Convince me that the 2020 Pats are good...

[Buffalo Barbarian]

18 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So, I’ve been posting this in numerous threads for a few months. I know there are some people with me on it and some that think it’s crazy. The Pats are a bad team. They will win 6 games (and that’s with the greatest coach ever). Someone please make a case as to why they are a threat in the division? Please don’t use some lame reason like, “because they are king’s until they are not” or “because they are always good.” Give FOOTBALL reasoning as to why they are good!!
 

My reasoning as to why they are bad is that they have no talent on offense. Their OL is pretty good but lost their legendary coach. They have, at best, a massive question mark at QB. At worst, they have the worst QB situation in the league. The Pats likely have the worst set of skill players in the NFL as well. Some people are saying that they are going to run the ball and play defense. Their backs aren’t good and they will be forced to run against loaded boxes because no one fears their passing game. How does this team generate offense?!? Please, someone, tell me...

 

The secondary is really good. The pass rush isn’t. They lost Collins and Van Noy this offseason as well as Danny Shelton. That’s 3 starters in their front 7. That defense is no longer elite (although it could still be a top 10ish unit). 
 

Add that to, statistically, the hardest schedule in the NFL and explain to me what I’m missing? Again, no “because they always are” responses. This team has different players and coaches. I’m asking why THIS team is still a threat?  https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/NE
 

I’m hoping that this thread inspires some thoughtful conversation. I suspect that the trauma of 20 years of being the nail has people living in fear for no reason. They will hide behind “because Belichick” because that’s the ONLY thing to stand behind. I’m not sure how many games, against that schedule, a great coach is good for? I think that they win 6 because of Belichick. That’s a 4 win team otherwise IMO. I’d love to hear a real football argument those as to why they can win? 

 

can't, they are junk

 

 

[Thurman#1]

19 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

I won't say they will be good, but I think they could be 8-8 or possibly 9-7.

 

The defense will carry the load while the offense will try to grind out points. New England has done a fantastic job utilizing their backs in the pass game and that is very helpful to a young QB. I can see them playing small ball and letting the defense hold up...alot like this Bills team of the past few seasons. 

 

 

 

That's my best guess, 8 or 9 wins. Now, anyway.

 

Belichick defenses have long showed form in being top defenses even when they lose guys who appear indispensable such as Richard Seymour. A lot of their success comes down to multiplicity and unpredictability. Guys like Beau Allen, JC Jackson and Adrian Phillips just suddenly seem to become good somehow in Belichick defenses. They're wildly unlikely to be as good on D as they were last year but I don't expect them to regress as much as many expect.

 

On offense, though, Scarnecchia and Brady are going to be huge losses and I do expect major regression there.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

When Brady went down he WAS some bum who hadn't started a game since high school.  When Brady went down Cassel, who was in his 4th year in teh league, had 39 NFL career passing attempts, shattering his college record of 33 pass attempts in his illustrious USC career.  

 

After leaving New England he went on to a 26-40 career record.  He had one winning season in KC.  After 2.5 seasons as KC's starter he was benched for Brady Quinn and then released.  

 

Matt Cassel is, was, and still is a bum.  

 

 

Win/loss is NOT a QB stat. It just isn't. It's a team stat, and to remind people again, the actual name of the stat is, "TEAM Wins in Games Started By This QB (Regular Season)." (My caps.) Team wins.You judge a QB by how well he performs his QB duties, not by whether a K hits or misses a field goal or by whether the defense sucks or excels.

 

Taking out a guy's best years and looking at what's left isn't a fair way to judge his performance either. 

 

And Cassel isn't a bum, he's a game manager who won't be explosive, but also throws too many INTs to be a really good game manager.

 

And in any case, it's very much worth noting that the Pats went 10-5 in games Cassel started, NE had an unbelievably easy schedule.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

So, I went onto a Patriots* fan forum and asked these same questions (full disclosure: I plagiarized you massively...), because I have been wondering what their faithful would have to say about such things. And, I have to say, by and large, they seem pretty sober about all of it. At least as far as the upcoming season is concerned. I know quite a few Pats* fans, in fact (my wife, and her entire extended family is from Boston), and they saw the writing on the walls even before Brady* skipped out. Mostly, they are putting all their faith in Belichick*, and his massive brain to execute a full rebuild by 2021, at which point the Fourth Reich begins. Or something like that.

Thanks for doing that. I had discussed it with a couple of fans but this brings in a much larger sample size. 
 

FWIW, I doubt that they are this bad for very long. They have a ton of cap space next year (assuming that the cap doesn’t take a big hit from Covid). They will have a read of their QB situation as well as their other young talent. If they get off to a slow start this year I can even see them unloading some quality vets for picks to expedite their timeline. As an extreme example could they get 2 firsts for Gilmore? That’s what Ramsey got and we know BB isn’t above dealing stars. If they aren’t ready to win now why not move your 30 year-old talent to help you acquire capital to get your next franchise QB? Just thinking out loud but those are the kind of moves that can jumpstart a rebuild. If they are 2 or 3 years from winning you’re better off with players that will be 25 then than 33. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[machine gun kelly]

To KJ, I don’t see the Pats doing better than 8-8, a stretch to 9-7.  They will try and become a running team with a good defense, like when Brady first started twenty years ago.  The problem as you stated is their schedule is tough, and they lost starters on defense.

 

Stidham is not going to light it up.  I still contend we will win the division at 10-6.

[oldmanfan]

I can do it in one word.

 

Belichick.

[TroutDog]

7 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

So, I went onto a Patriots* fan forum and asked these same questions (full disclosure: I plagiarized you massively...), because I have been wondering what their faithful would have to say about such things. And, I have to say, by and large, they seem pretty sober about all of it. At least as far as the upcoming season is concerned. I know quite a few Pats* fans, in fact (my wife, and her entire extended family is from Boston), and they saw the writing on the walls even before Brady* skipped out. Mostly, they are putting all their faith in Belichick*, and his massive brain to execute a full rebuild by 2021, at which point the Fourth Reich begins. Or something like that.

Yup. As I mentioned earlier, I believe they won’t fully tank but will be poor enough to get higher up in the draft and then get more draft capital to allow for movement and get the QB they want. It’s the Beane approach and BB has seen firsthand that it works. 
 

Ugh. 

[Big Turk]

23 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So, I’ve been posting this in numerous threads for a few months. I know there are some people with me on it and some that think it’s crazy. The Pats are a bad team. They will win 6 games (and that’s with the greatest coach ever). Someone please make a case as to why they are a threat in the division? Please don’t use some lame reason like, “because they are king’s until they are not” or “because they are always good.” Give FOOTBALL reasoning as to why they are good!!
 

My reasoning as to why they are bad is that they have no talent on offense. Their OL is pretty good but lost their legendary coach. They have, at best, a massive question mark at QB. At worst, they have the worst QB situation in the league. The Pats likely have the worst set of skill players in the NFL as well. Some people are saying that they are going to run the ball and play defense. Their backs aren’t good and they will be forced to run against loaded boxes because no one fears their passing game. How does this team generate offense?!? Please, someone, tell me...

 

The secondary is really good. The pass rush isn’t. They lost Collins and Van Noy this offseason as well as Danny Shelton. That’s 3 starters in their front 7. That defense is no longer elite (although it could still be a top 10ish unit). 
 

Add that to, statistically, the hardest schedule in the NFL and explain to me what I’m missing? Again, no “because they always are” responses. This team has different players and coaches. I’m asking why THIS team is still a threat?  https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/NE
 

I’m hoping that this thread inspires some thoughtful conversation. I suspect that the trauma of 20 years of being the nail has people living in fear for no reason. They will hide behind “because Belichick” because that’s the ONLY thing to stand behind. I’m not sure how many games, against that schedule, a great coach is good for? I think that they win 6 because of Belichick. That’s a 4 win team otherwise IMO. I’d love to hear a real football argument those as to why they can win? 

 

The only chance they have is to lean on their defense and secondary which still should be pretty good.  If they are going to win games their only real shot is to win them 17-13 or 13-10, be great on special teams and not turn the ball over hardly at all on offense. Their offense is pretty abysmal looking at this point so unless Stidham is the second coming of Kurt Warner, good luck with having anything resembling a good offense.

Edited May 7, 2020 by matter2003

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

I hate every point you make mostly because they could be true. 

 

New England COULD grind out a 9-11 win season on the merits of their stifling defense and ball--control offense, no matter who the QB is.

 

One mitigating, up-yours factor at play here is the annually unpredictable nature of NFL defensive success. But even there we find numbers that don't feel good: since and including 1996, NE's scoring defense has ranked outside the top-10 only six times (IN 24 SEASONS)! They had a fairly bad run of yards-allowed rankings from 2010-14 and 2017-18, but that didn't matter much with prime, top-5 Brady-led offenses. 

 

Belichick really is the best defensive coordinator I've ever seen. He's done it so many times, with so many different rosters. I'd say THAT's the number one argument in favor of the 2020 Pats being good. 

 

Then again, if the offense takes a major step back, that makes it MUCH more difficult for the D to play to its strengths. So that is the potential fly in the Hoodie's three-quarter sleeve ointment. 

 

I was just trying to play that devils advocate of trying to convince someone why they could still win the division.  

 

Belichick wrecks young QBs... the AFC east has allen, darnold, tua.. thats not ideal.  There's a lot of factors in there that can get the patriots to 9 or 10 wins imo.  The big thing on the team is at QB - but Pittsburgh had the 30th ranked offense last year and won 8 games.  I think NE has a better offensive coaching staff, and will try to play as turnover free as possible (pittsburgh turned the ball over in every game last year).  

 

I think for them - their likely path to a division requires dominating the divisional opponents (6-0 or 5-1) , and hoping that the other 3 teams beat each other a few times and everyone else is in that 7-9 to 9-7 range and they win on tiebreakers.  

28 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

The only chance they have is to lean on their defense and secondary which still should be pretty good.  If they are going to win games their only real shot is to win them 17-13 or 13-10, be great on special teams and not turn the ball over hardly at all on offense. Their offense is pretty abysmal looking at this point so unless Stidham is the second coming of Kurt Warner, good luck with having anything resembling a good offense.

 

Buffalo had a lousy offense last year and won 10 games (probably 11 if starters play week 17).  

[Stank_Nasty]

So the pats are gonna grind out 10-11 wins with average ball control offense, completely lacking weapons and a great D.... going head first into the toughest schedule in the league(on paper). GOT IT! 
 

 

 

[Doc]

I look for at least 5 more losses from last year, like what happened in 2008. 

[berg1029]

I personally think the Pats will be decent next year and compete with the Bills for the division still.  This belief revolves around 5 main points:

 

1.  the pats defense is going to continue to be pretty good.

2.  Belichick's invincibility aura.

3.  assumption that you can plug and play almost any quarterback with the Patriots offense and get at least decent play.  We've seen it over the years.  Think of all the QBs that they have plugged in for Brady over the years and the Pats offense hasn't fallen off a cliff (Cassel, jimmy G, jacoby brissett, Hoyer, etc). 

4.  TB was/is slipping and that bringing Stidham might actually improve their offenses play

5.  They are assumed to be good until they are actually proven to be bad.  They've been good for too long

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

5 minutes ago, berg1029 said:

I personally think the Pats will be decent next year and compete with the Bills for the division still.  This belief revolves around 5 main points:

 

1.  the pats defense is going to continue to be pretty good.

2.  Belichick's invincibility aura.

3.  assumption that you can plug and play almost any quarterback with the Patriots offense and get at least decent play.  We've seen it over the years.  Think of all the QBs that they have plugged in for Brady over the years and the Pats offense hasn't fallen off a cliff (Cassel, jimmy G, jacoby brissett, Hoyer, etc). 

4.  TB was/is slipping and that bringing Stidham might actually improve their offenses play

5.  They are assumed to be good until they are actually proven to be bad.  They've been good for too long

 

 

Cassel took another team to the playoffs 2 years later. Jimmy G just played in the Super Bowl, and Brissett has been an average starter for the colts over the last 2 years. That doesn’t seem like “almost any quarterback”. Those are all guys that have shown windows of solid starting qb play..... also when did hoyer get plugged into their offense and they didn’t skip a beat? His numbers for them in very limited time aren’t flattering. 
 

I also 100% disagree with 4 and 5. I’m not gonna look at what’s probably a barely average roster and just say they are good because.... patriots. Nah. Not happening. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Big Turk]

51 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I was just trying to play that devils advocate of trying to convince someone why they could still win the division.  

 

Belichick wrecks young QBs... the AFC east has allen, darnold, tua.. thats not ideal.  There's a lot of factors in there that can get the patriots to 9 or 10 wins imo.  The big thing on the team is at QB - but Pittsburgh had the 30th ranked offense last year and won 8 games.  I think NE has a better offensive coaching staff, and will try to play as turnover free as possible (pittsburgh turned the ball over in every game last year).  

 

I think for them - their likely path to a division requires dominating the divisional opponents (6-0 or 5-1) , and hoping that the other 3 teams beat each other a few times and everyone else is in that 7-9 to 9-7 range and they win on tiebreakers.  

 

Buffalo had a lousy offense last year and won 10 games (probably 11 if starters play week 17).  

 

Buffalo's offense last year looks like the greatest show on turf compared to what they have right now. Brady covered up for a lot of deficiencies.

[Jauronimo]

16 minutes ago, berg1029 said:

I personally think the Pats will be decent next year and compete with the Bills for the division still.  This belief revolves around 5 main points:

 

1.  the pats defense is going to continue to be pretty good.

2.  Belichick's invincibility aura.

3.  assumption that you can plug and play almost any quarterback with the Patriots offense and get at least decent play.  We've seen it over the years.  Think of all the QBs that they have plugged in for Brady over the years and the Pats offense hasn't fallen off a cliff (Cassel, jimmy G, jacoby brissett, Hoyer, etc). 

4.  TB was/is slipping and that bringing Stidham might actually improve their offenses play

5.  They are assumed to be good until they are actually proven to be bad.  They've been good for too long

 

 

I wouldn't say they can plug and play every QB.  The more common argument is they draft and develop day 2 and day 3 QB prospects better than any team in the league. 

 

I would say Belichick gets more out of his talent and puts his players into a situation where they can succeed best better than any coach in the league.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

24 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Buffalo's offense last year looks like the greatest show on turf compared to what they have right now. Brady covered up for a lot of deficiencies.

 

Buffalo made the playoffs in 2017 with the 4th worst offense in the league by yardage standpoints, and they werent very good a year ago either. 

 

A lot of those deficiencies were attributed to injuries with NE.  2 linemen missed significant time, as did their 1st round pick WR.  They also lost 2 WRs to suspension, and a HOF TE to retirement.   And after all of that - they still had a much better offense than buffalo's in 2019.

Edited May 7, 2020 by dneveu

[Doc]

15 minutes ago, dneveu said:

Buffalo made the playoffs in 2017 with the 4th worst offense in the league by yardage standpoints, and they werent very good a year ago either. 

 

A lot of those deficiencies were attributed to injuries with NE.  2 linemen missed significant time, as did their 1st round pick WR.  They also lost 2 WRs to suspension, and a HOF TE to retirement.   And after all of that - they still had a much better offense than buffalo's in 2019.

 

They've done little to address the lack of talent at WR and TE, they lost their OL guru which will affect the OL play and as matter2003 said, Brady's experience and respect made that offense better than it should have been.  Plus they were facing an easy schedule, whereas this year it will be the hardest.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

10 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

They've done little to address the lack of talent at WR and TE, they lost their OL guru which will affect the OL play and as matter2003 said, Brady's experience and respect made that offense better than it should have been.  Plus they were facing an easy schedule, whereas this year it will be the hardest.

 

Harry, Sanu, Edelman, Lee with a full offseason.  

 

Last year it was Gordon (susp), Brown(susp), Edelman, Sanu (acquired in October), Dorsett, Meyers.  I think the above one looks better tbh.

 

At TE it was Watson (age 39), Lacosse, Tomlinson (Jets cut him in August), Izzo (2018 7th round pick).  This year it would be Lacosse, Asiasi, keene.  Two 3rd rounders instead of a 39 year old, jets cast off, and 7th rounder.  

I wouldn't say they've done little - Harry getting hurt wasn't ideal, and all the bandaids didn't work.  Sanu struggled as a midseason trade, and the other 2 guys ended up suspended and cut.  

[davefan66]

On 5/6/2020 at 9:44 AM, Stank_Nasty said:

Saying they are the to beat until proven otherwise is just a lazy football take. Doesn’t take any sort of thought. 

Don’t believe it’s lazy to say that.

 

Happens to be true.  Patsies have consistently proven they can remove integral pieces, replace and continue to win.  Until BB leaves, they get the benefit of the doubt.

 

Won’t be as easy for them this year, defense will carry them to a 10-6 if a full season is played.  Believe we can earn a split with them.

[Kirby Jackson]

25 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Harry, Sanu, Edelman, Lee with a full offseason.  

 

Last year it was Gordon (susp), Brown(susp), Edelman, Sanu (acquired in October), Dorsett, Meyers.  I think the above one looks better tbh.

 

At TE it was Watson (age 39), Lacosse, Tomlinson (Jets cut him in August), Izzo (2018 7th round pick).  This year it would be Lacosse, Asiasi, keene.  Two 3rd rounders instead of a 39 year old, jets cast off, and 7th rounder.  

I wouldn't say they've done little - Harry getting hurt wasn't ideal, and all the bandaids didn't work.  Sanu struggled as a midseason trade, and the other 2 guys ended up suspended and cut.  

Sanu may need to be released to get under the cap.