Do you think the Bills -Jets week 1 game loser will make the playoffs.

[billspro]

4 hours ago, msw2112 said:

No - my opinion only.  No statistical or factual basis.  Thus, a huge game and a must win for the Bills.

 

That is how I feel too. I still think we could have a good season if we lose, but our playoff chances will go way down if we lose a divisional game off the bat. 

1 hour ago, Another Fan said:

The one year we beat the Jets in an opener is the year we broke the drought.

 

I'm of the opinion there's a lot of pressure on the Bills here. 

 

It’s a huge game. This is the biggest Bills vs Jets game in the 2000’s.

[Marv's Neighbor]

Since a loss would count as a conference loss for either team, chances of playoffs would seem more remote.

[bills exile]

I think the Bills win 4 out of their first five games with this win!

[Gugny]

6 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

This is purely an opinion poll.  There is no right or wrong answer. 

 

So, exactly how long have you been soaking in water, Mr. Blanket?

[Dadonkadonk]

2 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Definitely games playoff teams should win.  At worst we split 

If they split they must beat Jets. A road loss to a NFC opponent won't hurt as much.  But I still contend if they can't beat these two teams and honestly the Bengals at home to go 3-0 then something has gone wrong.  If they win all three, they will go 10-6.  If they win all three then a few things have most likely happened - the defense is legit and Allen is no worse than a competent game manger or better.  If the defense can stop the run early and Allen does not turn the ball over, the Bills should wins these games by double digit points.  Force either of these teams to pass frequently and the defense will have multi-turnover games - maybe even a defensive score. 

Daboll needs to protect Allen and the new line with a strong run game and quick passes. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

If we can’t beat a terrible Jets team, we are no where near good enough to make the playoffs.

 

?‍♂️

 

Last year, after the horrible season opener at the Ravens, loss next week at Chargers, and then the poor showing at Green Bay, what would you have guessed the Bills record would be?  I personally would not have picked us for 6 wins at that point.  1-3, I thought maybe 3 or 4 wins.

 

The point is, the team picked itself up, dusted itself off, made adjustments, and kept fighting.

 

I'm hoping that the team, for sure, isn't putting too much pressure on itself that the first game is a "must win" or anything like that.

[Adam727]

I voted no.  I don't think the Jets are good enough to get into the playoffs this year, and if the Bills can't beat the Jets, I don't think the Bills will either.  The Bills have an easy start to their schedule.  Their best shot at making the playoffs is a fast 4-1 or 5-1 start.  

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Does the team that losses game 1, win the bills jets game in Buffalo? It’s kind of a strange question considering it’s not the only time we play them. Maybe a better question does the team that wins week 1 make it? Because I’m pretty sure most people feel like either team making it would be a surprise. Nationally anyway. 

[CommonCents]

It’s week one it’s not do or die. The Bills have a 9/11 new guys on offense. They will get better as the season moves on. Stats are nice but sometimes you need to look beyond that when making a single guess.

[formerlyofCtown]

I really don't know, but decided to be a homer for this one.

 

Too many ? to know.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

?‍♂️

 

Last year, after the horrible season opener at the Ravens, loss next week at Chargers, and then the poor showing at Green Bay, what would you have guessed the Bills record would be?  I personally would not have picked us for 6 wins at that point.  1-3, I thought maybe 3 or 4 wins.

 

The point is, the team picked itself up, dusted itself off, made adjustments, and kept fighting.

 

I'm hoping that the team, for sure, isn't putting too much pressure on itself that the first game is a "must win" or anything like that.

 

You are right! And, every year I am squarely within your camp. This is the first time that I have ever said the first game of the year is a must win.  I am sure that by the end of the season, I will look back and think it was a silly opinion.  But, at the moment, with our schedule, and all of our "progress," I continue to believe we need this one.  Not only to get to the playoffs, but to establish that we have actually improved. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

It's all about the STATS ....

 

Blockhead Darnold had "better stats" (because he played more games?)  and had 4 Wins.

First NFL pass was a PICK 6!!!

 

We all saw Josh improve. He has to stop making dumb rookie mistakes.  

Advantages IMO

Defense - Bills 

Offense - Bills  who isn't in love with the addition of Beasley alone?

Coaching - Bills 

Edited September 4, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan

[PlayoffsPlease]

It is possible the correct question is not "How important is to win week 1, but rather 'How important is to win when your win loss record = .500"

At the beginning of the season, it is known that 12/32 teams will make the playoffs.  So each teams chances are less than 50%.  

 

You can see in this chart that a team with a 0-0 record has about the same chance to make the playoffs as a team with a 3-3 record.  About 38%.  So you can go three and three without really hurting your chances of winning, but you still have only a 12/32 chance of making the playoffs.    After 3-3, it starts dipping significantly for teams with a .500 record. 

 

Similarly, if you follow the path of teams 1 game below .500, you can see that the historical success rate of making the playoffs falls significantly even at 0-1, down to 25%.  This stays pretty close to the same for the next set of 1 game below .500 records, 1-2 and 2-3 at 25% and 22%.  The critical point of demarcation seems to be week seven. If you end up 3-4, your chances have dropped to 19%. If you are 4-3, your chances historically have risen to 50%.  50% is certainly not a lock, but 19% is a steep uphill climb.  

Historically, if you reach week six with less than 3 wins, its is nearly a given that you will miss the playoffs.  So while it is technically true that "game one is only 1 of 16 games you will play",  It has a far bigger impact on the likely of making the playoffs than that sentence implies. 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

50 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

It's all about the STATS ....

Blockhead Darnold had "better stats" (because he played more games?)

 

No, not because Darnold played more games.  Because he did a somewhat better job playing QB.  Higher completion percentage, more YPG, threw for more TD and fewer INT per game.

 

It will come as no surprise to anyone who's been here a while, but I sliced and diced all last year's rookie QB stats. 

 

If you block Allen into "before injury" and "after injury" games, his improvement can be seen.  He had about the same completion percentage of 52%, but he threw for 34 more YPG, 1.5 more YPA, and had a TD/INT ratio >1 (1.14).  He also gained more YPG with his feet.

 

Of course, then one has to do the same "block" of last 6 games for Darnold.  One can see then that he also improved  to 60% completion (from 57%).  His YPG and YPA were about the same, but his TD/INT improved from 1.13 to 1.4.

For perspective, the difference between a guy with a 50% completion percentage and a 60% completion percentage, both throwing 30 passes per game, is 3 completions per game.

Between 57% and 60% is 1 additional completion per game.  Those seem like attainable improvements, and yet so many QB fail to make that change.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

48 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is possible the correct question is not "How important is to win week 1, but rather 'How important is to win when your win loss record = .500"

At the beginning of the season, it is known that 12/32 teams will make the playoffs.  So each teams chances are less than 50%.  

 

You can see in this chart that a team with a 0-0 record has about the same chance to make the playoffs as a team with a 3-3 record.  About 38%.  So you can go three and three without really hurting your chances of winning, but you still have only a 12/32 chance of making the playoffs.    After 3-3, it starts dipping significantly for teams with a .500 record. 

 

Similarly, if you follow the path of teams 1 game below .500, you can see that the historical success rate of making the playoffs falls significantly even at 0-1, down to 25%.  This stays pretty close to the same for the next set of 1 game below .500 records, 1-2 and 2-3 at 25% and 22%.  The critical point of demarcation seems to be week seven. If you end up 3-4, your chances have dropped to 19%. If you are 4-3, your chances historically have risen to 50%.  50% is certainly not a lock, but 19% is a steep uphill climb.  

Historically, if you reach week six with less than 3 wins, its is nearly a given that you will miss the playoffs.  So while it is technically true that "game one is only 1 of 16 games you will play",  It has a far bigger impact on the likely of making the playoffs than that sentence implies.

 

What jumps out at me from this chart is just how statistically improbable the Bills long playoff drought actually was.  For example, consider 2011 where after 5 games, the Bills record was 4-1.  Per your chart, that's a 77% chance of making the playoffs.  Consider 2008 where after 5 games, we were the same 4-1.    When you have a 23% chance of missing the playoffs in a bunch of different seasons, other things being equal the chance of missing the playoffs really ought to fall towards zip after a handful of years.

 

That says to me that a probability table like this probably lacks predictive value where football overall, and certainly where the Bills in particular, are concerned. 

We aren't looking at random events.  We're looking at events that are driven, probably, by the team's depth when injuries start taking a toll, and by their (for want of a better word) depth of scheme or coaching quality - after opponents get some game film on their tendencies, can other teams throttle them reliably or do the coaches successfully adjust?  For this reason, I suspect it's really only meaningful to look at W-L record as predictive of playoffs after about half the season.

 

So I don't buy it that a 0-1 team really has that low a probability of making the playoffs.  I mean, look at the Pats****** over the last 5 seasons.  They have made the playoffs all 5 of those seasons.  They have made the Superbowl 4 of those 5 seasons.  And they have lost their first game 2 of those 5 seasons.  So realistically, do they have 25% chance of making the playoffs the years they lost the first game?  Pffffft.

 

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What jumps out at me from this chart is just how statistically improbable the Bills long playoff drought actually was.  For example, consider 2011 where after 5 games, the Bills record was 4-1.  Per your chart, that's a 77% chance of making the playoffs.  Consider 2008 where after 5 games, we were the same 4-1.    When you have a 23% chance of missing the playoffs in a bunch of different seasons, other things being equal the chance of missing the playoffs really ought to fall towards zip after a handful of years.

 

That says to me that a probability table like this probably lacks predictive value where football overall, and certainly where the Bills in particular, are concerned. 

We aren't looking at random events.  We're looking at events that are driven, probably, by the team's depth when injuries start taking a toll, and by their (for want of a better word) depth of scheme or coaching quality - after opponents get some game film on their tendencies, can other teams throttle them reliably or do the coaches successfully adjust?  For this reason, I suspect it's really only meaningful to look at W-L record as predictive of playoffs after about half the season.

 

So I don't buy it that a 0-1 team really has that low a probability of making the playoffs.  I mean, look at the Pats****** over the last 5 seasons.  They have made the playoffs all 5 of those seasons.  They have made the Superbowl 4 of those 5 seasons.  And they have lost their first game 2 of those 5 seasons.  So realistically, do they have 25% chance of making the playoffs the years they lost the first game?  Pffffft.

 

Until, you hit zero, it means there is a historical chance.  77% chance of success means a 23% chance of failure.  The Bills failures are reflected in the chart, becuase it is historical data.   

Have you ever been to a horse track.  Under your theory since every odds on favorite doesn't win, there is no predictive value to the odds at all, which is  entirely incorrect. 

[Captain Hindsight]

To win the east you would have to go at 4-2 in the division. This is a must win IMO

[Royale with Cheese]

There's 15 games after that so no....

 

I would be pretty damn disappointed if we don't make the playoffs.  These are the QB's we are facing this year (unless injuries happen).

The ones in blue are legitimate starting NFL franchise QB's.  The others is decent to bad QB's.  Darnold, like Allen, is potential so kind of a "up in the air" right now. 

Our defense should be a top 5 unit again and should keep us in most games.

Just be average to above average Allen and we should be in pretty good shape.  

Should is the keyword.  

 

- Darnold twice

- Manning/Jones

- Dalton

- Marcia twice

- Mariota

- Fitz/Rosen 2x

- Wentz

- Keenum/Haskins

- Shirtless with a white tiger in front of a luxury car.

- Flacco

- Dak

- Can't throw but can run

- Big Ben

[iinii]

13 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Definitely games playoff teams should win.  At worst we split 

Agreed, with the first part. If we are to take the next step this is a game we win. The Jets aren’t making the playoffs if they win this one. We should make the playoffs and we should win this one. I know we have new faces on offense but a very good defense, stability and continuity. With or without the three points, I am taking the Bills.

[row_33]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What jumps out at me from this chart is just how statistically improbable the Bills long playoff drought actually was.  For example, consider 2011 where after 5 games, the Bills record was 4-1.  Per your chart, that's a 77% chance of making the playoffs.  Consider 2008 where after 5 games, we were the same 4-1.    When you have a 23% chance of missing the playoffs in a bunch of different seasons, other things being equal the chance of missing the playoffs really ought to fall towards zip after a handful of years.

 

That says to me that a probability table like this probably lacks predictive value where football overall, and certainly where the Bills in particular, are concerned. 

We aren't looking at random events.  We're looking at events that are driven, probably, by the team's depth when injuries start taking a toll, and by their (for want of a better word) depth of scheme or coaching quality - after opponents get some game film on their tendencies, can other teams throttle them reliably or do the coaches successfully adjust?  For this reason, I suspect it's really only meaningful to look at W-L record as predictive of playoffs after about half the season.

 

So I don't buy it that a 0-1 team really has that low a probability of making the playoffs.  I mean, look at the Pats****** over the last 5 seasons.  They have made the playoffs all 5 of those seasons.  They have made the Superbowl 4 of those 5 seasons.  And they have lost their first game 2 of those 5 seasons.  So realistically, do they have 25% chance of making the playoffs the years they lost the first game?  Pffffft.

 

 

the Pats have basically owned the division for a long time, leaving the other 3 to hope for a WC

 

 

 

---------------------

 

and again, the average number of repeat division titles is just over 3, the 7 non-Pats division gives us 2 repeaters on average

 

experts blindly pick 6-7 teams to repeat every year

 

not a repeat division winner in the Cowboys division since 2004....

 

thank goodness the Colts left the Bills division after 2001 or Peyton would have given the Bills another two losses every year

 

 

Edited September 4, 2019 by row_33