Scouting The New England Patriots (Round 2)

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

A dominating win on the road in front of a national audience to become AFC East Champions and thanks to the our friends in Cincinnati, the #2 seed with two weeks to go. The Pats officially eliminated from the playoffs. The Jets winning a game and *possibly/hopefully* losing the chance to draft Trevor Lawrence. What a week.

 

Looking ahead, we're on the road again against the 6-8 New England Patriots who are coming off a crushing divisional loss to the Miami Dolphins. Same as the previous weeks, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Patriots' last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive, Defensive, and Special Teams Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics.***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings

 

 

December 6th- Week 13 Win AT Los Angeles Chargers (the Chargers (current record: 5-9) had the 19th ranked offense, 21st ranked defense, and 32nd ranked special teams) by a score of 45-0:

• Newton- 12/19 for 69 yards, 1 passing TD, 2 rushing TDs, and 0 INTs. Ran the ball 4 times on their first drive including a goal-line QB sneak for the TD and was effective as a running threat (48 yards) as LAC's pass rush was over-aggressive at times. As a passer though, Cam looks like just a shell of what he used to be though. His arm strength looks close to league-worst and the ball just looks wobbly off his arm even on short throws. To my amateur eye, he also appears to be letting go of the ball late at the top of his release so the ball is consistently snapping downwards. I also noticed that Newton is sliding down quickly to avoid taking hits in the pocket a bit prematurely. Stidham (2/3 for 61 yards and 1 TD) replaced Newton in the 4th quarter and made a nice throw to Olszewski for a 37-yard TD. Newton was only sacked once. 
• Pats Running Game- As I mentioned in my report from the first match up, Damien Harris (80 yards and 5.0 YPC) isn't particularly fast or athletic, but is a tough runner with good balance and almost never goes down on first contact, a typical Belichick RB who always falls forward. On NE's first drive of the game, Harris executed a screen play perfectly and had a nice run lined up as the QB in the Wildcat formation as well. This offense does miss Rex Burkhead though who is out injured for the year. White and Michel were non-factors in this game. 
• N'Keal Harry- 2 catches for 15 yards and 1 TD where he boxed out and beat Chris Harris Jr on a short comeback route although he got away with a fairly blatant push off. He hasn't lived up to his first round pick draft status, but his size is an advantage against almost any CB.
• Pats Run Defense- The Chargers seemed to be effective running the ball early on, but had to abandon the run due to game script. Continued to struggle when faced with jet sweeps/pre-snap motion and doesn't appear to have much speed outside of Josh Uche and Kyle Dugger (two young rookies I like a lot). 
• Pats Pass Defense- Pressured and confused Herbert (26/53 for 209 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs) into probably the worst performance of his young career. Gilmore had two key PBUs on early third downs. Winovich dropped into coverage and picked off Herbert on a cross-field throw after halftime and JC Jackson was the beneficiary of a throw that sailed on Herbert for a second INT. The Pats got a decent amount of pressure on Herbert (who looked like he was holding onto the ball for longer in this game) and sacked him three times (the best one was Wise winning on a bull rush and getting Herbert on 3rd down to force a long FG attempt which LAC missed early on). In general, the Pats still do a great job of forcing teams into third-and-long situations, then limiting you to the short RB or TE catch, and then rallying to the ball with two or three tacklers. 
• Miscellaneous- Gunner Olszewski is a very average returner in my view (relatively safe hands and more quick than fast), but the Chargers notoriously terrible/league-worst special teams unit was no match for an average return man and he took the Chargers first punt back for a 69 yard TD untouched and barely had to make a cut (he ripped off another 50 yard return later to give the Pats the ball at the LAC 15-yard line). Speaking of the LAC special teams, their kicker missed a 45 yard FG early and then had a 58 yard attempt blocked and returned for a TD with :00 left on the clock before halftime. New England committed 3 penalties for 15 yards. 

 

 

December 11th- Week 14 Loss AT Los Angeles Rams (the Rams (current record: 9-5) had the 7th ranked offense, 4th ranked defense, and 30th ranked special teams) by a score of 24-3:

• Newton- 9/16 for 119 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. Continues to be among the league leaders in passes batted down. Facing pressure off the right side, Cam threw a screen pass prematurely before Harris got his head around and Kenny Young took it back the other way for a 70+ yard pick-six. The Rams really limited Newton as a runner (just 16 yards on 7 carries) and as a passer in this game and were able to get pressure while still playing with sound contain technique. Stidham (5/7 for 27 yards) replaced Newton for a second straight week in the 4th quarter, but didn't make much of an impact. Newton was sacked SIX times and the Pats O-line looked unusually shaky. 
• Pats Running Game- Damien Harris (50 yards and 4.5 YPC) continued to impress me and had all of NE's most significant runs. White and Michel were non-factors again which has surprised me as White is normally such a weapon/receiving threat and you'd think Newton would be trying to hit more of those shorter throws/taking easy profits. 
• N'Keal Harry- 3 catches for 49 yards. Was able to highpoint and haul in a couple contested catches. NE's leading WR with Edelman out and the highlight of an otherwise poor passing game.
• Damiere Byrd (5 receptions for 48 yards) and Jakobi Meyers (4 receptions for 47 yards)- solid route runners with reliable hands. Byrd is more of a deep threat and Meyers has become Newton's safety valve on big downs.
• Pats Run Defense- Shocking performance, they were completely undone in this game and were dominated at the LoS. Cam Akers had his breakout game (171 yards and 5.9 YPC) running to all areas of the field. This was the first game where I saw the Patriots really give up a lot of interior rushing yards as well. 
• Pats Pass Defense- Limited Goff (16/25 for 137 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT), but LA got the yards they needed to to build a lead early and then let the run game take over. Adam Butler (#70) jumped off the tape at the DT spot and got pressure on Goff a few times. The Pats LBs didn't have the speed to be able to cover Higbee and Everett effectively, but the Pats front seven did a better job sniffing out some of the RB/WR screens LA tried to run (while they lack athleticism, they can make up for it by being smart and well-coached in these areas). While excellent in coverage as usual, Gilmore's tackling and overall effort in the run game is below-average (making business decisions!). The Pats only sacked Goff once (Byron Cowart) and weren't able to generate much pressure. Myles Bryant, a back up CB for the Pats, nearly had a pick-six in the first half that could have gotten them back in the game, but was ruled down by contact so just a normal INT in the end.
• Miscellaneous- It's noticeable that even after drafting two rookie TEs and bringing back Ryan Izzo, the Patriots are getting practically nothing out of that position group (EIGHT (!!!!) receiving yards combined in these three games). New England committed 5 penalties for 27 yards. 

 

 

December 20th- Week 15 Loss AT Miami (the Dolphins (current record: 9-5) had the 16th ranked offense, 11th ranked defense, and 4th ranked special teams) by a score of 22-12:

• Newton- 17/27 for 209 yards, 0 TDs, and 0 INTs. Probably his best passing performance in recent weeks and faked out Ogbah with a nice move to pick up a first down with his legs (38 rushing yards). Newton was sacked three times. 
• Pats Running Game- Damien Harris didn't play, but Sony Michel (74 yards and 7.4 YPC) filled in nicely on the ground and James White (4 catches for 52 yards) finally showed up in the passing game. 
• N'Keal Harry- 1 catch for 12 yards. Shut down by Byron Jones/Xavien Howard. 
• Damiere Byrd (3 receptions for 24 yards) and Jakobi Meyers (7 receptions for 111 yards)- Byrd was kept pretty quiet, but Meyers made a number of key catches and made a couple guys miss after the catch. 
• Pats Run Defense- Another poor performance in which Miami broke their 31 game streak without an 100-yard rusher. Salvon Ahmed (122 yards, 5.3 YPC, and 1 TD) found a lot of room to run off tackle and Matt Breida (86 yards and 7.2 YPC, he's been criminally under-used in the Dolphins offense before this game IMHO) broke off some big gains as well. Tua showed good mobility on a short TD run in the 4th quarter to take the lead for good. Miami had four drives of 10+ plays. 
• Pats Pass Defense- Miami did most of their damage on the ground with Tua dinking and dunking through the air (20/26 for 145 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT). New England was lucky to not have to deal with Gesicki, Parker, and Grant in this game. On third-and-goal, Winovich beat the Dolphins RT Robert Hunt inside and hit Tua's arm, leading to a JC Jackson INT. Gilmore went down with a non-contact injury in the first half and didn't return (now out for the season). Adrian Phillips lines up as a hybrid LB/DB in the New England defense and was very active, beating the RB on a early blitz and sacking Tua in the second quarter. The Pats sacked Tua twice (Adam Butler and Phillips), but weren't able to generate much pressure regularly. 
• Miscellaneous- NE led this game 6-0 at halftime. Jake Bailey was one of three Patriots voted to the Pro Bowl this week and is one of the NFL's best punters (here's to hoping he's their best player for a number of non-playoff years like the Brian Moorman Bills teams!). He constantly flips the field and wins the field position battle for the Pats, it's hard to believe their offense can't score more points. Nick Folk also has made 25 FGs in a row. Miami faked a punt on 4th-and-7 at midfield and their punter Matt Haack threw an impressive spiral across the field to pick up the first down, but the play was called back on an ineligible man downfield penalty. New England committed 2 penalties for 20 yards. 

 

 

December 29th - Week 16 New England Patriots (current record: 6-8, the Pats have the 24th ranked offense, 23rd ranked defense, and 1st ranked special teams) At Home vs Buffalo Bills (current record: 11-3, the Bills have the 6th ranked offense, 14th ranked defense, and 5th ranked special teams)

• Bills On Offense- New England's defense still has Belichick calling the plays, but they are lacking the top-end talent and athleticism of past years and now they have lost Gilmore for the season as well. The Patriots have looked fairly stout up the middle in most games, but have been manhandled on the edges versus the run recently. JC Jackson is probably playing like the Pats #1 this season over Gilmore, but Diggs is on fire and matches up against him better than any WR we've had before. Winovich and Uche are good young players who provide bend and speed on the edge, but no one else really inspires fear and based on previous games, I think there should be room for Josh to run. Beasley and Knox should have space to settle into over the middle and then the speed to pick up YAC. It will be important to take care of the football and stretch the range of the Pats defenders. In some ways, we could focus on the run or pass game and probably have the advantage, but I'd like to see us spread the Pats secondary out with 3 and 4 WR sets as usual. 

 

• Bills On Defense- Much like the first game against NE, a strategy of stacking the box to stop the run and forcing Newton to beat us with his arm seems like the best chance to get the sweep. Harris (apparently PFF's highest graded RB in the league) and White are good backs with complimentary skillsets, but Harris missed the Dolphins game and White doesn't seem to be getting many targets. Byrd's speed needs to be respected and Harry/Meyers are able to make plays here and there, but the question is whether Cam can get the ball to them accurately. Putting a spy on Newton to prevent him from moving the chains with his legs seems like a good idea as well. If we are able to stop the run, I don't believe that either Newton or Stidham can score on our defense and there should be a couple takeaways to be had. Our defense is playing so much better than in our first match up so that gives me a lot of confidence with this match up.

 

• On Special Teams- NE currently has the top ranked special teams in the league. Bailey and Folk are probably this season's best specialist combo. Their kick returner Olszewski seems like a average returner and has coughed up the ball a couple times, but has produced some big returns recently. This is the one aspect of the game where I feel like the Pats have the advantage. 

 

Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Division games on the road have a way of being closer than expected, but these look like two teams headed in opposite directions. While the Pats have an excellent special teams unit, the Bills should have a clear advantage on both offense and defense. 

 

All the best, stay healthy, and Go Bills!

[BubbaT]

The real question, to me, is whether it'll be Stidham or Newton or both. The Pats strategy on O will vary about 180 degrees based on who is in there. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by BubbaT

[quinnearlysghost88]

23 minutes ago, BubbaT said:

The real question, to me, is whether it'll be Stidham or Newton or both. The Pats strategy on O will vary about 180 degress based on who is in there. 

I never understood why they just didn’t have Stidham starting and Cam in a Taysom Hill capacity. Goal line and 3rd/4th and short situations. 

[Rubes]

Great writeup, thanks!

 

[TUBSTER]

With Gilmore out we should be able to tear into their secondary pretty well, but if the run is working like last time, don't force anything.  

Great write up!

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

9 hours ago, BubbaT said:

The real question, to me, is whether it'll be Stidham or Newton or both. The Pats strategy on O will vary about 180 degress based on who is in there. 

Fair point, I'm sure Belichick will keep the starting QB decision quiet until the last possible minute. Stidham has seen action in two of the three games listed above as well.

 

However, neither player scares me at this stage in their career and I think the Bills are well-positioned to stop either QB especially if we can limit the run and force them to throw the ball.

[JMF2006]

I don't think it matters which QB the Patsies play the Bills should destroy this demoralized squad.

 

If old Brainiac thought Stidham could get the job done he would have started from day one.

 

Captain Highliner ain't no fool and the QB that gives them the best chance to win plays.

 

That said he now gets a look at his youngster.

 

But what can you tell from a game where the Cheaters have nothing to gain but pride?

 

I think playing the kid all year would have been a better guage on his true ability.

 

Go Bills .......put a 50 spot on that pompous ass Belicheat.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Scouting the New England Patriots (Round 2):

1.  Shadow of their former selves.

2.  Probably still cheat.

[Whites Bay]

I just don't see the Pats* coming back from two scores down.  If the Bills can get a quick jump, this game could be over in the first quarter.

[Coach Tuesday]

I’m expecting Stidham.  The Pats need to see what they have there now that they’ve been eliminated.  Newton’s body looks completely shot at this point in the season, too, and I just don’t see any reason to put him back out there.

[Big Turk]

I would love to play Stidham. Bills should be able to make him look like Lock.

58 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Scouting the New England Patriots (Round 2):

1.  Shadow of their former selves.

2.  Probably still cheat.

 

Bills should do what the old Rodgers Packers(I think it was them?) team use to do..

They would sometimes tell the defense exactly what play was coming and they still wouldn't be able to stop it.

 

Now THAT is being confident in your ability to execute.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Big Turk

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Bills should do what the old Rodgers Packers(I think it was them?) team use to do..

They would sometimes tell the defense exactly what play was coming and they still wouldn't be able to stop it.

 

[BillsFan619]

On 12/23/2020 at 3:11 PM, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

A dominating win on the road in front of a national audience to become AFC East Champions and thanks to the our friends in Cincinnati, the #2 seed with two weeks to go. The Pats officially eliminated from the playoffs. The Jets winning a game and *possibly/hopefully* losing the chance to draft Trevor Lawrence. What a week.

 

Looking ahead, we're on the road again against the 6-8 New England Patriots who are coming off a crushing divisional loss to the Miami Dolphins. Same as the previous weeks, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Patriots' last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive, Defensive, and Special Teams Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics.***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings

 

 

December 6th- Week 13 Win AT Los Angeles Chargers (the Chargers (current record: 5-9) had the 19th ranked offense, 21st ranked defense, and 32nd ranked special teams) by a score of 45-0:

• Newton- 12/19 for 69 yards, 1 passing TD, 2 rushing TDs, and 0 INTs. Ran the ball 4 times on their first drive including a goal-line QB sneak for the TD and was effective as a running threat (48 yards) as LAC's pass rush was over-aggressive at times. As a passer though, Cam looks like just a shell of what he used to be though. His arm strength looks close to league-worst and the ball just looks wobbly off his arm even on short throws. To my amateur eye, he also appears to be letting go of the ball late at the top of his release so the ball is consistently snapping downwards. I also noticed that Newton is sliding down quickly to avoid taking hits in the pocket a bit prematurely. Stidham (2/3 for 61 yards and 1 TD) replaced Newton in the 4th quarter and made a nice throw to Olszewski for a 37-yard TD. Newton was only sacked once. 
• Pats Running Game- As I mentioned in my report from the first match up, Damien Harris (80 yards and 5.0 YPC) isn't particularly fast or athletic, but is a tough runner with good balance and almost never goes down on first contact, a typical Belichick RB who always falls forward. On NE's first drive of the game, Harris executed a screen play perfectly and had a nice run lined up as the QB in the Wildcat formation as well. This offense does miss Rex Burkhead though who is out injured for the year. White and Michel were non-factors in this game. 
• N'Keal Harry- 2 catches for 15 yards and 1 TD where he boxed out and beat Chris Harris Jr on a short comeback route although he got away with a fairly blatant push off. He hasn't lived up to his first round pick draft status, but his size is an advantage against almost any CB.
• Pats Run Defense- The Chargers seemed to be effective running the ball early on, but had to abandon the run due to game script. Continued to struggle when faced with jet sweeps/pre-snap motion and doesn't appear to have much speed outside of Josh Uche and Kyle Dugger (two young rookies I like a lot). 
• Pats Pass Defense- Pressured and confused Herbert (26/53 for 209 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs) into probably the worst performance of his young career. Gilmore had two key PBUs on early third downs. Winovich dropped into coverage and picked off Herbert on a cross-field throw after halftime and JC Jackson was the beneficiary of a throw that sailed on Herbert for a second INT. The Pats got a decent amount of pressure on Herbert (who looked like he was holding onto the ball for longer in this game) and sacked him three times (the best one was Wise winning on a bull rush and getting Herbert on 3rd down to force a long FG attempt which LAC missed early on). In general, the Pats still do a great job of forcing teams into third-and-long situations, then limiting you to the short RB or TE catch, and then rallying to the ball with two or three tacklers. 
• Miscellaneous- Gunner Olszewski is a very average returner in my view (relatively safe hands and more quick than fast), but the Chargers notoriously terrible/league-worst special teams unit was no match for an average return man and he took the Chargers first punt back for a 69 yard TD untouched and barely had to make a cut (he ripped off another 50 yard return later to give the Pats the ball at the LAC 15-yard line). Speaking of the LAC special teams, their kicker missed a 45 yard FG early and then had a 58 yard attempt blocked and returned for a TD with :00 left on the clock before halftime. New England committed 3 penalties for 15 yards. 

 

 

December 11th- Week 14 Loss AT Los Angeles Rams (the Rams (current record: 9-5) had the 7th ranked offense, 4th ranked defense, and 30th ranked special teams) by a score of 24-3:

• Newton- 9/16 for 119 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. Continues to be among the league leaders in passes batted down. Facing pressure off the right side, Cam threw a screen pass prematurely before Harris got his head around and Kenny Young took it back the other way for a 70+ yard pick-six. The Rams really limited Newton as a runner (just 16 yards on 7 carries) and as a passer in this game and were able to get pressure while still playing with sound contain technique. Stidham (5/7 for 27 yards) replaced Newton for a second straight week in the 4th quarter, but didn't make much of an impact. Newton was sacked SIX times and the Pats O-line looked unusually shaky. 
• Pats Running Game- Damien Harris (50 yards and 4.5 YPC) continued to impress me and had all of NE's most significant runs. White and Michel were non-factors again which has surprised me as White is normally such a weapon/receiving threat and you'd think Newton would be trying to hit more of those shorter throws/taking easy profits. 
• N'Keal Harry- 3 catches for 49 yards. Was able to highpoint and haul in a couple contested catches. NE's leading WR with Edelman out and the highlight of an otherwise poor passing game.
• Damiere Byrd (5 receptions for 48 yards) and Jakobi Meyers (4 receptions for 47 yards)- solid route runners with reliable hands. Byrd is more of a deep threat and Meyers has become Newton's safety valve on big downs.
• Pats Run Defense- Shocking performance, they were completely undone in this game and were dominated at the LoS. Cam Akers had his breakout game (171 yards and 5.9 YPC) running to all areas of the field. This was the first game where I saw the Patriots really give up a lot of interior rushing yards as well. 
• Pats Pass Defense- Limited Goff (16/25 for 137 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT), but LA got the yards they needed to to build a lead early and then let the run game take over. Adam Butler (#70) jumped off the tape at the DT spot and got pressure on Goff a few times. The Pats LBs didn't have the speed to be able to cover Higbee and Everett effectively, but the Pats front seven did a better job sniffing out some of the RB/WR screens LA tried to run (while they lack athleticism, they can make up for it by being smart and well-coached in these areas). While excellent in coverage as usual, Gilmore's tackling and overall effort in the run game is below-average (making business decisions!). The Pats only sacked Goff once (Byron Cowart) and weren't able to generate much pressure. Myles Bryant, a back up CB for the Pats, nearly had a pick-six in the first half that could have gotten them back in the game, but was ruled down by contact so just a normal INT in the end.
• Miscellaneous- It's noticeable that even after drafting two rookie TEs and bringing back Ryan Izzo, the Patriots are getting practically nothing out of that position group (EIGHT (!!!!) receiving yards combined in these three games). New England committed 5 penalties for 27 yards. 

 

 

December 20th- Week 15 Loss AT Miami (the Dolphins (current record: 9-5) had the 16th ranked offense, 11th ranked defense, and 4th ranked special teams) by a score of 22-12:

• Newton- 17/27 for 209 yards, 0 TDs, and 0 INTs. Probably his best passing performance in recent weeks and faked out Ogbah with a nice move to pick up a first down with his legs (38 rushing yards). Newton was sacked three times. 
• Pats Running Game- Damien Harris didn't play, but Sony Michel (74 yards and 7.4 YPC) filled in nicely on the ground and James White (4 catches for 52 yards) finally showed up in the passing game. 
• N'Keal Harry- 1 catch for 12 yards. Shut down by Byron Jones/Xavien Howard. 
• Damiere Byrd (3 receptions for 24 yards) and Jakobi Meyers (7 receptions for 111 yards)- Byrd was kept pretty quiet, but Meyers made a number of key catches and made a couple guys miss after the catch. 
• Pats Run Defense- Another poor performance in which Miami broke their 31 game streak without an 100-yard rusher. Salvon Ahmed (122 yards, 5.3 YPC, and 1 TD) found a lot of room to run off tackle and Matt Breida (86 yards and 7.2 YPC, he's been criminally under-used in the Dolphins offense before this game IMHO) broke off some big gains as well. Tua showed good mobility on a short TD run in the 4th quarter to take the lead for good. Miami had four drives of 10+ plays. 
• Pats Pass Defense- Miami did most of their damage on the ground with Tua dinking and dunking through the air (20/26 for 145 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT). New England was lucky to not have to deal with Gesicki, Parker, and Grant in this game. On third-and-goal, Winovich beat the Dolphins RT Robert Hunt inside and hit Tua's arm, leading to a JC Jackson INT. Gilmore went down with a non-contact injury in the first half and didn't return (now out for the season). Adrian Phillips lines up as a hybrid LB/DB in the New England defense and was very active, beating the RB on a early blitz and sacking Tua in the second quarter. The Pats sacked Tua twice (Adam Butler and Phillips), but weren't able to generate much pressure regularly. 
• Miscellaneous- NE led this game 6-0 at halftime. Jake Bailey was one of three Patriots voted to the Pro Bowl this week and is one of the NFL's best punters (here's to hoping he's their best player for a number of non-playoff years like the Brian Moorman Bills teams!). He constantly flips the field and wins the field position battle for the Pats, it's hard to believe their offense can't score more points. Nick Folk also has made 25 FGs in a row. Miami faked a punt on 4th-and-7 at midfield and their punter Matt Haack threw an impressive spiral across the field to pick up the first down, but the play was called back on an ineligible man downfield penalty. New England committed 2 penalties for 20 yards. 

 

 

December 29th - Week 16 New England Patriots (current record: 6-8, the Pats have the 24th ranked offense, 23rd ranked defense, and 1st ranked special teams) At Home vs Buffalo Bills (current record: 11-3, the Bills have the 6th ranked offense, 14th ranked defense, and 5th ranked special teams)

• Bills On Offense- New England's defense still has Belichick calling the plays, but they are lacking the top-end talent and athleticism of past years and now they have lost Gilmore for the season as well. The Patriots have looked fairly stout up the middle in most games, but have been manhandled on the edges versus the run recently. JC Jackson is probably playing like the Pats #1 this season over Gilmore, but Diggs is on fire and matches up against him better than any WR we've had before. Winovich and Uche are good young players who provide bend and speed on the edge, but no one else really inspires fear and based on previous games, I think there should be room for Josh to run. Beasley and Knox should have space to settle into over the middle and then the speed to pick up YAC. It will be important to take care of the football and stretch the range of the Pats defenders. In some ways, we could focus on the run or pass game and probably have the advantage, but I'd like to see us spread the Pats secondary out with 3 and 4 WR sets as usual. 

 

• Bills On Defense- Much like the first game against NE, a strategy of stacking the box to stop the run and forcing Newton to beat us with his arm seems like the best chance to get the sweep. Harris (apparently PFF's highest graded RB in the league) and White are good backs with complimentary skillsets, but Harris missed the Dolphins game and White doesn't seem to be getting many targets. Byrd's speed needs to be respected and Harry/Meyers are able to make plays here and there, but the question is whether Cam can get the ball to them accurately. Putting a spy on Newton to prevent him from moving the chains with his legs seems like a good idea as well. If we are able to stop the run, I don't believe that either Newton or Stidham can score on our defense and there should be a couple takeaways to be had. Our defense is playing so much better than in our first match up so that gives me a lot of confidence with this match up.

 

• On Special Teams- NE currently has the top ranked special teams in the league. Bailey and Folk are probably this season's best specialist combo. Their kick returner Olszewski seems like a average returner and has coughed up the ball a couple times, but has produced some big returns recently. This is the one aspect of the game where I feel like the Pats have the advantage. 

 

Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Division games on the road have a way of being closer than expected, but these look like two teams headed in opposite directions. While the Pats have an excellent special teams unit, the Bills should have a clear advantage on both offense and defense. 

 

All the best, stay healthy, and Go Bills!

This is great, bro! Thanks for taking the time.

 

Curious, how long does the prep work and write-ups take?

[PrimeTime101]

23 hours ago, TUBSTER said:

With Gilmore out we should be able to tear into their secondary pretty well, but if the run is working like last time, don't force anything.  

Great write up!

I disagree. we ran to much that game and we could not put it away till the last play of the game. We were hurt with injuries that last NE game.. With Gilmore out you tear them up in the air just like we did to Denver.  NE second CB nor there backup or slot CB is of threat.. pick them apart get a lead.. then play with the run game.

[JMF2006]

19 hours ago, Big Turk said:

I would love to play Stidham. Bills should be able to make him look like Lock.

 

Bills should do what the old Rodgers Packers(I think it was them?) team use to do..

They would sometimes tell the defense exactly what play was coming and they still wouldn't be able to stop it.

 

Now THAT is being confident in your ability to execute.

 

The 9ers and Squeelers both said they knew what the Bills were going to do they just couldn't sop them.

[TUBSTER]

9 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I disagree. we ran to much that game and we could not put it away till the last play of the game. We were hurt with injuries that last NE game.. With Gilmore out you tear them up in the air just like we did to Denver.  NE second CB nor there backup or slot CB is of threat.. pick them apart get a lead.. then play with the run game.

Our defense coming around is going to be the difference maker in this game I think.  Offense and defense will feed off of each other and we should be firing on all cylinders.  Personally, I'd love for Allen and Diggs to have huge days for my fantasy football championship game 🤣

[Freddie's Dead]

I am looking for a beatdown of epic proportions.  The only thing I'm concerned about is McD taking the foot off the gas up 28.  I want bombs away up 28, like Belicheat and Marcia did to us constantly the last 20 years.  It's time to start the healing, the way that only a 40+ point victory over the Cheats can provide.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

On 12/25/2020 at 8:29 AM, BillsFan619 said:

This is great, bro! Thanks for taking the time.

 

Curious, how long does the prep work and write-ups take?

Thanks very much man, definitely appreciate the feedback from you and others.

 

This is my first season where I've started to write this series if you can call it that and it usually take around 3.5-4 hours per week. Something I enjoy doing and hopefully it adds some value to this Bills community! 

[Punching Bag]

On 12/23/2020 at 7:24 PM, BubbaT said:

The real question, to me, is whether it'll be Stidham or Newton or both. The Pats strategy on O will vary about 180 degrees based on who is in there. 

 

From reports Stidham is not doing very well but some of it may be due to current pandemic issues and putting Stidham in at this point will not help him.

New England is likely going to go with Newton and try to correct his issues during off-season while they either get a bridge QB, a young QB with potential or both. 

[BillsFan619]

3 hours ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Thanks very much man, definitely appreciate the feedback from you and others.

 

This is my first season where I've started to write this series if you can call it that and it usually take around 3.5-4 hours per week. Something I enjoy doing and hopefully it adds some value to this Bills community! 

Thanks for sharing, bro. I figured it would take a while. Thanks for taking the time.
 

Yes, it definitely adds value. Keep up the great work, bro!

[TroutDog]

On 12/23/2020 at 6:11 PM, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Damien Harris (80 yards and 5.0 YPC) isn't particularly fast or athletic, but is a tough runner with good balance and almost never goes down on first contact

Harris is an excellent rookie RB. Scary to write anything negative about him from my perspective (disclaimer: I’m a Bama fan and watched his entire career). 
 

With that being said, the Bills should be able to dictate the flow of this game. They’re such a superior team, from coaching to players, that if McD stokes the fire properly, this should be another blow out. 
 

Fantastic write up as per usual! 

[Rocky Landing]

It's often been said that what Belichick* does is to take away whatever their opponent does best, and then adjust their scheme to exploit their opponent's weaknesses. Game planning for the Pats* meant knowing thyself first. How they played was a reflection of how you played, and that made them very hard to predict. Coaches couldn't just watch what the Pats* did the previous week, and plan accordingly. They had to be more introspective. 

 

In week two, we beat them doing what we don't do well-- running the football. The Pats* attacked us exploiting what we weren't doing well-- stopping the run. In the end, the Pats* couldn't pull it off in what looked like one of our least impressive wins of the season (IMO). 

 

But, this week is different. The Patriot* way was always predicated on being able to do numerous things well. Now, there just aren't that many things they can do. They will try to run on us, including Cam Newton, and hope that we still have trouble stopping the run. We won't. If they pass on us, we'll take them apart. Cam Newton passing to N'Keal "Straight Line" Harry, just isn't that threatening. They'll try to limit Diggs, and take away Beasley's crossing routes. They won't be able to. They just don't have the personnel to defend the entire field, and wherever they can't defend, we will exploit. 

 

Could it be that for the first time in the Belichick* era, the Pats* will be, more or less, predictable?