64.1% = Josh Allen's completion percentage through 3 games

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

Hey like the plays he makes with his feet and the 2nd one you showed of him standing in there and getting crushed as he got rid of the ball. But that 2nd one was not a smart play. If the defender gets there a tiny bit earlier, it’s a pick 6. And.... he had Dawson Knox wide open on that play. Probably for a very long game or a TD. 

Yeah, I know, but the point is, he is successful on many more of those kinds of plays than not. As far as Knox being open. If you watch the clip again, especially the second view from behind Allen, you will see Knox with his back turned and not even into his break yet as Allen is getting hit. Not sure if Allen could have gotten that ball out to where Knox was breaking to.

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

Hey like the plays he makes with his feet and the 2nd one you showed of him standing in there and getting crushed as he got rid of the ball. But that 2nd one was not a smart play. If the defender gets there a tiny bit earlier, it’s a pick 6. And.... he had Dawson Knox wide open on that play. Probably for a very long game or a TD. 

????  I don't think the player can get there any earlier cause that throw went as soon as possible (he didnt even try to get a deflection).  The LB came in on JA basically untouched so the whole play was was very bang bang.  Dawson Knox was not open until the ball was thrown.  The defender that is the closest to Beasley is coming from out of the picture in hte broadcast view and is effectively covering Knox as he goes vertical before his break.  That was a great play to get some yards when your OL lets you down and I don't think there could be anywhere else you could go with the ball (watch the replay from behind).

 

This completion also set up the 2nd & 4, I believe, for the toss to Knox to get in the red zone.  Not sure Knox is as open on 2nd & 10.  

[mrags]

56 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

????  I don't think the player can get there any earlier cause that throw went as soon as possible (he didnt even try to get a deflection).  The LB came in on JA basically untouched so the whole play was was very bang bang.  Dawson Knox was not open until the ball was thrown.  The defender that is the closest to Beasley is coming from out of the picture in hte broadcast view and is effectively covering Knox as he goes vertical before his break.  That was a great play to get some yards when your OL lets you down and I don't think there could be anywhere else you could go with the ball (watch the replay from behind).

 

This completion also set up the 2nd & 4, I believe, for the toss to Knox to get in the red zone.  Not sure Knox is as open on 2nd & 10.  

You can keep saying this all you want but the fact is, if the defense plays it perfectly and sets it up so that there isn’t “anywhere else to go” but the defense knows that and accounts for that and makes a jump to that spot as Allen is throwing it, it’s a pick 6. It was a very unsafe throw. I’m glad he completed the pass. But it probably shouldn’t have been. 

 

And watch it from every angle all you want. If he throws it over the head of everyone so that Knox or nobody else can get to it, it’s a TD. Doesn’t matter if Knox made his break yet or not. He knows where he’s going to be. Get it to a spot in that situation. 

 

You can’t be critical of Allen and say he shouldn’t have made a low % of success pass that could have had huge reward. While in the same breath criticize someone of being critical for taking the super low % chance of reward with also having a low % chance of success. 

[Pokebball]

1 minute ago, mrags said:

You can keep saying this all you want but the fact is, if the defense plays it perfectly and sets it up so that there isn’t “anywhere else to go” but the defense knows that and accounts for that and makes a jump to that spot as Allen is throwing it, it’s a pick 6. It was a very unsafe throw. I’m glad he completed the pass. But it probably shouldn’t have been. 

 

And watch it from every angle all you want. If he throws it over the head of everyone so that Knox or nobody else can get to it, it’s a TD. Doesn’t matter if Knox made his break yet or not. He knows where he’s going to be. Get it to a spot in that situation. 

 

You can’t be critical of Allen and say he shouldn’t have made a low % of success pass that could have had huge reward. While in the same breath criticize someone of being critical for taking the super low % chance of reward with also having a low % chance of success. 

There is a balance here.  It isn't one or the other.  Josh throws pretty hard which makes it more difficult for defenders to actually make the catch/interception.  They might get their hand in to tip the pass, but to actually make the interception is harder.  We've got to use Josh's skill to our advantage.  Bill's WR and TEs should be at the receiving end of a jugs machine every day.  Use Josh's arm strength to our advantage, don't remove it.

[mrags]

Just now, Pokebball said:

There is a balance here.  It isn't one or the other.  Josh throws pretty hard which makes it more difficult for defenders to actually make the catch/interception.  They might get their hand in to tip the pass, but to actually make the interception is harder.  We've got to use Josh's skill to our advantage.  Bill's WR and TEs should be at the receiving end of a jugs machine every day.  Use Josh's arm strength to our advantage, don't remove it.

Ironically, you are against him throwing it downfield in the same exact play to knox for a much higher reward play that could have been a TD. 

 

Gotcha

[Not at the table Karlos]

I’m really encouraged by Allen’s progress but he still has a ways to go. I can’t remember a QB that I’m confident will convert a third down since Jim Kelly. 

 

If he can start anticipating throws or throwing wrs open this offense will be very very good.  

 

There were a few plays where the receiver was “nfl open” with Allen looking right at them and he didn’t pull the trigger. One was a comeback route by zay in the endzone. Allen was looking right at him. Zay was open for touchdown as soon as he turned around. Allen went to throw but pulled it down and ended up running for like 7 yards. 

 

There was another one later where 3 receivers were running open from left to right and an easy throw leading any of them would have been a big gain or td and he kinda did a half pump fake and ran for a couple yards. 

 

Theyre showing his run plays from the endzone and you can see wrs open with time to throw it to them but he just doesn’t for some reason. If he can start anticipating throws his TDs will go up a lot. 

[Pokebball]

2 hours ago, mrags said:

Ironically, you are against him throwing it downfield in the same exact play to knox for a much higher reward play that could have been a TD. 

 

Gotcha

I'm pretty sure...no, I'm positive you misunderstood my post.

Edited September 23, 2019 by Pokebball

[ColoradoBills]

4 hours ago, zow2 said:

Yesterday, the clock seemed off in Josh's head.  Maybe Cinci had him fooled on several plays, but he can't be running backwards like that.  Last season, he would take off too early, but it was effective.  He had huge chunk runs off those scrambles.  This year he's hanging in the pocket as long as possible.  It's helped his completion %, but eventually he's succumbing to the pressure.  His big arm won't bail him out every time.

 

He's still a pup.  I would think he was pretty amped with it being the home opener trying to go 3-0.

Every game is a big learning experience for him.  Hope he learned a few things yesterday.

 

The deep ball overthrows seem to reflect that too.

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

You can keep saying this all you want but the fact is, if the defense plays it perfectly and sets it up so that there isn’t “anywhere else to go” but the defense knows that and accounts for that and makes a jump to that spot as Allen is throwing it, it’s a pick 6. It was a very unsafe throw. I’m glad he completed the pass. But it probably shouldn’t have been. 

 

And watch it from every angle all you want. If he throws it over the head of everyone so that Knox or nobody else can get to it, it’s a TD. Doesn’t matter if Knox made his break yet or not. He knows where he’s going to be. Get it to a spot in that situation. 

 

You can’t be critical of Allen and say he shouldn’t have made a low % of success pass that could have had huge reward. While in the same breath criticize someone of being critical for taking the super low % chance of reward with also having a low % chance of success. 

I actually don't really see it as the defense setting it up for "no where else to go" because there is a break down in the OL so that the blitz isnt picked up.  This causes the "no where else to go" rather that it being set up.  Thus, the secondary is definitely not expecting the situation as the stem of the Knox route is initially being guarded and they aren't pouncing on Beasley's route.  No defender was close to making a play on the ball as no one even tried for a deflection.  I thought that was a great example of a hot read by Allen which is something he has struggled with.  

 

On the Knox route, I think youre being ridiculous.  Knox has not cleared the first level of defender by the time Allen is winding up (again why the throw to Beasley ends up being open).  If he just throws it to a spot, the defenders (1st and 2nd level probably) would probably beat Knox to the spot. 

 

Should he throw the corner to Knox if he has more time? Hell Yes!  Did he throw a corner to Knox on the very next play? Hell Yes!  This play was a break down in OL play that Allen read and got yards out of with out danger imo.  Confused why all the noise on a good play.

 

 

Edit: It was not the next play but the next possession that he hit Knox.  This was the series before.  I don't think it changes my conclusions on this play being a smart play to get yards on a break down.

 

Edited September 23, 2019 by YattaOkasan

[Seven-N-Nine]

19 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

He's still a pup.

 

So was Tom Brady when he won his first SB.

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said:

 

So was Tom Brady when he won his first SB.

 

Yes he was and he was still learning.

Brady didn't fall out of the womb the goat.

[Doc]

53 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said:

So was Tom Brady when he won his first SB.

 

Yeah but Belichick was a veteran in the art of cheating, so...

[mrags]

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

I actually don't really see it as the defense setting it up for "no where else to go" because there is a break down in the OL so that the blitz isnt picked up.  This causes the "no where else to go" rather that it being set up.  Thus, the secondary is definitely not expecting the situation as the stem of the Knox route is initially being guarded and they aren't pouncing on Beasley's route.  No defender was close to making a play on the ball as no one even tried for a deflection.  I thought that was a great example of a hot read by Allen which is something he has struggled with.  

 

On the Knox route, I think youre being ridiculous.  Knox has not cleared the first level of defender by the time Allen is winding up (again why the throw to Beasley ends up being open).  If he just throws it to a spot, the defenders (1st and 2nd level probably) would probably beat Knox to the spot. 

 

Should he throw the corner to Knox if he has more time? Hell Yes!  Did he throw a corner to Knox on the very next play? Hell Yes!  This play was a break down in OL play that Allen read and got yards out of with out danger imo.  Confused why all the noise on a good play.

 

 

Edit: It was not the next play but the next possession that he hit Knox.  This was the series before.  I don't think it changes my conclusions on this play being a smart play to get yards on a break down.

 

I can’t believe you are arguing about this. Even that damn commentators said he barely got away with the ball not being intercepted. 

 

I’d post pics to show you since you are failing to show the proof or notice it yourself. But this stupid sight won’t allow me to link photos larger than your inability to understand football. If you watch the replay from the QBs view again, you’ll see Knox running away from the defender and with a clear pathway to the 40 yard line or so with nobody to stop him in that side of the field. 

 

Youll also see at about the same time that Beasley secures the ball, he is fighting off hands in his gut from the defender coming from the middle of the field. You do realize that the amount he missed the ball was fractions of a second, and in the NFL, fractions of a second could mean him jumping in front of the ball and taking it to the house. 

 

As it is, Allen was being hit when he threw it and didn’t have as much velocity on it. If he has just a tiny little bit more loft in the pass we’re talking about 6 the other way. 

 

Keep up up the good work. 

[Albwan]

    A little off topic, Francesca on WFAN,  after ripping JA  the last 2 weeks, calling him the most "inaccurate

QB on the planet" among other negative things... yesterday was talking up Daniel Jones...and said a sign

of a good QB is taking the team down the field for the score when it counts, doesn't care about how many

passes he threw or missed...man, I never realized how much of a hypocrite Mike is.

[TroutDog]

I view Josh as more similar to Jim Kelly than Favre. JK was a turnover machine during his first couple of years with the Bills. The throws over the middle on the final drive that ended up as INT’s drove me bonkers. 

 

Josh has the same LB mentality and the insane arm. He will learn as he progresses. 

 

I love Josh and wouldn’t want any other QB leading this team moving forward. He gets ‘us’ and he’s a threat on multiple levels. 

 

GO BILLS!

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[John Adams]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

This will be a good test week for sure. 

[GreggTX]

On 9/23/2019 at 5:17 AM, John Adams said:

 

I don't know. The one to Jones, as has been mentioned, as one where he couldn't throw when he wanted because he was moving, so he had to deliver it late. That would have been hard to complete. The bomb to Foster was right on target in stride and the safety made a nice leaping play to get his hands on it. 

 

The deep balls are coming but they will be fewer than last year because we lack bigger "fight for the ball" receivers. Delivering a pinpoint throw to a smurf 50 yards away is hard. 

 

We need what KB was supposed to give us. I could see us going any one of either an OT, CB or big WR in round 1 next year.

[whatdrought]

Not sure if there is a thread devoted to NFL.com's QB index, but this seemed like a good place: 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001059078/article/qb-index-week-4-deshaun-watson-rises-into-top-five-in-rankings

 

Allen got a good bump, but I really don't understand how he's below the midget in the dessert and Mayfield... 

[Warcodered]

12 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Not sure if there is a thread devoted to NFL.com's QB index, but this seemed like a good place: 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001059078/article/qb-index-week-4-deshaun-watson-rises-into-top-five-in-rankings

 

Allen got a good bump, but I really don't understand how he's below the midget in the dessert and Mayfield... 

Well maybe if Allen audibled into a draw on 4th and 9 he too could be rated 12th.

 

Also Jacoby Brissett really?