Bills' pass : run ratio

[Kelly the Dog]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Correct. Especially on 1st down.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/

 

 

 

One of the reasons passing is successful on first is because it's a run down. If teams did it all the time, like this suggests, those numbers would go down quickly. I bet the best average for a runner is third and long. 

[vincec]

1 minute ago, Shortchaz said:

I’m guessing there is some long-term strategy at play here. Work on the passing game now (weather/young Qb/new receivers) so that it’s better when we need it. 

They only have 2 RBs on the active roster: Gore and Yeldon. They don't want Gore to get more than 20 carries per game and I don't think they really trust Yeldon to run the ball so they are obviously planning to pass a lot.

[JMF2006]

We have a 90 year old running back thrust into a starting role

 

If you want #20 around in week 17 you need to limit his carries.

 

Yeldons inability to consistently secure the ball isn't helping matters.

 

I like the WR reverses and draws to help old Franky out.

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

This is the correct answer. Why anyone would want to take a step back is beyond me. You need to pass to win in this league.

Back to the safetyand comfort of the known versus the unknown?

[Simon]

1 hour ago, mattynh said:

I disagree.  The bills run the ball a high percentage of the time when you compare to the nfl.  

 

Not today they weren't.

There's not a single team in the league with a pass:run ratio of 3:1 and probably only a tiny handful that are over 2:1

 

38 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

This is the correct answer. Why anyone would want to take a step back is beyond me. You need to pass to win in this league.

I'm not calling for them to take the air out of the ball.

Just for Daboll to be a "little" more willing to think strategically about the whole team concept of managing a game.

[34-78-83]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

Thanks man, didn't see the game today.

35 dropbacks looks a little better than 40.

Plus if you listened closely in some of the coach interviews of late, Allen likely didn't actually have a concussion, just was in the protocol.

[Spiderweb]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Agreed, but to achieve that he needs more depth at running back.  He’s a bit afraid to overload Gore and who else does he got?

 

Very true. Yeldon scares me Everytime he touches the ball that he's going to turn it over. We need Singletary back and possibly another RB instead of Yeldon.

[Happy]

I would guess if Devin Singletary was playing today, the run:pass ratio would have been a little closer to even.  I don't think Daboll completely trusts Yeldon and as stated earlier, the staff didn't want to overload Frank Gore.  Daboll's E-P offense seems to favor the pass by design, or so I suspect.

[Simon]

1 minute ago, 34-78-83 said:

Plus if you listened closely in some of the coach interviews of late, Allen likely didn't actually have a concussion, just was in the protocol.

 

Seriously? That would be stunning to me.

Between the initial hit and his head bouncing off the turf, I assumed it was just a foregone conclusion.

[34-78-83]

1 minute ago, Simon said:

 

Seriously? That would be stunning to me.

Between the initial hit and his head bouncing off the turf, I assumed it was just a foregone conclusion.

yeah even after the game during one of the questions, McD answered that he would say Josh had a normal type practice week throwing the ball as opposed to not throwing in team drills as many assumed was part of his "limited" status and "in the protocol" status.

[fansince88]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

Thanks man, didn't see the game today.

35 dropbacks looks a little better than 40.

Do you have a way to catch the game? Perhas on rerun on NFL Network? I recomend it. It cleaned out my clogged arteries with all the extra pressure.  LOL. Yes, a few of the runs were not designed.  2 were B sneeks. A couple were scrambles. One was a nice slide when there was noplace to throw the ball, although someone took a cheap shot on his back anyway. A couple were designed run. Last run was to seal the game by keeping the clock moving. Whatch the gamw if you can. You will be impressed with Duke.

[Matt_In_NH]

47 minutes ago, Simon said:

Not today they weren't.

There's not a single team in the league with a pass:run ratio of 3:1 and probably only a tiny handful that are over 2:1

 

I'm not calling for them to take the air out of the ball.

Just for Daboll to be a "little" more willing to think strategically about the whole team concept of managing a game.

 

Every week there are examples of 3:1 or 2:1 for portions of a game....like you are quoting.   Week to week gameplans are developed based on the game and opponent.   I get it that you did not like the game plan.   I liked it not because it was super successful but because they Have a plan and are executing it.  In the big picture they want to win superbowls not just make the playoffs.  I believe You have to be able to be a pass first team or a run first team based on the matchup.  The nfl is no longer a smash mouth run and atop the run type league.  It is more strategy based on matchup league.   Sometimes you need to smash and sometimes you need finesse.  The thought they need to get “more conservative” is not something I could get behind.   They need to be aggressive at the right times and work to reduce the errors by the qb.  Just my opinion 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, 34-78-83 said:

yeah even after the game during one of the questions, McD answered that he would say Josh had a normal type practice week throwing the ball as opposed to not throwing in team drills as many assumed was part of his "limited" status and "in the protocol" status.

 

That doesn't mean that he didn't have a concussion, just that he resolved to the point where he could do football activities by Weds.

He had 2 days

 

It's varied from person to person.

 

Again - the team does not choose to put players in the protocol like "protective custody" it's all based upon testing and neurologist exam.

[billrooter]

3 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

Definitely need to be running more, in this game and in general. Allen is still too green to be Aaron Rodgers (who hasnt done much without a run game either)

 

 

 

 

  I agree but I am shocked they didn't bring in a third rb when Singletary was out, Yeldon has had some receptions but hardly carried it. I honestly kept thinking it was going going to bite them in the ass, but they are 4-1. Singletary they said was close last week. did I miss something anyone know if he had a setback? To pretty much totally rely on a 36 year old running back the Bills were playing with fire.

[Bookie Man]

Definitely need to pound the rock more. More jet sweeps. 3 a game at least. Yeldon actually hits the hole pretty hard.

[Hebert19]

3 hours ago, TroutDog said:

I believe when Singletary comes back you’ll see more running. 

This.   Frank can't carry it 30 times a game now. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

44 minutes ago, billrooter said:

  I agree but I am shocked they didn't bring in a third rb when Singletary was out, Yeldon has had some receptions but hardly carried it. I honestly kept thinking it was going going to bite them in the ass, but they are 4-1. Singletary they said was close last week. did I miss something anyone know if he had a setback? To pretty much totally rely on a 36 year old running back the Bills were playing with fire.

 

Hamstrings tend to linger so they probably wanted to give it another week with bye this week.

 

 

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

5 hours ago, Simon said:

Before that final drive when they went to clock-killing mode, I think the Bills pass:run ration was close to 3 : 1.

Brian Daboll really needs to recognize what kind of defense he's got complimenting him and start approaching his play-calling duties a little less tactically and a little more strategically.

There's no reason your 23yr old wet-behind-the-ears QB needs to be dropping back 40 times in a game in which you haven't played from behind for a single second. I think Coach needs to trust his defense and take pressure off his OLine by calling games a bit more conservatively.

 

 

 

I see it both ways. 

 

As nice as it is that the Bills are winning right now, they probably aren't winning a Super Bowl this year. Even if they make the playoffs, they need crawl before they walk. The Bills under JA have zero playoff experience.

 

Perhaps part of the pass-happy mentality is to focus more on getting Josh the reps and experience now in the passing game, so that he is better for it down the road, and sooner rather than later as a result (as frustrating as it may be at times, because it isn't always working). Lets face it, he still has a long way to go before we consider him a prolific passer. He's improving in certain aspects, and aside from last week, the Bills have been able to overcome whatever shortcomings the Bills have had in the passing game. 

 

Maybe part of the thought process is that, because they have such a good defense, they can afford to be aggressive in their offensive play calling. Either it's going to work and the Bills will start pulling away, or it doesn't work and the defense will bail them out, and 4th quarter Josh will step up and do just enough...WHILE he's still learning. 

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

5 hours ago, Lurker said:

Teams are over-playing the run, daring Allen to be the difference maker.   

 

I like that Daboll has enough confidence in Josh to say, "OK, have it your way.  We'll beat you through the air"

 

I like that approach against all teams except for NE. With how well our dedense fares against their offense, just manage the game and run the ball. Keep it close, limit giveaways, and you give yourself a real shot to win. Granted, the Bills did pretty much the opposite last week and still had a good chance in the end, but perhaps without those giveaways, they play with a lead at home againt them. 

Edited October 7, 2019 by Drunken Pygmy Goat

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Analytics shows it is almost never a better choice to run instead of pass based on many factors.

I don't know about analytics, but I don't think it's as simple as some posters say.  

 

There is an offensive game plan.  It's developed by Daboll, but it's certainly approved by McDermott.   Daboll doesn't create it in a vacuum.   That game plan obviously was based on the notion that the Bills could throw the ball effectively against the Titans.  So, sure, we'd like to see the clock running on that second last drive, but the Bills thought they could complete passes, and if they'd completed any, the clock WOULD have been running.   It's a head in the sand approach to say we're just going to run it three times to keep the clock running and then punt.  That's really conservative with five or six minutes left in the game.