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4merper4mer

Trade prediction at almost top of draft

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I'm guessing Miami wants Tua which means they might have to leap the Giants and Detroit if Washington wants Young.  They might not be worried about either but I could see them worried about either or both.  Assuming Cincy takes Burrow, Washington wants Young and Detroit is willing to at least pretend to want Tua, I could see this crazy trade happening:

 

Fish get pick 2

Washington gets pick 3 and the lower remaining Fish first rounder

Detroit gets pick 5, the higher remaining Miami first, a fourth or so from Washington and a third from Miami.

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Purely based on "insider" leaks on public websites, it appears the Fins order of preference is 1. Burrow 2. Herbert 3. Tua

 

Stated differently, a trade to one to pick Burrow or no trade and picking Herbert at #5 are more likely than a trade to #3 or #4. 

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I don’t see Cincy trading no matter what.  They want Burrow and believe he will be their franchise QB.  That’s just my speculation, unless only Burrow’s camp beats the drum on not playing for Cincy.

 

I can see Miami moving up to #3 from #5 for whoever they think will be a stud.  The upside is Miami has Fitz to cover until Tua is completely healed, but the downside as electric as Tua can be, he has that injury history, so maybe it is Herbert.  We’ll find out in late April.

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Miami wants Tua imo. This other stuff that’s ‘leaked’ is all smoke screen bs. No way Miami wants to trade all their picks away. Flores is a billy boy deciple, I’m sure he values picks the same way he does.

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If Miami wants Tua they need to get to 2.   I think Washington will take him at 2, They are not satisfied with their QB situation.

 

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58 minutes ago, Hatszel said:

If Miami wants Tua they need to get to 2.   I think Washington will take him at 2, They are not satisfied with their QB situation.

 

Washington recently traded with Carolina for Kyle Allen. The Skins have little interest in trading their second round pick unless the offers are too generous to refuse. They are in a position to select Chase Young the player they covet. And that is what they are going to do. 

 

I don't see Miami giving up a boatload of painfully earned and valuable rebuilding picks to move up a few spots. They should be able to get Tua at the five spot, the position where they currently reside. If another team jumps ahead of them then they will probably take Herbert at that spot or draft Love in a lower first round. 

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31 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Washington recently traded with Carolina for Kyle Allen. The Skins have little interest in trading their second round pick unless the offers are too generous to refuse. They are in a position to select Chase Young the player they covet. And that is what they are going to do. 

 

I don't see Miami giving up a boatload of painfully earned and valuable rebuilding picks to move up a few spots. They should be able to get Tua at the five spot, the position where they currently reside. If another team jumps ahead of them then they will probably take Herbert at that spot or draft Love in a lower first round. 

Hoping Miami doesn’t get Tua.... he’s going to be a good one assuming he stays healthy.

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Washington is taking Young at 2. They will play with Haskins or Allen in hopes that there just bad enough to get Lawrence next year. 

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11 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Hoping Miami doesn’t get Tua.... he’s going to be a good one assuming he stays healthy.

I wholeheartedly agree with you that Tua is going to a good qb assuming he stays healthy. But that qualification about staying healthy applies to every qb. Ask the Colts if they would do things differently after their drafting of Luck. The first thing they would tell you is make it a priority to construct a good OL line to protect the investment. 

 

 

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The wild card in all of this is the Chargers.  They are the team that has the most to lose by not getting one of the top three QB's.  If they believe that a third team plans to select a QB before their pick at six, they may sell the farm to get ahead of Miami.  They will not plan to play an entire season with Tyrod in a new stadium when they are trying to build a fan base.  It's not important what Detroit and Washington are actually planning to do at picks 2 and 3.  It's important what the Chargers believe they are going to do with those picks.  Detroit has a QB recovering from a back injury and Haskins looked lost in his first season.  You can make a reasonable case for either of these teams making a QB selection.  Detroit and the Giants have made it known that they are open to trade back. There are other teams that have less than an ideal long term QB situation.  The Raiders, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and New England could be long shots to make a move but the Chargers may not want to leave the door open for them either.  I wouldn't be shocked by any of these teams making a move to shuffle the top five draft order.  I will be shocked if nothing happens and the draft order remains unchanged.

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6 hours ago, JohnC said:

I don't see Miami giving up a boatload of painfully earned and valuable rebuilding picks to move up a few spots. They should be able to get Tua at the five spot, the position where they currently reside. If another team jumps ahead of them then they will probably take Herbert at that spot or draft Love in a lower first round. 


OTOH, it is Miami we're talking about...

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I hope Tua ends up in Detroit. Once they inevitably ditch Patricia I will have a new second team to cheer for. I like a fair amount of their players. 

 

I don’t want him in Miami, he has all the tools to be a good NFL QB if his health holds up. 

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Washington should take Tua.  But Washington is rather unique; if they can screw up big time they'll find a way to do it.  Plus they already have a good defensive line, so return to the second sentence.

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4 hours ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Washington should take Tua.  But Washington is rather unique; if they can screw up big time they'll find a way to do it.  Plus they already have a good defensive line, so return to the second sentence.


They need to draft Tua, it would be a huge mistake if they didn’t. It’s one thing to miss out on a stellar DE... missing out on a potentially perennial playoff QB is always worse 

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Tua is overrated imo. Didn't like him before the injury. Gives off Johnny Manziel vibes

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Hip injuries are a serious issue long term.   Often people have issues their entire life.   I would stay clear of Tua. 

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I kind of hope Miami breaks the bank to get Tua because right now I think he's a gamble, both for his injuries and his play. Yes, he's very good, but I'm was never convinced he is all he has been hyped to be. Think about the supporting cast he has had around him the past few years at Alabama. I know, this is the minority opinion, but it is what I see (or don't see) when watching him play. 

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This would be more than Miami would pay. In a similar recent trade, the jests sent 3 seconds to move from 6 to 3. I don't see the Phish sending 2 additional firsts and a third to go from 5 to 2

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