Josh Allen Keeps Dunking On Me (article)

[Logic]

This is a good read. I think y'all will enjoy it.

Allen IS a spectacular anomaly, and he's ours!

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/10/8/21498755/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-breakout-season-qb-scouting

It’s unfortunate that as sportswriters we aren’t allowed to change our opinions about athletes. If we were, I would say that Josh Allen has become a shockingly effective quarterback and one of the most fun players in the NFL. Sadly, I am locked in. Before Allen was drafted in 2018, I wrote that “he does not seem especially good at playing football,” and now my name is Rodger “He Does Not Seem Especially Good at Playing Football” Sherman. If Allen leads the Bills to the Super Bowl, I will be obligated to say he still sucks. I will be buried with this take...

[Seasons1992]

I listen to every Bill Simmons podcast.......he's a journalist first and he keeps his entire staff honest. He's building one of the greatest "new" media empires out there. Happy to see that trend continues with this article.

[Billsfan1972]

Was about to post too.  Great article (lead story) and basically calls him a Unicorn and explains how once you've made your bed (opinion) you lie in it.

 

As said didn't know Allen from Adam, but as the 7th pick I needed to believe in him as a Bills fan.  That is why I wanted him rushed and to learn as mauch as quick as possible. 

[Doc]

You don't grow by continuing to lie in your poorly-made bed.  You admit you made it poorly, fix it and learn from it.

[Augie]

Every time I read Josh has “only one pick” I want to scream “THAT WAS NOT AN INTERCEPTION!”

 

 

 

.

Edited October 8, 2020 by Augie

[MJS]

Good article and all... I just don't like the "I'm not allowed to change my mind and Bills fans are unfairly mean to me!" passive-aggressive attitude.

 

Just own that you were wrong and don't act so butt hurt that fans are giving you a hard time. For once you have been held accountable.

 

Yeah, maybe it is unfair. But suck it up. That's what your line of work attracts.

 

Also, I disagree that Allen is just an enigma this year. He showed signs of this from his rookie season. He has definately put it all together and his level of play is surprising, but analysts who don't like Allen will always point to those first to years as evidence that he was terrible, and it just isn't true. He had flashes of greatness all along, and he showed steady improvement and an uncanny ability to make weaknesses strengths before taking his big leap this year.

[msw2112]

I agree with the previous post.  Two examples from his rookie year are the road throttling of Minnesota and the series of bombs to Robert Foster.  I think he had a fantastic game at Miami that season too, albeit in a loss (when Charles Clay had his hands on the winning TD at the goal line and couldn't hang on).  Allen didn't suddenly become great.  Like coach says, it's a process.

[Buffalo Junction]

What they missed is that Allen is not inherently inaccurate. They viewed him as such despite there being evidence that his issues were related to precision and technical breakdowns. Fixing those issues was possible because no a large DI program attempted to correct them.... Kid was basically high school raw

[mbs]

That was a fun read, but I think there's a third possibility that the author has missed.

 

Allen wasn't simply less accurate. If he were, then his passes would follow a sort of normal distribution, but his didn't seem to. Setting aside too-narrow windows and bad drops, his misses were often just wild pitches, far worse than simply a bad throw. Imagine a shooter who hits bullseye half the time and misses the paper a third of the time. If you can explain the instances where the shooter is missing the paper, then you have a coach-able situation. If it's just a shotgun type pattern then experience can improve the situation but only so much.

 

Allen had thousands of fewer reps than the big names and I suspect that the wild pitch/panic and bail instinct along with basic mechanics under pressure is an earlier problem to sort out with both coaching and experience than tweaking the position of your elbow or whatever. The former issues are rarely (if ever) a problem seen in big program college prospects. I think that is why old scout types understood the promise he had because they have been involved with actual players and have a more intensive understanding than the extensive view of the stats guys.

 

Incidentally, the "all the throws/runs" video on Jackson was similar. Dimes and wooden nickles. Jackson's field vision and placement were so often crazy good or completely off.

 

(looks like buffalo junction beat me to this, but I'm invested now.)

[JESSEFEFFER]

I will read it but I suspect that the "I can't admit I was wrong defense" is a phony, straw man argument that is making fun of others who seem to be truly entrenched on their chosen hill to defend.  It has become some cultural sign of weakness to say that "now that I know more, I was wrong."  Maybe the author is making fun of that notion by suggesting that it is not an option for him.

 

The title implies that there is a self correction going on here.

Edited October 8, 2020 by JESSEFEFFER

[Billsfan1972]

And that the Bills receivers continually dropped balls and never seemed to make a "difficult" catch.....  Oh and an offensive philosophy predicated keep the opponent under 20, limit mistakes,  time of possession and field position.

[GoBills808]

After reviewing the play the ruling of interception by the Rams player stands

 

[JoPoy88]

27 minutes ago, MJS said:

Good article and all... I just don't like the "I'm not allowed to change my mind and Bills fans are unfairly mean to me!" passive-aggressive attitude.

 

Just own that you were wrong and don't act so butt hurt that fans are giving you a hard time. For once you have been held accountable.

 

Yeah, maybe it is unfair. But suck it up. That's what your line of work attracts.

 

Also, I disagree that Allen is just an enigma this year. He showed signs of this from his rookie season. He has definately put it all together and his level of play is surprising, but analysts who don't like Allen will always point to those first to years as evidence that he was terrible, and it just isn't true. He had flashes of greatness all along, and he showed steady improvement and an uncanny ability to make weaknesses strengths before taking his big leap this year.

they get paid to put their BS opinions out there and then whine when they get flack for being wrong. Sorry not sorry no sympathy from me.

56 minutes ago, Seasons1992 said:

I listen to every Bill Simmons podcast.......he's a journalist first and he keeps his entire staff honest. He's building one of the greatest "new" media empires out there. Happy to see that trend continues with this article.

Lol wow. Simmons entered hack territory YEARS ago.

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

This is a good read. I think y'all will enjoy it.

Allen IS a spectacular anomaly, and he's ours!

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/10/8/21498755/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-breakout-season-qb-scouting

It’s unfortunate that as sportswriters we aren’t allowed to change our opinions about athletes. If we were, I would say that Josh Allen has become a shockingly effective quarterback and one of the most fun players in the NFL. Sadly, I am locked in. Before Allen was drafted in 2018, I wrote that “he does not seem especially good at playing football,” and now my name is Rodger “He Does Not Seem Especially Good at Playing Football” Sherman. If Allen leads the Bills to the Super Bowl, I will be obligated to say he still sucks. I will be buried with this take...

 

He even got his new name wrong.  It is Rodger “He Does Not Seem Especially Good at Evaluating Football Players” Sherman

[Billsfan1972]

You guys are merciless.  Does anyone not singing the platitudes of the Bills 24/7 do anything right?

 

Sorry The Ringer is outstanding and this was a good article.

 

 

[Punching Bag]

Quote

 Among Connelly’s data set, which spanned from 2010 to 2017, no quarterback posted a higher success rate in the NFL than in college. This seemed like a bad sign for Allen, whose passing success rate at Wyoming was on par with that of Ryan Mallett at Arkansas.

 

Ryan Mallett played college football at Arkansas, and was drafted by the New England in the third round of the 2011 NFL Draft. 

The P*ts who I have heard on this board are great at drafting QBs, so good they trade them for high picks 

Rodger Sherman also rated Ryan Mallett high.

 

So is this quote from Rodger Sherman saying Allen had good potential or that P*ts, him and experts on wall all suck on evaluating?

[JESSEFEFFER]

24 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I will read it but I suspect that the "I can't admit I was wrong defense" is a phony, straw man argument that is making fun of others who seem to be truly entrenched on their chosen hill to defend.  It has become some cultural sign of weakness to say that "now that I know more, I was wrong."  Maybe the author is making fun of that notion by suggesting that it is not an option for him.

 

The title implies that there is a self correction going on here.

 

Yep. Nicely written and pokes fun at those who are clinging to their opinions.  

 

"As I prepare to go down with the S.S. Josh Allen Sucks, I wonder how I failed to realize that this 6-foot-5 iceberg would sink me."

[Don Otreply]

43 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I will read it but I suspect that the "I can't admit I was wrong defense" is a phony, straw man argument that is making fun of others who seem to be truly entrenched on their chosen hill to defend.  It has become some cultural sign of weakness to say that "now that I know more, I was wrong."  Maybe the author is making fun of that notion by suggesting that it is not an option for him.

 

The title implies that there is a self correction going on here.

Your understanding is the same as mine, imo he is making fun of pff amongst others.

 

 Go Bills!!!

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Seasons1992 said:

I listen to every Bill Simmons podcast.......he's a journalist first and he keeps his entire staff honest. He's building one of the greatest "new" media empires out there. Happy to see that trend continues with this article.

 

No he's not.  He's a columnist only.  Only has been ever.

[JESSEFEFFER]

2 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Your understanding is the same as mine, imo he is making fun of pff amongst others.

 

 Go Bills!!!

 

 

There is a good question posed here.  Is Josh Allen a unicorn ( I prefer Roy Hobbs as a mythological analogy ) or should other teams in the NFL start looking for similar prospects to develop?  If he is "one of a kind" then both sides can claim victory.  The scouts can say they were right and he was a prospect with an unusual combination of QB traits and the numbers people can say that of the nearly 8 billion people on planet Earth, Josh is the only one that did not fit their predictive models.   It would be better for us if this was true as the article said rather logically:

 

"But Bills fans should probably hope that the second thing is more true, and that what’s happening with Allen is remarkable, irreplicable, and utterly unpredictable. Josh Allen seems to be special, and they got him. It’d be better for Buffalo if the rest of the league wasted valuable draft capital trying to find the next Josh Allen when in fact Josh Allen is the only person capable of doing the ridiculous things that Josh Allen is doing."