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4th and 4: Hauschka 53 Yard attempt decision - simple analytics


IgotBILLStopay
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1 minute ago, Steptide said:

I kinda wish the Browns kicker had made that extra point after their first td. Woulda made it 20-16 on that last drive and forced the bills to play for the td

In that case, the score before their touchdown would have been 16-13 and they would not have the urgency to go for a TD on their drive and settled for a FG making it 16-16.:)

 

Basically I am giving you another reason for wishing their kicker had made that XP.

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1 hour ago, ALLEN1QB said:

I have no problem with them trying to kick the field goal what I have a problem with is the stupid play on 3rd down why not try to get him a little closer instead they throw a low percentage pass that we know Josh Allen cannot hit. Right now Buffalo should have one loss and that would be the one to the Eagles the other to the coaches lost with stupid play calls throughout the game

 

No problem with the Kick on fourth but that third down play. I still can't get over how wide open Beasley was. 

 

https://twitter.com/YardsPerPass/status/1193694627225882631?s=20

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54 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

According to this post (which uses R:)), the probability of making a 53 yarder with the game on the line is likely even lower than the assumed 30%.

 

https://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2013/01/chances-of-making-an-nfl-field-goal.html

No one says we cant learn from the experience of our opponents.

You are correct, just not under this coach

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As mentioned above, the most egregious error was on 3rd down.  Hausch has not been good this year and wasn't good in this game, but he has certainly made many from 50+ in his career and he has made several clutch kicks.   We have not been effective on 4th down, so statistics aside, I think our chances of making the FG were about as good as getting the 1st down (and then working for a FG or TD).  But the play call and clock management on 3rd and 4, and then the ensuing chaos was terrible.  Did you see the camera shot of Hausch on the sidelines trying to trot onto the field, but he was held back, then they decided to go for the FG after all?  That chaotic sequence may have messed with his mind a little bit.  

 

Also, did anyone else notice the so-so hold?  I'm not an expert, but I think the laces are supposed to be 180 degrees from the kicker's foot when spun correctly.  In this case, the spin only put the laces 90 degrees from the kicker's foot.

Edited by msw2112
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Once they reached the 35 yard line, a 53 yard FG should've been their last choice. They wasted time, they wasted downs, they wasted an opportunity to gain more yardage and win the game, or a better chance of taking the game to OT.

 

Sometimes players suck ... In Cleveland the decision making sucked.

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1 hour ago, Steptide said:

I kinda wish the Browns kicker had made that extra point after their first td. Woulda made it 20-16 on that last drive and forced the bills to play for the td

 

just a sec there, maybe they would have kicked anyway and hoped for the onside success...

 

 

49 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

Once they reached the 35 yard line, a 53 yard FG should've been their last choice. They wasted time, they wasted downs, they wasted an opportunity to gain more yardage and win the game, or a better chance of taking the game to OT.

 

Sometimes players suck ... In Cleveland the decision making sucked.

 

end of thread

 

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6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

The whole last series was a cluster bad word.  It was brutal to watch.  So stupid to blame the kicker.  It’s like the SB where they just settled for the Norwood kick.  

 

asking a fairly decent kicker to make a vital FG from the far end of his comfort zone isn't wise

 

 

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2 hours ago, ALLEN1QB said:

I have no problem with them trying to kick the field goal what I have a problem with is the stupid play on 3rd down why not try to get him a little closer instead they throw a low percentage pass that we know Josh Allen cannot hit. Right now Buffalo should have one loss and that would be the one to the Eagles the other to the coaches lost with stupid play calls throughout the game

 

I don’t have any problem with that pass. If Josh hits that there is a good chance we get a TD. Josh does a good job throwing back shoulder so I have no problem with that throw with the game on the line. It worked against the Jets week 1, so you should have a problem with that call too. Either way Haushka needs to be reliable when we need him most. 

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Inexcusable sequence there at the end of the game.

 

Who's it on.......... HC? OC? QB?

 

Whomever it was, they ROBBED defeat from the jaws of victory with that sequence.

 

If I was the owner of the team, I want an explanation from all three I mentioned to make sure that they are better prepared for the next time it happens.

 

Teams lose games. I totally get that and can live with that, but you have a MAJOR hand in the way you lost the game, it's inexcusable.

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

The whole last series was a cluster bad word.  It was brutal to watch.  So stupid to blame the kicker.  It’s like the SB where they just settled for the Norwood kick.  

 

Settled for the Norwood kick?

 

They had to go 60 yards with 2:10 on the clock and NO timeouts just to give Norwood a shot. Against a great D.

 

Find something else to compare to yesterday's disaster.

Edited by njbuff
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3 hours ago, ALLEN1QB said:

I have no problem with them trying to kick the field goal what I have a problem with is the stupid play on 3rd down why not try to get him a little closer instead they throw a low percentage pass that we know Josh Allen cannot hit. Right now Buffalo should have one loss and that would be the one to the Eagles the other to the coaches lost with stupid play calls throughout the game

I think this might come down to QB awareness of the situation or lack there of...

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5 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Inexcusable sequence there at the end of the game.

 

Who's it on.......... HC? OC? QB?

 

Whomever it was, they ROBBED defeat from the jaws of victory with that sequence.

 

If I was the owner of the team, I want an explanation from all three I mentioned to make sure that they are better prepared for the next time it happens.

 

Teams lose games. I totally get that and can live with that, but you have a MAJOR hand in the way you lost the game, it's inexcusable.

 

Settled for the Norwood kick?

 

They had to go 60 yards with 2:10 on the clock and NO timeouts just to give Norwood a shot. Against a great D.

 

Find something else to compare to yesterday's disaster.

 

they ran the ball to get to the Norwood spot...

 

they settled 100% on the Norwood spot

 

it MIGHT have worked, like a draw to an inside straight

 

or Bobby Cox calling that Otis Nixon bunt for a base hit on the last out of the 1992 World Series... like.... WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

---------------------------

if my slow nephew tried this against me during a game of Paydirt! or a computer sim, i'd in all good conscience give him another chance and try the last minute with REAL football thinking

 

 

Edited by row_33
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Just now, row_33 said:

 

they ran the ball to get to the Norwood spot...

 

they settled 100% on the Norwood spot

 

it MIGHT have worked, like a draw to an inside straight

 

 

They had no time and no time outs.

 

Yesterday they had plenty of time with a time out.

 

BIG BIG difference.

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3 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

they ran the ball to get to the Norwood spot...

 

they settled 100% on the Norwood spot

 

it MIGHT have worked, like a draw to an inside straight

 

or Bobby Cox calling that Otis Nixon bunt for a base hit on the last out of the 1992 World Series... like.... WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

---------------------------

if my slow nephew tried this against me during a game of Paydirt! or a computer sim, i'd in all good conscience give him another chance and try the last minute with REAL football thinking

 

 

If Al Edwards made the block he was supposed to make, Thomas would have gotten to the 15 yard line. He whiffed, and the rest is history.

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