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How much is Josh going to cost if hes a top 8 QB by next year?


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1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Serious question, besides Brady what other QB has taken a discount contract? Not Mahomes, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, or Brees. Not even Ryan. I cant think of another. It just isn't a thing that happens outside of Brady-Belichick

And of them how many have won an additional Super Bowl after the non discount contract? A minority of them. 

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Its actually really nice to be discussing a second contract with a legit franchise QB instead of convincing ourselves that some teams backup has a chance to stabilize the position for us

A lot of wishful and selfish thinking in this thread.   We'd all love for Josh to give the team a discount, but no way should he. Nor should he roll us over the coals.   But there

Agreed, but I could see Allen becoming the type of player that would take a cut to sign a FA that he knows would strengthen the team

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A lot of wishful and selfish thinking in this thread.

 

We'd all love for Josh to give the team a discount, but no way should he. Nor should he roll us over the coals.

 

But there is no reason for a professional athlete playing in a multi-Billion dollar league, risking his body every week, should give his employer a discount.

 

We can sign him to a fair deal and still have money to build the team around him.

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1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:


The sweet spot for young QB extensions is either the offseason before the final year of their rookie deal or the offseason before their 5th year option (assuming they were a first round pick).  Let this season play out.  If we are still sold on him, then move forward.  If there is a cause for concern - whether it is play or COVID related - then we have another season thanks to the fifth year option.  It’s just not a good idea to push things down the road so far that we are looking at possibly having to use the franchise tag.  

 

Yes.  I would go so far as to say that the OR (before their 5th year option) is more for teams not quite sure about the QB OR the QB thinking they deserve

more money than was offered (aka Dak).

 

The recent QBs using the norm you described are:  Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes ALL had their 5th year options

picked up in April (respectively to the year drafted).  ALL signed a contract EXTENSION (I capitalize this because it's just the way it's done.) before

the start of their last year of the rookie contract.

 

Josh Allen will follow EXACTLY this scenario.  He will not hold out and the only way Beane and OBD do not follow the norm will be if he suffers a 

devastating injury or the wheels completely fall off in the next 7 games (which will not happen).

 

The average per year will be 40 million (plus of minus a couple million) once again depending on the results of this season.

The amount guaranteed will probably be an average of what the 4 other QBs got.

 

The only variables in this scenario are:

1.  How long is the contract?  I think a minimum of 5 and maybe more.

2.  How OBD wants to roll out the yearly cap hit.  They have a lot of options there.

 

So @BarleyNY, you and I will be right and any deviation of that is a long shot.

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6 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Whoa there. That’s nuts unless it’s a 10 year extension structured like Mahomes’ deal.  Even Mahomes is only averaging $28.3M AAV over the next 5 seasons.  Per Spotrac Mahomes 2020-2024 seasons have a cash payout of $141.5M  $28.3M/5=$28.3M 


Mahomes new money average was right around 40 IIRC. You know that everyone’s price is going to go up once the COVIDs clear up.

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16 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Yes.  I would go so far as to say that the OR (before their 5th year option) is more for teams not quite sure about the QB OR the QB thinking they deserve

more money than was offered (aka Dak).

 

The recent QBs using the norm you described are:  Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes ALL had their 5th year options

picked up in April (respectively to the year drafted).  ALL signed a contract EXTENSION (I capitalize this because it's just the way it's done.) before

the start of their last year of the rookie contract.

 

Josh Allen will follow EXACTLY this scenario.  He will not hold out and the only way Beane and OBD do not follow the norm will be if he suffers a 

devastating injury or the wheels completely fall off in the next 7 games (which will not happen).

 

The average per year will be 40 million (plus of minus a couple million) once again depending on the results of this season.

The amount guaranteed will probably be an average of what the 4 other QBs got.

 

The only variables in this scenario are:

1.  How long is the contract?  I think a minimum of 5 and maybe more.

2.  How OBD wants to roll out the yearly cap hit.  They have a lot of options there.

 

So @BarleyNY, you and I will be right and any deviation of that is a long shot.


I agree.  The “before the 5th year option season” I would pertain to some bad situations.  I don’t want to go too far down these roads, but the scenarios (however unlikely) where I’d kick the can down the road one more season are:

- catastrophic injury this season or any injury that keeps Allen from playing in the playoffs

- cancellation of season/playoffs due to COVID

- significant fall off of Allen’s performance in regular season

- failure of Allen to perform under pressure in playoffs

 

I do not expect those to be issues, but if they are then I’m giving it one more season. 

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31 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

If he's a top 8 QB by the end of NEXT year?  Who are the 8+ ahead of him NOW?

I’ve got him as a tier 2 guy. I think you could make an argument to shuffle any of them around a little, but this is how I have them right now, based on current ability/production.  

 

Tier 1:

 

Maholmes

Wilson

Rodgers

 

Tier 2:

Breese 

Brady

Roethlisberger

Allen

Watson

Burrow (yes, I have him here after half a year, sue me)

Dak (Healthy)

Jackson (results, not prototypes, the guy is the MVP for a reason)

 

Tier 2.5

Murray

Ryan

Stafford

Tannehill

Carr

Goff

 

Tier 3:

Bridgewater

Cousins

Jimmy G

Herbert

Wentz

Fitz

Rivers

 

The rest are place holders or so often injured (Darnold) they don’t really matter and Tua doesn’t have enough work in for me to try to place him.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:


Here was my breakdown of it at the time:

 

 

 

You are correct.  How fans want to parse out the deals of all franchise QB post rookie contracts is a fun way to look at.

If I was to predict (with the Covid stuff included) Josh Allen's cap hits it would be like this.

2021:  $7 million (last year of rookie deal)

2022:  $27 million (5th year option.  Mahomes got $24.8 but his contract and Watson's will drive that up)

2023:  1st year of new money (lets say it's 40 average) will be about 80% of $40) - $32 Million

2024:  2nd year of new money (90% of average) - $36 Million

2025 : 3rd year of new money (100% of average) - $40 Million

2026:  4th year of new money (110% of average) - 44 Million

2027:  5th year of new money (120% of average) - 48 Million

 

I'm not saying this will be exact but this is how all the QB 2nd contract Franchise QBs are structured.

I don't think I'm smarter than anyone I'm just going by the norm.

11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:


I agree.  The “before the 5th year option season” I would pertain to some bad situations.  I don’t want to go too far down these roads, but the scenarios (however unlikely) where I’d kick the can down the road one more season are:

- catastrophic injury this season or any injury that keeps Allen from playing in the playoffs

- cancellation of season/playoffs due to COVID

- significant fall off of Allen’s performance in regular season

- failure of Allen to perform under pressure in playoffs

 

I do not expect those to be issues, but if they are then I’m giving it one more season. 

 

Exactly.  I would add that its probably what every team thinks using the norm.

The only other deviation is Josh holding out like Dak.  I give that chance at less than 1%.

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There are two more years before you have to think about the big, long-term contract. I'm a huge Josh Allen supporter after NOT being a fan of the Draft pick on that fateful April night. Truth is, and I've said it a few times on this board, that I wanted either Darnold or Rosen depending on how the board fell. Once Darnold was gone, I was hoping for Rosen but after taking a few minutes to talk to myself (that happens a lot), I had already put my trust in Beane and his team of scouts and evaluators so I decided to - yes - Trust the Process.

 

Every moment after that, I kept hoping and believing that it was the right pick and at the end of his first year, I was convinced of it....the final 4 games of that year is what really sold me. Then, Beane et. al. put some good Offensive Linemen in for Josh, brought in Smoke and Beasley and we saw marked improvement. Then, with Diggs, the same O-line and another Off-season of dedication to mechanics and improvement, I had high hopes and so far, it's been better than advertised. 

 

I said all of that to say, you keep the team friendly contracts when you can - and presuming the Bills exercise the 5th year option on Josh, you've got two more seasons before you have to put pen to paper on a mega-deal. Most likely, they get it done between the 4th and 5th year with some team Cap help. But also as others have said, I don't think Josh is going to drain the Pegulas dry. I definitely see him being paid around the 5th best QB in the league if he continues on his trajectory and pace, but I can see a slight reduction albeit still pretty darn expensive (as it should be) contract to help him and the team. Right now that is Goff at $33 million, best I can see from a quick Google search and while Josh is almost certain to get a little more than that, unless like Mahomes he wins a Super Bowl and MVP (crossing my fingers and praying again), then around $37-$38 million in 2022 makes sense to me. Plus, the Cap is scheduled to go down next year for the first time but I think if life returns to normal, it goes up again. 

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I’m sure and hope he gets what he wants and the team wants but it would be nice to see the NFL in the next bargaining agreement have the QB contract count only 50% of the charge against the cap that would allow teams to keep and pay most players as they deserve and not have to turn over the roster and have to use the hope and pray method once you start paying the QB.

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55 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

And....?

 

They all have an agent they pay to get them max money. 

 

Not all players and agents look solely for max money.  I don't know what type of agent Josh has, but if he's a "we have to get max money" guy, it will likely only drive his price up even if Josh wants to take a discount.

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It all depends on what motivates him, if his goal is to make as much money as humanly possible he could probably "break" the team. If his motivation is to be the foundation of a dynasty, he'll still make a butt ton of money, but it will be on a team friendly deal. One can't fault him for either approach, it all depends on what's important to him. I think the "family atmosphere" of the team appeals to him and I think the outpouring of sympathy by the fans over his grandmothers death appeals to him, and I think the people of western New York in general appeals to him. IMHO it all boils down to the front office's attitude toward his next contract. If they approach it like a business decision and they refuse to pay him a penny more than they need to sooner than they need to, he'd be wise to seek a market value deal (which is probably more than the Bills are willing to pay). If the front office approaches him as early as allows to "reward" his growth, he'd be wise to seek a team friendly deal that would preclude Beane managing the remaining roster to accommodate Allen's contract.

 

I'll admit I'm an old fogey and the dollar amounts they throw around these days just boggles my mind. I remember my dad complaining that when the Jets paid Namath $250,000 it would ruin the game of football because the players were getting paid so much. 

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Just now, Doc said:

 

Not all players and agents look solely for max money.  I don't know what type of agent Josh has, but if he's a "we have to get max money" guy, it will likely only drive his price up even if Josh wants to take a discount.

 

 

Say what?

 

Agents do their client's bidding.  They can't argue against the client's wishes doc.  The client signs the contract that the client agrees to, not the agent.

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Mahomes is a SB winner and a league MVP.  There is no reason to think Allen's next contract is going to be anywhere near Mahomes, unless he matches those accomplishments in the next 1-2 years or prior to negotiations beginning.

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Josh seems to be a humble kid who's only concern is to be great at what he does. I can totally see him taking a team flexible deal to make sure they have the money to keep pieces around him in the same manner Brady did in NE. It will also depend on the overall impact of Covid on the salary cap as well. Say things start to return to a bit of normal next year, I could see Josh taking less overall $$$ with more of it being guaranteed. Something like 5 years, in the $180,000,000 range with $160,000,000 of it being guaranteed. That would also give him the chance to get one more big contract while in his prime. We shall see. 

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