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Da webster guy

I know its just PFF but still, did #97 play that poorly?

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Short answer is 100% NO, he did not play poorly. I watched a ton of DT tape this season and from what I saw he played inconsistently, but certainly not poorly. When he was in the right packages and right playcalls (ie when down/distance meant he could use his first step and penetrate to QB) he was terrific. He just can't be relied upon to do much else well enough, often enough.

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If we cant stop the run there is no sacks.  Phillips is not good against the run.  He's actually surprisingly poor given he's the largest D lineman we have.  9.5 sacks is nice and he's a nice rotational piece in obvious passing situations.  Teams overpay in free agency so lets let someone else do it.  I think if teams look at film they will see the same thing.  Lot of the sacks (and this applies to everyone but Hughes) were unimpeded from blocking miscues/stunts and coverage.  I didn't see Phillips beating his blocker or pushing the pocket into the qb on a regular basis.

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2 hours ago, Irv said:

Many of his sacks and Shaq’s were poor blocking by the opponents O-lines.   They just ran straight in and plowed the QB.   I’d rather pay a guy like Hughes who gets held every play and earns his sacks. Adios Phillips. 

Maybe Hughes earns his sacks, but definitely not enough of them.

 

But I agree. Let Phillips walk unless he signs rotational DT contract numbers.

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Phillips rotates with Star correct? So you guys rather keep Star and let Phillips walk? Stars TFL this past season is 3, where Phillips is 13. Phillips is better against the run than Star, way better. Give Phillips a nice contract this year, then at the end of the season cut Star. Then replace star with a rookie in the 2021 draft. Problem solved.

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Love the energy he brings to the team.  He had his best performances in our three key away game victories (Titans, Cowboys, Steelers).  I trust the experts I guess but would love to see him back in the rotation if he doesn't get what he hopes for in the open market.

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3 hours ago, DuckyBoys said:

He's a rotational D lineman who does not play well against the run  Probably will get a nice payday hopefully somewhere else

So true.  Miami didn't just release him because he couldn't keep his mouth shut!

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48 minutes ago, costrovs said:

Phillips rotates with Star correct? So you guys rather keep Star and let Phillips walk? Stars TFL this past season is 3, where Phillips is 13. Phillips is better against the run than Star, way better. Give Phillips a nice contract this year, then at the end of the season cut Star. Then replace star with a rookie in the 2021 draft. Problem solved.

 

Incorrect.  Phillips rotates with Ed Oliver.  Horrible Harry rotates with Star.  Phillips/Oliver 3tech.  Harry/Star 1tech

 

Phillips and Lotulelei are not interchangeable.

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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Phillips never really jumped off the screen at me. So I wouldn't totally dispute the ratings. I felt Shaq Lawson made more of an impact. Not sure what PFF rated Shaq.

That’s exactly my feelings on it. Most of the time I wouldn’t notice Phillips was even in the game. When Shaq came in I could usually see a difference. 

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2 hours ago, costrovs said:

Phillips was our best D-lineman on the team this past season. I can't understand how some people don't realize that. just keeping it simple, stats and eyeball test says he was.

Lawson sucks, Hughes isn't as good as people think he is, Murphy isn't great either, and Lotulelei sucks also, and Oliver isn't gonna be what everyone thinks he's gonna be ( no, i'm not an Oliver fan - one of the few people that disliked the pick), I hope I'm wrong on Oliver, but he's undersized, and cocky. I'd take 6'5" 340+ lb D-linemen over 6'1 <300 lbs linemen everyday. 

 

One thing that really confuses me, is that some of you don't want to resign Phillips, but totally wanted OBD to sign Lawson to his 5th year contract last off-season ($10+ million). Phillips had just about the same number of sacks (9.5) in this year alone, than Lawson put up in his first 3 years here (10). He had 6.5 this year. You guys wanted to pay someone who hasn't done jack for 3 years, $10+ million, but sit there and say, 'hmmm, I don't really wanna pay Phillips $10 million a year, even though he played way better than Lawson, or Hughes, or anybody for that matter. But I'll be more than happy to shell out $10 million to a guy like Lawson who hasn't done a thing.'  wtf people?

 

  Now, would I pay Phillips $10+ million? I'd give him $8M - $12M a year over 4 or 5 years. Hell, Kyle Williams was getting around $10M a year over his last 3 years here. And Phillips has more sacks and more TFL's this past year, than Williams had his last 2 seasons here. 

so Phillips is the only reason on the dline that we had one of the best defenses this past year?!? I call bull on that one. He had a really good year, but he didn't do it on his own. I'm not here to say pay him or don't. Just calling bs on your "the whole dline except for Jordan sucks" comments. 😄

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Once again Pro football focus had Dak Prescott as the second most valuable player in the league and with 21 behind him he’s not even the most important person on his own offense 

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I expect the Bills to make what they think is a reasonable offer but not break the bank or go outside "the plan".  If he signs great if not and some other team offers outrageous term and money then he'd be wise to take it and maybe the Bills get a compensatory pick and find a better value replacement through free agency or the draft.

 

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2 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

The point that people are missing is the opportunity cost of letting Phillip's walk. It's not the money that Phillips will cost them in 2020 that is the issue. It's the capital they will need to use to replace him.  I assume the Bill's feel Oliver will be the starting 3 technique DT. That means the cost to replace Phillip's is what it will take to find a rotational 3 tech DT. That is probably a mid level FA or a 3rd round draft pick. 

So the question is for me, do you tag Phillips and overpay him when there is plenty of cap space to do so, OR do you let him walk and try to find a replacement? Bills historically have not used the tag well at all. The other upside of letting him walk would be the comp pick factor. But even Beane said this is probably not the year to have a net loss of free agents. That tells me they will ne active in free agency adding to the RB, WR, and both lines well before the draft.

 

After all is said, I tag Phillip's for leverage and see if a reasonable contract can be worked out. 

You let him walk and find a cheaper replacement.  Most likely, Oliver will improve this off-season and be ready for more snaps.  Get somebody better than Liuget.

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31 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Incorrect.  Phillips rotates with Ed Oliver.  Horrible Harry rotates with Star.  Phillips/Oliver 3tech.  Harry/Star 1tech

 

Phillips and Lotulelei are not interchangeable.

 

That's why I was asking, I wasn't sure. 

15 minutes ago, Dopey said:

so Phillips is the only reason on the dline that we had one of the best defenses this past year?!? I call bull on that one. He had a really good year, but he didn't do it on his own. I'm not here to say pay him or don't. Just calling bs on your "the whole dline except for Jordan sucks" comments. 😄

 

Give me 1 D-linemen that played better than Jordan this past year.

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19 minutes ago, costrovs said:

 

That's why I was asking, I wasn't sure. 

 

Give me 1 D-linemen that played better than Jordan this past year.

There's a big difference between " who played better" and "they all sucked". Read my post again, if you need to. Trying to answer that question to someone who thought Phillips could replace Star is a waste of time. If you think he put the whole dline on his back, Dopey wants some of what you're smoking. Puff puff give...

 

Edited by Dopey

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Just now, Dopey said:

There's a big difference between " who played better" and "they all sucked". Read my post again, if you need to. Trying to answer that question to someone who thought Phillips could replace Star is a waste of time. If you think he put the whole dline on his back, Dopey wants some of what you're smoking. 

 

 

Well 1st off.... it's puff puff pass, not puff puff give...... 😉

 

2nd... Harry missed most of the year, so that Harry/Star rotation is incorrect.

 

3rd.... no one played better, and I didn't say they all suck. 

and no he didn't put the whole d-line on his back.

So you have Phillips/Oliver and Star/Harry. 

0-tech, 1-tech, 3-tech, tech-9, it shouldn't really matter(i'm talking 4-3) DT is a DT. DE is a DE. it shouldn't matter where you line up. This is the NFL, not pop warner or High School. You should be expected to play either or. Screw what the announcers or people call as 1-tech or 3-tech. I've seen them line up at all positions. Kyle Williams has lined up at 0, 1, 3 and 5. Bruce Smith has lined up at 0, 1, 3, 5 and 7. Kyle plays better as a DT. and Bruce plays better as a DE.

regardless of technique, DT is a DT. DE is a DE.

 

Jordan can't replace Star?

 

Where the lines of Hughes/Oliver/Jordan/Lawson never on the field together at all this year?(spoiler- they were)

 

I mean, doesn't Hughes/Oliver/Jordan/Lawson look like a better line than Hughes/Oliver/Star/Lawson or Hughes/Oliver/Harry/Lawson or Hughes/Jordan/Star/Lawson or Hughes/Jordan/Harry/Lawson? 

 

Harry went down early in the season so the jury is still  out on him, and Star cant do a damn thing. 

If Phillips can't replace Star, then Oliver can. It'll still be the same thing though. Jordan and Oliver on the field at the same time.

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8 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

The sack numbers were great, but even if PFF is a joke, there has to be SOME merit in their analysis no?

 

PFF gives Jordan Phillips an overall grade of 51.8, which ranks 153rd out of 197 defensive linemen in the league. His pass-rush grade of 60.5 ranks 94th among defensive linemen. Of Phillips' 583 snaps in 2019, 362 were in pass rush (putting him 40th among D-linemen) and 218 were against the run, according to PFF. He played 52.4% of the Bills' defensive snaps.


his run defense was a major liability. 

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I liked Phillips this year. I don't have the time to watch film like some of you but I'm inclined to believe what most are saying. 

 

It's kind of disappointing because I thought he was making a bigger impact off of just watching the games live. I didnt identify the significant run deficiencies.

 

I have a strange feeling that the Bills are going to pay him though.

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The bills defensive unit was basically universally regarded as a top 5 unit.... I have no clue how a unit that finished so high across the board in basically any major stat didn’t have a single guy ranked highly by PFF. These guys said there were 18 corners better than Tre white. How can anyone take that seriously?.... EIGHTEEN
 

I used to, at the very least, value PFF as a small tool in the toolbox when it came to ranking players performance. Nowadays I have a hard time taking them seriously at all. 

Edited by Stank_Nasty
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1 hour ago, costrovs said:

 

Well 1st off.... it's puff puff pass, not puff puff give...... 😉

 

2nd... Harry missed most of the year, so that Harry/Star rotation is incorrect.

 

3rd.... no one played better, and I didn't say they all suck. 

and no he didn't put the whole d-line on his back.

So you have Phillips/Oliver and Star/Harry. 

0-tech, 1-tech, 3-tech, tech-9, it shouldn't really matter(i'm talking 4-3) DT is a DT. DE is a DE. it shouldn't matter where you line up. This is the NFL, not pop warner or High School. You should be expected to play either or. Screw what the announcers or people call as 1-tech or 3-tech. I've seen them line up at all positions. Kyle Williams has lined up at 0, 1, 3 and 5. Bruce Smith has lined up at 0, 1, 3, 5 and 7. Kyle plays better as a DT. and Bruce plays better as a DE.

regardless of technique, DT is a DT. DE is a DE.

 

Jordan can't replace Star?

 

Where the lines of Hughes/Oliver/Jordan/Lawson never on the field together at all this year?(spoiler- they were)

 

I mean, doesn't Hughes/Oliver/Jordan/Lawson look like a better line than Hughes/Oliver/Star/Lawson or Hughes/Oliver/Harry/Lawson or Hughes/Jordan/Star/Lawson or Hughes/Jordan/Harry/Lawson? 

 

Harry went down early in the season so the jury is still  out on him, and Star cant do a damn thing. 

If Phillips can't replace Star, then Oliver can. It'll still be the same thing though. Jordan and Oliver on the field at the same time.

That’s exactly it. He can only play 3tech and can’t replace anyone really. Oliver looks like he can do it all. He’s the most valuable DT on the roster. Phillips is a nice piece but nonessential...can’t push the pocket, can’t play the 1spot, loses against the run and against double teams. He’s a penetrating one gapper and will be valued as such by the FO.

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I've often wondered whether PFF works with a lower starting baseline when grading Bills players....you know they always seem lower than the team's actual strength is.

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9 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

The sack numbers were great, but even if PFF is a joke, there has to be SOME merit in their analysis no?

 

PFF gives Jordan Phillips an overall grade of 51.8, which ranks 153rd out of 197 defensive linemen in the league. His pass-rush grade of 60.5 ranks 94th among defensive linemen. Of Phillips' 583 snaps in 2019, 362 were in pass rush (putting him 40th among D-linemen) and 218 were against the run, according to PFF. He played 52.4% of the Bills' defensive snaps.


Hopefully we get a good deal then.

 

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8 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

Hes a rotational player and should be paid as one.  If he gets offered starter type money then let him go.  

Ditto. let's move on.

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1 hour ago, costrovs said:

 

Well 1st off.... it's puff puff pass, not puff puff give...... 😉

 

2nd... Harry missed most of the year, so that Harry/Star rotation is incorrect.

 

3rd.... no one played better, and I didn't say they all suck. 

and no he didn't put the whole d-line on his back.

So you have Phillips/Oliver and Star/Harry. 

0-tech, 1-tech, 3-tech, tech-9, it shouldn't really matter(i'm talking 4-3) DT is a DT. DE is a DE. it shouldn't matter where you line up. This is the NFL, not pop warner or High School. You should be expected to play either or. Screw what the announcers or people call as 1-tech or 3-tech. I've seen them line up at all positions. Kyle Williams has lined up at 0, 1, 3 and 5. Bruce Smith has lined up at 0, 1, 3, 5 and 7. Kyle plays better as a DT. and Bruce plays better as a DE.

regardless of technique, DT is a DT. DE is a DE.

 

Jordan can't replace Star?

 

Where the lines of Hughes/Oliver/Jordan/Lawson never on the field together at all this year?(spoiler- they were)

 

I mean, doesn't Hughes/Oliver/Jordan/Lawson look like a better line than Hughes/Oliver/Star/Lawson or Hughes/Oliver/Harry/Lawson or Hughes/Jordan/Star/Lawson or Hughes/Jordan/Harry/Lawson? 

 

Harry went down early in the season so the jury is still  out on him, and Star cant do a damn thing. 

If Phillips can't replace Star, then Oliver can. It'll still be the same thing though. Jordan and Oliver on the field at the same time.

1st It can be pass too but I said give. Look at the video. Not a good start. 😉

2nd I never mentioned Harry. Strike 2 😉

3rd replacing Star isn't as easy as you think. Jordan can't do Star's job. Not even close. Neither can Oliver. There's a reason Star is a starter and not Jordan. As for your spoiler alert, it's called rotation. 😉

I'm not even gonna bother with the rest. Wanna know why? Jordan couldn't even crack the starting line-up next year with Star, Harry and Oliver, so he ain't getting paid here. Puff puff give.

 

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8 hours ago, sven233 said:

The eyeball test says he was a pretty good pass rusher, but while he did make a lot of plays on his own, some of the sack production he had was the direct result of someone else pushing the play and Phillips finishing it up.  Also, in my opinion, for someone his size, he was pretty bad against the run. 

 

I know it's not a popular opinion around here, but I am not re-signing him for anything more than 7.5 at the very most.  I think he is a 6-7 million dollar player.  I think there may be a team or 2 that looks at the sack numbers and overpays him.  I don't want to be that team, especially with Horrible Harry coming back.  He was our best lineman when he was playing early.

Teams are more sophisticated in their analysis of potential free agents than they used to be.  PFF generates a lot of raw data but doesn't do a great job of analyzing the factors leading to a specific outcome.  Teams study the players real role in specific plays and they understand the assignments and the actual execution by the player.  In other posts, it was observed that some of Phillips' sacks were the result of the play being pushed into his lap by another player.  I share some of that opinion.  IMHO he is not one of the top DT's in the league and is nothing more than a good rotational role player.  The only way he gets a big contract is if one of the traditionally bad teams (like the JESTS) gets overly enamored with him.  I'm sure Beane knows what he is dealing with and he will let him walk before overpaying.

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7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'd rather keep both, but it seems pretty clear from what he said that if Beane has to choose, it'll be Shaq

I think both Shaq and Phillips will find bigger paydays outside Buffalo. I'd like to retain both though. Rotation is a big part of this defense and these guys are perfect for that. 

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