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Week 14 - Ravens (-6.5) at Bills Over/Under 44

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SF at Ravens in the rain is more luck then ability  jmo .  I do give Lamar a lot of credit

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Baltimore is probably the best team in the NFL, and there's no doubt that this is a tough game.  But 5.5 point dogs win about a third of the time, so it's silly to write this off as a sure loss.  It's pretty easy to see how we get a win.  Our defense does enough to at least slow down / contain their offense, holding them to 20-24 points, and our offense continues their upward trajectory that we've seen the past several weeks to score 24-27 or so.  We'll need to avoid turnovers and we'll probably need to take the ball away a time or two.  That's probably not how the game will go and if I were a betting man I wouldn't bet on the Bills straight-up, but it's not like it requires a flight of fancy to imagine them pulling out a tight win.  On a good day, with everybody bringing their A-game, there's nothing outlandish about any of this.

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So the totally-not-at-all-made-up DVOA statistic has the 9-3 Buffalo Bills ranked in the top half of NFL teams this week, coming in at...#11

 

LAST week, the 7-3 Bills jumped from, um...25th to...errr...14th...after beating the 18th ranked Broncos. In week 12. Make sense? Not even a little? Good, because THIS week the 8-3 Bills, after absolutely housing the DVOA-ranked 5th best team in the league(6-5 at the time Dallas Cowboys) to get to 9-3, jumped a whole...um...3 spots from 14 to 11, while the 6-6 Cowboys are still somehow ranked at, wow, 7th, because...DVOA.

 

To recap: the Bills two weeks ago were the 25th best team in the league. After beating the 18th ranked team, they jumped 11 spots in one week. This is after having completed 65% of an NFL season's worth of statistics (oh, and 'tape' I guess, they claim to watch film at FO lol somehow I doubt it) to justify their 25th spot ranking for the Bills. Then THIS week, after crushing the Cowboys who have somehow been a top5 DVOA team all season despite getting blown out by the Jets of all teams, the Bills leapt up a whole 3!! spots in DVOA...which still lands them behind the aforementioned Cowboys who are still somehow ranked 7th. Playing .500 ball. While DVOA maintains that the 9-3 Bills are not quiiiiiiiiite a top 10 team yet. 

 

TL;DR- DVOA scrambles to explain itself, unsuccessfully

 

 

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29 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

Baltimore is probably the best team in the NFL, and there's no doubt that this is a tough game.  But 5.5 point dogs win about a third of the time, so it's silly to write this off as a sure loss.  It's pretty easy to see how we get a win.  Our defense does enough to at least slow down / contain their offense, holding them to 20-24 points, and our offense continues their upward trajectory that we've seen the past several weeks to score 24-27 or so.  We'll need to avoid turnovers and we'll probably need to take the ball away a time or two.  That's probably not how the game will go and if I were a betting man I wouldn't bet on the Bills straight-up, but it's not like it requires a flight of fancy to imagine them pulling out a tight win.  On a good day, with everybody bringing their A-game, there's nothing outlandish about any of this.

I agree with this but also think McDermott is such a good coach he might be able to come up with a plan that makes Lamar much less of threat. If Lamar I'd not so dangerous then I think we will win.

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50 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So the totally-not-at-all-made-up DVOA statistic has the 9-3 Buffalo Bills ranked in the top half of NFL teams this week, coming in at...#11

 

LAST week, the 7-3 Bills jumped from, um...25th to...errr...14th...after beating the 18th ranked Broncos. In week 12. Make sense? Not even a little? Good, because THIS week the 8-3 Bills, after absolutely housing the DVOA-ranked 5th best team in the league(6-5 at the time Dallas Cowboys) to get to 9-3, jumped a whole...um...3 spots from 14 to 11, while the 6-6 Cowboys are still somehow ranked at, wow, 7th, because...DVOA.

 

To recap: the Bills two weeks ago were the 25th best team in the league. After beating the 18th ranked team, they jumped 11 spots in one week. This is after having completed 65% of an NFL season's worth of statistics (oh, and 'tape' I guess, they claim to watch film at FO lol somehow I doubt it) to justify their 25th spot ranking for the Bills. Then THIS week, after crushing the Cowboys who have somehow been a top5 DVOA team all season despite getting blown out by the Jets of all teams, the Bills leapt up a whole 3!! spots in DVOA...which still lands them behind the aforementioned Cowboys who are still somehow ranked 7th. Playing .500 ball. While DVOA maintains that the 9-3 Bills are not quiiiiiiiiite a top 10 team yet. 

 

TL;DR- DVOA scrambles to explain itself, unsuccessfully

 

 

 

Agreed. Garbage pseudo-stat.

 

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it’s all about that DVOA!!!

 

You guys and gals pumped for DVOA-Bowl 54 in a couple months?

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1 hour ago, BillsFanSD said:

Baltimore is probably the best team in the NFL, and there's no doubt that this is a tough game.  But 5.5 point dogs win about a third of the time, so it's silly to write this off as a sure loss.  It's pretty easy to see how we get a win.  Our defense does enough to at least slow down / contain their offense, holding them to 20-24 points, and our offense continues their upward trajectory that we've seen the past several weeks to score 24-27 or so.  We'll need to avoid turnovers and we'll probably need to take the ball away a time or two.  That's probably not how the game will go and if I were a betting man I wouldn't bet on the Bills straight-up, but it's not like it requires a flight of fancy to imagine them pulling out a tight win.  On a good day, with everybody bringing their A-game, there's nothing outlandish about any of this.

The Bills have the QB and talent to beat anyone finally. 
It will come down to execution and game plan. Coaches will need to make in game adjustments. I like Allen’s ability over Jackson’s ability to make mental adjustments in game. 
should be a good game.

Edited by atlbillsfan1975
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2 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

The Bills have the QB and talent to beat anyone finally. 
It will come down to execution and game plan. Coaches will need to make in game adjustments. I like Allen’s ability of Jackson’s ability to make mental adjustments in game. 
should be a good game.

The Bills match up well with these kind of teams. If they avoid turnovers, they can take em.

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10 hours ago, PaattMaann said:

Focus on stopping Ingram smashing the gaps. MUST play assignment football. MUST funnel Lamar to the sideline. MUST take away the middle of the field in the passing game and force Jackson to throw to the sidelines. Easier said than done. 

 

On offense we have to have long drives and score TDs. They can be run on, and they can also be passed on if the run is successful. Josh is going to have to be his own weapon.

 

A Kick or Punt return would go a long way to flipping the score / momentum. 

 

Simply put, we need to have a great game in all three phases. It can be done, no one is unbeatable. But this is the best team in football in my opinion, and its going to take a perfect game to come out with the win. Im not expecting it though. 

 

I'm thinking this might be a game of two equally talented teams.  We'll see them trade punches. I'm meaning figuratively not literarily as I think both teams are sparked by the respective sophmore QBs that were labelled as the true 1st round talents. The fact that both are surprisingly showing measurable growth as NFL Qbs.  I'm  thinking we may get a deja vu game  ala the no punt game against san fran wasn't it?   We all know Josh and Jim spent some time going over film of glory bills days.  I fully expect to see a good game between 2 equally talented teams.  Then again, I don't the culture of the Ravens but  I do know the Bills culture and know it's one that has our guys playing as a TEAM and with enough talent and intelligence on both offense and defense to make you pay if you underestimate them.  I do not see the Ravens overwhelming our defense, but I won't count out that I expect them to be a bit surprised by Josh's  play.  I'm  expecting to see a bit more in solid qb play and one or two "how did he manage to avoid getting sacked before he launched that amazing throw."  Followed by a "well they have to respect his arm so that leaves it wide open for him to scramble for a xx yd td."  Oh and this team has shown it can take a first punch and then bob and weave  while getting in good jabs until they see the KO opening.  It's  just that we are capable of delivering the KO play on both offense or defense.  We do have some potential star game-altering ST players but they haven't yet unequivocally  and maybe unexpectedly pulled off the figurative  nail in the coffin to seal a Bills win.  I would like to see that growth in this last stretch of games. That could propel them into the playoffs on a proverbial hot streak that just smokes everything in its path.  And our team just happens to have that smoke and if we grill up some raven we got the sauce as well.  Buffalo Bills Quest = Raven BBQ.  Yep I'm expecting a very entertaining well played game both sides making some plays I just think the Bills will make more eye-opening/jaw dropping plays that will be fun to watch by fans tuning in after seeing Josh play on Thankgiving.   Given there is the potential of an unexpected AFCE division winner for the first time since 2008....  yea that would make the Bills/Pats game must see for any football fan -- plenty of fans would love to see Brady crushed and kicked to the curb.  Yeah, he has almost every qb record known to man. He arrogantly challenged father time believing he would win as easily as he has won in the nfl.  Unfortunately tommy father time laughs at a thrown penalty flag and is unhampered as he sucks away your youthful vitality leaving you a bitter old pruned up  shell.  So win that the Bills should wear a commemorative 50th season sabres patch with light sabres in blue and gold as the crossed sabres. That will kill the death star grip of New England and every team not NE will be freed from their tyranny.  Yea I'm expecting an entertaining  game. 

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3 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

at least the 8 straight weeks of "must win" games have stopped 🙄


nope not yet. 
 

to get the 1 seed every game is a must win. 

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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

TL;DR- DVOA scrambles to explain itself, unsuccessfully

 

 

 

I found this interesting. It makes me question the whole metric.

 

 

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Just now, HappyDays said:

 

I found this interesting. It makes me question the whole metric.

 

 

I have NEVER been a fan of DVOA. This goes back years for me. 'Subjective metrics' are imo a contradiction in terms...it purports to accurately compare through analysis variables that are basically unquantifiable in sum, too many moving parts, too much info to synthesize. They simply can't measure what they claim. And they won't admit when they're wrong.

 

There is no justifying, at all, a 14-place jump in the space of two weeks that the Bills have undergone, not by SOS or opponents or anything that could even remotely be considered relevant. They're just scrambling and honestly...proprietary just means they don't have to show you their work (and mistakes). It's a badly flawed system imo.

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13 hours ago, Ned Flanders said:

ESPN app now has Ravens listed as -5.5.


I saw this....doesnt a shortened line mean the money is coming in on Buffalo?

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Yeh that's what it means and better news is right now 2/3 of wagers placed are on BALT, means sharp money is liking BUF and points right now.

 

And I agree lol

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2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

it’s all about that DVOA!!!

 

You guys and gals pumped for DVOA-Bowl 54 in a couple months?

 
That’s a funny acronym for “QB’s Total 300-Yard Games.”

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John Harbaugh presser today. 

 

Really different vibe from McDermott's. 

 

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/video/john-harbaugh-that-was-an-all-around-winning-performance

 

Opening for questions: "Whaddayouhave?"

Cut off a reporter starting to say something about "elusive for the franchise": "I don't speak in those terms, that word you use.  I don't use that word.  It's a weird word to me.  I answered the question.  It's been answered."  Shifts his eyes to someone else, next question.   I didn't hear the question but it evoked a long spiel about "that's all noise, that's a distraction" and "I don't think about that.  I don't have time to think about that.  It's a great point for you to write about."  Then when he's talking about his team and how it played-just relaxed, his voice goes down in pitch, his gestures smooth out.  Asked about shots Lamar took "I don't care, I'm not gettin' into it, our job is to protect our QB, officials job is to officiate the game" 

 

Asked to talk about Hayden Hurst: "List the contributions he made (that's not quite what he was asked).  I have a list, I don't have it on me" (pantomining looking for a list).  I think he had a great game, he got a game ball" (then again, he's really relaxed, eloquent, gave long answers about the tight end room).

 

Asked about bringing someone up..."I'm going to give you the wait and see.  I know what we're going to do, but I'm going to say wait and see, if that's all right with you"

 

Listen and decide for yourself, but I would say 1) overall he has his press corps whipped into line and McDermott should listen and take some notes 2) I have a "this guy has really got it going on, he's Master of All He Surveys" feeling about Harbaugh.   This is a guy who feels he's "got it going on" and has a lot of confidence in his coordinators, his coaches, and his players.

 

He mentioned key plays on special teams and a guy that almost blocked a punt.  ST may be the key to the game, and I have to say I don't give us the advantage.

 

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Our Special Teams will have a huge game!!
 

Fakes and long returns. 

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11 minutes ago, london_bills said:

Tucker has made 22 of 23 FGs for the Ravens this season. 

 

Their ST play has been solid.  Not just FG but close to blocked punts, pinning the other team deep...Their ST got them that win over SF or else very close to it.

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