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YoloinOhio

Cian Fahey: Robert Foster looks like odd man out at WR, Teams should try to trade for him

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17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course, if Foster and Jones are both WORSE than Brown, that's a bad problem to have.   Seriously bad, because it means the Bills have exactly one wide out.  

 

The problem the Bills have at receiver is mediocrity.   They need players to emerge as real go-to guys.  People expected that of Brown, but it hasn't happened after a stellar rookie year.  Some people expected that of Jones, but he did very little in his second season, when he should have been breaking out.   (Yes, he had a nice play here and there, but EVERY guy good enough to be on an NFL roster will make a nice play here and there.  Look at McKenzie.)   Foster hasn't done it yet.   Williams is unknown.  Sills is a rookie.  

 

The Bills need guys to step up.   My prediction is that the Bills will end the season, if not start the season, with their top four receivers being Beasley, Brown, Foster and Williams.   Why?  Beasley is an excellent short- to mid-range guy, and the Bills are telling Allen to throw more of those passes.  He is the anchor for the receiving corps.  Brown, Foster and Williams are the three most talented receivers after Beasley.  Brown and Foster have the speed that allows them to get open short or long.   Williams was a four- or five-star recruit who needed time to get his head together, and his experience in Canada suggests he's done it.   Jones doesn't have the speed that Foster and Brown have and doesn't have the all-round talent, including hands and physicality, that Williams has.  

 

But as I said, the problem the Bills have is that they all could remain mediocre.  If that happens, improved oline or not, Allen will be running for his life again this season.

I'm concerned that Beasley's skill set isn't going to jive with Allen's. I think to take advantage of a guy like Beasley you need a QB to make quick, correct reads and accurate throws with touch. Not saying that Allen can't eventually do that but it certainly doesn't look like the strong point of his game right now.

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1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....and there goes by LAST pair of Depends out the door....dammit...........

freeballin makes you feel young again go for it Pops !

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Just now, 3rdand12 said:

freeballin makes you feel young again go for it Pops !

 

Living on the edge with potential zipper disaster

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course, if Foster and Jones are both WORSE than Brown, that's a bad problem to have.   Seriously bad, because it means the Bills have exactly one wide out.  

 

The problem the Bills have at receiver is mediocrity.   They need players to emerge as real go-to guys.  People expected that of Brown, but it hasn't happened after a stellar rookie year.  Some people expected that of Jones, but he did very little in his second season, when he should have been breaking out.   (Yes, he had a nice play here and there, but EVERY guy good enough to be on an NFL roster will make a nice play here and there.  Look at McKenzie.)   Foster hasn't done it yet.   Williams is unknown.  Sills is a rookie.  

 

The Bills need guys to step up.   My prediction is that the Bills will end the season, if not start the season, with their top four receivers being Beasley, Brown, Foster and Williams.   Why?  Beasley is an excellent short- to mid-range guy, and the Bills are telling Allen to throw more of those passes.  He is the anchor for the receiving corps.  Brown, Foster and Williams are the three most talented receivers after Beasley.  Brown and Foster have the speed that allows them to get open short or long.   Williams was a four- or five-star recruit who needed time to get his head together, and his experience in Canada suggests he's done it.   Jones doesn't have the speed that Foster and Brown have and doesn't have the all-round talent, including hands and physicality, that Williams has.  

 

But as I said, the problem the Bills have is that they all could remain mediocre.  If that happens, improved oline or not, Allen will be running for his life again this season.

 

It all starts with the OL.  If Josh is running for his life again, that means the OL additions were all for naught.  I don't see that happening.  And if the WR's don't pan out, I see them going run-heavy and drafting a WR early next year. 

 

But again, I see Brown and Foster as guys who move the CB's and S's off the LOS to allow Beasley to work underneath as well as open up the running game.  Brown and Foster can get open and even if they have the occasional drop, it's not like opposing teams can just ignore them.

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Josh Allens cannon arm and Fosters last 6 games in ‘18 tells me he isn’t going anywhere.

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Foster is not the odd man out, who is this guy?

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1 hour ago, vincec said:

I'm concerned that Beasley's skill set isn't going to jive with Allen's. I think to take advantage of a guy like Beasley you need a QB to make quick, correct reads and accurate throws with touch. Not saying that Allen can't eventually do that but it certainly doesn't look like the strong point of his game right now.

People say this sort of thing often, and i think it's incorrect.  

 

I mean, I agree that if you watch game film and chart throws, you may find that short, accurate throws with touch were not the strongest part of his game.   But I think that's easily correctable and will be corrected this season. 

 

I think it's all about reads, discipline and comfort.   Something you also will see watching the film is that Allen MADE a lot of short, accurate throws with touch.   Physically, he can do it.  He did it a lot last year.  He just didn't do it as often as he should.

 

He didn't do it as often as he should because he was rushed.  He came to the short receiver late and had to unload the ball in a hurry, resulting in some bad throws.  He just wasn't ready to throw.   Sometimes it was because he was rushed by the defense, and sometimes it was because he's an aggressive player and wants the big play.   I think that's going to change.   Why will it change?

 

Well first, this is something I believe but don't really know is true or McD's philosophy:  I think Belichick and other coaches have figured out that it's more important to have positive plays than big plays.  I think they teach their QBs to take the high percentage positive play, even if a decent longer play may be available but lower percentage.   I think the mantra is "no negative plays.  Make every play positive."   I think that they've figured out that a ball you can complete 90% of the time for 6 yards is better than one you can complete 50% of the time for 15 yards.  As I said, I don't know that, but I think it's true.  It's a conservative approach based on ball control and field position.   I think that philosophy is at the core of Brady's decision making.  And I think McDermott is a conservative coach.  So I think McDermott has been telling Allen for  seven months "take the short ball.  We will win if you take the short ball."

 

I think it's no accident that they signed Beasley.  They wanted a guy with a track record as a great route runner, a guy who will get open if they're in the right play against the right defense.  I think the Bills are telling Allen if they're in that play against that defense, Beasley will be open, throw it to him.  Don't think about it, just throw it to him.   They're telling him to take the deep ball only when the guy is one on one and has a speed or leverage advantage.   

 

A couple of months ago there was a report that Daboll had changed the QB's read structure.  I think it used to be outside in, or deep to short.  In any case, this year the QBs are reading short routes to long.  Why did they do that?   I think that at the beginning of each play they want Allen to recognize which short receivers will be open before he takes a look downfield, so that when he decides to come back to the short guy he'll already know who he's going to.   I think that will help Allen's footwork, because he'll come off the deep routes already turning to where the short guy is.  Once he practices it in OTAs and training camp, he will see the guy is always open, he'll get comfortable with it, and he'll make the throw the way he should. 

 

I also think Allen will just be more comfortable than he was last season.  He's had a year to get used to the speed and to understand what he's seeing on the field, and he's now getting a lot of reps and film work.  I mean, for a rookie he didn't look uncomfortable last season; he didn't get flustered often.  But the comments from the coaches and from him made it clear that he wasn't always seeing everything he should.   That's true for all young QBs, and the solution is reps and playing time.  He got a lot of the playing time last season, and now he's getting the reps.  I think we'll see a guy who's much more in command this season (and one who runs with the ball less frequently).   

 

I think all of that will combine to mean that Allen will throw the ball short more often and more effectively.  Beasley, Shady and Gore are going to be his security blankets, and with any luck a tight end safety valve will emerge, too.  

 

I understand there are all kinds of reasons it may not happen, but I'm expecting that Allen's completion percentage is going to go way up this year, into the low 60s.   I think his yards per attempt won't go down, because he'll still make all his mid-range and deep throws, but what were occasional incompletions on short balls are going to become completions.  I think the Bills will sustain drives much better as a result, because that short game is a ball-control game, and I think the Bills will begin to stretch defenses to cover the deep ball and the short ball.   Once that happens, the mid-range middle is going to open up, and Allen is deadly on those throws - he drills the ball into tight windows on those throws, and the windows are going to get bigger.  

 

All of that will flow from two things:  1.  Allen is not a fundamentally bad thrower on short balls; he just needs to be a better decision maker.  2.  Allen is coachable, and he will respond to what he's being told.  

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6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

People say this sort of thing often, and i think it's incorrect.  

 

I mean, I agree that if you watch game film and chart throws, you may find that short, accurate throws with touch were not the strongest part of his game.   But I think that's easily correctable and will be corrected this season. 

 

I think it's all about reads, discipline and comfort.   Something you also will see watching the film is that Allen MADE a lot of short, accurate throws with touch.   Physically, he can do it.  He did it a lot last year.  He just didn't do it as often as he should.

 

The majority of the short, accurate throws I recall were one read and release. Basically sticking it on a receiver on a short post. If he's going to mesh with Beasley, he'll have to get better at quickly making a decision as the play develops.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course, if Foster and Jones are both WORSE than Brown, that's a bad problem to have.   Seriously bad, because it means the Bills have exactly one wide out.  

 

The problem the Bills have at receiver is mediocrity.   They need players to emerge as real go-to guys.  People expected that of Brown, but it hasn't happened after a stellar rookie year.  Some people expected that of Jones, but he did very little in his second season, when he should have been breaking out.   (Yes, he had a nice play here and there, but EVERY guy good enough to be on an NFL roster will make a nice play here and there.  Look at McKenzie.)   Foster hasn't done it yet.   Williams is unknown.  Sills is a rookie. 

 

Hey Shaw, I gotta disagree with you. We all know that most WRs take 2-3 years to become impact players. OBJ is a curve pusher, and Ju Ju became a difference make in year 2. I'm not saying Jones is either of those guys, but he can be a 50-700-10 guy.

 

By year end when the bills cut the WR fat (literally with Benjamin) they had Jones who was top 2, and two guys who weren't even on the depth chart in TC. People were still arguing the virtues of Rod Streater....

 

Bills fans have wanted a QB who makes his WRs better for years. We started getting a glimpse of it in the last 6 games. The injury helped Allen. The game slowed down for him, and a lot of drops were cut.

 

Over the last 6 games Foster and Jones acquitted themselves well, and began developing a chemistry with a guy who was not even getting most first team reps in Training camp. Heck Foster and McKenzie weren't getting much time in their respective situations either.

 

Weeks 12-17 - keep in mind week 12 was a bit of a clunker for JA.

 

Jones 19 REC - 260 YDS - 5 TD - 13.6 AVG

Foster 22 REC - 406 YDS - 3 TD - 18.5 AVG

 

Normalized for a full season (including JA's 160 yd clunker, and carrying it through)

 

Jones 51 REC - 693 Yds - 13 TD - 13.7 AVG

Foster 59 REC - 1083 Yds - 9 TD - 18.5 AVG

 

You can't honestly tell me these two guys won't improve with a full TC in the top 4 WR rotation, and with a clear #1 QB getting the most reps. That will help IMO.

 

Secondly Zay had to catch passes from 4 Qbs through the year, Foster had to battle to make the team. As the 12-17 stretch unfolded the results improved.

 

Banjamin was with Buffalo in game 12 and 13. He factors in somewhat but went 3-52-0.

 

Week 12 was bad for JA against JAX from a passing perspective, but he found Foster for 2-94 and a 75 yd TD. Zay was blanked.

 

Week 13 Zay had a solid 4-67-2 TD, Foster went 1-27. Benjamin was cut after.

 

Week 14-17 we see a chemistry and strategy start to unfold. JA became a better passer in each game, and he had his possession guy (Jones) and his speed guy (Foster) and stated making better reads.

 

Week 14 Jones was 3-22, but Foster went over 100 with 7-104. The plan was to take out Zay without KB being there and Allen Connected with Foster. Same thing happened in Week 15 Jones went 1-22, and Foster again went over 100 4-108-2.

 

Week 16 teams started paying attention to Foster and Jones went 5-67-1 while Foster chipped in 4-52-0. Balance.

 

Week 17 more of the same, Foster was held to 4-21-1 while Jones had his best game as a pro 6-93-2.

 

It's happening, and now there is more depth and competition. Perfectly happy with Foster, Jones, Brown and Beasley at WR. 4 guys easily in the 600-1000 yards range. Makes it hard to defend.

Edited by RocCityRoller
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10 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

The majority of the short, accurate throws I recall were one read and release. Basically sticking it on a receiver on a short post. If he's going to mesh with Beasley, he'll have to get better at quickly making a decision as the play develops.

Allen is smart and he works hard, so I see no reason why he can't get the processing time sped up to make the quick decision throw, but until he actually does it, it's still in question.

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33 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Foster is not the odd man out, who is this guy?

 

Someone who got kicked out of ESPN (pretty low standards) for belly bumping strangers like his Irish friends.

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33 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

The majority of the short, accurate throws I recall were one read and release. Basically sticking it on a receiver on a short post. If he's going to mesh with Beasley, he'll have to get better at quickly making a decision as the play develops.

I agree.  That's one reason they've switched the QB reads, so that they look short first.  I think Allen is being told in the right defense, coming right out of the snap, go to Beasley.  The short ball, and how his safety valve guys are being covered, will be his first reads.   

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59 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Foster is not the odd man out, who is this guy?

 

Some idiot that thinks Tyrod is the bestest qb. 

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27 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Hey Shaw, I gotta disagree with you. We all know that most WRs take 2-3 years to become impact players. OBJ is a curve pusher, and Ju Ju became a difference make in year 2. I'm not saying Jones is either of those guys, but he can be a 50-700-10 guy.

 

By year end when the bills cut the WR fat (literally with Benjamin) they had Jones who was top 2, and two guys who weren't even on the depth chart in TC. People were still arguing the virtues of Rod Streater....

 

Bills fans have wanted a QB who makes his WRs better for years. We started getting a glimpse of it in the last 6 games. The injury helped Allen. The game slowed down for him, and a lot of drops were cut.

 

Over the last 6 games Foster and Jones acquitted themselves well, and began developing a chemistry with a guy who was not even getting most first team reps in Training camp. Heck Foster and McKenzie weren't getting much time in their respective situations either.

 

Weeks 12-17 - keep in mind week 12 was a bit of a clunker for JA.

 

Jones 19 REC - 260 YDS - 5 TD - 13.6 AVG

Foster 22 REC - 406 YDS - 3 TD - 18.5 AVG

 

Normalized for a full season (including JA's 160 yd clunker, and carrying it through)

 

Jones 51 REC - 693 Yds - 13 TD - 13.7 AVG

Foster 59 REC - 1083 Yds - 9 TD - 18.5 AVG

 

You can't honestly tell me these two guys won't improve with a full TC in the top 4 WR rotation, and with a clear #1 QB getting the most reps. That will help IMO.

 

Secondly Zay had to catch passes from 4 Qbs through the year, Foster had to battle to make the team. As the 12-17 stretch unfolded the results improved.

 

Banjamin was with Buffalo in game 12 and 13. He factors in somewhat but went 3-52-0.

 

Week 12 was bad for JA against JAX from a passing perspective, but he found Foster for 2-94 and a 75 yd TD. Zay was blanked.

 

Week 13 Zay had a solid 4-67-2 TD, Foster went 1-27. Benjamin was cut after.

 

Week 14-17 we see a chemistry and strategy start to unfold. JA became a better passer in each game, and he had his possession guy (Jones) and his speed guy (Foster) and stated making better reads.

 

Week 14 Jones was 3-22, but Foster went over 100 with 7-104. The plan was to take out Zay without KB being there and Allen Connected with Foster. Same thing happened in Week 15 Jones went 1-22, and Foster again went over 100 4-108-2.

 

Week 16 teams started paying attention to Foster and Jones went 5-67-1 while Foster chipped in 4-52-0. Balance.

 

Week 17 more of the same, Foster was held to 4-21-1 while Jones had his best game as a pro 6-93-2.

 

It's happening, and now there is more depth and competition. Perfectly happy with Foster, Jones, Brown and Beasley at WR. 4 guys easily in the 600-1000 yards range. Makes it hard to defend.

This is why I think Foster is taking a starting spot from Jones.   You've shown the numbers; Foster was easily as productive, probably more productive, than Jones, and Foster had a whole year's experience on him.  If I'm right about that, now Jones has to beat out Brown, and I'm not so sure he can do that.   If nothing else, Brown puts speed on the field that Jones can't match.  

 

I've been saying for months that once Zay falls out of the starting three, he's in trouble.  Now he's fighting with two other guys - probably Duke Williams and Andre Roberts, for snaps.   I think Williams has more natural talent, and Williams has more experience than people want to give him credit.  

 

Zay's had two years in the starting lineup and hasn't shown much.   I agree that it takes receivers two or three years, but I think he has to make a big jump this year or he'll be in trouble.  

 

 

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Zay Jones gets cut before Foster. 

To be fair he never said he would get cut. He’s saying he’s probably not going to be one of the top 3 in Buffalo (that’s where I disagree) and if he’s not another team might be willing to give value for him to be one of theirs. I still think they wouldn’t trade him.

Edited by YoloinOhio
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6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

To be fair he never said he would get cut. He’s saying he’s probably not going to be one of the top 3 in Buffalo (that’s where I disagree) and if he’s not another team might be willing to give value for him to be one of theirs. I still think they wouldn’t trade him.

 

"Odd man out" usually means cut in the NFL. I can't see the whole article so I was just going off what the tweet said.

 

If Jones is the #4, I don't think he makes the team because he offers nothing on special teams which is essential from your #4 and #5 WRs. Maybe we can flip him for a 7th round pick next year but we'd probably need to trade him soon to realize that type of return. 

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59 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is why I think Foster is taking a starting spot from Jones.   You've shown the numbers; Foster was easily as productive, probably more productive, than Jones, and Foster had a whole year's experience on him.  If I'm right about that, now Jones has to beat out Brown, and I'm not so sure he can do that.   If nothing else, Brown puts speed on the field that Jones can't match.  

 

I've been saying for months that once Zay falls out of the starting three, he's in trouble.  Now he's fighting with two other guys - probably Duke Williams and Andre Roberts, for snaps.   I think Williams has more natural talent, and Williams has more experience than people want to give him credit.  

 

Zay's had two years in the starting lineup and hasn't shown much.   I agree that it takes receivers two or three years, but I think he has to make a big jump this year or he'll be in trouble.  

 

 

Hey Shaw, I may have misunderstood your point. Wanted to put numbers out there for all. The whole thread was about Foster being dealt, which is silly, and I think we both agree. He has Eric Moulds/ James Lofton potential, especially with Allen.

 

Zay is never going to be an NFL #1, maybe a #2. He fits in just fine here because I don't think McDermott wants 1 or 2 elite WRs. I really think he wants a handful of guys that can hurt you in many ways. I think 4 capable NFL WRs is more dangerous than one, maybe two top guys you can focus on. My over under on Jones is 50-650-6. If you have 3-4 guys that can do that or better, and a QB that can find them, that is dangerous.

 

We now have 2 speed guys with nice hands in Brown and Foster. We also have two slot/ possession guys in Jones and Beasley. All can do 40-60 and 600-1000 in damage per year. Spread em out, and have depth IMO. I took it from your post you don't agree.

 

Roberts is ST and adds some at WR. The other guys will have to prove it out.

 

thanks for a civil conversation

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I see foster used in red zone situations more than Brown. Foster has size. I believe in Zay, Beasly, and Foster in short yardage situations

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1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

Hey Shaw, I may have misunderstood your point. Wanted to put numbers out there for all. The whole thread was about Foster being dealt, which is silly, and I think we both agree. He has Eric Moulds/ James Lofton potential, especially with Allen.

 

Zay is never going to be an NFL #1, maybe a #2. He fits in just fine here because I don't think McDermott wants 1 or 2 elite WRs. I really think he wants a handful of guys that can hurt you in many ways. I think 4 capable NFL WRs is more dangerous than one, maybe two top guys you can focus on. My over under on Jones is 50-650-6. If you have 3-4 guys that can do that or better, and a QB that can find them, that is dangerous.

 

We now have 2 speed guys with nice hands in Brown and Foster. We also have two slot/ possession guys in Jones and Beasley. All can do 40-60 and 600-1000 in damage per year. Spread em out, and have depth IMO. I took it from your post you don't agree.

 

Roberts is ST and adds some at WR. The other guys will have to prove it out.

 

thanks for a civil conversation

This is excellent!  I agree with this. It's a complementary team.   It's what Minnesota looks like.  I'm not sure it's the only way to build a receiving corps, but you describe what these guys look like and how they'll play.  I just think we may very well find that Williams is the fourth, not Zay.  Not a sure thing, I just think Zay has a lot to prove and that Williams may be closer than may appear to some.

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Fahay is abysmal. He blocked me on Twitter for saying so as well.

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4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

A couple of months ago there was a report that Daboll had changed the QB's read structure.  I think it used to be outside in, or deep to short.  In any case, this year the QBs are reading short routes to long.

 


I don't suppose you'd be able to direct me to that report? I don't doubt that it's true, but I must have missed it. I'd be interested to read it.

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37 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is excellent!  I agree with this. It's a complementary team.   It's what Minnesota looks like.  I'm not sure it's the only way to build a receiving corps, but you describe what these guys look like and how they'll play.  I just think we may very well find that Williams is the fourth, not Zay.  Not a sure thing, I just think Zay has a lot to prove and that Williams may be closer than may appear to some.

 

Fair point, D. Williams has CFL cred, while Zay Jones has NFL Draft cred. I'll lean Jones, you lean Williams (a solid signing IMO), and hope one of them work out for our Bills.

 

Either way the Bills are going to field waves of WR and all sorts of mixes of speed and hands. All good to me. If no Bills WR tops 1k yards, but they have 4x 650+, or 2 x 700 and 2 x 500 I bet it's a wining season. It's a passing league, so why not go Houston Oilers and spread it out? Those Oilers teams did not have 2 HOF RBs and a few young bucks too. The Bills will run some still, but the passing game will be difficult to stop because there is no #1.

 

I think WR is in great shape. It will suck for fantasy, but having 4 solid WRs is the next gen offense. Key on who?

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