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The Situation With Iran Goes Hot - Shots Fired


Hedge

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1 hour ago, CoudyBills said:

And now? 

 

Glad he acted presidential and addressed the nation. Not sure what to think, though, about him going to NATO for help (doesn't he hate NATO?) and claiming he killed 100% of ISIS.

 

I think to act like this is over and either side won is stupid. Nobody wins or loses in wars except for those that die - sadly there is more bloodshed to come.

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1 hour ago, Hedge said:

If true, this has taken on an entirely new life:

 

Who they are being arrested BY is the real question. Within the IRGC? Ordered by Khamenei?

 

I have to believe it was condoned by Khamenei.  And if so, why is it being done?

 

Maybe Soleimani was planning on seizing control in Iran?

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37 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Glad he acted presidential and addressed the nation. Not sure what to think, though, about him going to NATO for help (doesn't he hate NATO?) and claiming he killed 100% of ISIS.

 

I think to act like this is over and either side won is stupid. Nobody wins or loses in wars except for those that die - sadly there is more bloodshed to come.

 

He hates NATO?   That's a new spin.

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1 minute ago, Gary Busey said:

 

You're right - I don't think he hates NATO, though he has disparaged the alliance many times. Odd for him to use it in his speech.

 

IMO

 

He's disparaged the contributions vs benefits of member nations, not the idea of NATO.   He's right on those accounts.

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2 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

You're right - I don't think he hates NATO, though he has disparaged the alliance many times. Odd for him to use it in his speech.

 

IMO


I don’t find it odd. Now that other countries are ponying up more of the operating costs, it’s time to make it work for us and get a return on our investment. Another genius stroke IMO.

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1 hour ago, Hedge said:

 

 

 

 

 

I saw a short video last night purportedly showing a missile being intercepted and blown up by our military. I could be wrong though and it was just something that happened on a Kentucky gun range.

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1 hour ago, Hedge said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's about the failure rate I would have expected - little better, actually.  Like I said last night, Iran has a significant aerospace capability, but little opportunity to test.  

 

And Western failure rates are better...but not by much.  10% or so. depending on the platform and weapon.  As I recall, the Minuteman III's reliability rate was only around 70%.  

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23 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:

 

Yesterday was a bad day for Iran.  Missed killing Americans and killed 180 or so others. 

 

 +50ish more during the stampede.

 

 

 

 

 

And a conflicting opinion from the "Pentagon":

 

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

But at least there is consensus on the Congressional briefing...

 

 

  

Edited by Hedge
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26 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:

 

Yesterday was a bad day for Iran.  Missed killing Americans and killed 180 or so others. 

All part of the plan....experiences like yesterday and this week should have them begging for US delegation to fly over and start teaching them western democracy any minute now

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19 minutes ago, Hedge said:

 

 

 

 

  

 

Those missiles are not that accurate.  Most have a CEP on the order of a thousand meters or so.  If they Iranians "chose" to aim at dirt, they would have missed and hit something of value.  

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26 minutes ago, TH3 said:

All part of the plan....experiences like yesterday and this week should have them begging for US delegation to fly over and start teaching them western democracy any minute now

 

They don't need lessons. Iran is very western -- and its government could almost overnight switch when they dump the Mullahs. 

 

Proving again how little you know in your rush to make a joke. 

 

Shame. 

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One thing that's missed in all this: missiles are an arms-length response that is not typical of Iranian methods in general, nor Quds operations in particular.  Quds is roughly equivalent to JSOC, which isn't a "bomb them from miles away" force.  They're a "get in to knife-fighting range and kill the target" force.

 

This isn't over.  The missile attack was just a quick face-saving response so Iran didn't look weak in the short-term.

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16 hours ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Do you hate dogs?

 

Dogs are the best species on this planet.

What I am not fond of, however, is thinking about the leaders of our nations war fighters needing emotional support animals when NOTHING happened.

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1 minute ago, Hedge said:

 

Dogs are the best species on this planet.

What I am not found of, however, is thinking about the leaders of our nations war fighters needing emotional support animals when NOTHING happened.

 

Guessing it was for the hundreds of support staff that work at the pentagon rather than our leaders but maybe Pence got a pet in.

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12 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

One thing that's missed in all this: missiles are an arms-length response that is not typical of Iranian methods in general, nor Quds operations in particular.  Quds is roughly equivalent to JSOC, which isn't a "bomb them from miles away" force.  They're a "get in to knife-fighting range and kill the target" force.

 

This isn't over.  The missile attack was just a quick face-saving response so Iran didn't look weak in the short-term.


Or, their use of it is a sign of how degraded their asymmetrical warfare capabilities have become. 

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2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:
14 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

One thing that's missed in all this: missiles are an arms-length response that is not typical of Iranian methods in general, nor Quds operations in particular.  Quds is roughly equivalent to JSOC, which isn't a "bomb them from miles away" force.  They're a "get in to knife-fighting range and kill the target" force.

 

This isn't over.  The missile attack was just a quick face-saving response so Iran didn't look weak in the short-term.


Or, their use of it is a sign of how degraded their asymmetrical warfare capabilities have become. 

 

thumb_why-not-both-i-feel-liketransgende

 

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19 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:


Or, their use of it is a sign of how degraded their asymmetrical warfare capabilities have become. 

 

Probably not.  Asymmetrical warfare still takes time for planning and staff work, particularly when it's as well-organized as the IRGC is.  

 

And the nature of asymmetrical warfare is that it doesn't really degrade.  As long as you maintain any sort of threat, you have a viable capability.  And Quds force is still a very viable threat - they demonstrated that last week, and killing Soleimani didn't degrade that at all.

8 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

"Not to attack US targets."  Or "Not to attack US targets yet?" 

 

And does that mean targets IN the US?  Or international targets representing the US?  Does that include Doha?  Destroyers docked in Aden?

 

It's a rather ambiguous statement by Pence.   

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Oh boy, Lindsey is all hot and bothered again. 

 

In response to criticism from Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) over the classified Iran briefing by Trump administration officials Wednesday, Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) said he believed they were “overreacting” and suggested their defiance was “empowering the enemy.”

His comments came after Lee had disparaged the briefing, calling it “probably the worst briefing I’ve seen at least on a military issue in the nine years I’ve served in the United States Senate.”

Lee and Paul, who are the most libertarian-leaning Republicans in the Senate, both indicated after the briefing that they would support the Democratic-led war powers resolution, which seeks to limit President Trump’s military actions regarding Iran.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-live-updates/2020/01/08/c835c218-31a0-11ea-9313-6cba89b1b9fb_story.html#link-3FBPYR7YLI3JTC7TAQOYSMGRRY

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There's only one way to deal with the miscreants in the Middle East. Deal out of strength and don't negotiate any deals that can't be monitored completely and make sure there are steep penalties for any violations. The Muslim religion forgives lying to infidels so recognize that and be prepared to deal with it. Remember they only respect strength and aren't interested in listening to any James Taylor peace songs. 

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3 hours ago, DC Tom said:

One thing that's missed in all this: missiles are an arms-length response that is not typical of Iranian methods in general, nor Quds operations in particular.  Quds is roughly equivalent to JSOC, which isn't a "bomb them from miles away" force.  They're a "get in to knife-fighting range and kill the target" force.

 

This isn't over.  The missile attack was just a quick face-saving response so Iran didn't look weak in the short-term.

 

We'll see.

 

Time is not on Iran's side. If they struck back quickly they could claim the moral high ground. With each passing day after mutual declarations of non-escalation that balance shifts. A significant act of provocation weeks or months from now would be perceived much differently, and likely turn public support in favor of military action against Iran.

 

Nothing rallies Americans to war like a Pearl Harbor.

 

For all their tough talk, I think the mullahs are scared of President Trump just like they were of Reagan. He portrays himself as one who doesn't want a fight but will bring the pain if challenged. Whether he'd follow through remains to be seen, but he's certainly given them reason to fear he would. 

 

The only reason I think you might be right is because there are some indications that they're losing their grip on power and nothing will rally the people to their side like a war with the great Satan.

 

That said, they'd have to wonder how much of a country they'd have left to rule over when the dust settles, assuming they survived the fight. I don't think it's a risk they're inclined to take.

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54 minutes ago, Rob's House said:

 

We'll see.

 

Time is not on Iran's side. If they struck back quickly they could claim the moral high ground. With each passing day after mutual declarations of non-escalation that balance shifts. A significant act of provocation weeks or months from now would be perceived much differently, and likely turn public support in favor of military action against Iran.

 

Nothing rallies Americans to war like a Pearl Harbor.

 

For all their tough talk, I think the mullahs are scared of President Trump just like they were of Reagan. He portrays himself as one who doesn't want a fight but will bring the pain if challenged. Whether he'd follow through remains to be seen, but he's certainly given them reason to fear he would. 

 

The only reason I think you might be right is because there are some indications that they're losing their grip on power and nothing will rally the people to their side like a war with the great Satan.

 

That said, they'd have to wonder how much of a country they'd have left to rule over when the dust settles, assuming they survived the fight. I don't think it's a risk they're inclined to take.

With the unrest already present in Iran we need not get into an all out war with Iran if/when they attack us. We can eliminate their air defenses and missile sites without a lot of civilian deaths. If that doesn't change their activities then their navy could be destroyed. Last resort would be their oil production. Preferably not so that we could preserve a way for Iran's people to recover when they inevitably regain their country. Whatever they do to us we do much more to them. It's what they'll understand.

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/its-missiles-did-little-damage-but-iran-has-more-potent-weapons/ar-BBYLgnN?li=BBnb7Kz

 

The latest cycle of attacks between the United States and Iran started with a rocket attack that killed an American contractor in Iraq. The United States retaliated with a strike on an Iranian-backed militia, beginning a cycle of escalation.

 

WTF?

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