There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

From the news article linked:
 

Early data from coronavirus tests of Minnesotans who participated in demonstrations after the death of George Floyd suggest the mass gatherings may not result in a spike in COVID-19 infections.
 

More than 3,300 people who participated in protests and community events after Floyd’s death were tested for the coronavirus this week at four community testing sites.
 

Results from about 40 percent of the coronavirus tests done in St. Paul and Minneapolis this week show 1.4 percent of participants who were tested had contracted COVID-19. Health officials are awaiting the rest of the test results and are encouraging anyone who participated in mass gatherings to get tested — regardless of symptoms.
 

The 1.4 percent positivity rate is lower than the 3.7 positivity rate of the more than 13,000 test results reported Friday. It is lower than the current seven-day average rate of positive tests, which is also 3.7 percent.
 

</snip>

 

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

From the news article linked:
 

Early data from coronavirus tests of Minnesotans who participated in demonstrations after the death of George Floyd suggest the mass gatherings may not result in a spike in COVID-19 infections.
 

More than 3,300 people who participated in protests and community events after Floyd’s death were tested for the coronavirus this week at four community testing sites.
 

Results from about 40 percent of the coronavirus tests done in St. Paul and Minneapolis this week show 1.4 percent of participants who were tested had contracted COVID-19. Health officials are awaiting the rest of the test results and are encouraging anyone who participated in mass gatherings to get tested — regardless of symptoms.
 

The 1.4 percent positivity rate is lower than the 3.7 positivity rate of the more than 13,000 test results reported Friday. It is lower than the current seven-day average rate of positive tests, which is also 3.7 percent.
 

</snip>

 

That’s because it was primarily young people who’d been locked in their parent’s homes playing video games for weeks on end.

[Rob's House]

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

That’s because it was primarily young people who’d been locked in their parent’s homes playing video games for weeks on end.

Possibly. Or it could be locking people down was not a good idea? Or, COVID-19 isn't cooties that will jump from person to person simply by standing next to them? Or, relatively young, healthy people have little to fear from COVID-19? Or, heat and humidity kill it? Or...

IOW, "experts" don't know *****. 

 

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, Buffalo_Gal said:

Possibly. Or it could be locking people down was not a good idea? Or, COVID-19 isn't cooties that will jump from person to person simply by standing next to them? Or, relatively young, healthy people have little to fear from COVID-19? Or, heat and humidity kill it? Or...

IOW, "experts" don't know *****. 

 

They know WAY WAY more than you think. They just aren’t telling anyone out of fear they’ll be proven wrong.

[Magox]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

 

SOUNDS LIKE A V-SHAPED RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Possible but not sure how likely.  It all depends on the businesses that are permanently gone.  If there are a sizable number of those, then those don't get replaced overnight.  What Wells Fargo is describing wouldn't a V.  As they don't expect 6% unemployment for another 18 months

[Tiberius]

37 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

LOL, not socialism anymore

[3rdnlng]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

LOL, not socialism anymore

So, cutting taxes is socialism?

[B-Man]

1 minute ago, 3rdnlng said:

So, cutting taxes is socialism?

 

 

No.

 

Tibsy is unable to distinguish between Pelosi/Democrat's trillion dollar effort (which did everything BUT help small business)

 

 

 

and the current effort to help the economy.

 

 

 

so he throws in one of his misunderstandings as a fact.

 

 

[Tiberius]

5 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

So, cutting taxes is socialism?

More spending less revenue, socialism socialism socialism 

[Magox]

Paging @GG

 

Quote

 

The Federal Reserve is expanding its foray into corporate credit to now buy individual corporate bonds, on top of the exchange-traded funds it already is purchasing, the central bank announced Monday.

As part of a continuing effort to support market functioning and ease credit conditions, the Fed added functions to its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility.

 

The program has the ability to buy up to $750 billion worth of corporate credit. Its March 23 initial announcement is largely considered a watershed moment for the financial markets, reeling from the coronavirus threat spread.

Under the latest guidelines, the Fed said it will buy, on the secondary market, individual bonds that have remaining maturities of five years or less. Those purchases will go along with the ETFs the Fed already has been buying, which are balanced toward investment-grade indexes but also include some junk bond funds that track debt which had been investment grade before the crisis but had been downgraded after.

 

 

 

I had a feeling.

[ALF]

2 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

How will a tax cut for those working help the millions of unemployed  and businesses going under ?

[123719bwiqrb]

12 minutes ago, Magox said:

Paging @GG

 

 

 

I had a feeling.

...that tonight's gonna be a good, good night?

 

They are just quietly sweeping trash under the COVID rug, right?

[GG]

11 minutes ago, Magox said:

Paging @GG

 

 

 

I had a feeling.

 

Read the fine print:

 

Quote

The index will be made up of all the bonds in the $9.6 trillion corporate debt market from companies that satisfy the lending program’s minimum ratings and securities that satisfy the maximum maturities, among other eligibility criteria.

 

They're pumping money into the healthy part of the corporate debt market.  The hope is that maybe this free up enough liquidity for the banks to prop up the weaker end of the market until things stabilize.

[Magox]

Just now, GG said:

 

Read the fine print:

 

 

They're pumping money into the healthy part of the corporate debt market.  The hope is that maybe this free up enough liquidity for the banks to prop up the weaker end of the market until things stabilize.

 

Right, but the intended goal is for money to flow to these markets as well.

 

This wasn't meant to be a "told you so".

 

But more so that this is the direction we are headed.  It's clear that they are entering into things that were unimaginable just a few months ago.

2 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

...that tonight's gonna be a good, good night?

 

They are just quietly sweeping trash under the COVID rug, right?

 

It's more of a:

 

 

- We're gonna do whatever it takes to repair this economy as quickly as we can by the means we have control over - 

[123719bwiqrb]

Just now, Magox said:

 

Right, but the intended goal is for money to flow to these markets as well.

 

This wasn't meant to be a "told you so".

 

But more so that this is the direction we are headed.  It's clear that they are entering into things that were unimaginable just a few months ago.

 

Forgive my ignorance, but is this a way to level the playing field with the Chinas of the world?  Become a little more manipulative like they already are?

[Magox]

Just now, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

Forgive my ignorance, but is this a way to level the playing field with the Chinas of the world?  Become a little more manipulative like they already are?

 

Is there a potential moral hazard here?

 

Perhaps

 

My views on the Fed and debt have shifted markedly and is definitely not aligned with the boards conservatives. 

[fansince88]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

From the news article linked:
 

Early data from coronavirus tests of Minnesotans who participated in demonstrations after the death of George Floyd suggest the mass gatherings may not result in a spike in COVID-19 infections.
 

More than 3,300 people who participated in protests and community events after Floyd’s death were tested for the coronavirus this week at four community testing sites.
 

Results from about 40 percent of the coronavirus tests done in St. Paul and Minneapolis this week show 1.4 percent of participants who were tested had contracted COVID-19. Health officials are awaiting the rest of the test results and are encouraging anyone who participated in mass gatherings to get tested — regardless of symptoms.
 

The 1.4 percent positivity rate is lower than the 3.7 positivity rate of the more than 13,000 test results reported Friday. It is lower than the current seven-day average rate of positive tests, which is also 3.7 percent.
 

</snip>

 

Yet we cant have 4th of July fireworks. Sad.

[GG]

2 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

Forgive my ignorance, but is this a way to level the playing field with the Chinas of the world?  Become a little more manipulative like they already are?

 

Abso ***** lutely not!

[fansince88]

Spoke with a truck driver today. He was furloughed but came back to work 2 weeks ago. Made just shy of what he was making peddling freight everyday.  He was one of 5 they called back. The other 4 wont answer the phone. They cant fire them but they cant force them to answer the phone. System failure again. Jobs are there waiting on them to come back to work but they wont because they're making as much on UE.

Just now, Jaraxxus said:

 

Can't celebrate anything about this #raysis country.

 

Well, Im being told Im one of them raysis so I can. 

[Cinga]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

3 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Possible but not sure how likely.  It all depends on the businesses that are permanently gone.  If there are a sizable number of those, then those don't get replaced overnight.  What Wells Fargo is describing wouldn't a V.  As they don't expect 6% unemployment for another 18 months

 

I just don't see this. My brother needed a new TV recently, but literally everything around here in MD is sold out of them. I wanted a new chest freezer to put out on the deck. I hate our upright. But around here, and online, I couldn't find any 7 to 9 sq ft ones I wanted. especially Made in the USA ones. Point is, manufacturing was shut down for the most part, and even though buyers were wary, they still spent money and inventories are extremely low right now. 

Companies will e anxious to get that safe inventory back as quickly as they can boosting the economy quicker than this projection I suspect....

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, Cinga said:

 

I just don't see this. My brother needed a new TV recently, but literally everything around here in MD is sold out of them. I wanted a new chest freezer to put out on the deck. I hate our upright. But around here, and online, I couldn't find any 7 to 9 sq ft ones I wanted. especially Made in the USA ones. Point is, manufacturing was shut down for the most part, and even though buyers were wary, they still spent money and inventories are extremely low right now. 

Companies will e anxious to get that safe inventory back as quickly as they can boosting the economy quicker than this projection I suspect....

 

I strong believe that there is pent up demand and people's finances reflect that.  It's odd that during these times, more people have more money in their bank accounts than in any time in modern history.  It's truly bizarre. 

 

My concern is how many businesses have permanently shuddered?  And for me, that number will determine what sort of recovery we will have, whether it's V or Nike Swoosh.

 

The snap back though is real.

[123719bwiqrb]

5 minutes ago, Jaraxxus said:

 

I've personally saved like $500 on tolls and gas costs alone.

 

 

I built a war chest, as my Engineering company is schizophrenic when it comes to earnings and Wall Street results.  As expected, they called on a random Tuesday in April and let go about a 100 people.  Luckily I survived.  Now the snap back is happening and they can't get enough hands.  The management is so fickle sometimes.  I guess their excuse is "unprecedented times", but maybe have some foresight & compassion for the little sh*t workers sometimes?

Edited June 15, 2020 by 123719bwiqrb

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

21 minutes ago, Cinga said:

 

I just don't see this. My brother needed a new TV recently, but literally everything around here in MD is sold out of them. I wanted a new chest freezer to put out on the deck. I hate our upright. But around here, and online, I couldn't find any 7 to 9 sq ft ones I wanted. especially Made in the USA ones. Point is, manufacturing was shut down for the most part, and even though buyers were wary, they still spent money and inventories are extremely low right now. 

Companies will e anxious to get that safe inventory back as quickly as they can boosting the economy quicker than this projection I suspect....

 

 

...we are electrical contractors.....lead times PRE-COVID 19 for major electrical equipment (switch gear, transformers, generators, etc)were 12-20 weeks because of a strong economy.....now those lead times are 20-30 weeks and changing regularly.....I have a custom specialty trailer on order (Iowa) for one of our Divisions ...order was placed in Feb. 2020 with estimated ship date as mid-April 2020.....now they're saying possibly mid-July as they had to shut down....with farm implements being an essential manufacturing business, trailer company lost half of their work force as folks migrated.....I tried to order a Massey-Ferguson lawn tractor.....Massey says 8+ weeks, but they're actually manufactured in Japan which was 99% shut down.....realistically, it is 10-12 weeks......

[Koko78]

3 hours ago, ALF said:

 

How will a tax cut for those working help the millions of unemployed  and businesses going under ?

 

Payroll taxes are paid by the employer.

[ALF]

46 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

 

Payroll taxes are paid by the employer.

 

I was not sure if the cut was for employee or employer

 

How Much Money Would a Payroll Tax Save You

Every payday, 7.65% of your wages are subtracted from your paycheck to fund Social Security and Medicare (6.2% for Social Security; 1.45% for Medicare). Your employer pays an equivalent amount of tax. For 2020, the Social Security tax is only levied on the first $137,700 of earnings; however, an additional 0.9% Medicare tax is collected on wages over $200,000 for the year.

It's not clear if the Trump administration is pressing for a 100% payroll tax cut (i.e., no tax is taken out of your paycheck) or only a partial cut. Assuming it's a 100% cut, then someone making $15 per hour and working 40 hours per week would save about $46 per week, or slightly over $180 per month.

 

Democrats and some experts are also concerned about the impact on Social Security and Medicare, which are already dealing with financial issues. Since payroll taxes fund the two programs, they are worried about the long-term effects of diverting money away from these two social safety nets.

 

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/taxes/T054-C005-S001-what-a-payroll-tax-cut-would-mean-for-you.html

 

Unless the federal gov makes up the loss to SS and medicare then I would be against it

Edited June 15, 2020 by ALF

[Magox]

Did I say that we are off to the races yet?

 

Off to the races!!

 

 

[Magox]

Off to the races!!

 

Quote

 

A faster-than-expected turnaround in homebuyer demand, following a sharp drop-off at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, has the nation’s homebuilders bullish on their business again.

Builder sentiment jumped a striking 21 points in June to 58, the largest one-month increase ever, on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Any reading above 50 indicates a positive market. In April, it plunged a record 42 points to 30.

 

“As the nation reopens, housing is well-positioned to lead the economy forward,” said NAHB Chairman Dean Mon, a home builder and developer from Shrewsbury, N.J. “Inventory is tight, mortgage applications are increasing, interest rates are low and confidence is rising.”

Meanwhile, mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home jumped 10.9% annually in May, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

 

 

 

Another great sign!

 

As long as we don't get any paternalistic governors and local officials to get in the way, things are starting off much better than anyone could have possibly imagined.

[123719bwiqrb]

10 minutes ago, Magox said:

Off to the races!!

 

 

 

Another great sign!

 

As long as we don't get any paternalistic governors and local officials to get in the way, things are starting off much better than anyone could have possibly imagined.

 

Cue the articles that outline how the trump, himself, personally "fudged" the numbers.  You'll see it by Friday.

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

[Magox]

Off to the races!

 

Quote

 

Buyers are rushing back into the housing market, enticed by record low mortgage rates and a pandemic-induced need to nest like never before.

Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 4% last week from the previous week and were a remarkable 21% higher than one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. That was the ninth consecutive week of gains and the highest volume in more than 11 years. 

 

“The housing market continues to experience the release of unrealized pent-up demand from earlier this spring, as well as a gradual improvement in consumer confidence,” said MBA economist Joel Kan.

 

 

[Magox]

To piggy back off the last post.

 

 

 

[RiotAct]

my wife and I just refi’d.  Went from 4.75% to 3.375%.

[Hedge]

1 hour ago, RiotAct said:

my wife and I just refi’d.  Went from 4.75% to 3.375%.

 

Great time to do it. We just started the process as well, dropping from 23 years left at 3.65%, down to 20 years at 2.875%

[Warren Zevon]

3 minutes ago, Hedge said:

 

Great time to do it. We just started the process as well, dropping from 23 years left at 3.65%, down to 20 years at 2.875%

 

Don't forget the Q drop too

[B-Man]

 

[Hedge]

[B-Man]

 

[Buffalo_Gal]