Bills announce no fans for 1st 2 home games

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, RiotAct said:

Do you live in Western NY?  Compliance is pretty much 100% here in businesses that require masks, which is every single one... I’m out in stores quite a bit (at least 4x a week).  I’ve seen maybe two guys in the last month not wearing a mask.

Nevermind, saw you’re in Missouri.  Are ICUs really still at capacity in the state?   Dang.

 

Just to clarify:  In StL and KC, covid-19 seems to be plateauing again and there is good hospital capacity.  Mask compliance pretty good.  In rural areas (coded red in this map from Covidactnow), they have limited hospital capacity, limited/no ICU capacity, and what they have is pretty full.   I think MO typifies large areas of the country: clusters of "hotspot" counties, hospitals pretty full and it's getting into the nursing homes; most folks all "This is Fine!" (in the Yolo avatar sense).  JMO. 

 

Good to know the mask compliance is very high in WNY and crossing fingers that maybe after the first month we'll get to see some fans at our games!

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

I just had dinner at a restaurant,  inside, no masks at the tables six feet apart, that’s okay. I can go the the gym soon, use the same equipment everybody else is touching, that's okay. Soon I can  even take a group exercise class in a room with others six feet apart but breathing hard, that's okay. I can protest with hundreds of others, that's okay. But I can't sit outside, in a mask, with 13,000 people in a stadium built for 70,000?  

 

So how many people are in the restaurant at the same time, that might have to be contact traced if one person tests positive?

 

How many people are in the gym at the same time (and anyway, don't you sanitize equipment at your gym after use?  Eeeeeeeewww.)?

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that number in both cases is a whole lot smaller than 13,000

[Doc Brown]

I'm glad we've gone from if there is going to be football at all to the argument about fans being allowed in within a month.

 

If case positivity rate stays below a certain percentage I see no reason why you can't have 15 to 20k fans in an outdoor stadium with proper precautions (masks, social distancing, etc.).  I get the concern about a possible second wave and I hope after September we maintain the low rate so we can have fans in the stands.

[Richard Noggin]

7 hours ago, teef said:

 

 

#stilllookgoodwithmyshirtoffat42?

#mealso (notice I avoided the more obvious, more (rightfully) contentious, and possibly funnier hashtag)

[Richard Noggin]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

6' apart in restaurants indoors without masks may not be such a safe thing. 

https://fortune.com/2020/08/25/covid-outbreak-starbucks-seoul-masks-employees/?fbclid=IwAR3XBb_2qMeZM_NmmWGRM26cLENyXiEqQOkAPZ3VuWGA54_8qOFnetQ2Suo

I'm not gonna be eating indoors in a restaurant any time soon myself. 

 

Do you feel fans would keep their masks on?  Would they be screaming and shouting?  Getting drunk and whups there goes the mask?

 

I don't know if it can be done safely.   

I frankly think "Bills Mafia" reputation for hard-drinking and hard-core noisy enthusiastic fandom is being kind of held against us here.

I work in a restaurant, and I work on a college campus. 

 

People don't always or even mostly follow protocols unless forced to, repeatedly. I get to listen to unmasked dining guests whine about Cuomo while I sweat under my mask and march through actual (but invisible) plumes of respiratory droplets. It feels remarkably unsafe, especially as Erie County's infection rates quietly climb. But recognizing the ridiculous and inconsistent nature of various Covid policies doesn't then logically lead to: EFF IT, WE SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO GATHER DRUNKENLY AND SCREAM ENTHUSIASTICALLY IN THE THOUSANDS! Just because our current policies seem arbitrary and selective and put people at risk doesn't mean we should knowingly make it worse. 

 

The whole two-wrongs-don't-make-a-right thing?

 

People are kind of childish, huh? They want what they want (in this case, Bills football in-person) and they'll bend reality to justify it. That's what my toddler does.

[Big Blitz]

Should definitely be good in October.

 

September?  No.  Too risky.  

 

October definitely.  

 

 

How many times do people need to have been lied to during this before they break?  

 

Because when this inevitable announcement of no fans all season due to our inability to get the virus to zero cases comes, and you've just spent a month watching your elementary aged kids distance "learn," and the high temps are already 50 degrees.......I would think maybe then you'll snap?  Maybe then it sinks in what an absolute sham of a response this has been.  Clouded and muddied by politics, pseudoscience, and power hungry governors determined to say they "beat" the virus.

 

Ummmmmm k.  

[CSBill]

15 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I know it's hard to believe but maybe bring careful now gets us games later.

 lets hope

[Greg S]

https://forums.jetnation.com/topic/153483-no-fans-for-bills-vs-jets/

 

Some Jets fans are happy about this.

[Putin]

16 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

"It is what it is".

No it’s NOT !!!  
I didn’t leave Russia to come here and be told what to do !!!

I WANT MY FREEDOM!!!!

GO BILLS 

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

11 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

 

Ever been to a game? 

Many.  Many wins and many loses.  Crowd screamed just as loud for both.

[Greg S]

7 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Many.  Many wins and many loses.  Crowd screamed just as loud for both.

 

When the Bills have a good team like they do now then the crowd really can help make a difference. Look at the Bills teams during the early 90's. They didn't lose to many in OP. If the team sucks then no amount of screaming by the fans will help. It will hurt this year being that the Bills are good and they have some primetime home games as well. Bills fans get extra fired up for those.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

I work in a restaurant, and I work on a college campus. 

 

People don't always or even mostly follow protocols unless forced to, repeatedly. I get to listen to unmasked dining guests whine about Cuomo while I sweat under my mask and march through actual (but invisible) plumes of respiratory droplets. It feels remarkably unsafe, especially as Erie County's infection rates quietly climb. But recognizing the ridiculous and inconsistent nature of various Covid policies doesn't then logically lead to: EFF IT, WE SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO GATHER DRUNKENLY AND SCREAM ENTHUSIASTICALLY IN THE THOUSANDS! Just because our current policies seem arbitrary and selective and put people at risk doesn't mean we should knowingly make it worse. 

 

The whole two-wrongs-don't-make-a-right thing?

 

People are kind of childish, huh? They want what they want (in this case, Bills football in-person) and they'll bend reality to justify it. That's what my toddler does.

 

Thought this was an interesting article.  Points out that while outdoor environments are less risky than indoors, people crowded together and talking loudly (much less shouting) as on a crowded beach or pool

The point is: Whether at an outdoor restaurant or the beach or strolling the boardwalk, proximity to others and environmental conditions matter. Even with a mask and several feet of separation, you wouldn’t want to be just downwind from a group of people who are singing or shouting. “If you’re walking behind a group of people who are talking, you have to think about that, too,” Prather says.

 

As someone living in a state with no freakin' idea what is going on with the virus but watching WNY (my kid worked there all summer) and NYS carefully, I think a key to NYS successful virus suppression efforts has been the ruthless incremental nature of its reopening.  Reopen this, watch wait.  Ensure that the number of cases does not outrun the contact tracing abilities.  One infection that turns into a cluster of 50 can easily become 500 or 1000 contacts to trace and follow-up.

 

I understand gyms just reopened in Erie County; what about schools?

[RiotAct]

yep schools are reopening... a few districts are doing remote-only but quite a few are offering a “hybrid” model where kids go in-person a couple days a week.

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

9 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

When the Bills have a good team like they do now then the crowd really can help make a difference. Look at the Bills teams during the early 90's. They didn't lose to many in OP. If the team sucks then no amount of screaming by the fans will help. It will hurt this year being that the Bills are good and they have some primetime home games as well. Bills fans get extra fired up for those.

2019 Buffalo had a good team.

 

And the sold out stadiums didn’t help them beat any of the three good teams they played (Eagles, Ravens, Patriots)

 

But buffalo did beat Bengals, Dolphins, Washington and Denver.

 

Arss you saying the team needed the fans to help beat Bengals, Miami, Washington and Denver?

 

If anything it’s the WEATHER more than the fans when teams visit buffalo.

[SoCal Deek]

Or how about if you’re not comfortable going to a game....you just don’t. There are plenty of fans who stay home every week because they don’t like the atmosphere (drinking, language, etc) in the stadium. If you feel it’s dangerous to your health, stay home. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

I thought for sure this thread would be 12 pages by now

[badassgixxer05]

Let people sign wavers. If you are scared of contracting the virus stay home. If you don't give a F and are over all this BS, go and enjoy some Buffalo Bills football!

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, badassgixxer05 said:

Let people sign wavers. If you are scared of contracting the virus stay home. If you don't give a F and are over all this BS, go and enjoy some Buffalo Bills football!

Good thing those people who don't give a F can't pass it on to anyone else!

 

Can we get all the people these people come into contact with to sign waivers as well???

[Greg S]

17 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

2019 Buffalo had a good team.

 

And the sold out stadiums didn’t help them beat any of the three good teams they played (Eagles, Ravens, Patriots)

 

But buffalo did beat Bengals, Dolphins, Washington and Denver.

 

Arss you saying the team needed the fans to help beat Bengals, Miami, Washington and Denver?

 

If anything it’s the WEATHER more than the fans when teams visit buffalo.

 

I think the weather thing is overblown. Any team in northeast is used to cold, rain, wind, and snow. Even teams who play in warm weather cities or in domes have many players on the roster who played in the cold in college like Penn St for example. Weather can help as do the fans but ultimately it comes down to how the Bills play on the field. I remember during the Super Bowl years the Bills rarely lost at home. They were just as dominant as the Chiefs are in Arrowhead and Seahawks have been at Century Link.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Should definitely be good in October.

 

September?  No.  Too risky.  

 

October definitely.  

 

 

How many times do people need to have been lied to during this before they break?  

 

Because when this inevitable announcement of no fans all season due to our inability to get the virus to zero cases comes, and you've just spent a month watching your elementary aged kids distance "learn," and the high temps are already 50 degrees.......I would think maybe then you'll snap?  Maybe then it sinks in what an absolute sham of a response this has been.  Clouded and muddied by politics, pseudoscience, and power hungry governors determined to say they "beat" the virus.

 

Ummmmmm k.  

 

There's a precept that any public health situation is primarily a communication problem.

 

Reading this, I feel a bunch of stuff must be unclear to you (and many) and that's a communication problem.

1) What the goal of the State and Local governments is, as far as virus mitigation.   It's not "zero cases". There's a lot of distance between "zero cases" and "50-80 per day" which is where Erie County has been for the last week or so.  

The infection rate of diagnosed cases in Erie County is currently 5.2 people per 100,000 population.  While that sounds small, it's believed that diagnosed cases represent about 1 in 10 of the true cases due to false negative results and asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infections.  NY is testing much more than many states, so let's say it's only 1 in 5 of the true cases. 

Here is a simulator put together by scientists at Georgia tech.  Pick "ascertainment bias" of 5 and 1000 people at an event (if 10,000 people are at an event, no one will be in contact with all of them - let's say it's a micro-environment of 10 1,000 person groups).  That gives a 96% probability that in each group, at least 1 person infected with covid will be present.

 

2) What the contact tracing capacity of Erie and surrounding counties is - how many cases could they pursue?
Let's say 4 cases per day result in 400 contacts to trace.  40 cases per day can result in 4000 contacts to trace.  

What they're finding is social events attended by <100 people where 1 infection leads to clusters of 30-50 infections.  But at a game, where 1 infected person could spread to more people and different clusters before, during, and after the game,  if 1 infection leads to a cluster of 150 infections (only 3x as man) x 10 "micro-environment groups", 10,000 fans could easily result in 1,500 infections and 150,000 contacts to trace.

 

When does it break down and the contact tracing that is keeping the epidemic in check in NYS becomes unable to cope, as it is where I live?  Do you know?

 

3) What the best actual science is around aerosol transmission outdoors with a group of people all shouting at the top of their lungs (with or without masks) - covid-19 is new, but understanding aerosol spread is not. 

 

I am very grateful that my kid had the opportunity to work a good job in Erie county all summer every day with "3000 of her closest friends".  But they were all carefully distanced and 100% masked.  They weren't all facing in the same direction screaming their lungs out for 2 hrs interspersed with crowding into concession lines and bathrooms.

 

You present people of your philosophical and political beliefs as very fragile indeed - "THEY'LL SNAP!".  Oh my!  How ever did people cope with years of restrictions in wartime, especially when I'm sure they sometimes seemed contradictory or not backed by common sense and some people were able to end-around or flout them?

 

IMHO the priorities are to get people back to work as much as possible and kids back to school safely.  I'd rather see the contact tracing and testing priorities support that.  JMO.