Pass rushers primed to breakout

[C.Biscuit97]

24 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I have a problem with "scouts" using Donald's NFL profile to compare him to Oliver's college profile.  It's revisionist.  Online scouts said the same exact things about Donald back in 2014:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2014/3/15/5473430/aaron-donald-scouting-report

 

"Donald will never be mistaken for a two-gap run stuffer. He struggles to hold his ground against multiple blockers and will get overpowered. But at the same time, teams shouldn't expect him to be that type of defensive tackle. "

 

"Because he's not a classic 315-pound monster, Donald doesn't have the power of some defensive tackles. While he doesn't get pushed around, he doesn't necessarily win because of his strength. "

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/aaron-donald?id=2543485

 

WEAKNESSES

 Marginal height and frame is nearly maxed out. Hands are more active than strong -- could play with more pop and power. Overpowered in the run game and ground up by double teams. Gets snared and controlled by bigger, longer blockers. Not a two-gap player. Has some tweener traits -- lacks ideal length and bend to play outside.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Rounds 4-5

BOTTOM LINE

 Short, scrappy, instinctive, highly productive defensive lineman who does not look the part, but inspires confidence he can be an exception to the rule. Is the type you root for and has the quickness, athleticism and motor to earn a spot as a rotational three-technique in a fast-flowing 4-3 scheme.

 

Now, make no mistake, I disagreed with the above at the time, and I repeatedly said that if neither Watkins nor Evans fell to Buffalo's spot at 9, they should take Donald, because he's the best defensive player in the draft.  But for Walter (or anyone else) to say that Donald didn't have the same reservations to his name is simply revisionist.

As laughable as that report looks, it’s one idiot’s opinion.  It was the idiot who murdered Cam Newton’s smile.  I think he is basically out of the “scouting” business.  

 

I remember every mock I saw had Donald as a first rounder (though no one could have ever imagined he would be this good).  http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000345921/article/mock-draft-60-fourround-2014-nfl-draft-projection?akmobile=ios&akcarrier=other

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

11 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

I think he's going to have to avoid double-teams if he's going to do that.  Not sure I see that happening.  

 

From Ed Oliver's Draft profiles: 

 

nfl.com:  

• Gets mauled by down blocks and double teams

Walter Football:  Double teams also can give him problems. 

 

"He is not the same guy as Donald," said one source. "He is more comparable to a Dominique Easley. [Oliver is] disruptive, twitchy, and can do a lot of positive things, so that is why people are eager to compare him to Donald because they both have surprising speed. But Oliver is not Donald. Donald is extremely strong, and you could see that at the Senior Bowl when he was tossing guys around. Oliver has issues with mass and problems with double teams that Donald does not. [Oliver's] lateral anchor is a problem." 

 

The 3-technique will help him in that way but he's undersized, which I'm not sure needs to be reiterated, for a 3-T.  

 

I have greater hopes for him at DE, I'd really like to see what he can do out there with his speed.  I have a hunch that's where he'll end up.  I'm not bullish on him at 3T.  I think he'll be OK there but nowhere near his expectations.  I don't know if he has enough speed to play DE but I'm simply not seeing greatness at 3T/DT for him.  

 

That Dominique Easley comparison seems valid to me.  

 

 

 

 

That's what everyone said that they brought Lotulolei in for.  Either that hasn't worked, which is MO, or it has and Hughes, Murphy, and Lawson simply haven't been able to take advantage.  

Lotulolei hasn't been a pass rusher throughout his career.  His game is to tie up two blockers on running plays and create space for the linebackers to make plays.  He is difficult to move off a spot.  He isn't and hasn't been a guy that has commanded a double team in the passing game.  He isn't a guy that can generate quick penetration into the pocket and disrupt the timing of a play. Quite often, he comes off the field on obvious passing downs.  I'm expecting that Oliver is that quick penetrating DT that is impossible to handle with a one on one block.  I believe his style of play will be similar to Gerald McCoy or John Randle.  Time will tell whether Oliver can do that.  If he can't, it will likely have been a bad selection at pick number 9.  I believe that he will deliver the results that the Bills want and turn out to be a great draft pick.  If Hughes, Murphy, and Lawson can't take advantage of their opportunities, the Bills should move on from them.

[Ronin]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Nice to know that you once again refuse to acknowledge what anyone is actually saying and just trundle onward with your rant.

 

I'm only slightly amazed that you somehow got the literal opposite of the point that I was making from my post.

 

But I suppose that when the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

 

I know exactly what you're saying.  It's not difficult to grasp, there's no depth there.  

 

But once again, projecting an exception to make a point about another player is entirely remiss.  Unfortunately this place is laden with such stuff.  That's why all the false narratives form and why unrealistic expectations are put in place.  

 

I don't care what they said about Donald.  It's irrelevant, completely.  MY posts were reacting to what people here say about Oliver in relation to Donald.  What was in his draft profile is entirely irrelevant to any points that I've attempted to convey.  So the one missing the boat entirely is you.  Sorry.  

 

Your post only makes sense if your meaning is that they're reviews are going to be off on Oliver too.  Could very well be the case, hell, they're not any more accurate than the non-expert draft profilers, they all typically pull their info and opinions from the same relatively small collection of data and video, so why on earth would any of their conclusions be a whole lot different than each other's?   I'm one of the few people out there that will conduct my own analysis and challenge the establishment as such.  Unfortunately for them my track record is a whole lot better than theirs whether you or anyone here cares to admit it or not.  Then again, and just oddly, perhaps a huge part of the reason for that is because I'll spend 20 or 30 hours reviewing our top draft picks.  I'm the one that sees, Oliver for example since we're talking about him, getting stood up routinely in a game against a Sr. OL-man that wasn't drafted or even picked up as an UFA.  I'm the one that points out that almost all (never say never) of the OL-man that Oliver's beaten arent' any better.  

 

So, and call me nuts, for me to believe that he'll do the same thing in the NFL is a bit much.  Again, has absolutely nothing to do with Donald.  I'm not the one making comparisons to Donald re: Oliver.  The opposite in fact.  

 

And fine, don't like Walter, use nfl.com.  I'm not a big fan of the analytical methods of ANY draft gurus, Kiper, Mayock, any of them.  Few if any really spend the time required to get a tremendously in-depth analysis.  I've fully explained why on time-constraints to do so alone.  I guarantee you that I've spent more time than any of them on Oliver and Allen.  

 

But numerous draft profiles, for example, state that Oliver struggles against double teams, which is clearly what my review of his videos shows as well, yet, many people here have run on with some ill-founded narrative that he tears up not only double-teams but triple-teams.  

 

I don't ever compare a rookie to another player other than for perhaps illustrating what my expectations might be, as a mere example,  IMO that's the easiest way to get off the rails in any draftee review, to compare them to other NFL players.  And when I do it it's typically for the benefit of someone I'm talking with on that player.  

 

None of what I've just said should be difficult for anyone to get their mental arms around.  May not agree, but  it's simple to understand.  

[K-9]

11 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

That's all but ridiculous.  That U9 is a gimme.  

 

28 total players had 9+ sacks last season, only 7 were DTs.  

 

Donald led the league, DeForest Buckner, Jarran Reed, Fletcher Cox, and Geno Atkins were next in the progression and they're all entirely different types of players. Denico Autry is the only one that's in Oliver's prototye, and interestingly, he played DE too.  I have no idea how many of his 9 sacks were from the DE position.  That was also an odd positive year for him as he nearly matched his sack total from his other four years combined.  

 

I think we'll end up seeing Oliver playing some DE as well.  

 

 

 

Fully agree.  Donald had 9 in his rookie season.  Oliver's not Donald nor is he going to be.  

Why not?

[BADOLBILZ]

21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I have a problem with "scouts" using Donald's NFL profile to compare him to Oliver's college profile.  It's revisionist.  Online scouts said the same exact things about Donald back in 2014:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2014/3/15/5473430/aaron-donald-scouting-report

 

"Donald will never be mistaken for a two-gap run stuffer. He struggles to hold his ground against multiple blockers and will get overpowered. But at the same time, teams shouldn't expect him to be that type of defensive tackle. "

 

"Because he's not a classic 315-pound monster, Donald doesn't have the power of some defensive tackles. While he doesn't get pushed around, he doesn't necessarily win because of his strength. "

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/aaron-donald?id=2543485

 

WEAKNESSES

 Marginal height and frame is nearly maxed out. Hands are more active than strong -- could play with more pop and power. Overpowered in the run game and ground up by double teams. Gets snared and controlled by bigger, longer blockers. Not a two-gap player. Has some tweener traits -- lacks ideal length and bend to play outside.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Rounds 4-5

BOTTOM LINE

 Short, scrappy, instinctive, highly productive defensive lineman who does not look the part, but inspires confidence he can be an exception to the rule. Is the type you root for and has the quickness, athleticism and motor to earn a spot as a rotational three-technique in a fast-flowing 4-3 scheme.

 

Now, make no mistake, I disagreed with the above at the time, and I repeatedly said that if neither Watkins nor Evans fell to Buffalo's spot at 9, they should take Donald, because he's the best defensive player in the draft.  But for Walter (or anyone else) to say that Donald didn't have the same reservations to his name is simply revisionist.

 

 

 

I think most people thought of Aaron Donald a lot like Tre White............yeah he's probably going to be productive in the NFL but the ceiling is limited by the lack of one trait...........ignoring the fact that other aspects of their game are elite and that those traits will make them standouts.

 

Clearly those of us who thought Donald was easily the top defender in the draft were right and I would still take White over Lattimore though Lattimore has been everything the Saints could possibly have hoped for.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, K-9 said:

Why not?

I mean I guess it’s the same as people comparing Josh Allen to John Elway.  I mean there’s a chance but to compare a guy to an all time great seems a little crazy.  But Oliver can be a very good player.  But Donald might be the best pass rushing DT of my lifetime.  If Oliver is 70% as good as Donald, I’d be happy.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

As laughable as that report looks, it’s one idiot’s opinion.  It was the idiot who murdered Cam Newton’s smile.  I think he is basically out of the “scouting” business.  

 

I remember every mock I saw had Donald as a first rounder (though no one could have ever imagined he would be this good).  http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000345921/article/mock-draft-60-fourround-2014-nfl-draft-projection?akmobile=ios&akcarrier=other

 

Oh definitely.  I mean, I had him going 8 to Minnesota, and was all in favor of Buffalo taking him at 9.

 

As for one idiot's opinion, yeah, Nawrocki descended into buffoonery...but the point is that there was plenty of discussion regarding Donald's ability to hold up on the interior.

 

1 minute ago, Ronin said:

 

I know exactly what you're saying.  It's not difficult to grasp, there's no depth there.  

 

But once again, projecting an exception to make a point about another player is entirely remiss.  Unfortunately this place is laden with such stuff.  That's why all the false narratives form and why unrealistic expectations are put in place.  

 

I don't care what they said about Donald.  It's irrelevant, completely.  MY posts were reacting to what people here say about Oliver in relation to Donald.  What was in his draft profile is entirely irrelevant to any points that I've attempted to convey.  So the one missing the boat entirely is you.  Sorry.  

 

Your post only makes sense if your meaning is that they're reviews are going to be off on Oliver too.  Could very well be the case, hell, they're not any more accurate than the non-expert draft profilers, they all typically pull their info and opinions from the same relatively small collection of data and video, so why on earth would any of their conclusions be a whole lot different than each other's?   I'm one of the few people out there that will conduct my own analysis and challenge the establishment as such.  Unfortunately for them my track record is a whole lot better than theirs whether you or anyone here cares to admit it or not.  Then again, and just oddly, perhaps a huge part of the reason for that is because I'll spend 20 or 30 hours reviewing our top draft picks.  I'm the one that sees, Oliver for example since we're talking about him, getting stood up routinely in a game against a Sr. OL-man that wasn't drafted or even picked up as an UFA.  I'm the one that points out that almost all (never say never) of the OL-man that Oliver's beaten arent' any better.  

 

So, and call me nuts, for me to believe that he'll do the same thing in the NFL is a bit much.  Again, has absolutely nothing to do with Donald.  I'm not the one making comparisons to Donald re: Oliver.  The opposite in fact.  

 

And fine, don't like Walter, use nfl.com.  I'm not a big fan of the analytical methods of ANY draft gurus, Kiper, Mayock, any of them.  Few if any really spend the time required to get a tremendously in-depth analysis.  I've fully explained why on time-constraints to do so alone.  I guarantee you that I've spent more time than any of them on Oliver and Allen.  

 

But numerous draft profiles, for example, state that Oliver struggles against double teams, which is clearly what my review of his videos shows as well, yet, many people here have run on with some ill-founded narrative that he tears up not only double-teams but triple-teams.  

 

I don't ever compare a rookie to another player other than for perhaps illustrating what my expectations might be, as a mere example,  IMO that's the easiest way to get off the rails in any draftee review, to compare them to other NFL players.  And when I do it it's typically for the benefit of someone I'm talking with on that player.  

 

None of what I've just said should be difficult for anyone to get their mental arms around.  May not agree, but  it's simple to understand.  

 

Nope, you clearly don't get the point.

 

You posted a link to someone saying "he's clearly not Aaron Donald" because he got beat up against double-teams etc.  My response to you was that I had a problem with anyone comparing Donald as an NFL player to Oliver as a college player.  That comparison is stupid, because we now have 5 seasons of NFL body-of-work on which to judge Donald.  If someone is going to make that comparison, they should be doing so based upon Donald's college tape, but that would've contradicted what the Walter scout was saying.

 

Instead of reading that, digesting it, and acknowledging it, you decided to obfuscate.  Why I'll never know.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean I guess it’s the same as people comparing Josh Allen to John Elway.  I mean there’s a chance but to compare a guy to an all time great seems a little crazy.  But Oliver can be a very good player.  But Donald might be the best pass rushing DT of my lifetime.  If Oliver is 70% as good as Donald, I’d be happy.

That’s all well and good and congrats on getting in another Josh Allen mention, but I’m more interested in having my question answered. Why won’t Ed Oliver be Aaron Donald?

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

That’s all well and good and congrats on getting in another Josh Allen mention, but I’m more interested in having my question answered. Why won’t Ed Oliver be Aaron Donald?

Yeah dude.  Josh Allen is John Elway.  Ed Oliver is Aaron Donald. Foster is Antonio Brown. Knox is Travis Kelce.  McDermott is Belichick. Beane is Bill Polian. And I only date girls who look like Margot Robbie.  This year is going to be sick!

[Ronin]

19 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Lotulolei hasn't been a pass rusher throughout his career.  His game is to tie up two blockers on running plays and create space for the linebackers to make plays.  

 

Again, yes, that's the narrative.  Must be why our LBs logged a whopping 10.5 sacks last season.  At some point the narrative needs to be reconciled with what the results are.  

 

 

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah dude.  Josh Allen is John Elway.  Ed Oliver is Aaron Donald. Foster is Antonio Brown. Knox is Travis Kelce.  McDermott is Belichick. Beane is Bill Polian. And I only date girls who look like Margot Robbie.  This year is going to be sick!

Why go off like that? My question about Oliver is legit. What, to this point indicates he won’t/can’t be another Donald. 

 

Regarding Allen and Elway; Allen had a far, far better rookie year compared to Elway, so I’m enthused. 

[Ronin]

22 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I'm expecting that Oliver is that quick penetrating DT that is impossible to handle with a one on one block.  I believe his style of play will be similar to Gerald McCoy or John Randle.  Time will tell whether Oliver can do that.  If he can't, it will likely have been a bad selection at pick number 9.  I believe that he will deliver the results that the Bills want and turn out to be a great draft pick.  If Hughes, Murphy, and Lawson can't take advantage of their opportunities, the Bills should move on from them.

 

Again, that's the narrative, that's what everyone is saying.  There's a reason for that, theyr'e all drawing their info from the same source.  

 

Did those sources watch all the times that Oliver was stood up agianst Sr. OL-man Paul Stawarz like I did?  I don't think they did.  He didn't even get drafted or even picked up as an UFA, at least not that I see.  That's relevant independent research. 

 

What you say about double-teams and Oliver many people here have disagreed with in their posts.  Where are they getting theiir info.  (rhetorical)  

 

Talk, particularly sports talk, is tremendously cheap, and for those that do it for a living, they can be 90% wrong and have jobs for years.  

[Ronin]

22 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Oh definitely.  I mean, I had him going 8 to Minnesota, and was all in favor of Buffalo taking him at 9.

 

As for one idiot's opinion, yeah, Nawrocki descended into buffoonery...but the point is that there was plenty of discussion regarding Donald's ability to hold up on the interior.

 

See, here's the difference between me and you and everyone else.  I dont' care about where players are ranked.  

 

I understand the inevitability that there are going to be a whole bunch of busts.  It's expected for those that don't want to bury their heads in the sand.  

 

I wouldn't have drafted Oliver anywhere where he'd have been available.  If  by some outside stroke her were still there in the 2nd I'd have thought about it then.  Remember when they said that Ragland was really a 1st-round LB?  There have been other players as well.  

 

I don't pay any attention to any of that.  My take on Zay Jones was that he was a mid-round risk-worthy pick at best, but it was likely that he too would be gone by then, so as a team I wouldn't even bother thinking about him.  

 

I pay very little attention to convention when it comes to the Draft.  

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Why go off like that? My question about Oliver is legit. What, to this point indicates he won’t/can’t be another Donald. 

 

Regarding Allen and Elway; Allen had a far, far better rookie year compared to Elway, so I’m enthused. 

I love Oliver.  And it’s good to be enthusiastic.  But I’ll learn that it helps to have reasonable expectations.  Donald might be the greatest  pass rushing DT when it’s all done.  People are trying to say Allen will win the MVP.  It’s just setting yourself up for disappointment.  Oliver could have a Dareus type rookie year and that would be awesome. 

 

And I think you’re a smart poster even when we disagree.  But you really think comparing qb stats from 35 years ago to current day is fair?

[ROCBillsBeliever]

16 hours ago, CommonCents said:

Did Canada legalize cocaine?

 

Inconclusive, but the ex-mayor of Toronto was a known white-noser ???

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

See, here's the difference between me and you and everyone else.  I dont' care about where players are ranked.  

 

I pay very little attention to convention when it comes to the Draft.  

 

You have no clue.

 

If you bothered to spend a quarter of a second looking into it, you'd see that implying that I'm relying on anyone else's evaluation outs you as ignorant.  I've spent years on this board writing up profiles on players and doing hundreds of draft work-ups every year.

 

You want me to polish your apples because you had Zay Jones as a mid-round pick?  Be proud of that, that's really incredible work.  Ground-breaking stuff.

 

 

It would do you some good in terms of credibility to pay attention to who you accuse of regurgitating rankings.  If you don't know, ask a friend.

 

[K-9]

3 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

Again, that's the narrative, that's what everyone is saying.  There's a reason for that, theyr'e all drawing their info from the same source.  

 

Did those sources watch all the times that Oliver was stood up agianst Sr. OL-man Paul Stawarz like I did?  I don't think they did.  He didn't even get drafted or even picked up as an UFA, at least not that I see.  That's relevant independent research. 

 

What you say about double-teams and Oliver many people here have disagreed with in their posts.  Where are they getting theiir info.  (rhetorical)  

 

Talk, particularly sports talk, is tremendously cheap, and for those that do it for a living, they can be 90% wrong and have jobs for years.  

It’s possible that the countless man hours spent pouring over Oliver’s game tapes by scouts and other personnel evaluators may have missed that, but I doubt it. It’s a shame you weren’t able to offer your “relevant independent research” to every NFL team to alert them.

 

Regarding your review of his play vs. Paul Stawarz, I didn’t catch it initially so I’m hoping you can provide some context. What was the game situation, what were the alignments on both sides of the ball, and what were Oliver’s reads and responsibilities relative to his teammates? Also, were there any mitigating circumstances to consider for that game and on those particular plays? I guarantee that if Stawarz’s performance raised concerns, those questions were asked of both Oliver and his coaches. 

[Ronin]

27 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Nope, you clearly don't get the point.

 

You posted a link to someone saying "he's clearly not Aaron Donald" because he got beat up against double-teams etc.  My response to you was that I had a problem with anyone comparing Donald as an NFL player to Oliver as a college player.  That comparison is stupid, because we now have 5 seasons of NFL body-of-work on which to judge Donald.  If someone is going to make that comparison, they should be doing so based upon Donald's college tape, but that would've contradicted what the Walter scout was saying.

 

Instead of reading that, digesting it, and acknowledging it, you decided to obfuscate.  Why I'll never know.

 

Yeah, I do.  You missed the point of whatever it is that I posted.  Or perhaps I didn't clarify appropriately.  

 

Again, I'm not the one comparing Oliver to Donald, everyone here is.  Oliver can only be compared as a collegiate player, there's no body of work otherwise.  The references to Donald are to him as a pro.  The intention of these posters is clear, Donald too was a small-school DT for one.  That's irrelevant.  If it were relevant then the strategy to draft a QB would be to go for them in the 6th round because that's where the GOAT was drafted.  Horrible form.  

 

Again, I have a horrible timme with anyone comparing Donald as an NFL player to Oliver also.  

 

That's my entire point.  My comments were to those comparing Oliver, as a college player since that's all we have, to Donald, as a pro for x-number of seasons.  

 

We're fully in agreement, but I'm not the one comparing the two.  In fact, as you admit, I said that Oliver wasn't Donald.  I suppose that's an indirect comparison but as such not what we're talking about here. 

 

BTW, it's also remiss to take players that were exceptions to expectations, and use those exceptions to project their NFL capability when there are far more examples of the contrary.  In this particular case any comparisons should end immediately given that Donald played at Pitt, a power-5 school, against individual opponents many of which were drafted and are still in the NFL.  

 

And hey, Oliver may be as good as Donald, Sapp, or any other DT that ever played in the NFL.  I'm simply giving you my assessment.  It's clear that few put any credence in it.  I did the same for Spiller, Watkins, McCargo (since we're talking DTs), and more recently Zay Jones, everyone's take on my takes was pretty much exactly the same for them and more.  I'm fully good with it, truly.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

You have no clue.

 

If you bothered to spend a quarter of a second looking into it, you'd see that implying that I'm relying on anyone else's evaluation outs you as ignorant.  I've spent years on this board writing up profiles on players and doing hundreds of draft work-ups every year.

 

You want me to polish your apples because you had Zay Jones as a mid-round pick?  Be proud of that, that's really incredible work.  Ground-breaking stuff.

 

It would do you some good in terms of credibility to pay attention to who you accuse of regurgitating rankings.  If you don't know, ask a friend.

 

OK, thanks.    

 

Point me to your write-up of Zay Jones.  

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, K-9 said:

It’s possible that the countless man hours spent pouring over Oliver’s game tapes by scouts and other personnel evaluators may have missed that, but I doubt it. It’s a shame you weren’t able to offer your “relevant independent research” to every NFL team to alert them.

 

Regarding your review of his play vs. Paul Stawarz, I didn’t catch it initially so I’m hoping you can provide some context. What was the game situation, what were the alignments on both sides of the ball, and what were Oliver’s reads and responsibilities relative to his teammates? Also, were there any mitigating circumstances to consider for that game and on those particular plays? I guarantee that if Stawarz’s performance raised concerns, those questions were asked of both Oliver and his coaches. 

 

You're talking about a game during which Texas Tech ran over 100 plays on offense, many of which were explicitly designed to take Oliver's pass rush out of the equation.  It didn't work well early, but around play 90 you could see that Oliver was gassed.

 

Playing nearly 600 snaps 0-tech at 285 lbs over the course of a season and getting doubled nearly 50% of the time, while playing alongside few other draftable defensive pieces, can do that to a guy.

6 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

And hey, Oliver may be as good as Donald, Sapp, or any other DT that ever played in the NFL.  I'm simply giving you my assessment.  It's clear that few put any credence in it.  I did the same for Spiller, Watkins, McCargo (since we're talking DTs), and more recently Zay Jones, everyone's take on my takes was pretty much exactly the same for them and more.  I'm fully good with it, truly.  

 

 

I'm fine with the assessment.  What I find stupid is the following:

 

- Comparing Oliver's college evaluation to Donald as an NFL player, while ignoring what talent evaluators said about Donald in the leadup to the 2014 draft

- Straw-manning by saying that somehow everyone is claiming that Oliver = Donald

- Touting your own draft genius by claiming superior evaluations of 4 players over a 10 year period...if you have to tell people how smart you are, then that means that they can't see it for themselves. Notice that guys like Blokes and Gunner don't need to tell everyone how brilliant their draft evaluations are/were; if you've got the goods then people know it.

[Ronin]

21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

You're talking about a game during which Texas Tech ran over 100 plays on offense, many of which were explicitly designed to take Oliver's pass rush out of the equation.  It didn't work well early, but around play 90 you could see that Oliver was gassed.

 

Playing nearly 600 snaps 0-tech at 285 lbs over the course of a season and getting doubled nearly 50% of the time, while playing alongside few other draftable defensive pieces, can do that to a guy.

 

LOL 

 

So one-on-one was designed to take Oliver out of the pass-rush?  OK, well it worked.  I hope he performs better than that here.  

 

As one.  There are other games too but clearly you'll make excuses for them as well.

 

BTW, would also love to read your takes on Spiller and Watkins.  I know those were favorable because there was no one, and I mean absolutely NO ONE that agreed with my takes.  

 

So say what you want and choose, but works for me.    

 

Seems to me my accuracy with those however is pretty dam lucky given how stupid, ignorant, and uninformed I am.  Perhaps I'll change my avatar to "Ignoramus."  Seriously, I like that.  I'll have to wait, I just changed it, I thought I read that it'll be 6 months before I can change it again.  

 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Ronin

[K-9]

25 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I love Oliver.  And it’s good to be enthusiastic.  But I’ll learn that it helps to have reasonable expectations.  Donald might be the greatest  pass rushing DT when it’s all done.  People are trying to say Allen will win the MVP.  It’s just setting yourself up for disappointment.  Oliver could have a Dareus type rookie year and that would be awesome. 

 

And I think you’re a smart poster even when we disagree.  But you really think comparing qb stats from 35 years ago to current day is fair?

Well, I personally don’t have unreasonable expectations. I pretty much take it as it comes. If I had any level of direct influence on the team and their outcomes, perhaps I would. That doesn’t mean I’m above good natured hyperbole from time time, but it’s offered tongue in cheek. Like when I say Allen will be a first ballot HOFer when he’s done, for instance. 

 

Comparisons across eras is always a mistake. Always. But, and I offer this without any animosity intended, you introduced Elway into this discussion about Oliver. 

 

Anyway, I agree there’s a lot to like about Oliver. And my question still stands as to why anyone would say he won’t/can’t be another Donald. Especially when there is little to go by other than their remarkable similarities in physical attributes, most notably their insane athleticism. 

 

 

[Ronin]

13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I'm fine with the assessment.  What I find stupid is the following:

 

- Comparing Oliver's college evaluation to Donald as an NFL player, while ignoring what talent evaluators said about Donald in the leadup to the 2014 draft

- Straw-manning by saying that somehow everyone is claiming that Oliver = Donald

- Touting your own draft genius by claiming superior evaluations of 4 players over a 10 year period...if you have to tell people how smart you are, then that means that they can't see it for themselves. Notice that guys like Blokes and Gunner don't need to tell everyone how brilliant their draft evaluations are/were; if you've got the goods then people know it.

 

Oh dude, you're hilarious.  

 

I'm not pointing out my "draft genius" or anything, I'm simply stating that I'm perfectly comfortable with my analyses and for good reason.  I could give a crap whether you care.  Really.  The rest is critical discussion. 

 

And yes, everyone saw for themselves how great and special Spiller would be, or how Watkins would dominate, and how the record-setting Jones would be prolific.  

 

Yeah yeah.  Again, would love to see your assessments of those guys since you brought it up how much time and effort you spend on such things.  

 

I'll assume that those are not forthcoming.   

 

Otherwise, I think we're finished here.  You're getting all personal and I don't care.  We've exhausted our discussion of Oliver in any form it's been carried on.  We wont' agree until the results come in.  

[K-9]

16 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

You're talking about a game during which Texas Tech ran over 100 plays on offense, many of which were explicitly designed to take Oliver's pass rush out of the equation.  It didn't work well early, but around play 90 you could see that Oliver was gassed.

 

Playing nearly 600 snaps 0-tech at 285 lbs over the course of a season and getting doubled nearly 50% of the time, while playing alongside few other draftable defensive pieces, can do that to a guy.

 

I'm fine with the assessment.  What I find stupid is the following:

 

- Comparing Oliver's college evaluation to Donald as an NFL player, while ignoring what talent evaluators said about Donald in the leadup to the 2014 draft

- Straw-manning by saying that somehow everyone is claiming that Oliver = Donald

- Touting your own draft genius by claiming superior evaluations of 4 players over a 10 year period...if you have to tell people how smart you are, then that means that they can't see it for themselves. Notice that guys like Blokes and Gunner don't need to tell everyone how brilliant their draft evaluations are/were; if you've got the goods then people know it.

This is an example of a mitigating circumstance I alluded to in my response to Ronin. I’ll stake my shady reputation on it that EVERYBODY involved in Oliver’s scouting process league wide asked about that game and those plays if they thought it even raised hint of a flag about their assessment of Oliver. 

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

LOL 

 

So one-on-one was designed to take Oliver out of the pass-rush?  OK, well it worked.  I hope he performs better than that here.  

 

As one.  There are other games too but clearly you'll make excuses for them as well.

 

BTW, would also love to read your takes on Spiller and Watkins.  I know those were favorable because there was no one, and I mean absolutely NO ONE that agreed with my takes.  

 

So say what you want and choose, but works for me.    

 

First off, he was blocked one-on-one on about half of the snaps; it's important that you watch without an agenda (I can type that really fast now that I've written it to you at least 2 dozen times over the past few weeks). Secondly, watch the game.  Tech's offense was designed to get the ball out quickly.  Here's some football 101 for you: get the ball out in less than 2 seconds and the pass rush is severely limited.

 

As for my takes on individual players, I'm not here to lay mine on the table for measurements.  You want to know my takes on individual guys? Go look them up.  This board has a search function.

 

I'll remind you while you tout your genius that Sammy Watkins has the best season by a WR for the Bills in the last half-decade. In the last 2 seasons, in the pass-happy NFL, there have been a cumulative total of 35 WRs that had 1,000 yards. In 2015, Watkins had 1,000 yards on 96 targets in 13 games playing for a team that threw the ball less than any other team in football while catching passes from a career backup.  His problem has been availability more than anything else.

 

But great call on that one.

 

It's easy to point to first-round players and predict that they're busts.  It's actually a 50/50 proposition.  That you've only gotten 4 right in 10 years is astonishingly bad actually.

 

You want to impress me? Tell me a player that you were wrong about.  I'll learn a heckuva a lot more about your ability to scout players from you telling me what traits you saw in a guy that busted when you expected more from him than I will from your chest-thumping.

 

I'll give you an example: @Blokestradamus can scouts guards like nobody's business. He was all over Danny Isidora in the leadup to the 2017 draft.  Izzy ended up going in the 5th round and has been generally lousy (sorry Blokes) for Minnesota.  But do you know what I learned about Blokes in the process?  That he recognizes contact balance and hand usage when he sees it.

 

4 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

Oh dude, you're hilarious.  

 

I'm not pointing out my "draft genius" or anything, I'm simply stating that I'm perfectly comfortable with my analyses and for good reason.  I could give a crap whether you care.  Really.  The rest is critical discussion. 

 

And yes, everyone saw for themselves how great and special Spiller would be, or how Watkins would dominate, and how the record-setting Jones would be prolific.  

 

Yeah yeah.  Again, would love to see your assessments of those guys since you brought it up how much time and effort you spend on such things.  

 

I'll assume that those are not forthcoming.   

 

Otherwise, I think we're finished here.  You're getting all personal and I don't care.  We've exhausted our discussion of Oliver in any form it's been carried on.  We wont' agree until the results come in.  

 

Yes, you are trotting out your draft record as though it has any relevance in this discussion.  "I was right about Spiller/Watkins/etc and nobody else agreed with me, but I'm cool with it" as though it's going to have some impact on me.

 

You want my draft evaluations? They're on the board for all to see. Like I said: if you have the goods, you don't need to trumpet your own record.

[Ronin]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

You want my draft evaluations? They're on the board for all to see. Like I said: if you have the goods, you don't need to trumpet your own record.

 

I'm stupid and ignorant, remember.  

 

Send me the links to your Spiller, Watkins, Zay Jones, Lawson, and Ragland draft reviews.  

[Stank_Nasty]

Ronin doing Ronin things, I see.....

 

CLASSIC.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[thebandit27]

Just now, Ronin said:

 

I'm stupid and ignorant, remember.  

 

Send me the links to your Spiller, Watkins, Zay Jones, Lawson, and Ragland draft reviews.  

 

Ignorant regarding how I grade prospects? Yes.  I never said you were stupid; I said that you did something stupid.  It happens; we all do it from time to time.  Don't believe me? Have kids.  You'll see.

 

As for my evaluations, search the board.  It's not hard.

[Seasons1992]

16 hours ago, CommonCents said:

Did Canada legalize cocaine?

 

[dave mcbride]

15 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im a big fan of Jerry, don't get me wrong, but he did not have 10 sacks in 2014.  In 9 career seasons, he has one season of 10 sacks and it was in 2013.  In fact he only has more than 7 twice in his 9 year career.  Look for yourself here:  https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/13245/jerry-hughes

 

So his last double digit season was 5 years ago, and the last 4 seasons he averaged 5 sacks.  So a 12 to 15 sack season would be a breakout IMO. 

He absolutely had 10 in 2014. There was a misattribution of a sack in the final game against the Pats, but the official scorers ultimately (and correctly) credited him with the half-sack (he was the lead guy on the sack). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HughJe99.htm and http://www.nfl.com/player/jerryhughes/496796/profile. ESPN is wrong. Here's the box score: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201412280nwe.htm.

Edited June 25, 2019 by dave mcbride

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Ronin said:

 

I'm stupid and ignorant, remember.  

 

Send me the links to your Spiller, Watkins, Zay Jones, Lawson, and Ragland draft reviews.  

Of his entire post.....:THIS is what you quote and respond too?  Oh boy.  

[Ronin]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Ignorant regarding how I grade prospects? Yes.  I never said you were stupid; I said that you did something stupid.  It happens; we all do it from time to time.  Don't believe me? Have kids.  You'll see.

 

As for my evaluations, search the board.  It's not hard.

 

I never said anything about you personally being ignorant, please don't put words in my mouth.  I try my best to keep personal insults out of the mix of what I prefer to be civil conversation.  If something I said was construed as such, I apologize.  Often times I generalize and it's taken personally.  Imagine that in a forum.  LOL 

 

Otherwise, as with you, I may point out that a method, analysis, or something said was not wise, is foolish, etc., but again, I do my damdest to ensure that I don't violate the ToS.  

 

I did search, it didn't go back that far.  Same here, search on mine.  Many of mine from former days were online in numerous places.  

 

LOL on the kids.  

[CommonCents]

2 hours ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

Inconclusive, but the ex-mayor of Toronto was a known white-noser ???

Tis The Great White North. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Ronin said:

 

I never said anything about you personally being ignorant, please don't put words in my mouth.  I try my best to keep personal insults out of the mix of what I prefer to be civil conversation.  If something I said was construed as such, I apologize.  Often times I generalize and it's taken personally.  Imagine that in a forum.  LOL 

 

Otherwise, as with you, I may point out that a method, analysis, or something said was not wise, is foolish, etc., but again, I do my damdest to ensure that I don't violate the ToS.  

 

I did search, it didn't go back that far.  Same here, search on mine.  Many of mine from former days were online in numerous places.  

 

LOL on the kids.  

 

You didn't.  I said that you didn't know anything about my approach to draft grades, and that's the end of that.

 

I've never taken issue with your evaluations; I only ever said that pointing out a few times you were right as though it should give your opinion any greater emphasis doesn't mean much to me.  You have an opinion, and that's fine.

 

If you want a peak at how I evaluate players, the LB thread from the 2016 draft (linked below) is a good sample space.  Lots of discussion about different prospects, what systems they do/don't fit, how the position of off-ball 'backer is changing in the NFL, etc

 

 

[CommonCents]

9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

You didn't.  I said that you didn't know anything about my approach to draft grades, and that's the end of that.

 

I've never taken issue with your evaluations; I only ever said that pointing out a few times you were right as though it should give your opinion any greater emphasis doesn't mean much to me.  You have an opinion, and that's fine.

 

If you want a peak at how I evaluate players, the LB thread from the 2016 draft (linked below) is a good sample space.  Lots of discussion about different prospects, what systems they do/don't fit, how the position of off-ball 'backer is changing in the NFL, etc

 

 

Dang was hoping you’d find the post Ragland pick thread! I wish I knew how to properly use the search function. 

[Ronin]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

You didn't.  I said that you didn't know anything about my approach to draft grades, and that's the end of that.

 

I've never taken issue with your evaluations; I only ever said that pointing out a few times you were right as though it should give your opinion any greater emphasis doesn't mean much to me.  You have an opinion, and that's fine.

 

If you want a peak at how I evaluate players, the LB thread from the 2016 draft (linked below) is a good sample space.  Lots of discussion about different prospects, what systems they do/don't fit, how the position of off-ball 'backer is changing in the NFL, etc

 

 

 

I didn't say that I did know your methods.  Again, my comments are generally meant.  As well, I've not seen yours, that's why I say that "I've not seen ..."  

 

I'd love to read 'em.  I'd even love to discuss, but forums are toxic for group noise and mob-mentality.  You have to admit however, that just about everything you read about draft picks is little more than parroted-back stuff that's out there in the mainstream.  

 

Quote

I've never taken issue with your evaluations; I only ever said that pointing out a few times you were right as though it should give your opinion any greater emphasis doesn't mean much to me.  You have an opinion, and that's fine.

 

That's fine, and noted.  But the majority of people here do take issue with them.  And truly, I give a crap about being right.  I simply call it as I see it.  But people LOVE to cite the so-called "experts" which I've pointed out many times in the past had their heads so far up their tailpipes that it's amazing that they're still regarded as "experts."  And around here, it's funny how some are experts when their opinions align with the mob/pop mentality, yet despite being correct way more often than not, when their opinions don't align then they're morons.  I won't mention any names, it's pointless.  

 

I also don't expect you to agree with me.  Few ever do when I'm as critical as I am re: Allen & Oliver.  Again, absolutely no one agreed with me on Spiller or Watkins, no one, anywhere, nationally, regional, here, anywhere.  So I fully expect that.  What I don't appreciate is being spoken down to as if I'm some kind of ######, particularly given my track record and being lectured as if my methods haven't worked in the past or assumptions that my track record is abysmal when it's the polar opposite.  That's fine, but please, for the people doing it don't expect me to engage them on anything even approaching a regular basis.  Since most of them cannot control themselves as such, I take it upon myself to put them on ignore, then they get angry and throw out other challenges that I can't see etc.  I mean honestly, talk about being OCD.  

 

You and I get into heated exchanges, but you don't do that.  I enjoy the back-n-forth generally speaking.  

 

Also, keep in mind, that I may respond to you, but in the meantime I may reply to someone else where the context isn't quite the same, but in the same thread those replies can easily be erroneously merged such that misunderstandings arise, which is why I prefer to weed out much of that "noise" and which is why I much prefer independent discussion via PMs or e-mails or whatever.   Unfortunately most people prefer the glass house and mob scene that is the forum, so if you want to discuss there isn't much choice.  

 

Strangely, most of the people I've engaged with in the past in that way simply don't care anymore.  When I call them to talk they don't even really know what's going on with the team anymore, they've dropped off and are in "show me" mode.  I am too but I love analysis.  

 

I've really gotta run and get some biz stuff done, but I'm eager to read from that link.  I'll get back to you.  Perhaps PM if you don't mind.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

18 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Has anyone else wondered about the possibility of sending a pick to Jacksonville for their Yannick Nsgsjgksdbgkjsfgbkjgfnjk? I feel like with Campbell and now Allen, he's a bit of an odd man out who will be wanting some cash money while they have none. 

 

......way too costly to fit that name on a damn uniform....would need two rows.............

[Ronin]

28 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

 

 

Am I mistaken, I just took a peek, unless I'm missing something that thread ends with the last post being before that Draft even happened. 

 

I don't care about your takes on a variety of undrafted players, specifically I'm only interested in the players we drafted in rounds 1-3, days 1 & 2.  

 

Check me if I'm wrong.  

 

As well, don't take this wrong, but I also don't have time to scour 24 pages for two or three of your posts.  

 

There used to be a way, perhaps a long time ago, where one could search someone else's post by date.  I always look for draft stuff within the first two or three days after a draft.  When I searched on yours it only went back about three months.  Am I not doing something right in searching?  Is there another way to find dated posts by someone?  

 

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Ronin

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

He absolutely had 10 in 2014. There was a misattribution of a sack in the final game against the Pats, but the official scorers ultimately (and correctly) credited him with the half-sack (he was the lead guy on the sack). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HughJe99.htm and http://www.nfl.com/player/jerryhughes/496796/profile. ESPN is wrong. Here's the box score: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201412280nwe.htm.

 

We are talking a half a sack here, and that was still 5 seasons ago.  And he’s averaged 5 sacks in the 4 seasons since that season and 5.2 sacks over his 9 year career.  So if he hits 12+ this year, that qualifies as a breakout from a guy averaging 5 in my book.  

[thebandit27]

14 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

Am I mistaken, I just took a peek, unless I'm missing something that thread ends with the last post being before that Draft even happened. 

 

I don't care about your takes on a variety of undrafted players, specifically I'm only interested in the players we drafted in rounds 1-3, days 1 & 2.  

 

Check me if I'm wrong.  

 

As well, don't take this wrong, but I also don't have time to scour 24 pages for two or three of your posts.  

 

There used to be a way, perhaps a long time ago, where one could search someone else's post by date.  I always look for draft stuff within the first two or three days after a draft.  When I searched on yours it only went back about three months.  Am I not doing something right in searching?  Is there another way to find dated posts by someone?  

 

 

 

There's about 3 full pages of Ragland discussion in that thread alone.  Not sure why my post-draft posts (which I can't find) need to be provided to prove that I didn't change my mind when the Bills picked him.

 

I don't bother with what people say post-draft about a prospect...people tend to let the lens of the when/where a guy is selected color their view of the prospect.  Not me.  If I say a guy is one thing before he's drafted, then I'm not going to reverse course 2 months later because a certain team picked him in a certain round.

 

Perfect example: I say that I like Robbie Anderson as a 3rd round pick pre-draft, then he goes undrafted and gets signed by one of the worst-run organizations in the game.  I'm standing by my evaluation because I saw what I saw.  Does that mean I'm going to be right? No. It means that I stand by what I saw.

 

Same goes for Dak Prescott.  I had him as an UDFA because I didn't like his work in the pocket or his throwing mechanics.  He went in the 4th round to a team with Will McClay running their draft board.  McClay is, IMO, the best personnel guy in the NFL.  I don't change my evaluation because I saw what I saw.  Here we are 3 years later, and it turns out I'm dead wrong on Dak.  McClay was right.

[Victory Formation]

I think Shaq Lawson will get 6+ sacks as well, could see him notch as many as 8 if everything goes his way. Many folks say he is leaving town, but I'm not so sure. Would like to see him stay on a team friendly deal.