Reader Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 I guess I read 538 a lot. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mykidsdad Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Good read. Thx for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 That was a good read, thanks. Very encouraging to see the "advanced stats" backing up what we're seeing regarding Josh's improvement as a passer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 No respect. No respect at all. With an Elo QB rating of 161, Allen isn’t great, but he’s not terrible either. In fact, he’s almost precisely average — just 4 rating points below the typical NFL starter — and by Buffalo standards, that’s not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 "Of course, the Bills have also played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL so far." And yet, no mention that the Pats have done the same? Jiba jiba article... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 I am constantly a guy who focuses on what could be better tomorrow, rather than what we did well today. Wanted to take this thread to make sure I am on the record as a fan (but worried somtimes) of Josh Allen. If we can see more of the below quote. We will be definitely be "good enough" in year two of his development. Allen has been more accurate this year, cutting his rate of “poor throws” (according to Pro-Football-Reference.com) from a league-worst 24 percent in 2018 to just 6 percent — which ranks fourth-best this year. Some of that can be attributed to a dose of shorter throws,1 but the NFL’s Next Gen Stats estimate that Allen is completing passes at a rate 0.9 percentage points higher than expected this season, even after adjusting for the depth of the pass and other particulars, while he checked in at 7.7 percentage points below expected last season (second-worst in the league). 11 minutes ago, Lurker said: "Of course, the Bills have also played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL so far." And yet, no mention that the Pats have done the same? Jiba jiba article... You left out the rest of the paragraph. Don't get your panties in a bunch everytime somebody isn't 100% positive about Buffalo. They gave Buffalo a better chance to win than the betting line. Tom Brady has a long history of winning, and Buffalo/McDermott a history of losing. Patriots are doing what they do, and the Bills have done what they normally do. I thought this write up was relative positive and fair. So let’s be honest: A lot of signs point to the Bills’ magical season-opening run coming to a screeching halt against New England this week. (Our model gives the Pats a 65 percent chance of winning, despite being on the road, and that’s conservative compared with the probability implied by the Vegas line.) But we also give Buffalo a 70 percent chance to make the playoffs — and for a franchise with only one playoff game under its belt since 1999, that’s as good an excuse for a raucous parking-lot celebration as anything else. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Numbers, probabilities, metrics etc etc. Sure, data is cool in a lot of ways but it’s also cold and boring. The real magic of the NFL ( and sports in general) lies in its ability to surprise us. Dramatic changes of momentum, incredible plays and surprising outcomes are what keep us watching. Through all the analysis, this game has potential for those things to occur. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Say When... Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: Numbers, probabilities, metrics etc etc. Sure, data is cool in a lot of ways but it’s also cold and boring. The real magic of the NFL ( and sports in general) lies in its ability to surprise us. Dramatic changes of momentum, incredible plays and surprising outcomes are what keep us watching. Through all the analysis, this game has potential for those things to occur. 1000x this^^^ the beauty of the game itself when played on the field with humans vs an algorithm executed over and over on a computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: Numbers, probabilities, metrics etc etc. Sure, data is cool in a lot of ways but it’s also cold and boring. The real magic of the NFL ( and sports in general) lies in its ability to surprise us. Dramatic changes of momentum, incredible plays and surprising outcomes are what keep us watching. Through all the analysis, this game has potential for those things to occur. Isn't it PFF whose new rankings have Mahomes as the 6th rated QB? When they can suit up an algorithm and put it out on the field, I'll start trusting stats over my eyeballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 The article seems very well balanced. The Bills have been erratic and low scoring, have yet to put a full game together, and have had to come back from the edge twice in three games, and both times it was self-inflicted. And all three games were against mediocre teams. Until they can put a full four quarter game together and put up more points than they've been doing, and do it against good teams, I don't see how they can be regarded as anything but average. But I do think their trajectory is up and they will be well above average by the time Christmas rolls around. A win this Sunday will go a long way towards accelerating that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reader Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 28 minutes ago, yungmack said: The article seems very well balanced. The Bills have been erratic and low scoring, have yet to put a full game together, and have had to come back from the edge twice in three games, and both times it was self-inflicted. And all three games were against mediocre teams. Until they can put a full four quarter game together and put up more points than they've been doing, and do it against good teams, I don't see how they can be regarded as anything but average. But I do think their trajectory is up and they will be well above average by the time Christmas rolls around. A win this Sunday will go a long way towards accelerating that. Yeah, I agree and a reason I posted the link. I appreciate the caveat that Allen is not playing like Jim Kelly, but that he is playing significantly better than Trent Edwards also. I just wish they used the caveat that he is playing worse than Fitz, but at that time Fitz was still Fitzmagic instead of Fitztragic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket94 Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said: Numbers, probabilities, metrics etc etc. Sure, data is cool in a lot of ways but it’s also cold and boring. The real magic of the NFL ( and sports in general) lies in its ability to surprise us. Dramatic changes of momentum, incredible plays and surprising outcomes are what keep us watching. Through all the analysis, this game has potential for those things to occur. Absolutely. Especially this unpredictable Bills team. The time is becoming as good as any to win an improbable game. Edited September 25, 2019 by Rocket94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo44 Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Wins are a statistic, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 2 hours ago, yungmack said: Isn't it PFF whose new rankings have Mahomes as the 6th rated QB? When they can suit up an algorithm and put it out on the field, I'll start trusting stats over my eyeballs. Any ranking that doesn’t have Mahommes number 1 is just flat out wrong. That guy has been unstoppable this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideNine Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 3 hours ago, Doc Brown said: No respect. No respect at all. With an Elo QB rating of 161, Allen isn’t great, but he’s not terrible either. In fact, he’s almost precisely average — just 4 rating points below the typical NFL starter — and by Buffalo standards, that’s not too shabby. I will take this. Not too shabby indeed. We have a QB who did not start a full season last year, raw as they come, who's performance some said would never be on par with typical NFL QBs, who's stats are now comparable with typical NFL QBs. Jury is still out, but that is a trend in the right direction. We just have to take the long view and see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TroutDog Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 3 hours ago, Doc Brown said: No respect. No respect at all. With an Elo QB rating of 161, Allen isn’t great, but he’s not terrible either. In fact, he’s almost precisely average — just 4 rating points below the typical NFL starter — and by Buffalo standards, that’s not too shabby. They talked about his improvement specifically. Those are simply the numbers as of right now. Personally, I though it was a well crafted article understanding that it’s a metrics based author. He/she isn’t wrong. They’re just not adding in the ‘eye test’ that we all see...it’s not their job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 4 hours ago, Doc Brown said: No respect. No respect at all. With an Elo QB rating of 161, Allen isn’t great, but he’s not terrible either. In fact, he’s almost precisely average — just 4 rating points below the typical NFL starter — and by Buffalo standards, that’s not too shabby. My reaction to that conclusion is that we're still talking about a QB who went to college in Wyoming and had far less college preparation for the NFL than almost any other QB in his draft class. He has made significant strides from the start of his rookie campaign, and every reason to think he will continue on a steep learning curve for a while. None of that guarantees that he will ultimately be a "Franchise Quarterback," but we have seen nothing to indicate he can't be one and continue to learn in areas where his game had been weaker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNICE Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Calculated NE opponents average pregame Elo at 1447, since the article left that out in favor of only quoting NE high number. not a whole lot different than the Bills opponents at 1415 but I do admit I didn’t look up every team. Just sick of no one wanting to mention how easy of a schedule the Putz have had. Go Bills!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 interesting article. A fair assessment, with some editorial comments just for the entertainment value. Okay, just win on Sunday at it goes away--mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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