Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[K-9]

5 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

Mass hysteria right now. Wow.

There’s a line between mass hysteria and implementing stringent, common sense public health measures. Bottom line is that ANY potential for groups of people to gather, especially in closed spaces, has to be curtailed. Limiting exposure is the first line of defense. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Taco Bell during a toilet paper shortage seems unwise.

 

 

....perhaps a need for drive-thru bathrooms would be the appropriate corrective measure??...........

7 minutes ago, row_33 said:

I would like to get some groceries, nothing like grabbing 8 loaves of bread, this could be fun

 

...Wegmans is now even rationing bread, albeit packaged or their baked in store offerings......

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, Augie said:

Here’s maybe a silly question: If we had the tests, and could confirm who has actually got the virus, what would we do differently? There is no magic pill, right? If it’s Covid-19 or some other flu strain, you stay home to isolate and recuperate, hopefully. Is there something different you would do? At least initially?

 

This is a good question.  I'll take it, but welcome other perspectives as well.

 

Ultimately, mitigation ("flattening the curve") is not enough.   We need containment.

 

A lot of what needs to be done for containment, could be done without a test, but a test is a huge help in directing and prioritizing efforts and ultimately a rapid, widely available test is necessary to return toward economic normality and prevent economic damage.

Since Fever is the single most common symptom of Covid-19 (~90%), it would help a lot if everyone with fever could be tested for Covid-19 and directed to self-quarantine if positive.  If a slow, limited throughput test is still being used, at least test what we can rapidly test for (strep, flu etc) and if negative - then test for Covid-19.  I'm dreaming?

 

OK, how about at least test people with two common symptoms (fever and dry cough, 68%), and quarantine/contact trace the positives?

 

 

 

 

 

[Gugny]

6 minutes ago, row_33 said:

I would like to get some groceries, nothing like grabbing 8 loaves of bread, this could be fun

 

My normal routine is to do a walmart/grocery store run every Saturday.  Didn't even bother with Walmart.  Other than laundry/bathroom supplies, toilet paper and paper towels, the only thing I get there is coffee (my local supermarket doesn't carry my coffee).  I have plenty of all of that stuff, so I'll save myself the headache.

 

Went to the market and was able get everything on my list except meat and some veggies.  For some reason, people seem to be buying lots of bell peppers.  They were out of green and red.  All ground beef was gone.  All italian sausage was gone - ground and links.  There was no meat in the butcher's case at all (I was going to get shaved steak).

 

Gonna try again today and go to multiple places if I have to.

 

Apparently, people in my hometown normally have very few rolls of toilet paper at any given time and also have empty freezers.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

38 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...this could be a growing trend as well........

 

"Starting Monday night, Hoboken NJ residents will be under curfew from 10 p.m. until 5 a.m. the next day."

 

Because you can't contract Covid19 in a crowded bar at 9:45 pm?

My kid's college suspended classes for 2 weeks as of 5 pm Friday, and literally "implored" students to return home ASAP.  Spring break was in 3 weeks and classes will resume after break in an online-only format.  The dorms will close to all students (exceptions may be requested by students who can't go home), and the "imploring" is directed at the roughly 1/3-1/2 of the student body who live in apartments off-campus.

There were immediate parties in known gathering areas and that evening, in the bars and apartments of the area where most live.   My kid's major sent out a note suggesting a big party for all of them.   Kid said "this is a really bad idea" .   Apparently local police cracked down on noisy parties after 10 pm.  So now, students have publicized a "Block Party" to take place from 12 noon to 6 pm Monday.  ?

 

There's a reason that historically, nations prefer soldiers from this demographic.  The sense of invulnerability is strong.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

25 minutes ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

We’re supposed to go on 4/26. Not holding out much hope it will happen but it’s all booked on Marriott / southwest points anyways so no reason to cancel yet. 

 

...certainly hope you're ok 30 days out......I get five weeks paid vacation a year and take only one week with my kids and daughter in law (DUMBAZZ).....my daughter runs a major event venue in Rochester and works every weekend.....pretty proud that she's only 26 and does $3 mil/yr......despite Aruba's GDP lifeblood being 80% tourism, they have shut down schools as well as cancelling public, private and cultural activities (but no definitive description of what that means)......if the US eventually mandates 14 day self quarantine for ANY international US citizen travelers, none of us could afford to be out of work for 3 weeks combined nor do I relish significant airport delays (Aruba's airport is THE worst)....it sucks...

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Because you can't contract Covid19 in a crowded bar at 9:45 pm?

 

 

 

...not to worry Hap!......last call is 9:30 with guaranteed immunity................9:45 and you're on your own....

Edited March 15, 2020 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[DrDawkinstein]

Wife ran out this morning. Both Kroger and Publix were well stocked and completely normal. She hit both stores, got everything we needed (and not OVERstocked) and was back within an hour. No big deal.

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Wife ran out this morning. Both Kroger and Publix were well stocked and completely normal. She hit both stores, got everything we needed (and not OVERstocked) and was back within an hour. No big deal.

 

That's awesome.  I'm hearing that supermarkets are getting more frequent deliveries to keep up with demand, so hopefully our local markets can catch up.

[Jrb1979]

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

That's awesome.  I'm hearing that supermarkets are getting more frequent deliveries to keep up with demand, so hopefully our local markets can catch up.

That and at least in my area its starting to go back to normal. Grocery stores are crazy busy like they were. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

That's awesome.  I'm hearing that supermarkets are getting more frequent deliveries to keep up with demand, so hopefully our local markets can catch up.

 

 

...Wegmans here in Rochester as well as Tops which is Buffalo based, have started rationing canned goods (ie. soups, veggies, etc) as well as fresh meat, poultry, pork, etc., adding to their growing rations list......Wegmans is a major customer of ours and our electricians stationed at their main warehouse facility here said it is virtually empty....they just cannot get resupply fast enough to meet the panic demand.....

[Augie]

17 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

....perhaps a need for drive-thru bathrooms would be the appropriate corrective measure??...........

 

 

....or, perhaps Taco Bell is out of toilet paper and want no part of they mess they are responsible for? 

[row_33]

curfews....

 

back in the day the newly liberated (so they thought) generation older than me would answer curfew settings by saying they’d sleep with as many as they wanted by 10pm anyway

 

and they didn’t use that euphemistic term either

 

 

[BUFFALOKIE]

Let me know when deaths begin outpacing births. Not that ther is anything wrong with that.

 

You know this has to happen eventually, right? 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Interesting article in JAMA (Journal of American Medical Association) about measures taken by Taiwan to contain Covid-19 (it focuses on strategy and omits some description of tactics).  Taiwan was widely expected to develop a severe epidemic:

 

Taiwan is 81 miles off the coast of mainland China and was expected to have the second highest number of cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to its proximity to and number of flights between China.¹ The country has 23 million citizens of which 850 000 reside in and 404 000 work in China.^2,3 In 2019, 2.71 million visitors from the mainland traveled to Taiwan.  COVID-19 [emerged] just before the Lunar New Year during which time millions of Chinese and Taiwanese were expected to travel for the holidays.
Basically public health experts around the world fully expected Taiwan to be pulverized by Covid19.  Taiwan collectively said "Nope, not THIS island!"

 

First of all, Taiwan had a clear command and control structure to handle epidemics, with plans in place.  This saves time and helps protect against in-fighting between agencies:

In 2004, the year after the SARS outbreak, the Taiwan government established the National Health Command Center (NHCC). The NHCC is part of a disaster management center that focuses on large-outbreak response and acts as the operational command point for direct communications among central, regional, and local authorities. The NHCC unified a central command system that includes the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC), the Biological Pathogen Disaster Command Center, the Counter-Bioterrorism Command Center, and the Central Medical Emergency Operations Center.

As soon as they learned of the problem, Taiwan acted:
On December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was notified of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, China, Taiwanese officials began to board planes and assess passengers on direct flights from Wuhan for fever and pneumonia symptoms before passengers could deplane. January 5, 2020, notification was expanded to include any individual who had traveled to Wuhan in the past 14 days and had a fever or symptoms of upper respiratory tract infection at the point of entry; suspected cases were screened for 26 viruses including SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Passengers displaying symptoms of fever and coughing were quarantined at home and assessed whether medical attention at a hospital was necessary. 

Note that these steps were taken without a test.  Quarantine at home is both enforced using cell phone tracking, and supported by regular wellness checks and provision of food. 

 

On January 20, while sporadic cases were reported from China, the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) officially activated the CECC for severe special infectious pneumonia under NHCC, with the minister of health and welfare as the designated commander. The CECC coordinated efforts by various ministries, including the ministries of transportation, economics, labor, and education and the Environmental Protection Administration, among others, in a comprehensive effort to counteract the emerging public health crisis. 

For the past 5 weeks (January 20-February 24), the CECC has rapidly produced and implemented a list of at least 124 action items including (...) case identification (using new data and technology), quarantine of suspicious cases, proactive case finding, resource allocation (assessing and managing capacity), reassurance and education of the public.....

 

On January 27, the National Health Insurance Administration (NHIA) and the National Immigration Agency integrated patients’ past 14-day travel history with their NHI identification card data from the NHIA; this was accomplished in 1 day. Taiwan citizens’ household registration system and the foreigners’ entry card allowed the government to track individuals at high risk because of recent travel history in affected areas. Those identified as high risk (under home quarantine) were monitored electronically through their mobile phones. On January 30, the NHIA database was expanded to cover the past 14-day travel history for patients from China, Hong Kong, and Macau.

On February 14, the Entry Quarantine System was launched, so travelers can complete the health declaration form by scanning a QR code that leads to an online form, either prior to departure from or upon arrival at a Taiwan airport. A mobile health declaration pass was then sent via SMS to phones using a local telecom operator, which allowed for faster immigration clearance for those with minimal risk. [Persons with low risk (no travel to level 3 alert areas) were sent a health declaration border pass via SMS (short message service) messaging to their phones for faster immigration clearance; those with higher risk (recent travel to level 3 alert areas) were quarantined at home and tracked through their mobile phone to ensure that they remained at home during the incubation period.]  This system was created within a 72-hour period. On February 18, the government announced that all hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies in Taiwan would have access to patients’ travel histories.  (In other words, if you had traveled during the past 14 days and went to the clinic with fever or cough, or even the pharmacy to get cough or fever medicine, the doctor or pharmacist got an alert to treat this as a potential Covid-19 case. )

Again, none of these measures require a test.  They do require centralized command and control and rapid decision making, but a lot of the strategies and tactics had been thought out and planned in advance and were simply implemented.

We could do (or have done) a lot of the stuff Taiwan did using big data, with questions, but they have to be better questions than "have you traveled to China?" at a point where the disease was popping up all over Europe or "have you traveled to a level 3 alert area in the last month?" which requires someone to know WTF that means. 

Fundamentally, we have lacked a centralized, nimble response - it has been left piecemeal to local governments, individual health care providers and businesses to process information and react appropriately, which takes longer and is less efficient.  And bluntly: If you don't track quarantine, some people won't comply.  If you don't support quarantine with food and health checks, people can't comply.
 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Because you can't contract Covid19 in a crowded bar at 9:45 pm?

My kid's college suspended classes for 2 weeks as of 5 pm Friday, and literally "implored" students to return home ASAP.  Spring break was in 3 weeks and classes will resume after break in an online-only format.  The dorms will close to all students (exceptions may be requested by students who can't go home), and the "imploring" is directed at the roughly 1/3-1/2 of the student body who live in apartments off-campus.

There were immediate parties in known gathering areas and that evening, in the bars and apartments of the area where most live.   My kid's major sent out a note suggesting a big party for all of them.   Kid said "this is a really bad idea" .   Apparently local police cracked down on noisy parties after 10 pm.  So now, students have publicized a "Block Party" to take place from 12 noon to 6 pm Monday.  ?

 

There's a reason that historically, nations prefer soldiers from this demographic.  The sense of invulnerability is strong.

 

 

 

..several of my co-workers with collegians are picking them up this weekend as dorms are being closed and classes will be on-line only for the rest of the semester.....some conjecture has been "wonder if I will get a room and board refund".....what are you faced with?...........

[Augie]

23 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

My normal routine is to do a walmart/grocery store run every Saturday.  Didn't even bother with Walmart.  Other than laundry/bathroom supplies, toilet paper and paper towels, the only thing I get there is coffee (my local supermarket doesn't carry my coffee).  I have plenty of all of that stuff, so I'll save myself the headache.

 

Went to the market and was able get everything on my list except meat and some veggies.  For some reason, people seem to be buying lots of bell peppers.  They were out of green and red.  All ground beef was gone.  All italian sausage was gone - ground and links.  There was no meat in the butcher's case at all (I was going to get shaved steak).

 

Gonna try again today and go to multiple places if I have to.

 

Apparently, people in my hometown normally have very few rolls of toilet paper at any given time and also have empty freezers.

 

My wife went to the HUGE Publix near us and was disappointed. Very little available. On a whim, she went to the much smaller PUblix 2 miles in the other direction, and you could get almost anything! No TP or hand sanitizer, stuff like that, but lots of chicken and vegetables, etc. 

[RaoulDuke79]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Interesting article in JAMA (Journal of American Medical Association) about measures taken by Taiwan to contain Covid-19 (it focuses on strategy and omits some description of tactics).  Taiwan was widely expected to develop a severe epidemic:

 

Taiwan is 81 miles off the coast of mainland China and was expected to have the second highest number of cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to its proximity to and number of flights between China.¹ The country has 23 million citizens of which 850 000 reside in and 404 000 work in China.^2,3 In 2019, 2.71 million visitors from the mainland traveled to Taiwan.  COVID-19 [emerged] just before the Lunar New Year during which time millions of Chinese and Taiwanese were expected to travel for the holidays.
Basically public health experts around the world fully expected Taiwan to be pulverized by Covid19.  Taiwan collectively said "Nope, not THIS island!"

 

First of all, Taiwan had a clear command and control structure to handle epidemics, with plans in place.  This saves time and helps protect against in-fighting between agencies:

 

In 2004, the year after the SARS outbreak, the Taiwan government established the National Health Command Center (NHCC). The NHCC is part of a disaster management center that focuses on large-outbreak response and acts as the operational command point for direct communications among central, regional, and local authorities. The NHCC unified a central command system that includes the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC), the Biological Pathogen Disaster Command Center, the Counter-Bioterrorism Command Center, and the Central Medical Emergency Operations Center.

If nothing else hopefully we can learn from this as they did.

Edited March 15, 2020 by RaoulDuke79

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

 

 

Taiwan:
"On February 14, the Entry Quarantine System was launched, so travelers can complete the health declaration form by scanning a QR code that leads to an online form, either prior to departure from or upon arrival at a Taiwan airport. A mobile health declaration pass was then sent via SMS to phones using a local telecom operator, which allowed for faster immigration clearance for those with minimal risk. This system was created within a 72-hour period."

 

23 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

If nothing else hope we can learn from this as they did.

 

We need to.

 

[Augie]

30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Because you can't contract Covid19 in a crowded bar at 9:45 pm?

My kid's college suspended classes for 2 weeks as of 5 pm Friday, and literally "implored" students to return home ASAP.  Spring break was in 3 weeks and classes will resume after break in an online-only format.  The dorms will close to all students (exceptions may be requested by students who can't go home), and the "imploring" is directed at the roughly 1/3-1/2 of the student body who live in apartments off-campus.

There were immediate parties in known gathering areas and that evening, in the bars and apartments of the area where most live.   My kid's major sent out a note suggesting a big party for all of them.   Kid said "this is a really bad idea" .   Apparently local police cracked down on noisy parties after 10 pm.  So now, students have publicized a "Block Party" to take place from 12 noon to 6 pm Monday.  ?

 

There's a reason that historically, nations prefer soldiers from this demographic.  The sense of invulnerability is strong.

 

My buddies daughter is getting moved out of her dorm in Columbia, SC today. He asked if I wanted to join him and his wife in two giant SUV’s to get all her stuff. I’m a pretty good guy, but 7 hours round trip? To help her move out of a Petri dish? How much stuff can she cram into a small portion of a dorm room? I determined that A) she’s got too much $%#&, and B) I didn’t move my own kid of of his dorm room! 

 

I politely declined. 

 

 

.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Augie

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, Augie said:

My wife went to the HUGE Publix near us and was disappointed. Very little available. On a whim, she went to the much smaller PUblix 2 miles in the other direction, and you could get almost anything! No TP or hand sanitizer, stuff like that, but lots of chicken and vegetables, etc. 

 

Sounds like what my kid said.....she and a friend had gone shopping earlier in the week, no problems buying most items.  On Friday, a different friend found that the Wegmans in town was stripped bare.  A mile away, Tops was just fine, could buy almost anything but hand sanitizer and wipes.  I was told by a "knowledgeable source" that this isn't a supply chain problem at this point, it's just a spike in buying patterns that have outpaced the store's stocking abilities to keep up and that the stores should restock this week.
 

11 minutes ago, Augie said:

My buddies daughter is getting moved out of her dorm in Columbia, SC today. He asked if I wanted to join him and his wife in two giant SUV’s to get all her stuff. I’m a pretty good guy, but 7 hours round trip? To help her move out of a Petri dish? How much stuff can she cram into a small portion of a dorm room? I determined that A) she’s got too much $%#&, and B) I didn’t move my own kid of of his dorm room! 

 

I politely declined.

 

Please tell your friend that U-Haul is offering 30 days free storage for students:

"The moving company will be offering free storage for 30 days to college students who have been displaced because of coronavirus precautions, U-Haul spokesperson Jeff Lockridge told Insider. This means that students in a bind will have a place to store all their belongings—their string lights, mini fridges, under-desk storage units, etc.—without cost as they figure out their next move.

While the company already offers regular customers a free 30 days of storage when they rent a U-Haul truck or trailer, this deal won't require students to purchase or rent anything. "It is merely a gesture of goodwill given the extraordinary circumstances taking place and our ability to help," Lockridge said. He also notes that the offer will be available at all U-Haul storage facilities across the nation, however, will be dependent on occupancy. In the case there is no more room at a particular facility, the student will be directed to a location with space."

I'm also somewhat amused - we're considered hard-assed atavists because last year, we expected our daughter to pack up her stuff, rent a U-haul van, and move it out of her 5th floor dorm room into a self storage unit - by herself in <24 hrs.  She biked to the U-haul, rented the van, and acquired what she described as "tall friends with large biceps" to help her lug stuff down 5 flights and load the van (she also moved friends' stuff for them, didn't have nearly enough of her own to fill the van).  Unloaded by herself at the storage unit (including a friend's items and her bike), drove the U-haul back, and got a friend to pick her up (she could have Ubered). 

Left on their own, these kids can actually cope.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

New York restaurants and bars have to cap their seating capacity at half.

 

This is going to have a significant impact on servers, bartenders and the owners of mom & pop diners, bars, etc.  Servers and bartenders don't get PTO and most of their earnings are tips.  

 

I'm not saying it's the wrong thing to do; just emphasizing how sad it is.

 

The problem that I have with measures like this and like the NJ 10 pm curfew is that I don't think there's any particular evidence they're effective epidemiological public health measures (especially the 10 pm curfew).  This is the problem with having a strategy that is piecemeal and driven by local ideas recently created in a room full of people who want to "do something",  instead of central decision making driven by "best practices".

Leaving aside the point that half-capacity for some restaurants is still more closely spaced than full-capacity for others.....

-a server who may be ill will still be leaning over diners placing plates and removing empties

-there is recently published study in NEJM that Covid19 may linger in the air as aerosol for 3 hrs and travel a bit further than previously thought (maybe 6-8 ft)

-patrons will all be in common space and touching common surfaces waiting for seating and using restrooms

 

It would probably be more effective to have a screener at the door asking if the employee or customer had taken fever medication or was coughing, checking for temperature, and barring those with fever and cough, asking them to return home and contact their physician.

 

 

 

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The problem that I have with measures like this and like the NJ 10 pm curfew is that I don't think there's any particular evidence they're effective epidemiological public health measures (especially the 10 pm curfew).

Leaving aside the point that half-capacity for some restaurants is still more closely spaced than full-capacity for others.....

-a server who may be ill will still be leaning over diners placing plates and removing empties

-there is recently published study in NEJM that Covid19 may linger in the air as aerosol for 3 hrs and travel a bit further than previously thought (maybe 6-8 ft)

 

It would probably be more effective to have a screener at the door asking if the employee or customer had taken fever medication or was coughing, checking for temperature, and barring those with fever and cough, asking them to return home and contact their physician.

 

 

 

 

I question the curfew method, too.  Most people are in by 10pm, anyway.  And if they make a curfew beginning earlier, say 5pm - then you've got gigantic masses of people out in the earlier hours trying to get stuff done.

 

[John in Jax]

44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Since Fever is the single most common symptom of Covid-19 (~90%), it would help a lot if everyone with fever could be tested for Covid-19 and directed to self-quarantine if positive.  If a slow, limited throughput test is still being used, at least test what we can rapidly test for (strep, flu etc) and if negative - then test for Covid-19.  I'm dreaming?

 

OK, how about at least test people with two common symptoms (fever and dry cough, 68%), and quarantine/contact trace the positives?

I saw a female 30 something on a cable news network last night who tested positive, and she had zero symptoms! She said she had recently gone to a party with a lot of people in attendance. I’m not quite sure why / how she was tested.

 

I personally have had a slight sore throat, slight/intermittent dry cough, constant stuffy nose, and slight on/off headache since Thursday afternoon, but NO fever and no shortness of breath. I called my Dr, and I’ve been self medicating like crazy since then, and stayed home from work on Friday. Of course, I’ve scoured the internet for reliable info on symptoms of Covid-19 vs Flu vs Allergies vs a Cold. My conclusion is that I‘ve got a “regular” old cold, but I can’t be 100% sure of that. 
 

And to add: I haven’t been out of FL since November (was up in Buffalo), and I do not regularly come in contact with a lot of people, and my job has me driving around north/central FL 90% of the workday (about 1000 miles per week on my truck) doing inspections at various construction sites. And normally, I am always washing my hands and/or using hand sanitizer.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

46 minutes ago, BUFFALOKIE said:

Let me know when deaths begin outpacing births. Not that ther is anything wrong with that.

 

You know this has to happen eventually, right? 

 

OK, you know

 

https://worldbirthsanddeaths.com/

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...not to worry Hap!......last call is 9:30 with guaranteed immunity................9:45 and you're on your own....

this is normally when panic buying sets in.

[Gray Beard]

@Hapless Bills Fan

 

Stupid question, perhaps already discussed upstream...

 

There are many anecdotal stories of people who say they have had flu-like symptoms in recent months, yet they tested negative for the flu. Their claim is that Covid-19 has been around longer than people might think.   I doubt that this is the case, but I have nothing other than a gut feel.  What say you?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

I saw a female 30 something on a cable news network last night who tested positive, and she had zero symptoms! She said she had recently gone to a party with a lot of people in attendance. I’m not quite sure why / how she was tested.

 

I personally have had a slight sore throat, slight/intermittent dry cough, constant stuffy nose, and slight on/off headache since Thursday afternoon, but NO fever and no shortness of breath. I called my Dr, and I’ve been self medicating like crazy since then, and stayed home from work on Friday. Of course, I’ve scoured the internet for reliable info on symptoms of Covid-19 vs Flu vs Allergies vs a Cold. My conclusion is that I‘ve got a “regular” old cold, but I can’t be 100% sure of that. 
 

And to add: I haven’t been out of FL since November (was up in Buffalo), and I do not regularly come in contact with a lot of people, and my job has me driving around north/central FL 90% of the workday (about 1000 miles per week on my truck) doing inspections at various construction sites. And normally, I am always washing my hands and/or using hand sanitizer.

 

WHO-China Joint Commission (largest data on symptoms): "Symptoms of COVID-19 are non-specific and the disease presentation can range from no symptoms (asymptomatic) to severe pneumonia and death. As of 20 February 2020 and based on 55924 laboratory confirmed cases, typical signs and symptoms include: fever (87.9%), dry cough (67.7%), fatigue (38.1%), sputum production (33.4%), shortness of breath (18.6%), sore throat (13.9%), headache (13.6%), myalgia or arthralgia (14.8%), chills (11.4%), nausea or vomiting (5.0%), nasal congestion (4.8%), diarrhea (3.7%), and hemoptysis (0.9%),and conjunctival congestion (0.8%)."

What did your doctor say?  The symptom probabilities suggest that a stuffy nose and no fever means high probability of cold/other virus and not Covid-19, but that's just playing the probabilities.  Remember of course that if you are taking anti-fever medication or cold meds that contain same, it will mask fever.

 

This is where a readily available test would be extremely helpful, so well-intentioned persons such as yourself could be told "yes, you have it, self-quarantine" or "just a cold, As you Were". 

[Gugny]

 

It's people like this who are running our country.  God help us all.

[John in Jax]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

WHO-China Joint Commission (largest data on symptoms): "Symptoms of COVID-19 are non-specific and the disease presentation can range from no symptoms (asymptomatic) to severe pneumonia and death. As of 20 February 2020 and based on 55924 laboratory confirmed cases, typical signs and symptoms include: fever (87.9%), dry cough (67.7%), fatigue (38.1%), sputum production (33.4%), shortness of breath (18.6%), sore throat (13.9%), headache (13.6%), myalgia or arthralgia (14.8%), chills (11.4%), nausea or vomiting (5.0%), nasal congestion (4.8%), diarrhea (3.7%), and hemoptysis (0.9%),and conjunctival congestion (0.8%)."

What did your doctor say?  The symptom probabilities suggest that a stuffy nose and no fever means high probability of cold/other virus and not Covid-19, but that's just playing the probabilities.  Remember of course that if you are taking anti-fever medication or cold meds that contain same, it will mask fever.

 

This is where a readily available test would be extremely helpful, so well-intentioned persons such as yourself could be told "yes, you have it, self-quarantine" or "just a cold, As you Were". 

Dr said to self medicate, wait it out til tomorrow morning, and if I’m worse, go in for a visit. And yes, I’d like to be tested ASAP. I have not quarantined myself, but I have been extremely careful when I’ve been out so as to not cough/sneeze on my hands, and then touch a surface. To add, I am rarely sneezing, and only coughing about 2-3x an hour, some hours with no cough at all. I’m not severely fatigued either; went for a motorcycle ride yesterday, as well as cut the grass/did yard work (it’s 80 degrees down here).

[Gugny]

For those wondering if they should cancel/postpone travel plans:

 

Airbnb is offering 100% refunds.  It took me less than a minute to cancel and get the refund going.

 

I just spoke to my travel agent about canceling my trip to Puerto Rico (scheduled for 4/10 - 4/16).  If I cancel now, I will get vouchers for my flights that I can use anytime within a year.

 

My rental car will be refunded.

 

If travel is restricted, airlines will be giving refunds.  My cutoff to cancel is 48 hours prior, so I'm going to wait it out with hopes that I can get a refund.

 

[BUFFALOKIE]

19 minutes ago, Gray Beard said:

@Hapless Bills Fan

 

Stupid question, perhaps already discussed upstream...

 

There are many anecdotal stories of people who say they have had flu-like symptoms in recent months, yet they tested negative for the flu. Their claim is that Covid-19 has been around longer than people might think.   I doubt that this is the case, but I have nothing other than a gut feel.  What say you?

Since you asked, yes. I missed three days of work three weeks ago tomorrow. Flu like cold sweats, achy body and stomach pain. Low fever. Dad had same and his dr. Said no flu. I didn't go to dr.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, Gray Beard said:

@Hapless Bills Fan

 

Stupid question, perhaps already discussed upstream...

 

There are many anecdotal stories of people who say they have had flu-like symptoms in recent months, yet they tested negative for the flu. Their claim is that Covid-19 has been around longer than people might think.   I doubt that this is the case, but I have nothing other than a gut feel.  What say you?

 

The answer is up thread in a couple places, but I'll try to summarize here. 

 

For starters, please bear in mind that ALL clinical tests for disease have a known false negative rate, and there are several different strains of flu and some other viruses known to cause flu-like symptoms.  So a negative for one type of flu, may still be flu if other types weren't tested, and may still be the type tested for (but a false negative for several reasons, not all having to do with the test itself).  They may still have had flu.

 

That said:

 

Taiwan has been taking measures since 31 December: "On December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was notified of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, China, Taiwanese officials began to board planes and assess passengers on direct flights from Wuhan for fever and pneumonia symptoms before passengers could deplane. As early as January 5, 2020, notification was expanded to include any individual who had traveled to Wuhan in the past 14 days and had a fever or symptoms of upper respiratory tract infection at the point of entry"

 

-When did the US start taking measures?  Not until recently, and not as extensively, right?  People who have traveled through international airports (but not to level 3 countries, or to level 3 countries but before that declaration was made) still can't get tested even if they have relevant symptoms (fever, cough, difficulty breathing).

-There is a community transmission cluster in Washington State apparently initiated by a traveler returning from Wuhan on or about 15 January (before the city locked down, at a point where Wuhan had perhaps 500 actual cases of Covid19).

 

My take is that it's probable that at least a handful of travelers returning from China between late December and late January probably had Covid19, and started clusters of the virus all over the country.  Some of them probably died away, and some of them have probably been quietly spreading communally and are at a point where they will start to "bloom" and be seen as excess numbers of serious pneumonias or deaths among susceptible populations.

 

FWIW, this isn't just my take.  I quote the guy so much people are going to start to think I'm his publicist, but here you go from my Fred Hutch guy Trevor Bedford.  Keep in mind that back-of-the-envelope calculations by a trained epidemiologist who does it for a living are a bit different than "guesses" or "making up numbers" by Joe Public - experience and education matters.  Just as a trained scout can estimate 40 time pretty accurately by watching a guy, a trained epidemiologist can guess what's going on pretty accurately by taking a few facts and synthesizing.

(edit: he means it's a bit sooner than he predicted, 8 wks vs 10)

[he's saying he believes that because of limited testing and contact tracking, there may be ~10 covid-19 cases for every reported infection]

 

 

 

 

[BUFFALOKIE]

28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, you know

 

https://worldbirthsanddeaths.com/

That is a very interesting link Hap. Thank you.

 

If that tracker is true, oh boy. Really puts some things in perspective. How can the world continue at a 4 births to 1.5 deaths per second rate?

 

I dont predict when, but that ratio will turn eventually, guaranteed.

 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Interesting article in JAMA (Journal of American Medical Association) about measures taken by Taiwan to contain Covid-19 (it focuses on strategy and omits some description of tactics).  Taiwan was widely expected to develop a severe epidemic:

 

Taiwan is 81 miles off the coast of mainland China and was expected to have the second highest number of cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to its proximity to and number of flights between China.¹ The country has 23 million citizens of which 850 000 reside in and 404 000 work in China.^2,3 In 2019, 2.71 million visitors from the mainland traveled to Taiwan.  COVID-19 [emerged] just before the Lunar New Year during which time millions of Chinese and Taiwanese were expected to travel for the holidays.
Basically public health experts around the world fully expected Taiwan to be pulverized by Covid19.  Taiwan collectively said "Nope, not THIS island!"

 

First of all, Taiwan had a clear command and control structure to handle epidemics, with plans in place.  This saves time and helps protect against in-fighting between agencies:

In 2004, the year after the SARS outbreak, the Taiwan government established the National Health Command Center (NHCC). The NHCC is part of a disaster management center that focuses on large-outbreak response and acts as the operational command point for direct communications among central, regional, and local authorities. The NHCC unified a central command system that includes the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC), the Biological Pathogen Disaster Command Center, the Counter-Bioterrorism Command Center, and the Central Medical Emergency Operations Center.

As soon as they learned of the problem, Taiwan acted:
On December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was notified of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, China, Taiwanese officials began to board planes and assess passengers on direct flights from Wuhan for fever and pneumonia symptoms before passengers could deplane. January 5, 2020, notification was expanded to include any individual who had traveled to Wuhan in the past 14 days and had a fever or symptoms of upper respiratory tract infection at the point of entry; suspected cases were screened for 26 viruses including SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Passengers displaying symptoms of fever and coughing were quarantined at home and assessed whether medical attention at a hospital was necessary. 

Note that these steps were taken without a test.  Quarantine at home is both enforced using cell phone tracking, and supported by regular wellness checks and provision of food. 

 

On January 20, while sporadic cases were reported from China, the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) officially activated the CECC for severe special infectious pneumonia under NHCC, with the minister of health and welfare as the designated commander. The CECC coordinated efforts by various ministries, including the ministries of transportation, economics, labor, and education and the Environmental Protection Administration, among others, in a comprehensive effort to counteract the emerging public health crisis. 

For the past 5 weeks (January 20-February 24), the CECC has rapidly produced and implemented a list of at least 124 action items including (...) case identification (using new data and technology), quarantine of suspicious cases, proactive case finding, resource allocation (assessing and managing capacity), reassurance and education of the public.....

 

On January 27, the National Health Insurance Administration (NHIA) and the National Immigration Agency integrated patients’ past 14-day travel history with their NHI identification card data from the NHIA; this was accomplished in 1 day. Taiwan citizens’ household registration system and the foreigners’ entry card allowed the government to track individuals at high risk because of recent travel history in affected areas. Those identified as high risk (under home quarantine) were monitored electronically through their mobile phones. On January 30, the NHIA database was expanded to cover the past 14-day travel history for patients from China, Hong Kong, and Macau.

On February 14, the Entry Quarantine System was launched, so travelers can complete the health declaration form by scanning a QR code that leads to an online form, either prior to departure from or upon arrival at a Taiwan airport. A mobile health declaration pass was then sent via SMS to phones using a local telecom operator, which allowed for faster immigration clearance for those with minimal risk. [Persons with low risk (no travel to level 3 alert areas) were sent a health declaration border pass via SMS (short message service) messaging to their phones for faster immigration clearance; those with higher risk (recent travel to level 3 alert areas) were quarantined at home and tracked through their mobile phone to ensure that they remained at home during the incubation period.]  This system was created within a 72-hour period. On February 18, the government announced that all hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies in Taiwan would have access to patients’ travel histories.  (In other words, if you had traveled during the past 14 days and went to the clinic with fever or cough, or even the pharmacy to get cough or fever medicine, the doctor or pharmacist got an alert to treat this as a potential Covid-19 case. )

Again, none of these measures require a test.  They do require centralized command and control and rapid decision making, but a lot of the strategies and tactics had been thought out and planned in advance and were simply implemented.

We could do (or have done) a lot of the stuff Taiwan did using big data, with questions, but they have to be better questions than "have you traveled to China?" at a point where the disease was popping up all over Europe or "have you traveled to a level 3 alert area in the last month?" which requires someone to know WTF that means. 

Fundamentally, we have lacked a centralized, nimble response - it has been left piecemeal to local governments, individual health care providers and businesses to process information and react appropriately, which takes longer and is less efficient.  And bluntly: If you don't track quarantine, some people won't comply.  If you don't support quarantine with food and health checks, people can't comply.
 

 

Well, in response to the Ebola scare, we actually created and put in place a uniform pandemic response strategy with a clear chain of command across several inter-agency departments, including the NSC, DHS, NIH, and CDC. In 2018, that was ended. For whatever reason. 
 

That is all I’m gonna say. 

[Chandler#81]

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

[BillsFan4]

2 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

It's people like this who are running our country.  God help us all.

I see people bragging about being out in crowded places all over social media. 

 

 

 

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, BillsFan4 said:

I see people bragging about being out in crowded places all over social media. 

 

***** morons.  Absolute ***** morons.

 

#oklaignorant

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by Gugny

[Lurker]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Is this another one of those Ed Orgeron PSAs?...

[BillsFan4]

Just now, Gugny said:

 

***** morons.  Absolute ***** morons.

And that was a governor! ?‍♂️