.  The stats show as you mention a tail off in usage in the passing game.  And in big games, little passing production.  The stats are having me backtrack a little.  What happened?

 

With Ertz, I'm afraid he may be damaged goods and that you would end up paying a premium for the name - because several of the lesser teams could use a name acquisition.

Tenn had injuries on the Oline and used Jonnu to block more once that happened.  I think he was criminally underused regardless.  

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On 2/14/2021 at 3:58 PM, GimmeSomeProcess said:

I think it’s extremely high on the list. He flat out said they need better production out of the position. 

 

So in a D&C article linked in the College Football forum, Sal gives the full quote from the Beane-meister's post season presser.

 

What I found of interest was the full quote from Beane's press conference:

Quote

“I thought it was up and down, to be honest with you,” Beane said when he was asked to assess the tight end group. “It was never where the opposing defense was like, ‘Man, we’ve got to stop their tight ends from going off.’ So we’ll look to that group. At the end of the day we’d love to have a guy like what we just faced (Kelce), but they don’t come very often. We’ve got some guys here we want to continue to develop and see what happens. Obviously if there’s ways to add competition, whether that’s in free agency or the draft, we would do that, as well.”

 

"We've got some guys here we want to continue to develop and see what happens"

"If there's ways to add competition, whether in FA or the draft, we would do that, as well."

 

That doesn't really sound to me like a guy with TE extremely high on his priority list, more like "hey, if someone drops a silver dollar at our feet, we'll certainly pick it up" - but YMMV.

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4 drops on 44 targets 

22 targets were received

4 were called dropped passes

2 fumbles .. 1 of which he was totally responsible for

 

But...

the year before he had 10 dropped passes.

 

he had a few tipped passes that went for int.

 

but he went from 10 dropped passes to 4. from a year ago.

 

we should continue to hope he improves with the same hopes we can do better at some point,,, maybe next year,,

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On 14/02/2021 at 1:45 PM, NewEra said:

😱

that said, I’d offer him 4-5 mill a year if the Eagles cut him

Why? 

16 hours ago, HeHateMe said:

Tenn had injuries on the Oline and used Jonnu to block more once that happened.  I think he was criminally underused regardless.  

He was basically competing with AJ Brown for the strong middle of the field receiving role. 

On 15/02/2021 at 6:11 PM, machine gun kelly said:

IDK, he was highly productive 2014-19.  He had injuries so you’d have to know is he really healthy, and what will he cost.  I was rooting his horn in August when we didn’t try and pull the trigger in Hooper who went to ATL.

 

Im not against it.  Trust Beane and we’ll be fine.

You can trust Beane and still think an Ertz signing is a terrible idea. 

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4 hours ago, Mountain Man said:

Why? 

He was basically competing with AJ Brown for the strong middle of the field receiving role. 

You can trust Beane and still think an Ertz signing is a terrible idea. 

Because I think k he’s better than you do apparently 

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Knox is the GM's nightmare because you traded UP to get him, he's a great guy and hard worker, but the ONE thing he has never shown is consistent hands and that might cost you a championship someday.

 

Such a great athlete, has made some amazing grabs, but for us to sit here and say "Oh he just needs to keep practicing catching the football" is naive. 

 

The dude owns a jugs machine and has caught 10,000 passes in practice.  Gotta consider his hand eye genetics might not be adequate for a reliable NFL pass catcher.

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11 minutes ago, Mountain Man said:

What makes him a worthwhile signing?


He’s an upgrade over Dawson Knox.  He’s an upgrade over Sweeney and Gilliam.

 

if you disagree, I believe that he’s better than you think he is.  Pretty cut and dry.  

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On 2/15/2021 at 9:09 AM, Einstein's Dog said:

I also like D Knox but in the role of the #2 TE.  R Gilliam is nowhere near a TE the Bills should be playing - we're contender status now - c'mon.  As for drafting a TE it usually takes several years to get a TE to the level wanted.

 

I would rather have Jonnu Smith the FA TE from Tenn than Ertz.  Jonnu would come over as less of a prima donna, better process guy, and by far a better run blocker. 

Jonnu has less milage on him and seems a better fit for the role I would like to see the new TE take on, which would be about 5-7 targets a game and around the 4th option, and someone who takes blocking seriously.   Jonnu should cost less than Ertz, and if Kroft and L Smith are jettisoned the overall incremental expense would be a couple million.

After reading this thread, I would assume the nfl FOs would realize that Ertz is washed up.  While I disagree with that sentiment, I do think Jonnu will cost around 9-10M aav and will cost more than Ertz. 

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8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

After reading this thread, I would assume the nfl FOs would realize that Ertz is washed up.  While I disagree with that sentiment, I do think Jonnu will cost around 9-10M aav and will cost more than Ertz. 

Just saw that top 50 piece that had Jonnu in your range of 9-10 and H Henry at 12.  I think Ertz would want to be in the 10 range and might get it.

 

Maybe G Everett is the $5 range is more realistic and better value.

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