Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

[njbuff]

On 5/14/2020 at 8:04 PM, wvbillsfan said:

I’m not worried about Josh until he stops improving. We can talk drops, lack of the long ball, he was the third most pressured qb in the NFL, weapons, etc etc wash rinse and repeat. 
He looked better last year than he did the year before. Let’s see if he can repeat that. If he does......look out NFL

 

That's exactly how I see it.

 

Allen had NINE new starters.......  NINE. Let that sink in.

 

He almost has a full supporting cast in year 3 and I would like to think that with his talent and the addition of a mega-talent like Diggs, the sky is the limit.

 

We shall see.

[billsfan89]

3k yards on a team that was nursing leads late in many games and even in most losses was still very competitive (which means no obvious passing situations to inflate stats) along with an over 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio all in 15 starts isn't bad even if the completion percentage leaves a bit to be desired.

[dezertbill]

Only 27 starts.  He improved, and will get better.

 

Eli Manning had 3336 passing yards, 56 completion % and 20 INT's the year they wont the SB in 2007.  Also had 25 INT's the year before they won SB in 2011.  But he was a winner, and when he needed to make a play he did.

 

I foresee a long career ahead for Allen due to his competitiveness. and drive.  His stats won't define him.

 

 

[TwistofFate]

13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Ok, I’ll take this bet.  I’m gonna DM you for a record of it.  We need to have a games played qualifier though just in case Josh got hurt during a small sample size.  Like he completed 75% week 1 but got hurt week 2 for season, that wouldn’t be a fair win on my part, and vice versa.

 

I think 10 games would be a good sample size, but let me know if you’re thinking a different number.

Im thinking 12 games.   Thats 75% of the season. 

 

Also, are we going regular season or regular and post season combined. 

Edited May 17, 2020 by TwistofFate

[Alphadawg7]

12 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Im thinking 12 games.   Thats 75% of the season. 

 

Also, are we going regular season or regular and post season combined. 

 

Just regular season, because that is what the comp % tracks.  It tracks them separately, so when someone says he is a 60% passer, its referencing his regular season stats.  

 

Ok, and 12 games it is.  

[TwistofFate]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Just regular season, because that is what the comp % tracks.  It tracks them separately, so when someone says he is a 60% passer, its referencing his regular season stats.  

 

Ok, and 12 games it is.  

Then its a bet. 

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Then its a bet. 

 

Coolio...sent you a DM with all terms to confirm so we dont have to hunt down this thread.  

[thebandit27]

On 5/15/2020 at 9:19 PM, TwistofFate said:

Like I already said, easiest bet there could be. 

 

Ill take that bet for 100$ all day. 

 

History is on my side, analytics are on my side, Strength of Schedule is on my side. 

 

 

Ill go 100$ same as with Alpha. 

Actually, as I previously laid out, the only hope that you have is for Allen to regress and for his WRs to continue to be the worst group in the NFL in catch percentage.

[JaCrispy]

When you just look at Allen’s stats by themselves, or compared to previous Bills QBs, they are not that bad...when you look at them compared to the rest of the NFL QBs in 2019, they are pretty poor- especially for a top 10 pick in his second year...there is really no way around it...?

[Dr. Who]

29 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

When you just look at Allen’s stats by themselves, or compared to previous Bills QBs, they are not that bad...when you look at them compared to the rest of the NFL QBs in 2019, they are pretty poor- especially for a top 10 pick in his second year...there is really no way around it...?

I think you have to take into account that generally McDermott/Daboll call a conservative game. If we got a lead, they'd turtle and count on the D. We'll see what happens this year. Hopefully there is a season so we can find out.

 

[GoBills808]

37 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

When you just look at Allen’s stats by themselves, or compared to previous Bills QBs, they are not that bad...when you look at them compared to the rest of the NFL QBs in 2019, they are pretty poor- especially for a top 10 pick in his second year...there is really no way around it...?

Which stats?

[Bangarang]

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Which stats?

 

Almost every passing stat?

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

 

Almost every passing stat?

Go ahead

[Bangarang]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Go ahead

And?

[GoBills808]

Just now, Bangarang said:

And?

Don’t play shy, youre itching to throw out some numbers And I’m obliging you

Quickly to the google mobile lol

[tomur67]

I guess many of you see some QB's with a completion average of 65% and say that's good and see Josh's average at 58.8 and say that is terrible, but that is only a difference of two completions a game. And Josh more than makes up for that difference with the other aspects of his game.  That is winning games. By the way, he  led the whole NFL in come from behind victories.  Stop bashing him.  He is a winner.

[Warcodered]

On 5/15/2020 at 12:31 PM, TwistofFate said:

Allen has never eclipsed 60% in his entire career when attempting more than 20 passes.   That includes college.

Did you not watch at all this season he did exactly that 9 times.

Edited May 17, 2020 by Warcodered

[Stank_Nasty]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Actually, as I previously laid out, the only hope that you have is for Allen to regress and for his WRs to continue to be the worst group in the NFL in catch percentage.

It’s honestly a really dumb bet and what’s it more funny is that “TwistofFate” thinks it’s a no brainer. 
 

like you said. Allen would literally have to get no better and somehow the wr’s would have to drop as many balls as last year.... and now they have diggs. 
 

how he thinks that’s a smart bet, I have no clue. 

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

It’s honestly a really dumb bet and what’s it more funny is that “TwistofFate” thinks it’s a no brainer. 
 

like you said. Allen would literally have to get no better and somehow the wr’s would have to drop as many balls as last year.... and now they have diggs. 
 

how he thinks that’s a smart bet, I have no clue. 

Since PFR started tracking drops nobody has had a worse drop% than Allen last year

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Don’t play shy, youre itching to throw out some numbers And I’m obliging you

Quickly to the google mobile lol

I’m not itching to throw out anything. The numbers are what they are and they have been discussed and argued plenty. 
 

Fact remains that Allen was ranked in the bottom 3rd in most of the commonly used passing stats. If you want to blame his receivers for that then it probably wouldn’t be the craziest argument to make. But it’s been stated many times now that Allen has a good supporting cast so this year should be a true measure of what he’s capable of. If we get more of the same then I think it’s time we are open to the possibility that he may not be what we hope he is. 

 

47 minutes ago, tomur67 said:

I guess many of you see some QB's with a completion average of 65% and say that's good and see Josh's average at 58.8 and say that is terrible, but that is only a difference of two completions a game. And Josh more than makes up for that difference with the other aspects of his game.  That is winning games. By the way, he  led the whole NFL in come from behind victories.  Stop bashing him.  He is a winner.

You know what’s better than always having to come from behind? Scoring enough points early on so you don’t have to.

 

Allen has a fire in his belly and tends to play great when he has to which is excellent. I’d just prefer us not take games down to the wire so often. Much better on my heart when you build a lead early and can watch our defense pin their ears back the rest of the way.

Edited May 17, 2020 by Bangarang

[Warcodered]

26 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

It’s honestly a really dumb bet and what’s it more funny is that “TwistofFate” thinks it’s a no brainer. 
 

like you said. Allen would literally have to get no better and somehow the wr’s would have to drop as many balls as last year.... and now they have diggs. 
 

how he thinks that’s a smart bet, I have no clue. 

So the bet is what that Allen will have a completion % above 60 in his first 12 games?

 

....he actually did that last year chop off the last 4 games and he's sitting at 61.48%

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I think you have to take into account that generally McDermott/Daboll call a conservative game. If we got a lead, they'd turtle and count on the D. We'll see what happens this year. Hopefully there is a season so we can find out.

 

Completely agree, McD holds Allen back...

[GoBills808]

38 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

I’m not itching to throw out anything. The numbers are what they are and they have been discussed and argued plenty. 
 

Fact remains that Allen was ranked in the bottom 3rd in most of the commonly used passing stats. If you want to blame his receivers for that then it probably wouldn’t be the craziest argument to make. But it’s been stated many times now that Allen has a good supporting cast so this year should be a true measure of what he’s capable of. If we get more of the same then I think it’s time we are open to the possibility that he may not be what we hope he is. 

 

You know what’s better than always having to come from behind? Scoring enough points early on so you don’t have to.

18th in TD%

 

next

[Alphadawg7]

56 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

It’s honestly a really dumb bet and what’s it more funny is that “TwistofFate” thinks it’s a no brainer. 
 

like you said. Allen would literally have to get no better and somehow the wr’s would have to drop as many balls as last year.... and now they have diggs. 
 

how he thinks that’s a smart bet, I have no clue. 

Shhhhhh this is the easiest money I’ve ever made. HA

26 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

So the bet is what that Allen will have a completion % above 60 in his first 12 games?

 

....he actually did that last year chop off the last 4 games and he's sitting at 61.48%

No the bet is on the regular season, but Allen must play at least 12 games to count as the bet.

[Bangarang]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

18th in TD%

 

next

I say most commonly used stats, you cherry pick one in which he’s still mediocre but not quite bottom 3rd and you consider this some sort of victory? Congrats I guess. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

I say most commonly used stats, you cherry pick one in which he’s still mediocre but not quite bottom 3rd and you consider this some sort of victory? Congrats I guess. 

It’s pretty common to respond to a comment about ‘scoring points’ with a very commonly used per attempt statistic

 

Were you hoping for YARDZ and TDZ perchance

[Bangarang]

12 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It’s pretty common to respond to a comment about ‘scoring points’ with a very commonly used per attempt statistic

 

Were you hoping for YARDZ and TDZ perchance

Just so I’m clear, I say this offense doesn’t score enough points which Beane and McD have both acknowledged and you’re somehow trying to prove us all wrong by pointing out how Allen was 18th in TD %? 

Edited May 17, 2020 by Bangarang

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Just so I’m clear, I say this offense doesn’t score enough points which Beane and McD have both acknowledged and you’re somehow trying to prove us all wrong by pointing out how Allen was 18th in TD %? 

I could have sworn you also mentioned how Allen was ‘bottom third’ in relevant statistics too. Iirc it was in the same comment.

[Bangarang]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I could have sworn you also mentioned how Allen was ‘bottom third’ in relevant statistics too. Iirc it was in the same comment.

I said he was bottom 3rd in MOST of the commonly used passing stats. Even so, you citing one stat in which he is 18th isn’t really a strong argument. In fact, it’s almost as if you are arguing just for the sake of it. 

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Just so I’m clear, I say this offense doesn’t score enough points which Beane and McD have both acknowledged and you’re somehow trying to prove us all wrong by pointing out how Allen was 18th in TD %? 

Found it for you, to be fair it was a whole 60 minutes ago

 

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

I’m not itching to throw out anything. The numbers are what they are and they have been discussed and argued plenty. 
 

Fact remains that Allen was ranked in the bottom 3rd in most of the commonly used passing stats. If you want to blame his receivers for that then it probably wouldn’t be the craziest argument to make. But it’s been stated many times now that Allen has a good supporting cast so this year should be a true measure of what he’s capable of. If we get more of the same then I think it’s time we are open to the possibility that he may not be what we hope he is. 

 

You know what’s better than always having to come from behind? Scoring enough points early on so you don’t have to.

 

Allen has a fire in his belly and tends to play great when he has to which is excellent. I’d just prefer us not take games down to the wire so often. Much better on my heart when you build a lead early and can watch our defense pin their ears back the rest of the way.

 

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

I said he was bottom 3rd in MOST of the commonly used passing stats. Even so, you citing one stat in which he is 18th isn’t really a strong argument. In fact, it’s almost as if you are arguing just for the sake of it. 

Well I think YOU’RE just arguing for the sake of it

[Bangarang]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Found it for you, to be fair it was a whole 60 minutes ago

 

You didn’t have to find anything as I know what I said. Perhaps you needed the refresher?
 

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Well I think YOU’RE just arguing for the sake of it

You took exception to someone pointing out that Allen’s passing stats weren’t good and you asked for examples as if to say they were wrong. That’s how we got to this point. Rather than accepting the obvious, you chose to pick up a sword and fight and I’m not sure why.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

You didn’t have to find anything as I know what I said. Perhaps you needed the refresher?
 

You took exception to someone pointing out that Allen’s passing stats weren’t good and you asked for examples as if to say they were wrong. That’s how we got to this point. Rather than accepting the obvious, you chose to pick up a sword and fight and I’m not sure why.

I asked for examples of these statistics so we could have a discussion. The reason we’ve arrived at this point is because you decided to deflect instead of support your statement. If you won’t provide the statistics you cited there’s really nothing more that needs to be said.-

[Bangarang]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I asked for examples of these statistics so we could have a discussion. The reason we’ve arrived at this point is because you decided to deflect instead of support your statement. If you won’t provide the statistics you cited there’s really nothing more that needs to be said.-

You literally looked up his stats to show he was 18th in TD %. Did you really need someone else to post them even though you’re already aware that they won’t rank favorably? Seriously? Are you that obtuse?

Edited May 18, 2020 by Bangarang

[TwistofFate]

3 hours ago, Warcodered said:

So the bet is what that Allen will have a completion % above 60 in his first 12 games?

 

....he actually did that last year chop off the last 4 games and he's sitting at 61.48%

Wow, so you're saying the more passes he threw the worse he got?   Interesting, considering he had one of the lowest attempts in the league. 

[Warcodered]

21 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Wow, so you're saying the more passes he threw the worse he got?   Interesting, considering he had one of the lowest attempts in the league. 

Or maybe that he played 3 of the toughest defenses he played all year at the very end and in the 4th game barely played at all.

[TwistofFate]

4 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

It’s honestly a really dumb bet and what’s it more funny is that “TwistofFate” thinks it’s a no brainer. 
 

like you said. Allen would literally have to get no better and somehow the wr’s would have to drop as many balls as last year.... and now they have diggs. 
 

how he thinks that’s a smart bet, I have no clue. 

Ill lay it out for you nice and simple.   What im going to tell you isn't hypothetical, it's factual. 

 

1.  Allen has never completed 60% or higher at any point in his college career, nor 2 years now as a professional. 

 

2. He's completed sub 50% (mid to low 40s) completion in 3 games this past season.   Every game was a loss, every opponent  finished the season with a winning record. His average attempts per game, was 34. (take a look at our schedule, we need big numbers and points to win this year) 

 

3. With the exception of the Titans, every game Allen completed 60% or greater was against teams without a winning record. 

 

4.  Drops...Out of every team with 20 or more drops this season, Allen is the only Qb with sub 60% completion.   8 teams had 20+ drops.

 

5.  Advanced metrics... Sports Info Solutions, which has risen to be one of the best most trusted analytical outfits in pro football, has Allen ranked as one of the worst Qbs in the NFL from a clean pocket,  as well as on target throws.. (leading receivers with ball placement for YAC)   These stats according to them, are the two most important metrics which determine long term franchise Qb performance.  No franchise Qbs in the last 10 years have posted the poor numbers Allen has in those key metrics, in their first two years.  NONE.  The most similar comparison to Allens numbers, is Mitch Trubisky. 

 

6.  Allen has yet to do something as common and frequent as any other franchise Qb in the NFL.... pass for 300 yards in an NFL game.   2 years in the NFL as a starter, and he has yet to do something routine from NFL Qbs. 

 

Adding Diggs looks beautiful on paper, and to be honest takes away all excuses.  But ill let you in on a secret...Our Wrs were running wide open all over the place last year and if you can't connect with them, it doesn't matter who that reciever is. 

 

I placed a bet on FACTS and DATA, not on unproven hopes, theoretics, and emotions. 

[Stank_Nasty]

22 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Or maybe that he played 3 of the toughest defenses he played all year at the very end and in the 4th game barely played at all.

Right? What a pathetic attempt on his part there. 

14 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Ill lay it out for you nice and simple.   What im going to tell you isn't hypothetical, it's factual. 

 

1.  Allen has never completed 60% or higher at any point in his college career, nor 2 years now as a professional. 

 

2. He's completed sub 50% (mid to low 40s) completion in 3 games this past season.   Every game was a loss, every opponent  finished the season with a winning record. His average attempts per game, was 34. (take a look at our schedule, we need big numbers and points to win this year) 

 

3. With the exception of the Titans, every game Allen completed 60% or greater was against teams without a winning record. 

 

4.  Drops...Out of every team with 20 or more drops this season, Allen is the only Qb with sub 60% completion.   8 teams had 20+ drops.

 

5.  Advanced metrics... Sports Info Solutions, which has risen to be one of the best most trusted analytical outfits in pro football, has Allen ranked as one of the worst Qbs in the NFL from a clean pocket,  as well as on target throws.. (leading receivers with ball placement for YAC)   These stats according to them, are the two most important metrics which determine long term franchise Qb performance.  No franchise Qbs in the last 10 years have posted the poor numbers Allen has in those key metrics, in their first two years.  NONE.  The most similar comparison to Allens numbers, is Mitch Trubisky. 

 

6.  Allen has yet to do something as common and frequent as any other franchise Qb in the NFL.... pass for 300 yards in an NFL game.   2 years in the NFL as a starter, and he has yet to do something routine from NFL Qbs. 

 

Adding Diggs looks beautiful on paper, and to be honest takes away all excuses.  But ill let you in on a secret...Our Wrs were running wide open all over the place last year and if you can't connect with them, it doesn't matter who that reciever is. 

 

I placed a bet on FACTS and DATA, not on unproven hopes, theoretics, and emotions. 

Bro, you’re gonna lose your $100 and the reason it’s gonna be funny is because you write up huge novels like this on how it’s easy money. 

[TwistofFate]

22 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Or maybe that he played 3 of the toughest defenses he played all year at the very end and in the 4th game barely played at all.

So you think its acceptable that your franchise Qb averages 48% completion across 3 games, weeks 13, 14,15?

 

You think playing good teams is an excuse for that kind of number? 

 

Buckle up my friend, because this years schedule is week after week of that. 

[TwistofFate]

7 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Right? What a pathetic attempt on his part there. 

Bro, you’re gonna lose your $100 and the reason it’s gonna be funny is because you write up huge novels like this on how it’s easy money. 

48% completion against those defenses. 

 

Our defense is one of the best in the NFL. 

 

Lamar put up 3tds and 64% completion. 

 

Duck Hodges as an undrafted rookie put up 61% completion.

 

Brady put up 79% completion on us. 

 

They all faced a top 3 defense in the NFL.   I dont see them combining for 48%.

[Stank_Nasty]

8 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

48% completion against those defenses. 

 

Our defense is one of the best in the NFL. 

 

Lamar put up 3tds and 64% completion. 

 

Duck Hodges as an undrafted rookie put up 61% completion.

 

Brady put up 79% completion on us. 

 

They all faced a top 3 defense in the NFL.   I dont see them combining for 48%.

Well I’m sure you would agree with PFF then, that Duck Hodges is a better qb than Allen. ?