zow2 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 (edited) I'm too conservative to be a modern day coach... The key is early in games. If my team scratches and claws it's way down to the 7 yards line, and it's 4th and 2 with 10 minutes to go in the FIRST Qtr, I kick the chip shot FG. Just take the points. All these NFL games seem to come down to 3-6 point margins. So many clubs this year are blowing off the easy 3 and getting nothing. I would start going for 4th downs, if necessary, in the 2nd half when my team is down and the situation (momentum) is critical. Thankfully McDermott has made the right decision more often than not recently. Edited December 13, 2020 by zow2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Hard to win with 3s in the modern NFL. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, zow2 said: I'm too conservative to be a modern day coach... The key is early in games. If my team scratches and claws it's way down to the 7 yards line, and it's 4th and 2 with 10 minutes to go in the FIRST Qtr, I kick the chip shot FG. Just take the points. All these NFL games seem to come down to 3-6 point margins. So many clubs this year are blowing off the easy 3 and getting nothing. I would start going for 4th downs, if necessary, in the 2nd half when my team is down and the situation (momentum) is critical. Thankfully McDermott has made the right decision more often than not recently. The numbers have suggested going for it on 4th and short is way better than Meathead Gym Teacher HC’s used to think. The NFL has woken up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QLBillsFan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 A guy named Cowboy has data on this.Old school is to take FG but in this era not the right move. Bills are actually #1 in league in 4th makes and probability of success. So Bills are actually cutting edge! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klos63 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Coaches realize they are more likely to convert 4th and 2's than not. Do that twice a game and it's 14 points over 6. It's a calculated chance they think is in their favor. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RangerDave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I think a part of it is calculating how good your offense is versus the defense you are playing, how much confidence you have in your offense, how much you think not making the first down will affect your offense's confidence, how good your defense is playing, and how far the opposing team would have to drive to get points if you don't get the first down. In other words, I think you should treat every situation differently, depending on circumstances. But, who knows, maybe coaches are just going for it more in any situation because it seems to be working! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Absolutely not trying to be snarky but if you admit that your approach is too conservative, aren't you basically saying you don't agree with your own point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Hard to win with 3s in the modern NFL. Exactly...I would rather go for a TD and worry about needing a FG late in a game if I have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fleezoid Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Didn't the Bills win an 18-10 game not too long ago? All FGs. Of course, the counter argument is the fact it was against the Jets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenReceipts Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, zow2 said: I'm too conservative to be a modern day coach... The key is early in games. If my team scratches and claws it's way down to the 7 yards line, and it's 4th and 2 with 10 minutes to go in the FIRST Qtr, I kick the chip shot FG. Just take the points. All these NFL games seem to come down to 3-6 point margins. So many clubs this year are blowing off the easy 3 and getting nothing. I would start going for 4th downs, if necessary, in the 2nd half when my team is down and the situation (momentum) is critical. Thankfully McDermott has made the right decision more often than not recently. Recently? Against 49ers, 4th and Goal at the 1 on the 1st drive, he went for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, JoshAllenReceipts said: Recently? Against 49ers, 4th and Goal at the 1 on the 1st drive, he went for it. Which was the right decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, zow2 said: I'm too conservative to be a modern day coach... The key is early in games. If my team scratches and claws it's way down to the 7 yards line, and it's 4th and 2 with 10 minutes to go in the FIRST Qtr, I kick the chip shot FG. Just take the points. All these NFL games seem to come down to 3-6 point margins. So many clubs this year are blowing off the easy 3 and getting nothing. I would start going for 4th downs, if necessary, in the 2nd half when my team is down and the situation (momentum) is critical. Thankfully McDermott has made the right decision more often than not recently. 1. It’s early, you can take these chances and still recover. If you have confidence in 3 and out you likrly get ball back around mid field. 2. 4-1 4-2 on positive side of ball have always been takes shot and go for it. Especially true at goalie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YattaOkasan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, Fleezoid said: Didn't the Bills win an 18-10 game not too long ago? All FGs. Of course, the counter argument is the fact it was against the Jets. Yup and that’s the situational part of it. The jets were not gonna be able to sustain so we didn’t need to go for it. Also if you convert at 50% it’s 7 points to 6. So the probability is you will come out ahead in most cases if you go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 (edited) Also...using advanced analytics...I would tend to bet in your example, if the ball is on the 7 yard line, the expected points would be better going for it than by kicking the FG. I would also tend to bet that going for it and not making it, leaving the ball on the 7 yard line would not be much worse than getting 3 points and kicking off because the expected points for a team starting at the 7 is going to be much lower than the expected points for a team starting from their 25 after you kickoff post FG. So you are probably gaining 1 to 1.5 points with the worse field position so by kicking a FG there you are really only gaining 1.5 points... Edited December 13, 2020 by matter2003 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just weighing the risk vs the reward. Analytics show teams should go for it on 4th more often than they do, and thankfully the Bills have been great at it. Leading the league in both 3rd & 4th down conversions (80%+ on 4th if I recall), and if it fails, you have a strong defense to give you a good chance to retain great field position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Confidence in their offense + 7 > 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I'd go for it under 3 yards. Or if near goal line 4th down under 5 yards. Anything over those yards depending the situation field goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Eagles just made a good argument for it.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Eagles just got a td going for it going for it 4th td about 10-15 yards for scoring. Just now, LeGOATski said: Eagles just made a good argument for it.... Ya they did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 hours ago, JoshAllenReceipts said: Recently? Against 49ers, 4th and Goal at the 1 on the 1st drive, he went for it. Uh yeah, on the 1 yard line is the right call in a 0-0 game. On the 50 yard line, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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