Bills announce no fans for 1st 2 home games

[badassgixxer05]

6 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Good thing those people who don't give a F can't pass it on to anyone else!

 

Can we get all the people these people come into contact with to sign waivers as well???

Did you not read the second part of my comment? If you are scared of contracting the virus, stay home.

Edited August 26, 2020 by badassgixxer05

[SWATeam]

7 minutes ago, badassgixxer05 said:

Did you not read the second part of my comment? If you are scared of contracting the virus, stay home.

I did.  Are those people then going to live in the stadium and not come back into contact with the rest of the world?

[badassgixxer05]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The infection rate of diagnosed cases in Erie County is currently 5.2 people per 100,000 population.  While that sounds small, it's believed that diagnosed cases represent about 1 in 10 of the true cases due to false negative results and asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infections.  NY is testing much more than many states, so let's say it's only 1 in 5 of the true cases. 
 

Are you also taking into account all of the false positives? My wife tests hundreds of people everyday and will be the first person to tell you that all of the current testing methods are a big sham. Of the thousands of positive results they have gotten back only like 5% of those patients actually had a fever, yet every place you walk into for covid screening has a thermometer in their hand like it can detect a fn virus. lol

[badassgixxer05]

2 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I did.  Are those people then going to live in the stadium and not come back into contact with the rest of the world?

I see the point you are trying to make. But if masks and social distancing should be stopping the spread, I don't see how this is any different. Unless you are saying masks and social distancing have no effect.

[Richard Noggin]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thought this was an interesting article.  Points out that while outdoor environments are less risky than indoors, people crowded together and talking loudly (much less shouting) as on a crowded beach or pool

The point is: Whether at an outdoor restaurant or the beach or strolling the boardwalk, proximity to others and environmental conditions matter. Even with a mask and several feet of separation, you wouldn’t want to be just downwind from a group of people who are singing or shouting. “If you’re walking behind a group of people who are talking, you have to think about that, too,” Prather says.

 

As someone living in a state with no freakin' idea what is going on with the virus but watching WNY (my kid worked there all summer) and NYS carefully, I think a key to NYS successful virus suppression efforts has been the ruthless incremental nature of its reopening.  Reopen this, watch wait.  Ensure that the number of cases does not outrun the contact tracing abilities.  One infection that turns into a cluster of 50 can easily become 500 or 1000 contacts to trace and follow-up.

 

I understand gyms just reopened in Erie County; what about schools?

College classes begin over the next three weeks in WNY. My classes start next week, in-person (although I've designed our developmental English course to be mostly online for the inevitable shutdowns we'll experience). K-12 plans vary by district. Some fully remote, others hybrid. 

 

Erie County's infection has essentially doubled over the last few weeks, albeit still relatively low and manageable. And that increase predates these school openings. I've already seen resident students on campus not wearing their masks. Our hallways are narrow, and our classrooms are small. The main building does not have HVAC. It just doesn't seem realistic that we'll get far without issues.  

 

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Question for people that want to attend games in person:

 

Would you enjoy going to a game with 10,000 people and strict mask/social distancing enforcement? 

 

Even if you're not concerned about catching or spreading this virus, does that sound like a fun time? 

 

I'd rather stay at home and watch on TV than get some faux fan experience in person 

[marky]

Miami is having home fans. Is this the league trying to just make the Bills sick?

[Captain Hindsight]

18 hours ago, RiotAct said:

I think it boils down to, it’s easier to just throw your hands up and say “no fans allowed!” than to come up with a workable plan for letting people in at a reduced capacity with the proper guidelines.   There’s no way on earth it absolutely can’t be done, especially with the technology and manpower at the organization’s disposal.

 

This is assuming that there’s no underlying political pretext here with the learned officials who were part of the “much discussion and collaboration”...

Saw something the other day about how it may not be worth it for NFL teams to have 10k in the stadium. The cost of opening the stadium, having staff, cleaning ect they may only make a few hundred thousand bucks before taxes. In some parts of the country, that simply might not be worth it 

[Greg S]

9 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

Question for people that want to attend games in person:

 

Would you enjoy going to a game with 10,000 people and strict mask/social distancing enforcement? 

 

Even if you're not concerned about catching or spreading this virus, does that sound like a fun time? 

 

I'd rather stay at home and watch on TV than get some faux fan experience in person 

 

I would have no problem going to a game with those rules in place. I would want to be able to tailgate without a mask for beer drinking purposes.

[RiotAct]

57 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Saw something the other day about how it may not be worth it for NFL teams to have 10k in the stadium. The cost of opening the stadium, having staff, cleaning ect they may only make a few hundred thousand bucks before taxes. In some parts of the country, that simply might not be worth it 

that’s a good point.  Would raising the ticket prices temporarily be a non-starter?   I bet they could find 10,000 people willing to shell out double the usual cost of a seat (or more) to be able to go watch in person (even with the watered-down experience of not having a full house).

[Chandler#81]

I’m so done with this team.?

[noacls]

21 hours ago, RiotAct said:

I give it a 1% chance that they’ll change their tune for games 3&4 (and beyond).  The narrative will either be “cases are SKYROCKETING since kids are back in school!!!!!” or “let’s continue to be as safe as possible so we don’t end up like those southern states”.

Umm, New York State still has the highest death rate per 100,000 by far. But let's not let facts get in the way.  Southern states doing much better than Northeast.

[RiotAct]

6 minutes ago, noacls said:

Umm, New York State still has the highest death rate per 100,000 by far. But let's not let facts get in the way.  Southern states doing much better than Northeast.

Cool.  Now do since July 1st.

[noacls]

3 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

Cool.  Now do since July 1st.

Because it does not fit your narrative.  Whatever dude. Lol

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There's a precept that any public health situation is primarily a communication problem.

 

Reading this, I feel a bunch of stuff must be unclear to you (and many) and that's a communication problem.

1) What the goal of the State and Local governments is, as far as virus mitigation.   It's not "zero cases". There's a lot of distance between "zero cases" and "50-80 per day" which is where Erie County has been for the last week or so.  

The infection rate of diagnosed cases in Erie County is currently 5.2 people per 100,000 population.  While that sounds small, it's believed that diagnosed cases represent about 1 in 10 of the true cases due to false negative results and asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infections.  NY is testing much more than many states, so let's say it's only 1 in 5 of the true cases. 

Here is a simulator put together by scientists at Georgia tech.  Pick "ascertainment bias" of 5 and 1000 people at an event (if 10,000 people are at an event, no one will be in contact with all of them - let's say it's a micro-environment of 10 1,000 person groups).  That gives a 96% probability that in each group, at least 1 person infected with covid will be present.

 

2) What the contact tracing capacity of Erie and surrounding counties is - how many cases could they pursue?
Let's say 4 cases per day result in 400 contacts to trace.  40 cases per day can result in 4000 contacts to trace.  

What they're finding is social events attended by <100 people where 1 infection leads to clusters of 30-50 infections.  But at a game, where 1 infected person could spread to more people and different clusters before, during, and after the game,  if 1 infection leads to a cluster of 150 infections (only 3x as man) x 10 "micro-environment groups", 10,000 fans could easily result in 1,500 infections and 150,000 contacts to trace.

 

When does it break down and the contact tracing that is keeping the epidemic in check in NYS becomes unable to cope, as it is where I live?  Do you know?

 

3) What the best actual science is around aerosol transmission outdoors with a group of people all shouting at the top of their lungs (with or without masks) - covid-19 is new, but understanding aerosol spread is not. 

 

I am very grateful that my kid had the opportunity to work a good job in Erie county all summer every day with "3000 of her closest friends".  But they were all carefully distanced and 100% masked.  They weren't all facing in the same direction screaming their lungs out for 2 hrs interspersed with crowding into concession lines and bathrooms.

 

You present people of your philosophical and political beliefs as very fragile indeed - "THEY'LL SNAP!".  Oh my!  How ever did people cope with years of restrictions in wartime, especially when I'm sure they sometimes seemed contradictory or not backed by common sense and some people were able to end-around or flout them?

 

IMHO the priorities are to get people back to work as much as possible and kids back to school safely.  I'd rather see the contact tracing and testing priorities support that.  JMO.

 

Is that 1 infection leads to cluster of 30-50 over a period of hours, or over the course of the infection (several days)? Is that rate of transmission similar in outdoor settings as it is indoors?  We may not have a complete idea of how well the virus spreads in outdoor settings (I think that is what your saying-I don't completely understand what you are trying to convey), we do at least know that the virus does not spread nearly as well.   

6 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

Cool.  Now do since July 1st.

Yes, that is how that works....

 

 

Edited August 26, 2020 by JoshAllenHasBigHands

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

Question for people that want to attend games in person:

 

Would you enjoy going to a game with 10,000 people and strict mask/social distancing enforcement? 

 

Even if you're not concerned about catching or spreading this virus, does that sound like a fun time? 

 

I'd rather stay at home and watch on TV than get some faux fan experience in person 

You're going to get a faux fan experience at home watching on TV too.

 

Have you watched a baseball game, soccer game, or NHL playoff game lately?

 

Team sports with no crowd just doesn't work, at least for me.

 

They pipe in fake cheering when a team scores, etc., but it's really weird.

 

The NFL is going to be "off" and "wrong" IMO until the virus is gone, fans are packed in stadiums again, and cheering like crazy for the home team.

 

It's going to take time.

 

 

[716er]

The new CDC guidelines from today are not going to help the stadium open any sooner.

 

I'm content with an entire season of no fans but understand the perspective of fans who want to fill the stadium. 

 

 

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Nextmanup said:

You're going to get a faux fan experience at home watching on TV too.

 

Have you watched a baseball game, soccer game, or NHL playoff game lately?

 

Team sports with no crowd just doesn't work, at least for me.

 

They pipe in fake cheering when a team scores, etc., but it's really weird.

 

The NFL is going to be "off" and "wrong" IMO until the virus is gone, fans are packed in stadiums again, and cheering like crazy for the home team.

 

It's going to take time.

 

 

 

You accidentally bring up a good side point.

 

Why should the NFL be the only professional sports league to have fans?

 

NBA, NHL, and MLS are all in a bubble. No fans at games. Heck, no visiting friends and family between games!

MLB is playing out and about, but no fans at games.

 

Why do folks think the NFL is so special that we should all be at those games?

[GG]

7 minutes ago, noacls said:

Because it does not fit your narrative.  Whatever dude. Lol

 

The narrative that wants to see the status of the virus in the last 2 months, not from 5 months ago?

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

You accidentally bring up a good side point.

 

Why should the NFL be the only professional sports league to have fans?

 

NBA, NHL, and MLS are all in a bubble. No fans at games. Heck, no visiting friends and family between games!

MLB is playing out and about, but no fans at games.

 

Why do folks think the NFL is so special that we should all be at those games?

 

Those leagues were planning their reopening months before the NFL season began planning theirs.  They were planning in dramatically different contexts. 

 

Plus, unlike the NBA and NHL, most NFL stadiums are outdoors.