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Who are the Bills' most likely picks at 9? (Excellent Cover 1 article, now unlocked)


Logic

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10 minutes ago, JM57 said:

The Bills brass flew to Wyoming for Allen's private workout last year. We didn't know it happened until after they picked him, but they definitely went to him. 

I don't dislike Wilkins as a player. I do dislike that he'll be 24 before this season ends. That means he's signing his second deal at 28. Some guys are signing their second deal at the age he's being drafted at.

Agreed.  It’s the biggest reason why I don’t think he’s worth the 9th pick.  If he was 21, I’d be all about it

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55 minutes ago, FLFan said:

Despite that fact that many fans cannot seem to get switching Edmunds position out of their heads, Turner is right about this.  The Bills love Edmunds at MLB and are not drafting his replacement.  Silly talk.

 

I think you get the BPA.  Both Edmunds and White have the ability to play anywhere.  You just don't pass on a talent like White because you have a similar player.  We have a dominant LB corp for years with White.  Then get a DL (Simmons) a bit later.  BOOM.   

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14 minutes ago, JM57 said:

The Bills brass flew to Wyoming for Allen's private workout last year. We didn't know it happened until after they picked him, but they definitely went to him. 

I don't dislike Wilkins as a player. I do dislike that he'll be 24 before this season ends. That means he's signing his second deal at 28. Some guys are signing their second deal at the age he's being drafted at.

It was reported before they drafted him. But they brought him in to OBD as well. 

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27 minutes ago, JM57 said:

The Bills brass flew to Wyoming for Allen's private workout last year. We didn't know it happened until after they picked him, but they definitely went to him. 

That may be, but they also brought Allen to Buffalo for an official visit which is what Turner is basing his list of possibilities off of.

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I usually like Cover 1's analysis, but, I am struggling with this part of the article:

 

So if the Bills stay at nine and are on the clock, I believe the board of best players available will be:

  1. DT Quinnen Williams
  2. DT Ed Oliver
  3. TE TJ Hockenson
  4. OT Jonah Williams
  5. LB Devin Bush
  6. OT Jawaan Taylor

I REALLY want these to be our options at 9 but I would be amazed if any of Q Williams/Oliver/Taylor and J Williams were available, let alone ALL of them still being there. If this were true I imagine we will sprint to the table with Q Williams as our pick.

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1 minute ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I usually like Cover 1's analysis, but, I am struggling with this part of the article:

 

So if the Bills stay at nine and are on the clock, I believe the board of best players available will be:

  1. DT Quinnen Williams
  2. DT Ed Oliver
  3. TE TJ Hockenson
  4. OT Jonah Williams
  5. LB Devin Bush
  6. OT Jawaan Taylor

I REALLY want these to be our options at 9 but I would be amazed if any of Q Williams/Oliver/Taylor and J Williams were available, let alone ALL of them still being there. If this were true I imagine we will sprint to the table with Q Williams as our pick.


I don't think he's actually saying that all of those guys will be there at 9. I think he's saying that when the Bills' pick comes up at 9, if they don't trade back, this is the order in which they would take these players, depending who is available. No one really expects Williams or Oliver to still be there, so he concludes that the pick will be Hockenson. If Hockenson were gone, as well, they'd pick Jonah Williams, and so on. Again, I'm quite certain he's not saying these guys will all actually be on the board at 9.

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30 minutes ago, JM57 said:

The Bills brass flew to Wyoming for Allen's private workout last year. We didn't know it happened until after they picked him, but they definitely went to him. 

I don't dislike Wilkins as a player. I do dislike that he'll be 24 before this season ends. That means he's signing his second deal at 28. Some guys are signing their second deal at the age he's being drafted at.

I don’t really care at all about Wilkinson’s age or how old he will be on his next deal. Should I? I’ll take him on his rookie deal and if he’s great I’ll re-sign him. If he’s the best player available I take him, 21 or 24. 

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1 minute ago, Logic said:


I don't think he's actually saying that all of those guys will be there at 9. I think he's saying that when the Bills' pick comes up at 9, if they don't trade back, this is the order in which they would take these players, depending who is available. No one really expects Williams or Oliver to still be there, so he concludes that the pick will be Hockenson. If Hockenson were gone, as well, they'd pick Jonah Williams, and so on. Again, I'm quite certain he's not saying these guys will all actually be on the board at 9.

I’m at work and did not read the article. Thanks for the clarification. The scenario you clarified was just too good to be true!I’m at work and did not read the article. Thanks for the clarification. The scenario you clarified was just too good to be true!

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7 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I usually like Cover 1's analysis, but, I am struggling with this part of the article:

 

So if the Bills stay at nine and are on the clock, I believe the board of best players available will be:

  1. DT Quinnen Williams
  2. DT Ed Oliver
  3. TE TJ Hockenson
  4. OT Jonah Williams
  5. LB Devin Bush
  6. OT Jawaan Taylor

I REALLY want these to be our options at 9 but I would be amazed if any of Q Williams/Oliver/Taylor and J Williams were available, let alone ALL of them still being there. If this were true I imagine we will sprint to the table with Q Williams as our pick.

That’s just their board, in his opinion. He doesn’t think the top 2 will be there.

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10 hours ago, dlonce said:

He’s taking a set of information and molding it to take the guy he wants them to take.

You can take that same information, use a different variable to conclude another player.

 

Its convoluted at best.

 

You have to take Devin White.

 

 

I don't think so. He did a fairly objective review of pick 9 BPA, and was clear there are guys that Beane would take before Hockenson should they fall.

 

I had not considered the logic, but the butterfly kicked me in the head when he looked at positions where the Bills had a high number of visits and correlated that to a FO taking a depth approach to that position; If A is gone who do we have at B, at C, etc.

 

Logical assumption.

 

If Hock pans out, it is not a wasted pick IMO, I think most of the anti-Hock folks would feel better about him if the Bills could trade back and then pick him up, but I am not sure he last past the 12th pick.

 

It would almost be worth it to see how many folks here would crap themselves if NE packaged a bunch of picks and moved up to grab him to replace the retired Gronk.

 

My guess is NE stays put and goes after Josh Oliver a bit earlier than projected. He fits their mold without Belichick having to parlay draft capital.

 

I still think there is some decent depth at the TE position, and would be fine if one of the defensive blue chip talents fell to us. I just would not expect another TE to contribute as quickly as I think Hockenson would.

 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

It was reported before they drafted him. But they brought him in to OBD as well. 

I think the official visit to OBD was known but the private visit was very hush hush. If we knew about it, it wasn't until right about now. I remember the smoke really picked up on Tuesday or Wednesday last year

17 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

That may be, but they also brought Allen to Buffalo for an official visit which is what Turner is basing his list of possibilities off of.

I read the whole thing last night. He mentions official top 30 visits at OBD, senior bowl meetings, combine meetings, private workouts, shrine game...

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16 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I don’t really care at all about Wilkinson’s age or how old he will be on his next deal. Should I? I’ll take him on his rookie deal and if he’s great I’ll re-sign him. If he’s the best player available I take him, 21 or 24. 

Yes, you absolutely should care. Especially with your first pick. We know that abilities decline with age, with the rare exception. If you draft a 24 year old, you might get his peak years right off the bat, but maybe you're getting his athletic decline on the second contract. Whereas an Edmunds or Allen, you're getting development on deal one, prime years on deal two, and maybe if they sign a third deal, you get the twilight of their career.

 

Why you would only want 5-6 years out of a first round pick when there's many other prospects at the same position who could provide you with nearly twice as many years?

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17 minutes ago, JM57 said:

I think the official visit to OBD was known but the private visit was very hush hush. If we knew about it, it wasn't until right about now. I remember the smoke really picked up on Tuesday or Wednesday last year

I read the whole thing last night. He mentions official top 30 visits at OBD, senior bowl meetings, combine meetings, private workouts, shrine game...

The private workout  was reported prior to draft, it came out a couple weeks before . I remember specifically because i had harped for months that they hadn’t met with him, and then we found that they had flown out there end of March. It was not widely reported - one Wyoming person tweeted it and I found it. 

Here it is:

 

 

 

 

 
Edited by YoloinOhio
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