Are our WRs not getting separation? Or is it Allen?

[Mat68]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

The point is to have a legit over the top guy. 
We honestly don’t know what he can do because Josh wasn’t able to throw deep with any sort of accuracy before this year.

Ted Ginn sucked until he got with Cam and all of a sudden he became a bonafide deep threat.

One deep TD to McKenzie and this O becomes less defendable at all distances if we are healthy.

Brown and Diggs are.  Diggs has been the most productive wr deep over the last 3 years.  A guy how cant catch it on the backend of the play is useless.  Teams are playing back.  If they can run the ball it will open up the deep ball.  

[CincyBillsFan]

There's a number of reasons for the drop in productivity including:

 

*  Weather.  Passing conditions were bad in 2 of the last 4 games.  If Sunday had been 65, dry and not much wind we're looking at a completely different discussion today.

 

*  Teams are defensing the Bills differently and focusing on taking away their WR's

 

*  Before yesterday the Bills rushing game didn't scare anyone.  This could change after both RB's had a good game.

 

*  The Bills have the weakest pass catching TE group in the NFL particularity when Knox is out.  This simplifies how you defense the Bill's passing game in ways you can't do with KC or Seattle.

 

I think that teams approached defensing the Bills early in the season thinking that they were facing the 2019 version of Allen.  The reality is that the 2020 version is much better and Allen carved them up through the first 4 weeks (and 3 of those teams currently have winning records so it wasn't just that the schedule was easy).  Now teams are defensing us with an eye to our weakness which is  at TE and RB - not Allen. 

 

If what we saw from our RB's is real with Mongo back in the lineup and Knox comes back from covid then we might see the Bills go on another offensive tear.  It will just look a little different then the one we saw in the first 4 games.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TH3]

This is concerning....Josh on the hot seat!!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Rubes said:

One trend I've noticed in the last 3-4 games is that Allen has a huge amount of time in the pocket, but is just not pulling the trigger—at least not until very late. I can't quite figure out if it's Allen not trusting his receivers, or if the receivers just aren't getting separation. It seems incredibly unlikely that it's the latter, given the quality of our WRs and what we saw in the first few weeks. Especially this last game, against a NE**** team that was down their best CB and really had sub-par DBs.

 

It sure seemed like the first 4 games Josh was getting rid of it early, and trusting his WRs to make the catch even in tight windows. Is he just not doing it as much now? Or are our WRs just not getting the separation they were getting earlier in the season? Just baffling to me.

 

 

What are you watching that leads you to believe that Allen has a "huge amount of time in the pocket"?

[ProcessAccepted]

2 hours ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Teams have figured out how to gameplay for us. They’re deploying more DBs. Working out of dime and nickel. They’re giving us underneath stuff. We were so pass centric for first couple of weeks. We need to integrate more balance. Yesterday was a good sign to the rest of the league that we will run effectively if you try to play small and defend the pass. 

Agreed. Having Jon Feliciano back will really help. He made a huge difference yesterday

[brianthomas]

There are NextGen stats that show separation & league average is 2.7 yards.

Gabriel Davis leads the way with 3.8

Cole Beasley is next with 3.6

Stephon Diggs has 2.8

John Brown has 2.8

 

So all our wrs are above the league average or average.

 

Source: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

[Hebert19]

2 hours ago, Rubes said:

One trend I've noticed in the last 3-4 games is that Allen has a huge amount of time in the pocket, but is just not pulling the trigger—at least not until very late. I can't quite figure out if it's Allen not trusting his receivers, or if the receivers just aren't getting separation. It seems incredibly unlikely that it's the latter, given the quality of our WRs and what we saw in the first few weeks. Especially this last game, against a NE**** team that was down their best CB and really had sub-par DBs.

 

It sure seemed like the first 4 games Josh was getting rid of it early, and trusting his WRs to make the catch even in tight windows. Is he just not doing it as much now? Or are our WRs just not getting the separation they were getting earlier in the season? Just baffling to me.

 

They are dropping 7 into coverage.  Answer is its neither. 

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, Rubes said:

One trend I've noticed in the last 3-4 games is that Allen has a huge amount of time in the pocket, but is just not pulling the trigger—at least not until very late. I can't quite figure out if it's Allen not trusting his receivers, or if the receivers just aren't getting separation. It seems incredibly unlikely that it's the latter, given the quality of our WRs and what we saw in the first few weeks. Especially this last game, against a NE**** team that was down their best CB and really had sub-par DBs.

 

It sure seemed like the first 4 games Josh was getting rid of it early, and trusting his WRs to make the catch even in tight windows. Is he just not doing it as much now? Or are our WRs just not getting the separation they were getting earlier in the season? Just baffling to me.

 

Or could it be bad weather, injuries and heavy numbers of DBs.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, Rubes said:

 

Actually, I think the main consequence is that drives take longer, which means fewer drives per game and fewer opportunities for TDs.

 

A little like our strategy against KC and the Giants strategy against the Bills in SBXXV, keeping pass-happy teams running the ball helps keep the scoring low and the game tighter.

 

^^ this is big too...were averaging like 2-3 drives on offense less per game than our team last year which had a defense that forced a lot of three and outs...I think the belichick onside kick decision was evidence enough that the pats d was barely holding on...luckily for them our d was barely holding on too lol. The defenses are trying to force Josh to try to do too much to extend drives and outside of the titans game hes been a lot better in that regard...I think Josh looks 'tense' because he knows the offense has to score almost every time out since our defense can't stop anybody

[Monty98]

So just piling on to what some other people have said. Our scheme is most definitely and vertical passing scheme right now. The issue with a vertical passing scheme is you need to use it open up the run or be able to run and set up play action. Until yesterday we weren't able to effectively run the ball and attempt to freeze the defence. When you're no threat to run the ball you can rush 4 and drop 7 into coverage and bracket certain WR like Diggs or Brown. Our most effective plays were the Smoke Screen to Brown and some underneath routes, and Moss running power or off tackle a la his TD run. I think there's a slight correlation between Feliciano coming back and some production but now we need Morse healthy

[VW82]

I think some of it is Josh is still a little slow sometimes to decipher coverage and make quick decisions especially vs. dime and nickel.

 

On the plus side, all this zone coverage help mitigate the accuracy issues as Josh can wait for someone like Beasley to find the soft spots and sit in them. Not everything has to be perfectly placed with the receiver running full speed. 

[Augie]

32 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

There are NextGen stats that show separation & league average is 2.7 yards.

Gabriel Davis leads the way with 3.8

Cole Beasley is next with 3.6

Stephon Diggs has 2.8

John Brown has 2.8

 

So all our wrs are above the league average or average.

 

Source: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

 

That’s interesting. I suppose it helps Davis as he will generally get the weakest DB as teams try to take away the “known threats”.

 

I think it was a little like being on the other side of the Chiefs game. We wanted to drop a bunch of guys into coverage to slow Mahomes which allowed a lot of rushing yards. We showed we can run the ball against that approach. Hopefully that becomes a consistent thing, especially if we can get back to full strength on the OLine. 

[billsbackto81]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

There's a number of reasons for the drop in productivity including:

 

*  Weather.  Passing conditions were bad in 2 of the last 4 games.  If Sunday had been 65, dry and not much wind we're looking at a completely different discussion today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was going bring this up as well. I hate using weather as an excuse but the 2 worst games Josh has had stat wise to date are the KC and NE game. Both were played in inclement conditions. When the weather is right, so is Allen. We need the run game and defense to do their part. 

[ILBillsfan]

53 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

There are NextGen stats that show separation & league average is 2.7 yards.

Gabriel Davis leads the way with 3.8

Cole Beasley is next with 3.6

Stephon Diggs has 2.8

John Brown has 2.8

 

So all our wrs are above the league average or average.

 

Source: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

That is for the year look at the last 4 weeks those numbers have been trending down hard

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think it's happening around the league.  Teams are playing more zone to keep the play in front of them, especially if the QB can run.   Playing man against teams like the Bills is deadly, because you get beat once in a while, and you give Allen some big opportunities to run.  Against the zone, if you want anything that is at least a little bit downfield, you need the whole pass pattern to play out before you can throw.   Receivers have to run their routes so that the zone reshapes itself in response to threats, and then receivers have to run to the openings created in the zone by the reshaping.   It takes time.   

 

Allen seemed to do an excellent job waiting for the opportunities to arise.   

 

 

Agree Shaw I expect lots of scoring vs Seahawks both teams high scoring game.  Or teams going underneath lots in this game.

 

Seahawks not the best pass rushers. 

 

Worried about 49ers, Steelers front 4. Great front 4 destroys pass pattern. 

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Let's not discount how incredibly windy it was yesterday.  Allen may have been a little more hesitant to throw the ball to covered WRs because of the wind.  He had Davis in the EZ for what should have been a TD and the INT seemed pretty clearly like a miscommunication based off Diggs patting his own chest on the sideline appearing to say "that was on me."

 

Allen is the QB we need in the late Fall and early Winter in Buffalo.  I'm confident about that.

 

He just needs to keep progressing against zone coverages, which I think he's doing.

 

We beat the Patriots and our Offense generally moved the ball pretty easily against a Bill Bellichick coached Defense.  I'm still stoked.

Sal C. has been on all day long at WGR-550 commenting on how little the weather impacted the game.

 

It was mostly done raining by the time the game started and the wind really was not a factor.  At times it was dead calm and the sun was shining on the field.

 

The game was played the way it was out of necessity on New England's part (that is their game anyway) and because Tennessee showed the league how to confuse/stop Josh Allen...with all the DBs, as people are mentioning.

 

For most of the game yesterday, New England was using up to SEVEN DBs, and Allen has trouble figuring it all out.

 

I would be willing to bet at least 1 receiver is open on every play.  But can Allen find that guy? And in the right amount of time?  That's the problem.

 

I totally disagree with people saying "OK, so run more."  Wrong!  You don't let teams scheme us into the 1970s while they continue to get use a 2020 pass attack themselves.  You'll see how well that works against Seattle.

 

We need to figure out how to get Allen to perform at a higher level, or keep looking for a QB who can.

 

 

[ILBillsfan]

Just now, Nextmanup said:

Sal C. has been on all day long at WGR-550 commenting on how little the weather impacted the game.

 

It was mostly done raining by the time the game started and the wind really was not a factor.  At times it was dead calm and the sun was shining on the field.

 

The game was played the way it was out of necessity on New England's part (that is their game anyway) and because Tennessee showed the league how to confuse/stop Josh Allen...with all the DBs, as people are mentioning.

 

For most of the game yesterday, New England was using up to SEVEN DBs, and Allen has trouble figuring it all out.

 

I would be willing to bet at least 1 receiver is open on every play.  But can Allen find that guy? And in the right amount of time?  That's the problem.

 

I totally disagree with people saying "OK, so run more."  Wrong!  You don't let teams scheme us into the 1970s while they continue to get use a 2020 pass attack themselves.  You'll see how well that works against Seattle.

 

We need to figure out how to get Allen to perform at a higher level, or keep looking for a QB who can.

 

 

Disagree they game planned fora bad weather game and then stuck to it and that was to run run and more run.....when NE going to a nickel package just enabled the game plan to stay true

 

Not to mention the number of audibles into running plays that went for some nice gains

[Penfield45]

1 hour ago, Rc2catch said:

I put some blame on daboll and Allen. 
Allen loves the big play and gives up on the gimme throws at times while watching downfield. Daboll seems stubborn at implementing and calling a short pass game. Seems everyone goes 15-20 yards deep on lots of plays. I’d like to see Kroft worked in more in the 5-10 yard range. I also like singletary 1 on 1 in the flat. He may not be fast but 99% of the time the first guy is never going to tackle him. 

brady made a living off underneath throws when teams would shut down the pats deep passing game 

 

Blame the coaches. Not Allen. McDermott and his staff need to develop better game plans because right now they are being out coached almost every single week 

[ILBillsfan]

12 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

brady made a living off underneath throws when teams would shut down the pats deep passing game 

 

Blame the coaches. Not Allen. McDermott and his staff need to develop better game plans because right now they are being out coached almost every single week 

I will agree with Brady making a living off the underneath throws

 

But disagree on the out coached statement as the team is 6-2 ....sorry not seeing the stats back up what you are saying

[Rubes]

25 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

Disagree they game planned fora bad weather game and then stuck to it and that was to run run and more run.....when NE going to a nickel package just enabled the game plan to stay true

 

Not to mention the number of audibles into running plays that went for some nice gains

 

So the Pats**** prepared for a bad-weather game on defense by...playing 7 DBs and trying to take away the pass?

[ILBillsfan]

17 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

So the Pats**** prepared for a bad-weather game on defense by...playing 7 DBs and trying to take away the pass?

want me to get video that shows the Pats did not use 7 DB's or better yet just go look

 

here since you prob didn't even go look 6 DB's not 7

 

here is another still not seeing 7 DB's

let me know if you need more and more video of not running out 7 DB's as you claim

 

BTW this Cover ! group is pretty good at breaking down Allen's play if you think it is on him

Edited November 2, 2020 by ILBillsfan

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Allen has regressed lately.

 

How do you not throw for a single TD ?

 

It may be Fromm time

[Nitro]

Several issues.  Defenses have caught up to the Bills.  Brown was injured.  Running game was not there.  Offensive line woes.  Through it all they manage to win.  Change up the routes, run with authority and trust the line to stand up to pressure.  Allen and crew will be tested in the second half and I think Dabol will put the offense in position to succeed.  

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Allen has had one bad game, if you think about it— the KC game. Tennessee game just got away from the entire team; and he threw 1 bad pick— but overall, he moved us up and down. We moved up and down against the jets, just stalled out in the red zone (where Allen has otherwise been stellar all year). I thought he played well against the Pats when Daboll figured out all we had to do was run left the entire game. 

I think if the receivers made the plays and catches they made earlier in the year, Josh would look a lot better and it would make us more explosive. Can’t have a ball bounce off of Roberts’ hands for a pick, off of Brown’s facemask for a missed conversion, Off Of Davis’s hands for the GW TD, through Diggs’s hands on a bomb to the end zone. 

 

[Billsfan1972]

Blah blah blah blah blah......  Seems other teams are able to adapt and Wilson, Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes...... are able to still put up #'s as pass heavy teams.

 

It is coaching still that I question.

 

18 passes vs. NE.....  Not enough and will frustrate players after a while.

 

Just like second half adjustments that seem to stymie the Bills.....

[DuckyBoys]

He should put up numbers this Sunday  Seahawks score and their defense blows.  Were 6-2 finaly beat the Pats and were micro analyzing the qb again

[Rubes]

43 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

want me to get video that shows the Pats did not use 7 DB's or better yet just go look

 

here since you prob didn't even go look 6 DB's not 7

 

here is another still not seeing 7 DB's

let me know if you need more and more video of not running out 7 DB's as you claim

 

BTW this Cover ! group is pretty good at breaking down Allen's play if you think it is on him

 

Thanks for posting. I really don't have time to go through and do any of that. I just remember specifically seeing 7 DBs on one play, and hearing the announcers discussing it as well. Sorry, that's all I've got.

 

 

[ganesh]

5 hours ago, Rubes said:

 

Allen seemed to use that to good effect in the Jets game, but not so much in others.

 

Is this also more of a shift in defenses from man to zone? Seems like our WRs can take advantage of that.

 

Against Jets,  Allen took the short dump passes

Against Patriots, Daboll took the option to run the ball than throw it.

 

Both were effective.  The Bills are starting to show that they can play by what the opposing defense offers and still win.

[transplantbillsfan]

53 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Blah blah blah blah blah......  Seems other teams are able to adapt and Wilson, Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes...... are able to still put up #'s as pass heavy teams.

 

It is coaching still that I question.

 

18 passes vs. NE.....  Not enough and will frustrate players after a while.

 

Just like second half adjustments that seem to stymie the Bills.....

 

18 passes was enough.

 

We won.  We're 6-2.  The objective is to win a football game, not your fantasy league.

 

Players aren't frustrated they won.

[PUNT750]

5 hours ago, Rubes said:

 

I agree, and I think everyone noticed when the Pats**** came out with 7 DBs. I was hoping we would take advantage of that and run the ball down their throats, and it was actually nice to see it happen.

 

I still just wonder if Josh is having issues trusting the WRs to make the catch. I mean, some of the throws earlier in the year were into crazy tight windows.

 

He made a nice throw to the end zone in a tight window to Davis and he dropped it!

[WideNine]

10 hours ago, Rubes said:

 

I agree, and I think everyone noticed when the Pats**** came out with 7 DBs. I was hoping we would take advantage of that and run the ball down their throats, and it was actually nice to see it happen.

 

I still just wonder if Josh is having issues trusting the WRs to make the catch. I mean, some of the throws earlier in the year were into crazy tight windows.

 

 

No,  I don't think there are trust issues. Allen has thrown plenty of tight-window passes to Beasley, Diggs, Davis, and Brown and that will not likely change, but with teams fielding a lot of DBs in layers of zone to take away the mid-to-deep options we have to play them differently. We did the same thing to KC and Mahomes and it was not like he lit up the field passing - they ran against that look from our defense, and they were successful running - and they won.

 

The passing game now is going to be Allen hitting receivers on late-release outlets/screens (TE's, and RB's) or quick slants, bubble screens, and come-back routes when there is just one DB or heavy nickle playing off of them before they are bracketed between DB's and safeties past the sticks. More time in the pocket is not really the issue, if anything, the ball has to come out sooner and decisively to hit those underneath options other than the draws/screens.

 

The goal of forcing teams to defend the run is to also force them to abandon the 2-deep zones or go with a single high safety or Cover 0 with more run support behind the line, which would then give Allen the option to use play-action to freeze that one safety over top or get his receivers singled-up deep to beat man coverage. It is a more patient offensive plan that requires Allen and Daboll to work the run till they can force teams to give them those chances and take those shots when they are there.

 

With more experience seeing those different flavors of zone or disguised zones I expect that Allen will eventually be able to exploit some of those 2 deep looks and find the open windows and deliver on time, but this was not one of those games. NE's defensive personnel leans towards solid pass rush and lock-down corners. For years their MO was to get ahead and/or load the box with guys who drop into coverage then force teams to throw into that. Why play into their strengths, especially in the midst of heavy winds and some rain?

 

The game plan Daboll laid out was darn-near perfect for the conditions, and as it ate up yards and TOP, we did not expose our defense to defending as many snaps and they could stay fresh. I know we would all like to see wide-open receivers and Allen dropping dimes all over the field, but playing smart and winning is probably worth more than Allen flexing nuts and throwing into double-coverage and turning the ball over.

 

 

 

Edited November 3, 2020 by WideNine

[Buffalo Boy]

On 11/2/2020 at 3:35 PM, Mat68 said:

McKenzie cant track the ball the way Brown or Diggs do.  Mckenzie is a decent back up in the slot and his jet sweeps.  Thats really it.  

Can’t track the ball, huh????

[Watkins101]

This thread aging well

[Rubes]

3 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

This thread aging well

 

Thats what going up against the 32nd ranked defense in the league will get you, Champ.

 

[QLBillsFan]

Doesn’t hurt. But when your wrong just admit it. JA is a top 10 Qb , no wind, smoke back. All factors. 

[Rubes]

1 hour ago, QLBillsFan said:

Doesn’t hurt. But when your wrong just admit it. JA is a top 10 Qb , no wind, smoke back. All factors. 

 

What exactly was anyone wrong about? The thread was all about asking a question.

 

 

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Rubes said:

 

Thats what going up against the 32nd ranked defense in the league will get you, Champ.

 

 

Which other team passed for 400+ and scored 44+ points against Seattle?

17 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

What exactly was anyone wrong about? The thread was all about asking a question.

 

 

Nothing wrong with your thread.  I think there was a lot more to the offensive woes than your question.

[Rubes]

58 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Which other team passed for 400+ and scored 44+ points against Seattle?

 

Once again, not the point of the thread. Still, SEA was giving up an *average* of 356 passing per game this year. Good to see these guys can take advantage of that.