How much is cole beasly really loving the bills?

[ROCBillsBeliever]

14 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

Maybe everyone's making excuses for Allen and blaming everything on everyone but Allen.  

 

Okay, Jeffismagic, we get it... we should have picked Mahomes ?

[Ronin]

3 minutes ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

Okay, Jeffismagic, we get it... we should have picked Mahomes ?

 

Not sure I see the relevance, but OK.  

 

I simply don't think we should have picked Allen.  Too risky, and those risks are currently playing out.  So anyone arguing to the contrary ignores that.  

 

Once again, this is a clinic on team-building.  This offense is the worst it's been in over a decade since Jauron under McD, another defensive-minded coach similar to Jauron, who also BTW had a specialization in the secondary.  The comps are uncanny.  

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

 

Prescott is top shelf mediocre.  That is still mediocre though.  

I don’t think he’ll ever be an elite guy but if Allen has this start to his career, we’d cream ourselves.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01.htm

 

and I love the Cole pickup but let’s be honest. He came because of money and that’s fine.  

[CincyBillsFan]

21 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

I'm huge on Edmunds.  And yes, I could.  Unfortunately for your argument I'm not running around talking about him as if he's headed for all-pro status this or next season while slamming anyone that says something to the contrary, am I now.  

 

Edmunds didn't come into the league with anywhere near the risks that Allen did.  He was also the youngest player in the league last season and still played admirably.  

 

He also wasn't one of the worst few LBs in the league last season now, was he?  

 

 

Are you seriously trying to compare the assessment & treatment of a QB to that of a middle LB?  Apples & oranges. 

 

*  First off I think Edmunds is going to be a great LB.  I liked that the Bills took a chance in picking Allen & Edmunds in  the 1st round last year.  To kick start this franchise out of it's long term mediocrity they needed to take chances and they did. 

 

*  Obviously Edmunds was a lower risk pick then Allen but not for the reason you think.  By definition 1st round selections of QB's are riskier then 1st round selections of LB's.  It goes with the position.  NFL QB is a fiendishly tough thing to be good at.

 

*  Yes Edmunds was the youngest player in the NFL which in and of itself was somewhat risky.  And yes he did play very well AT TIMES.  At other times he looked clueless out there and played horribly.  People who know football didn't jump all over him for that because he was ONLY A rookie.  Like Allen, Edmunds flashed signs of greatness and left us with a good deal of optimism about his play next year. 

 

*  I don't know where Edmunds ranked overall as a LB last year.  Unlike QB's who can be analyzed to death and "ranked" according to a myriad of stats, LB's simply aren't evaluated in the same way.   All I can say is that to me watching both of them play, there were similarities in that they each looked all world at times and at other times they both looked awful.  That's what being a rookie is all about.

 

One final note.  It's hard for amateurs like you or me (yes we are amateurs here) to get down in the weeds and really judge these guys.  Unfortunately for QB's there are all these numbers that anybody can look at and pretend they know what they're talking about.  What numbers or video review can we use to evaluate a LB in the same way we think we can evaluate a QB?   

[eball]

On 6/22/2019 at 8:13 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Reminds me of when McCoy came to the Bills b*tchin about Chip Kelly and the Eagles.   Jilted talk.   

 

 

 

Good point!  Chip sure showed LeSean who's boss!

[4merper4mer]

51 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

It is what I'm doing, I'm sorry that you see it otherwise.  I'm also sorry that it seems to affect you so personally.  That's unfortunate.  

 

I'm huge on Edmunds.  And yes, I could.  Unfortunately for your argument I'm not running around talking about him as if he's headed for all-pro status this or next season while slamming anyone that says something to the contrary, am I now.  

 

Edmunds didn't come into the league with anywhere near the risks that Allen did.  He was also the youngest player in the league last season and still played admirably.  

 

He also wasn't one of the worst few LBs in the league last season now, was he?  

 

The bottom line is quite simple.  McD inherited a team that ranked 10th and 12th in scoring under Ryan, who sucked, and 15th and 16th in scoring D in the two seasons prior to his arrival.  Under him the offense has ranked 22nd and 30th, having descended as such, and the D has ranked 18th in scoring D.  If that offense doesn't get well into the teens this season I don't see how he can possibly remain on.  If that doesn't happen it'll be all but entirely because Allen doesn't turn into the QB that so many here are talking about, not because Edmunds didn't step up. 

 

 

 

BTW, see the post above.  

 

And to add some additional perspective here, the offense ranked both 30th in yards as well as scoring.  The last time that we had such low offensive rankings was under Jauron over a decade ago.  In the six seasons prior to McD's arrival, the team averaged 16th in scoring O, with no QBs worthy of note.  Taylor, Orton, Manuel, and Fitz.   

 

Even this season, if Allen can't outdo them as a 7th overall pick, well, that'll spell it out pretty well.  

 

 

 

Dear Captain Strawman,

 

I haven't claimed Allen is headed for All Pro nor have I slammed you for stating your opinion.  If I've slammed you at all it has been for your arrogant tone and Selective use of standards.

 

Also, I have not been impacted personally in any way whatsoever other than amusement at your self aggrandizing claims and over the top use of hyperbole.  

 

 

[eball]

55 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

I simply don't think we should have picked Allen.  Too risky, and those risks are currently playing out.  So anyone arguing to the contrary ignores that.  

 

Once again, this is a clinic on team-building.  This offense is the worst it's been in over a decade since Jauron under McD, another defensive-minded coach similar to Jauron, who also BTW had a specialization in the secondary.  The comps are uncanny.  

 

 

"Strange or mysterious, especially in an unsettling way."

 

Please explain what about the coaching history and tendencies of Jauron and McD fit this definition.

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

"Strange or mysterious, especially in an unsettling way."

 

Please explain what about the coaching history and tendencies of Jauron and McD fit this definition.

You really don’t see the similarities?  I think McDermott is a more aggressive defensive coach but I believe he has a similar mindset in how he wants to win games.  He’s conservative and not a risk taker.  He has been terrible on challenges and we have penalty problems.  We also have a tendency to get blown out a lot.  

 

I think McDermott, like Jauron, would be fine if he has a really good OC and Qb and can just concentrate on defense.  I guess we’ll see if we have those because that killed Jauron.

19 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Good point!  Chip sure showed LeSean who's boss!

In fairness, Chip Kelly won 10 game in his first 2 seasons.  He should have never been the GM. 

1 hour ago, Ronin said:

 

Not sure I see the relevance, but OK.  

 

I simply don't think we should have picked Allen.  Too risky, and those risks are currently playing out.  So anyone arguing to the contrary ignores that.  

 

Once again, this is a clinic on team-building.  This offense is the worst it's been in over a decade since Jauron under McD, another defensive-minded coach similar to Jauron, who also BTW had a specialization in the secondary.  The comps are uncanny.  

That’s where I’m at on Allen too.  I think it was a risky pick based on a lot of history for an organization that sucks at developing qbs.  I mean if we had Andy Reid or Sean McVay, it’s one thing.  

[Ronin]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Are you seriously trying to compare the assessment & treatment of a QB to that of a middle LB?  Apples & oranges. 

 

No, so take it up with 4merper4mer.  

 

Quote

 

*  First off I think Edmunds is going to be a great LB.  I liked that the Bills took a chance in picking Allen & Edmunds in  the 1st round last year.  To kick start this franchise out of it's long term mediocrity they needed to take chances and they did. 

 

*  Obviously Edmunds was a lower risk pick then Allen but not for the reason you think.  By definition 1st round selections of QB's are riskier then 1st round selections of LB's.  It goes with the position.  NFL QB is a fiendishly tough thing to be good at.

 

 

I am and have been very bullish on Edmunds.  My opinions on him were also very well stated PRIOR TO the Draft.  We have similar views on Edmunds. 

 

My opinions on Allen were also well and unmistakably stated well PRIOR TO the Draft.  I would be insincere/dishonest if they had changed after we drafted him.  I'm just curious tho, and I don't expect an honest answer to this question, but if another team like the Jets or Fins had drafted Allen instead, would everyone here be just as bullish on him.  It's rhetorical at this point, but given the opinions on both Darnold and Jackson, who both had better passing metrics in similar situations, that's at least one data point there.  

 

Otherwise, Edmunds was not the same risk because Allen essentially cost us four day 1 & 2 picks with which we could have revamped our O.  Edmunds could easily have been had with our 12th overall, which was my option.  That necessarily presents a much bigger risk when you trade away all those picks for one player.  

 

And yes, 1st-round QBs are riskier than other positions, which IMO as an analyst, means that it's not a good idea to assume more than the inherent risks as such like we did.  

 

Quote

*  I don't know where Edmunds ranked overall as a LB last year.  Unlike QB's who can be analyzed to death and "ranked" according to a myriad of stats, LB's simply aren't evaluated in the same way.   All I can say is that to me watching both of them play, there were similarities in that they each looked all world at times and at other times they both looked awful.  That's what being a rookie is all about.

 

Well, you could start by comparing his production to other players.  I'm usually the one that does that here so I may as well do it again.  Off the cuff and even before knowing how it will shake out I'll use Kuechly, my favorite current MLB, in comparison.  

 

Edmunds ranked 21 in solo tackles, 13 behind LK who ranked 6th.  

Edmunds ranked tied for 13th in combined tackles, 9 behind 8th-ranked LK. 

Edmunds ranked poorly in TFLs.  LK ranked well. 

Edmunds ranked tied for 20th in PDs, LK ranked poorly like Edmunds did in TFLs.  

Edmunds had 2 INTs to LK's 1.  If you did your homework on Edmunds as a rookie you'd have known that his pass defense skills were very good, particularly for a MLB.  

Edmunds ranked 11th for assisted tackles, LK ranked tied for 18th.  

Edmunds had 12 PDs to LK's 6.  

Edmunds had 7 QB Hits to LK's 5.  Granted, rushing the passer isn't the primary role of a MLB.  

Both had 2 FFs.  

 

I don't care how you slice it, that's competitive.  We cannot say the same thing for Allen re: his passing.  It was only better than Rosen's.  

 

Strangely, Allen's passing metrics blow chunks.  While they seem to have mattered for Taylor, Manuel, and Fitzpatrick, now all of a sudden here they're a cut above irrelevant.  At least I can state unwaveringly that I'm consistent in my analytical methodologies.  

 

Quote

One final note.  It's hard for amateurs like you or me (yes we are amateurs here) to get down in the weeds and really judge these guys.  Unfortunately for QB's there are all these numbers that anybody can look at and pretend they know what they're talking about.  What numbers or video review can we use to evaluate a LB in the same way we think we can evaluate a QB?

 

I don't think it's that hard.  It's hard if people don't run comparisons and look up data, like most don't.  Most simply allow unchallenged narratives to form and then flock like sheep to line up behind those narratives.  Works for politics, sports, and many other things in life.  I analyze professionally.  I'd also put my past analyses re: our players up against anyone in the business.  My record stands for itself.  You didn't here ANYONE anywhere else telling you that Spiller's (as one mere example) skills from Clemson didn't line up well in the NFL, and the same for Watkins and his bubble screens.  EVERYONE contradicted me.  So what, I got lucky?  I don't think so.  Again, to name a mere two examples.  Same for Zay Jones if we want to get more recent.  

 

Even you just implied that there's no way of analyzing Edmunds, for which I took about five minutes, ... OK, maybe 7 or 8, did a quick lookup and sort and came up with the above.  Why can't anyone else do that?  Short answer:  they can, the vast majority of people simply don't and won't.  It's much easier to simply latch onto popular narratives and be optimistic.  Ignorance is bliss, eh.  

 

As I said, my takes on Allen and Edmunds were both there WELL BEFORE that Draft.  I would be insincere/dishonest if I had changed them following the draft, meaning that there's obviously no agenda as many seem to want to believe.  

 

 

 

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Ronin

[eball]

11 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You really don’t see the similarities?  I think McDermott is a more aggressive defensive coach but I believe he has a similar mindset in how he wants to win games.  He’s conservative and not a risk taker.  He has been terrible on challenges and we have penalty problems.  We also have a tendency to get blown out a lot.  

 

 

You "believe" he has a similar mindset?  Has McD really proven to be a conservative coach?  You can cherry pick a play or two all day but it certainly wasn't "conservative" to bench Tyrod for Peterman.  Let's see how McD's gameday management changes as he has more confidence in his offense.

 

The challenge thing is overblown.  I think a lot of times, particularly when you know you're out-manned, you may challenge a close call in the hope it gives your team a break.  Again, once McD has confidence in his offense I'd like to see how much he utilizes the challenge system.

 

I agree that McD needs to improve on things like clock management.

 

I don't see a Jauron clone.  Not for a second.

[Ronin]

29 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Dear Captain Strawman,

 

I haven't claimed Allen is headed for All Pro nor have I slammed you for stating your opinion.  If I've slammed you at all it has been for your arrogant tone and Selective use of standards.

 

Also, I have not been impacted personally in any way whatsoever other than amusement at your self aggrandizing claims and over the top use of hyperbole. 

 

OK, goodbye.  If I don't respond to you in the future it's because I've put you on ignore.  I don't see much that you  argue that has merit.  Seems all personally charged to me.  

 

[Ronin]

42 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You really don’t see the similarities?  I think McDermott is a more aggressive defensive coach but I believe he has a similar mindset in how he wants to win games.  He’s conservative and not a risk taker.  He has been terrible on challenges and we have penalty problems.  We also have a tendency to get blown out a lot.  

 

I think McDermott, like Jauron, would be fine if he has a really good OC and Qb and can just concentrate on defense.  I guess we’ll see if we have those because that killed Jauron.

 

In fairness, Chip Kelly won 10 game in his first 2 seasons.  He should have never been the GM. 

That’s where I’m at on Allen too.  I think it was a risky pick based on a lot of history for an organization that sucks at developing qbs.  I mean if we had Andy Reid or Sean McVay, it’s one thing.  

 

Re: Jauron vs. McD, those that don't want to see it won't.  

 

Both haled from the defensive secondary in terms of experience and "growth" in coaching.  Both built teams from the secondary on inward when the conventional wisdom clearly says build from the lines, on both sides out.  I definitely don't see McD doing that.  Our DL is all but a shambles Oliver pending.  None of the players that he's brought in have helped it significantly.  Offensively he's done next to nothing in two years for the OL and we're going to be seeing very soon that these "new and improved' OL-men brought on, as well as Morse with his injury risks, really aren't much better than last year's OL, at least in terms of pass-protection.  Same thing there, none of the players that he's brought in have offered any significant help much less upgrades.  If anything both lines have gotten worse on McD's watch.  

 

There are a few other similarities but at this point it's just pissing into the wind.  

 

Allen was a risky pick because the known issues with him are also known to be very difficult to coach into a player.   Of course our smarter-by-half methods know better.  

 

On that note, so whom does McD get to coach those things into Allen?  Dorsey, from Carolina of course.  Heck, we're almost like Carolina's triple-A team.  

 

But what's Dorsey's track record?  Newton's not a good passer.  His stats are slightly below average.  But here's the thing, Newton has hardly overachieved from college as a former 1st overall pick, in fact it could be argued that he's underachieved.  His Jr. and last season at Auburn was world's better than Allen's was, he lit up Saban's Alabama and played a very good game vs. Oregon's very tough defense in his bowl game.  Allen has never had anything close to that in a game like that.  In fact, against similar caliber teams Allen actually played worse than undrafted QBs if not worse than any in his entire draft class outright.  That should be significant and anyone drafting Allen should have looked at and considered it.  We can assume that they did, which raises questions as to their smarter-by-half methods even more.  

 

If anything I'd say that Newton and therefore Dorsey have underachieved.   The fact that we pulled him from Carolina doesn't really suggest that we scoured the planet looking for the best option for Allen.  Looks more like a "former connection" than anything else.  

 

And believe me, as a Canes fan I love Dorsey who was the best Canes QB ever.  He couldn't play in the NFL tho and I simply dont' see much evidence that he's anything better than a run-of-the-mill QB coach.  I mean the guy failed, miserably, in the NFL, so what's he got to impart to Allen.  What, "here's how I did it, you should do the same."  LOL  

 

 

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Ronin

[eball]

50 minutes ago, Ronin said:

Re: Jauron vs. McD, those that don't want to see it won't.  

 

Both haled from the defensive secondary in terms of experience and "growth" in coaching.  Both built teams from the secondary on inward when the conventional wisdom clearly says build from the lines, on both sides out.  I definitely don't see McD doing that.  Our DL is all but a shambles Oliver pending.  None of the players that he's brought in have helped it significantly.  Offensively he's done next to nothing in two years for the OL and we're going to be seeing very soon that these "new and improved' OL-men brought on, as well as Morse with his injury risks, really aren't much better than last year's OL, at least in terms of pass-protection.  Same thing there, none of the players that he's brought in have offered any significant help much less upgrades.  If anything both lines have gotten worse on McD's watch.  

 

There are a few other similarities but at this point it's just pissing into the wind. 

 

DL is a shambles? Hughes is a stud, Star is solid (despite what others say), Phillips is a rising sophomore with lots of potential, and Oliver could be a game-changer.  Murphy is one year removed from an ACL and supposedly in great shape.  Shaq had a decent season last year and is playing for a contract.  Jordan Phillips is a quality rotational DT.  Hardly a "shambles."

 

Nothing to help OL?  Drafted Dawkins and Ford in 2nd round.  Drafted Teller last year.  Did McD anticipate Wood's injury and Incognito's meltdown?  Gee, I guess not, shame on him.

 

The reason you don't post these "other similarities" is because they don't exist.  The "McD is another Jauron" theme is a lazy one espoused by those who don't know what they're talking about.

[Matt_In_NH]

On 6/22/2019 at 8:58 PM, Ronin said:

Well, unless Allen makes a monster leap in his play, Prescott last season was worlds better than Allen.  

 

Here's my big concern, Allen's passing strengths don't lie where Beasley typically caught the ball in Dallas, in fact the opposite, those areas were Allen's biggest weakness last year.  

 

So whether that changes remains to be seen, but talking in the offseason much less the preseason I'm not sure accomplishes much, particularly in Buffalo where we've been offseason and preseason champs for years.  

 

We'll see how Beasley works out, but they don't need him deep.  As it is, he only caught four deep passes last season and the gains were only 18, 19, 21, 21, and 32.  

 

 

Yeah, I share your concern.  There seems to be a lot of people who have no concern and think Allen is refined.....his "catchable balls" are right up there and his completion % issue is only due to the other players on the Bills offense last year.   The high end of production to expect/hope for out of Beasley is something like 2018 Zay Jones numbers....maybe a few more catches.  There seems to be a disproportionate amount of excitement about Beasley compared to what his past production/value are.

[4merper4mer]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

That’s where I’m at on Allen too.  I think it was a risky pick based on a lot of history for an organization that sucks at developing qbs.  I mean if we had Andy Reid or Sean McVay, it’s one thing.  

Shirley you can't be serious.  Unless you're talking about helmets and jerseys instead of coaches and GMs, then this "organization" is developing its first QB prospect.  What history are you referencing?

 

By this logic they should never select a QB in the draft at all.  This means Cousins was the only play for them to have made.  Maybe Keenum?

[Rocky Landing]

3 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

OK, goodbye.  If I don't respond to you in the future it's because I've put you on ignore.  I don't see much that you  argue that has merit.  Seems all personally charged to me.  

 

Welcome to the club, 4merper4mer. 

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, Ronin said:

The bottom line is quite simple.  McD inherited a team that ranked 10th and 12th in scoring under Ryan, who sucked, and 15th and 16th in scoring D in the two seasons prior to his arrival.  Under him the offense has ranked 22nd and 30th, having descended as such, and the D has ranked 18th in scoring D.  If that offense doesn't get well into the teens this season I don't see how he can possibly remain on.  If that doesn't happen it'll be all but entirely because Allen doesn't turn into the QB that so many here are talking about, not because Edmunds didn't step up.

 

Man, your take here is one of the worst I have seen.  

1. McD inherited a team on offense that ranked decent because we had one of the top run games in the league (#1 even) behind a pretty good OL, a running QB and a Shady in his prime.  It was a terrible passing team.  
   1. You're using the scoring stats to somehow and try and paint those teams as if they were good...they were NOT an offense that was going to take us anywhere...PERIOD.
   2. Plus, our 3 best OL are gone from that top rushing attack - one via trade who was always hurt and the other 2 from retirement.  
2. McD inherited a team on defense that was WORSE than the rankings.  For someone who claims to know deeper research, you sure are flawed here. 
   1. In 2016 Tom Brady was suspended the first 4 games and Jimmy Garopollo got hurt and their 3rd string QB also hurt his throwing hand to the point that Edelman almost played QB for them.  Plus Gronk was also hurt.  We shut them out due to an ANOMALLY, not because our D was that good.  In fact, with Brady back later that season he hung 31 points on the same Bills defense.
   2. If you look at the other 15 games, we were 26th in the NFL in points allowed, and had Brady played week 4, he likely puts up 30+ on us too that week with would have bumped us down to 28th.  
   3. So you are categorically WRONG about the strength of our defense that McD inherited.  It was literally one of the worst in the NFL, but thanks to the freak anomaly due to EXTREME circumstances against NE, our end of season "rankings" got skewed and created a mirage of being middle of the pack on defense.  
   4. You also seem to forget Rex took over the NUMBER 4 RANKED defense in the NFL and totally wrecked it.  We SUBSTANTIALLY declined under Rex on defense.  

McD and Beane did the right thing and tore the house down, rebuilt our cap, and put this team now on a trajectory for SUSTAINED and consistent success.  The house Rex and Co built was crap and was going no where.  

 

Sorry man, but your takes on this are beyond off and wrong.  

Edited June 24, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

21 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

 

I realize that was the only play like that all season.  

 

Great, you found one play.  Congrats.  How about explaining this video then...thats over 5 minutes long and its just the dropped passes, not even the plays where our receivers ran bad routes, were physically dominated, weren't getting separation, etc.  

 

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[NewEra]

8 hours ago, K-9 said:

Are you Jerry Sullivan?

Lol.  That’s what I’m saying.  When it’s his reply I have to scroll down to see if I have enough time to read it. The answer is almost always no.  And after reading the entire reply, the majority of the reply has nothing to do with my main point which is usually disregarded 

Edited June 24, 2019 by NewEra

[ROCBillsBeliever]

7 hours ago, Ronin said:

Not sure I've seen the film, but OK. 

 

There... I fixed it for you.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

 

Prescott is top shelf mediocre.  That is still mediocre though.  

 

...yet they're talkin' $34 mil/year for mediocrity........go figure......

[ROCBillsBeliever]

18 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

I think that neither were good draft picks, Allen at 7th or Oliver at 9th.  I'd have made different picks.  In fact, I'd have had Wynn, Hilliard, and Risner on our OL right now and Drew Lock at QB, instead of those two for the same picks and I'd have gotten a couple of others too.  

 

Hey, Mods: please pin for future crucifixion. Thanks!

[Teddy KGB]

Ronin and Badol have pooped all over this thread with the hottest takes.   

 

Burn it ! 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Teddy KGB

[formerlyofCtown]

17 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...yet they're talkin' $34 mil/year for mediocrity........go figure......

We paid Tyrod 18 for low end mediocrity.  Its a QBs market.  Even if they arent worth it they will get it.

10 minutes ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

Hey, Mods: please pin for future crucifixion. Thanks!

The only time I get to read their brilliance is when others quote them.

 

I havent blocked Ronin yet.  Must be he offers valuable takes sometimes.

Edited June 24, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[formerlyofCtown]

18 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

Believe me, I hope I'm wrong too.  

 

Discussing what one sees and believes isn't necessarily what one wishes, contrary to the opinions of some here that seem to know more about posters than the posters themselves. Kind of like God.  

Youve discovered my true identity.  Have to change names.?

Edited June 24, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[CincyBillsFan]

6 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

 I'm just curious tho, and I don't expect an honest answer to this question, but if another team like the Jets or Fins had drafted Allen instead, would everyone here be just as bullish on him.  It's rhetorical at this point, but given the opinions on both Darnold and Jackson, who both had better passing metrics in similar situations, that's at least one data point there.  

 

 

 

 

I would not be as bullish on Allen if he was drafted by the Jets or Finns because like others, I would be judging the guy entirely by his stats.  And since I'm NOT a Jet's or Finns fan I would not have watched EVERY one of their games and concluded that the stats do not tell the whole story about Allen.  Nor would I have been as aware of the real improvement seen in Allen's game after he returned from injury.  I consider improvement in a rookie QB's play to be a much more important metric then most of the statistics being tossed around. 

 

It's because I did watch every one of Allen's snaps from scrimmage and I watched them with a high degree of interest as his success or failure is critical to the Bill's future, that I can be bullish on him. 

 

But I do have friends who are Jets fans and if they had sat me down and got me to watch Allen's highlights I would have been impressed.  And if Allen played on the Dolphins and had games against the Bills like he did against the Finns I would be very concerned that Miami had gotten themselves a hell of a QB.  And for the record, I hadn't seen much of Darnold until the Bills/Jets game and I came away impressed and believe he has a similar potential as Allen to be a very good QB.

 

One final point is that I had watched several of Allen's games when he was in college.  I used to love watching those Mountain West games on late ESPN and I came away impressed with Allen.  It was obvious he needed a lot of work but he made throws I had never seen a QB make at any level of football.  I even thought wouldn't it be cool if the Bills could grab him in the 4th round.   So I do have a bias in favor of the guy.  Of course my bigger bias is in favor of the Buffalo Bills who will be in deep trouble if Allen turns out to be a bust. 

 

Oh and the fact we ended paying a much higher price for Allen then a 4th round pick is irrelevant IF he becomes a franchise level QB.  

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, mattynh said:

 

 

Yeah, I share your concern.  There seems to be a lot of people who have no concern and think Allen is refined.....his "catchable balls" are right up there and his completion % issue is only due to the other players on the Bills offense last year.   The high end of production to expect/hope for out of Beasley is something like 2018 Zay Jones numbers....maybe a few more catches.  There seems to be a disproportionate amount of excitement about Beasley compared to what his past production/value are.

 

I'm not hearing this at all on 2BD.  Seriously who is posting that Allen is "refined"?  His "supporters" on 2BD  constantly point out that Allen needs to improve in his passing game.  We think the guy is a raw talent with a huge upside.  We tend to be optimistic becasue he showed flashes of greatness and the things he didn't do well can be LEARNED and CORRECTED.  This is the opposite of considering Allen to be a refined passer.  

 

And why shouldn't we be excited about Beasley?   He is by most accounts a top 3 NFL slot receiver.  His signing immediately upgraded our receiving core.  Ditto for the signing of Brown who gives us an EXPERIENCED deep threat to compliment a developing young deep threat in Foster. 

[Alphadawg7]

On 6/22/2019 at 5:58 PM, Ronin said:

Well, unless Allen makes a monster leap in his play, Prescott last season was worlds better than Allen.  

 

Here's my big concern, Allen's passing strengths don't lie where Beasley typically caught the ball in Dallas, in fact the opposite, those areas were Allen's biggest weakness last year.  

 

So whether that changes remains to be seen, but talking in the offseason much less the preseason I'm not sure accomplishes much, particularly in Buffalo where we've been offseason and preseason champs for years.  

 

We'll see how Beasley works out, but they don't need him deep.  As it is, he only caught four deep passes last season and the gains were only 18, 19, 21, 21, and 32.  

 

Actually Allen made a lot of great passes in the areas where Cole would be running.  You realize Josh threw the ball 320 times, yet only 65 of them were in the air 20+ yards.  Some of you act like Cole is only running 6 yard routes lol.  Cole not only will be running routes all over the place under 20 yards, but will be a guy that can go up the seam too or a deep post as well at times.  

 

Either way, 80% of the passes Allen threw last year were in the areas where Cole will be working most of the time.  And Allen was a lot more accurate in that range than he was over 20+ yards despite your false claims Allen was better at the deep ball than the medium and short routes.  

 

So basically the premise of your entire argument is categorically wrong in thought, math and statistics.  Impressive, hard to pull off the trifecta like that, even on TSW.

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[CincyBillsFan]

7 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

 

My opinions on Allen were also well and unmistakably stated well PRIOR TO the Draft.  I would be insincere/dishonest if they had changed after we drafted him.  I'm just curious tho, and I don't expect an honest answer to this question, but if another team like the Jets or Fins had drafted Allen instead, would everyone here be just as bullish on him.  It's rhetorical at this point, but given the opinions on both Darnold and Jackson, who both had better passing metrics in similar situations, that's at least one data point there.  

 

 

 

I forgot to address this sentence which IMO is not correct.  While Darnold & Allen could be said to have played last year under "similar situations" the same CAN NOT be said about Jackson.  First, he didn't start until half way through the season giving him time to learn on the bench; 2nd Jackson played for a playoff caliber team with excellent TE's & O-line and a very effective running game.  IMO, If you put either Dranold or Allen on Baltimore last season they easily match what Jackson did and neither of them would have been shut down in the way Jackson & the Ravens offense was by SD in the playoffs.

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

54 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

We paid Tyrod 18 for low end mediocrity.  Its a QBs market.  Even if they arent worth it they will get it.

The only time I get to read their brilliance is when others quote them.

 

I havent blocked Ronin yet.  Must be he offers valuable takes sometimes.

 

...so where the hell do I sign up?......I'd be unequivocally "the bottom of the barrel" so I'll take $2 mil....fair enough??,,,,,,,,,

[3rdand12]

so many things factor in to the discussion . 

Cole is a big addition to a questionable WR group last year.  Shaky O line and Rookie QB learning on the fly.

 no reason at all to not see the positives from the offseason and the potential successes to come.

Bills put huge effort into improving Allens World. why not think they will show rewards ?

[Alphadawg7]

On 6/23/2019 at 1:19 PM, NewCastleFanBills said:

Allen didn't have a slot WR that was where he was supposed to be, when he was needed to be there. Allen threw away a ton of passes due to that fact. Having a player like Cole B, will add to Allen's completion percentage. Prescott had his numbers because WRs were open, and where they were needed to be on time.

 

Good post! 

 

Its astonishing to me how the "he's inaccurate" crowd glosses over the volume of passes Allen threw away under duress from a terrible OL or when our Receivers struggled to get separation and get open.  

 

In fact, lets put Josh Allens comp % in REAL perspective.  Josh ONLY needed to complete 23 more of his attempts last year to have had over a 60% completion rate.  And that was during a rookie year, with terrible supporting cast and a terrible OL.  

 

If the OL this year can help Josh throw less passes away and our WRs just drop less passes, he would get to 60% completion even with little to no improvement from the Josh that played the final 6 weeks.

 

So this whole thing about last year is silly, it really is, especially given he was a raw rookie with terrible support from his receivers, TEs, RBs and OL.  Did he miss a throw here and there he want to see him make, YUP...SO DO ALL QB's, including the best.  But because the combination of the dropped passes, great throws over turned by dumb penalties, and the terrible OL...we saw Josh's comp % take a hit and some want to put it all on Allen as if he is solely responsible.  

 

He was more accurate than his comp % stated, and it only takes 2 eyes to see that.  Cole Beasley is going to be a great addition to this team, and he doesn't have to have a 1000 yard season for him to be a great asset to Josh and his development.  

[Fred Slacks]

I can’t recall what game specifically it was last season but Josh Allen made a first down throw on 3rd and about 6. The play got called back for holding. Next play was 3rd and 16 and Josh’s allen came back and hit a deep outside comeback for a first down again. The play got called back again for holding. For me that was the defining moment when I knew Josh Allen can play this game.  The first was him converting with his arm instead of running. The second was him converting with his arm on what would normally be a throw short and punt it for field position. The kid can play. I don’t post here often but I read every day on these threads. Ronin’s argument that the new OL additions with husband pFF ratings is in accurate to say the least. If you go to 2017 PFF ratings Spencer Long grades out very well at guard. Now healthy one can assume upgrade at LG, C and with Ford/Neschke (I cant spell it) at RT this line is upgraded for sure. Significantly?  Not necessarily. Upgraded?  Definitely. I’m of the opinion that if JA gets a half second more in the pocket or a full second then we will see him hit 58-60% completion. If we get him more time than that he will be pushing 65%. During OTA’s they were throwing swing passes close to half the snaps on offense. That alone will help increase his completion percentage. A halfway decent run offense (which the slightly-moderately upgraded O line will help provide) will help allen as well in his development. 

 

How is someone watched Allen last season and is unable to recognize his improvement over the last 5-6 games of the season is beyond me. They need to rewatch the games. Don’t look at the stats. The ball is placed just fine. A few times it’s placed incredibly well. 

 

Oh yeah WR is upgraded too. Not dominant but definitely adequate. This should be a fun season. I think 10-6 is realistic. 11-5 very possible. 

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...so where the hell do I sign up?......I'd be unequivocally "the bottom of the barrel" so I'll take $2 mil....fair enough??,,,,,,,,,

Lol.  NFL minimum rookie minimum is $480K I believe

[billspro]

On 6/23/2019 at 3:11 PM, Ronin said:

 

 

I realize that was the only play like that all season.  

 

I’m pretty sure Zay Jones said that play was his fault. That play doesn’t really show separation skills imo. 

[billspro]

On 6/23/2019 at 3:44 PM, Ronin said:

 

BTW, here's 9 plays in the Detroit game whereby primarily slot receivers (whomever they were) were more than open enough, sometimes wide-open, and Allen either didn't see them or was simply ignoring them looking for the homerun ball.  This notion that our receivers, slot or otherwise, could never or rarely get open is utter nonsense.  Also notice, if you watch the entire video, that Allen really isn't  under any particular pressure, certainly nothing that the average NFL QB doesn't face every Sunday.  Likewise, average NFL QBs make most of those throws resulting in completions.

 

1:00 - Allen has McKenzie wide-open on the right but for whatever inexplicable reason doesn't see him.  OL/blocking was fantastic.  

 

1:10 - He misses (doesn't see apparently) Foster who's wide open down a seam if he hits him in stride. 

 

1:26 - He's got Thompson (from the slot) open if he leads him.  

 

1:57 - He's got the RB open for an easy 5+ on 1-n-10 but doesn't see or hit him.  

 

3:05 - He's got Croom open on the release 

 

3:15 - He's got McCloud open on the break on the right and Croom is a good yard-plus ahead of his coverage on the left.  Good QBs make those throws.  

 

4:15 - Not slot, but he's got Ford wide-open on his break for an easy 5+ on 1-n-10, instead looks downfield incomplete.  Again, you've gotta take what the D gives you, Allen's always looking for a home-run.  

 

4:30 - Take your choice, right (Clay) or left (Ford), slot receivers open on either side on 2-n-10, either one for an easy 5+ w/ no coverage setting up no worse than a 3rd-n-short.  Instead Allen once again, looking for the homerun, goes deep/incomplete setting up a 3rd-n-long.  

 

4:49 - Here again, Allen waits and waves off Clay on the right who's wide-open for a decent gain on 1-n-15 or DiMarco on the left for a lesser gain.  Granted, he completed downfield to Foster, but again, instead of taking what the D gives him, Allen waits, that time it worked out, above it did not.  

 

 

 

It' simply not true that no one was ever open underneath or in the flats.  It's an excuse that fans have levied which has become a false narrative giving Allen an out.  Look, I get it, everyone wants Allen to work out, so do I, but reality is reality.  

 

Look at the video above and tell me with a straight face that none of those receivers were open, it's ridiculous.  

 

We'll see how much Beasley "being open" in areas where Allen simply didn't look to last year makes the kind of difference being talked about here.  

 

He needs to take more short throws, no argument there. The Bills had the worst WR core in the league last year. There are advanced WR stats showing their separation in the bottom 5. Were there plays they were open? sure. Did Allen look for the homerun ball far too often? Yes. That will be one of the easiest things to fix, especially when you add a WR like Beasley. Really all Allen needs to do is take the short throws the defence is giving him and he will become an elite QB, he has all the talent in the world. 

Edited June 25, 2019 by billspro

[Ronin]

9 hours ago, mattynh said:

 

 

Yeah, I share your concern.  There seems to be a lot of people who have no concern and think Allen is refined.....his "catchable balls" are right up there and his completion % issue is only due to the other players on the Bills offense last year.   The high end of production to expect/hope for out of Beasley is something like 2018 Zay Jones numbers....maybe a few more catches.  There seems to be a disproportionate amount of excitement about Beasley compared to what his past production/value are.

 

Presumably you meant his "uncatchable balls" where he was worse than all the rookies and DFL in the league.  

 

He ranked 35th of 35, and was so far below-average that it's almost unfathomable.  

 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Ronin

[Ronin]

5 hours ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

Hey, Mods: please pin for future crucifixion. Thanks!

 

Yes, please, pin this.  

 

ROC, why don't you go take a good hard look at my takes on Watkins, Manuel, Spiller, Lawson, Ragland, Zay Jones, and a bunch of others.  

 

I GUARANTEE you some have but needless to say, my takes on them weren't reposted.  Funny how that works.  

 

But yes, please, pin this.  

 

4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I would not be as bullish on Allen if he was drafted by the Jets or Finns because like others, I would be judging the guy entirely by his stats.  And since I'm NOT a Jet's or Finns fan I would not have watched EVERY one of their games and concluded that the stats do not tell the whole story about Allen.  Nor would I have been as aware of the real improvement seen in Allen's game after he returned from injury.  I consider improvement in a rookie QB's play to be a much more important metric then most of the statistics being tossed around. 

 

It's because I did watch every one of Allen's snaps from scrimmage and I watched them with a high degree of interest as his success or failure is critical to the Bill's future, that I can be bullish on him. 

 

But I do have friends who are Jets fans and if they had sat me down and got me to watch Allen's highlights I would have been impressed.  And if Allen played on the Dolphins and had games against the Bills like he did against the Finns I would be very concerned that Miami had gotten themselves a hell of a QB.  And for the record, I hadn't seen much of Darnold until the Bills/Jets game and I came away impressed and believe he has a similar potential as Allen to be a very good QB.

 

One final point is that I had watched several of Allen's games when he was in college.  I used to love watching those Mountain West games on late ESPN and I came away impressed with Allen.  It was obvious he needed a lot of work but he made throws I had never seen a QB make at any level of football.  I even thought wouldn't it be cool if the Bills could grab him in the 4th round.   So I do have a bias in favor of the guy.  Of course my bigger bias is in favor of the Buffalo Bills who will be in deep trouble if Allen turns out to be a bust. 

 

Oh and the fact we ended paying a much higher price for Allen then a 4th round pick is irrelevant IF he becomes a franchise level QB.  

 

Correct, IF.  

 

We'll see.  But if not, then I envision no scenario where McBeane are kept on, meaning we'll be back at the proverbial "square one" like we've been for years.  

 

Again, RISKY.  Very.  There were far less risky approaches to make us better.  That's the ultimate goal here, to make us playoff competitive.  

[Ronin]

4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I forgot to address this sentence which IMO is not correct.  While Darnold & Allen could be said to have played last year under "similar situations" the same CAN NOT be said about Jackson.  First, he didn't start until half way through the season giving him time to learn on the bench; 2nd Jackson played for a playoff caliber team with excellent TE's & O-line and a very effective running game.  IMO, If you put either Dranold or Allen on Baltimore last season they easily match what Jackson did and neither of them would have been shut down in the way Jackson & the Ravens offense was by SD in the playoffs.

 

Don't take this personally, but I'm not using your opinion, I'm using hard data.  That's exactly the problem in this place, opinions trump facts and hard data.  

 

Until week 17 Allen was DFL by a country mile in the Red Zone even well behind Rosen.  It was only after that Fins game, one game, where he essentially doubled his RZ stats that rendered him comparable to Rosen.  

 

He was ranked 35th of 35 in uncatchable passes.  That means he ranked behind Jackson, Darnold, Mayfield, and yes, even Rosen as such.  Statistically he ranked essentially right alongside Rosen.  

 

Whether or not it's your or anyone's opinion is irrelevant.  It's not my opinion either, it's facts and hard data that I'm basing my arguments on.  Anything to the contrary at this point, ANYTHING, is pure speculation.  The rest is nothing more than excuses.  We all get it, only a minority portion of Allen's issues actually had to do with him, the rest was the fault of the coaches, team, other players, etc.  

 

Great news however, our OL is now well above average, we finally have stud WRs, and Daboll's going to fix the rest.  So we're good.  

 

 

 

 

[Ronin]

37 minutes ago, billspro said:

I’m pretty sure Zay Jones said that play was his fault. That play doesn’t really show separation skills imo. 

 

Jones has no separation skills.  He didn't in college either.  

 

Anyone that didn't do their homework on him prior to drafting him, shame on them. 

 

From nfl.com's draft profile on Jones: 

 

WEAKNESSES

 Play speed is very average. Lacks vertical push to force cornerbacks to open and run early and doesn't have second gear to separate from coverage down the field. Thin frame. Struggles to find clean releases against press coverage due to play strength and foot quickness. High-volume production helped by high percentage of short throws and wide receiver screens. Sticky out of breaks and unable to shake tight coverage. Limited amount of burst and wiggle after the catch and won't create much more than is there. Not overly-committed as a run blocker.

 

Keep in mind, that was largely against defensive backs that aren't starting for any NFL team today.  

 

Either way, who did their homework, read that, and decided that Jones would be able to get separation in the NFL? 

Is that a wise take realizing that a player will be henceforth facing DBs far faster than the ones that he couldn't separate from to begin with?  

 

I know that I heeded it, and combined with Jones playing in formations that simply weren't used in the NFL, against inferior competition contrasted with the types of players that make it to the NFL, and in situations, namely garbage time, that saw him load up on gawdy numbers, often against second-teams, that was more than enough for me to come to a firm assessment.  That was one of the easier ones I've ever done with the least time effort in fact.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Ronin