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Ethan in Portland

What would need to occur to extend or fire McDermott?

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1 hour ago, vorpma said:

Fire everybody, no Super Bowl win, fire everybody again - the "informed fan's" mantra!

 

Well, that is pretty much what the Bills have been doing since Marv Levy left, so those fans are spot on.

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1 hour ago, Another Fan said:

Breaking the drought pretty much bought  him three years to do his thing or trust the process so to speak.

 

Hes not going to get fired this year but I do think he’s under the microscope a little more this year vs last 

You’re probably correct and we are all happy the drought is over.  But if you are objective about that playoff team, it was about as bad of a playoff team as there has been.  It also shows how pathetic the previous 17 years are because you should just get lucky.  

 

But expectations isnt a bad thing.  Teams can go from bad to good in one offseason in the NFL.  The Bears fired Lovie Smith after a 10 win season.  The Raptors fired the coach of the year after making the conference finals.  

 

Honest question: what is one thing McDermott has shown that looks like an elite coach skill?

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According to our esteemed beat reporter (soon to be ex) Mr. Rodak, projections that this regime will be canned even for a no-show non-playoff 2019 year, are a non-starter:

 

Can the Bills' decision-makers survive missing the playoffs in 2019?

Yes. Coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane earned goodwill from fans in 2017 when they led the franchise to its first playoff appearance since 1999. That kept fans off their backs when the Bills finished 6-10 last season, which was partly the result of trading quarterback Tyrod Taylor and drafting Josh Allen -- and then watching their developing rookie quarterback become injured midseason. Fans understood Beane and McDermott did not see Taylor as the foundation of a long-term contender and are more hopeful Allen can be the franchise quarterback. As long as Allen takes a step forward in 2019, Beane and McDermott can survive into 2020 without making the playoffs. The top decision-makers seem to have sold the fan base on incremental improvements over instant gratification. -- Mike Rodak

 

I humbly note that Rodak must not be much of a reader of the goings-on here at TBD. ;)

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26995546/answering-biggest-2019-questions-all-32-nfl-teams-division

40 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Fever dream of a McDermott hater.

I definitely feel that so long as we see continued improvement on O, in particular the maturation of Allen's game in the right direction, McD & Co. are not going to be let go short of a dramatic implosion of the team, which by definition is not going to happen if Allen progresses the way we hope/expect him to in year 2. 

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Through 2 years

 

Coach A:  14-18, -113 point differential, inherited a 5-11 team

 

coach B: 15-17, -162 point differential, inherited a 7-9 team

 

if Mcdermott wins 10+, extension.  If he has a losing record, barring a major qb injury or just awful luck and Allen shows progress, he gets fired.  Besides being a nice guy, what has he shown that is elite?  It’s the nfl. You don’t need 5 years to turn around teams anymore. 

 

And coach A was Dick Jauron.  

 

 

You're missing the point. Comparing the win totals between a coach who's rebuilding (this group) and a coach who's reloading (Jauron) is like comparing SAT score between a high school senior and an elementary school student. A rebuild puts you at the baby stage in the life cycle of a team. A reload shows you have committed to win and very soon.

 

The guy who says, "Well, the high school guy got a much higher score, so that shows he's smarter than the elementary school kid, he'll be more successful in life than the elementary school kid and he'll do better in law school," ... that guy just doesn't get it. Nor does the guy who compares win totals for the first two years of a rebuild with win totals for the first two years of a reload. 

 

Fair enough if you wanted the Bills to rebuild rather than reload after Mularkey. But that's not the way they went. 

 

 

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

Honest question: what is one thing McDermott has shown that looks like an elite coach skill?

 

 

 

Building a very good defense.

Edited by Thurman#1
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2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Keep everybody even if they are good because they are nice and Buffalo should just be happy we have a coach.  You need 5 years to turn around a 7 win team!

Our fast food society at work; I want it and I want it now or I throw a temper tantrum!

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59 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

According to our esteemed beat reporter (soon to be ex) Mr. Rodak, projections that this regime will be canned even for a no-show non-playoff 2019 year, are a non-starter:

4- 5 more days of Roadhack !!!!!!!!!!!
 

may his replacement do a better job.  

 

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I think only way they get fired before contract end is Ethan in Portland blackmails the Pegulas into selling team to him so he can move it to Po(r)tland.

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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You're missing the point. Comparing the win totals between a coach who's rebuilding (this group) and a coach who's reloading (Jauron) is like comparing SAT score between a high school senior and an elementary school student. A rebuild puts you at the baby stage in the life cycle of a team. A reload shows you have committed to win and very soon.

 

The guy who says, "Well, the high school guy got a much higher score, so that shows he's smarter than the elementary school kid, he'll be more successful in life than the elementary school kid and he'll do better in law school," ... that guy just doesn't get it. Nor does the guy who compares win totals for the first two years of a rebuild with win totals for the first two years of a reload. 

 

Fair enough if you wanted the Bills to rebuild rather than reload after Mularkey. But that's not the way they went. 

 

 

 

 

Building a very good defense.

Jauron was reloading a 5-11 team?  And for the millionth time, it was a self inflicted reload.  McDermott has done a good job with the defense but it was a a defense that before Rex was one of the best in the nfl.  

 

I think SM is a better coach than Rex.  But some of you act like he took over the 0-16 Browns.  

27 minutes ago, vorpma said:

Our fast food society at work; I want it and I want it now or I throw a temper tantrum!

Just give Jauron a few more years and he’ll turn it around. 

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Fired in 2019? Don’t see it happening but anything worse than 20th overall on defense might do it...

 

Extension in 2019 AFC East title will DEFINITELY earn him an extension but I’m more a humble person and will say just simply making the playoffs will earn him an extension...

 

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42 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Jauron was reloading a 5-11 team?  And for the millionth time, it was a self inflicted reload.  McDermott has done a good job with the defense but it was a a defense that before Rex was one of the best in the nfl.  

 

I think SM is a better coach than Rex.  But some of you act like he took over the 0-16 Browns.  

Just give Jauron a few more years and he’ll turn it around. 

Woookay, enjoy your season and Happy Meal!

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Regardless of the results this season, or next, I don't think they talk extension until he's in the final year of his contract which will be 2021, I believe.

 

For him to get fired, I'd imagine an unmitigated disaster would have to happen. Like the entire team quitting on him or something. But I can't see that happening. Pegulas feel like they found their guy for the long haul and he's gonna be afforded plenty of time to right the ship. 

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Posted (edited)

Under McD the offense has skidded to the 30th ranked scoring offense.

 

It was 22nd his first season.  

 

His average scoring offense is therefore 26th.   Ryan's average scoring O was 11th, Marrone's 20th, and Gailey's 21st. We have to go back to Jauron ('06-'09) to get to 26th.  

 

Defensively the scoring D has not improved on his watch where it's sat at 18th.  Marrone inherited Gailey's 26th average ranked scoring D, made it 20th the following season, then 4th.  Obviously Gailey wasn't known for his defensive coaching prowess.  

 

Both of McD's units have slide from when he inherited the team.  The issues are known, but he's also now had three seasons to at least put something competitive on the field.  Given those rankings I'd say that we've been lucky to have won 15 games on his watch so far.  

 

One would think that he has to show very significant improvement in the offense this season in terms of being able to score.  Obviously any such improvement will come via improvements in Allen's play.  The team scored an average 389 points under Ryan with a QB that will likely never again have a starting job.  McD's offense has averaged 285 points, over 100 fewer.  The D has been about the same in that way.  

 

The last time that the O scored as few points as we did last season was Jauron's last year and his D held opponents to 48 fewer points (3 ppg) than McD.  Jauron was fired at that point.  So in short, if McD's O doesn't make a pretty good sized stride, and his D doesn't improve, his team after three seasons will be worse than Jauron's was in his last season.  I fail to see how that could possibly be acceptable under any circumstances.  

 

One would think that the defense would have to improve too.  

 

Seriously though, if the defense still doesn't rank above average and the O continues to linger in the bottom quartile, I'm not sure how he survives given no significant trend towards improvement.  At some point there has to be a leap in effectiveness of at least one of the units, particularly the offense.  

 

 

Edited by Ronin

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17 hours ago, Bills92 said:

Extend: Playoffs and a victory in the playoffs

Fired:  Less than 6 wins assuming Allan is healthy for the majority of the season  (If he is hurt for any extended period of time..  then I think McBeane get a pass)

 

 

Neither is going anywhere as far as getting fired goes.  I dont think an extention is coming unless a deep playoff run occurs.

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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Just give Jauron a few more years and he’ll turn it around. 

Vintage CBiscuit! :D

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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think SM is a better coach than Rex.  But some of you act like he took over the 0-16 Browns.  

 

He took over a team whose defense had been destroyed by the Ryan Bros., and who offense was "led,"  by Tyrod ***** Taylor.

 

That's not far from the 0-16 Browns, IMO.

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Building a very good defense.

Getting (apparent) buy in from a very diverse group.

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Posted (edited)

Under McD the offense has skidded to the 30th ranked scoring offense.

 

It was 22nd his first season.  

 

His average scoring offense is therefore 26th.   Ryan's average scoring O was 11th, Marrone's 20th, and Gailey's 21st. We have to go back to Jauron ('06-'09) to get to 26th.  

 

Defensively the scoring D has not improved on his watch where it's sat at 18th.  Marrone inherited Gailey's 26th average ranked scoring D, made it 20th the following season, then 4th.  Obviously Gailey wasn't known for his defensive coaching prowess.  

 

Both of McD's units have slide from when he inherited the team.  The issues are known, but he's also now had three seasons to at least put something competitive on the field.  Given those rankings I'd say that we've been lucky to have won 15 games on his watch so far.  

 

One would think that he has to show very significant improvement in the offense this season in terms of being able to score.  Obviously any such improvement will come via improvements in Allen's play.  The team scored an average 389 points under Ryan with a QB that will likely never again have a starting job.  McD's offense has averaged 285 points, over 100 fewer.  The D has been about the same in that way.  

 

One would think that the defense would have to improve too.  

 

Seriously though, if the defense still doesn't rank above average and the O continues to linger in the bottom quartile, I'm not sure how he survives given no significant trend towards improvement.  At some point there has to be a leap in effectiveness of at least one of the units, particularly the offense.  

 

Quote

What would need to occur to extend or fire McDermott?

 

I would probably ask a related question in a different way. 

 

If now in his third season, will McD (and Beane by inference) start taking significant heat if he cannot produce above-average units.  

 

With the exception of Edmunds and the secondary, it's not as if they've brought in any players to improve the offense or the DL, or even the OLB spots.  

 

With Allen and Oliver pending, along with their current and former free-agents, I mean seriously, if none or only a few of them all step-up then I'm not seeing why that means that these guys know what they're doing.  

 

If they can't produce O and D units that were better than they were when they got here, after three seasons, then I'm not sure they're right for the job.  What, they need a decade to demonstrate improvement?  

Edited by Ronin

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21 minutes ago, Rico said:

Vintage CBiscuit! :D

 

 

...AND...bring back Whaley so Rico is "happy happy"....:thumbsup:

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Posted (edited)

To be real here, neither had any particular credentials before they were hired.  Beane was entirely raw and McD's scoring defense at Carolina ranked squarely average during his tenure with it being ranked 26th in his last season there along with his second-worst yardage D ranking too at 21st.  He was all over the map from season to season with absolutely no consistency whatsoever in that regard.  

 

As a DC in Philly his scoring D ranked 20th.  

 

They were hardly the best hires to begin with and Beane was only brought on because he too came from Carolina in a bass-ackwards approach to hiring a GM & HC.  

 

They've produced nothing above-average here either and offensively they've taken us to the bottom of the league.  

 

Granted, Allen's pending as Oliver, but if they can't push us to above-average this season, I'm simply not seeing anything much less any kind of trend or pattern that even remotely suggests that they'll get there other than by luck in a single-season basis.  

 

At some point if you're on the right track then above-average is expected.  If we're happy with average or below-average then that's on us.  

 

As to Beane, of his day 1 & 2 draft picks none have proven to be premier players.  I like Edmunds chances, but both White and Dawkins have been inconsistent.  Phillips and Jones don't even approach being premier/impact.  This year's days 1 & 2 are still out with Oliver, Knox, Singletary, and Ford.  But if they end up being like our other two drafts, how can Beane's competency for this role not be called into question.  

 

 

Edited by Ronin

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Back to back 8 or fewer win seasons and he's gone. Back to back 10 or better win seasons, he's extended.

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17 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If he averages more than 74 claps per game he's fired....under that I'll extend. 

Impossible. He has OCDS.

 

Obsessive Clapping Disorder Syndrome 

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Posted (edited)

 

Quote

 

Quote

Fire everybody, no Super Bowl win, fire everybody again - the "informed fan's" mantra!

 

Well, that is pretty much what the Bills have been doing since Marv Levy left, so those fans are spot on.

 

Might actually make sense to hire more competent people to begin with.  

 

Jauron had known issues prior to his hire that were ignored.  I pointed them out at the time. 

 

Gailey hadn't coached in the NFL what, nearly a decade, and during a rapidly changing NFL at that time, and also had known issues.  

 

Marrone had absolutely no significant NFL experience.  

 

The whole Ryan things was just weird, almost everyone bought into that.  I know I did, foolishly.  Some people here staunchly and wisely spoke out about Ryan tho, but they were in a sizeable minority.  

 

You reap what you sew and get what you pay for.  We can't afford another $5M/season for a real coach or GM, but we waste tons of money on players that never perform because we don't want to pay extra for a proven GM or Coach.  

 

Again, Beane had absolutely no experience in this role and was clearly just hired because he could get along with the first-hired HC from the same team.  The team really had little choice at that point, they'd penned themselves in.  
 

McD hasn't proven that he's an above-average DC and he's certainly not proven that he's even an average HC.  Unless he budges that offense from 30th ranked scoring well into the average range this season, seriously, what's he proven.  Nothing.  

 

 

6 hours ago, Another Fan said:

Breaking the drought pretty much bought  him three years to do his thing or trust the process so to speak.

 

Hes not going to get fired this year but I do think he’s under the microscope a little more this year vs last 

 

If Allen doesn't make enormous strides, I don't think there's going to be much hope much less confidence that next year will be the year.   At that point under such circumstances the Pegulas would simply be awaiting the inevitable, which seems to be a staple in Buffalo.  

 

 

Edited by Ronin

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