Why I think T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa, will be the #9 pick

[Mat68]

I will get behind any weapon brought in for the offense on day 1 or 2 of the draft.  Who is available at 9 is the question.  Oliver, Gary, Sweat, White could all be an option.  They could all be gone too.  Hockenson looks like a solid TE.  Do you draft solid at 9?  

[Paulus]

On 4/6/2019 at 5:21 AM, KRT88 said:

Wow, plenty of arguments made for one player. 

 

Id have no issues with the pick but it is a deep draft for TE.

And, Beane is smart, which is why a TE will not be taken that high. 

[GimmeSomeProcess]

6 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Eric Ebron was a 1st round pick

Gronk, Ertz were 2nd rounders

Kelce, cook were 3rd rounders

Kittle was a 5th rounder From Iowa

 

Anyway, if you look at the CBS mock drafts you see Hock going at #7 to #19 and most have him going at #12 to GB. The kid is the complete package at TE and blocks like Gronk. He dropped one pass out of 51 and was the first sophomore to win the John Mackey award as the nation's top TE. He also won the big ten TE of the year award. Buffalo has never had a TE this good

 

Interesting article, https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/t-j-hockenson-the-better-iowa-te-prospect

Awesome stuff, I still think rd 2 is where we need to go at tightend but great read 

5 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Dude, I would be alllll about a TE, but I don't want to use our first round pick for 750 yards (the 13 tds is nice, though).  

 

What really spooks me is Ebron.  Before Hockenson, Ebron was the next sure fire, cant miss TE.  Then he wasn't.  The media gets hyped for the draft, the NFL promotes it, and we fall for it.  Every year so many guys are touted as the next big thing, but they rarely are.  Only a handful of guys end up being stars, and the rest are just solid contributors or less.  I'd bet you just about anything that Hockenson is destined to be the next highly touted TE that ends up being just another guy. 

The only thing about this is that Ebron had drop concerns coming out of college. The combine shot him into the top 10. Those drops carried over, nor was he regarded really as a blocker. Fant and Hock both don’t share these concerns

[Nihilarian]

The thing of the percentage of first round hits and misses is because some people develop earlier in life than others and in college, sometimes it's like a man against boys!  Almost all these young men are still developing and will gain weight, muscle and change usually for the better. Some are currently closer to their potential than others. 

 

Anyway, If you look at the catch percentage of last years Buffalo Bills players,

 

Zay Jones, 56 rec 652 yards and a 54.9 catch %

LeSean McCoy, 34 rec 234 yards and a 73.9 catch %

Robert Foster, 27 rec 541 yards and a 61.4 catch %

Kelvin Benjamin, 23 rec 354 yards and a 37.1 catch %

Jason Croom, 22 rec 259 yards and a 62.9 catch %

Charles Clay, 21 rec 184 yards and a 58.3 catch %

 

Cole Beasley, 65 rec 672 yards and a 74.7 catch %

John Brown, 42 rec 715 yards and a 43.3 catch % Things changed for Brown when Flacco stopped playing and Lamar Jackson took over. 

 

I listed those because Noah Fant has a 14% career drop percentage vs TJ Hockenson who dropped one pass out of 51 passes last season at Iowa. 

 

Chris Trapasso calls Hockenson a destroyer of worlds, https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2019-nfl-draft-iowas-t-j-hockenson-is-destroyer-of-worlds-as-a-blocker-dynamic-pass-catcher/

 

I would really, really hate to see the Patriots trade up to draft either Hockenson or Fant and they have one first, two seconds and three thirds. 

 

 

[Juice_32]

I just can’t see the value with him at 9. Give me the best DL/Edge guy in the first. A fast WR in the second and BPA after that. Scoop up Oliver at TE in the 4th or 5th.

[Cripple Creek]

I've come around on this player.  It will be too fun if he gets a case of the dropsies because we'll have 24 TJ Handsofstone threads.  I want to see that.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

On 4/6/2019 at 8:41 AM, NewEraBills said:

If this is about Josh Allen, which it is, then I I don't like the argument for Hockenson.  If Allen's best passes are to the perimeter, which if we study the tape, this is exactly the case, then I'm getting my guy someone that accentuate his strengths.  My argument has nothing to do with Hockenson as a prospect but more about Allen.  I wouldn't take at TE in the first if my QB's best throws are to the perimeter.  Secondly, Beasley, as the slot guy (something that Cam did not have a great presence here), can serve in the Greg Olsen role working the middle.

I get your point, but what if JA never had great options to go with the TE bread/butter routes in 2018 because of who he was forced to play with at that position? I would be open to seeing how a better talent there would also allow Allen to make those different throws with a higher trust level/completion %, and thereby making Allen’s overall skillset more well rounded. 

[NewEraBills]

43 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

I get your point, but what if JA never had great options to go with the TE bread/butter routes in 2018 because of who he was forced to play with at that position? I would be open to seeing how a better talent there would also allow Allen to make those different throws with a higher trust level/completion %, and thereby making Allen’s overall skillset more well rounded. 

 

I think even when you look at his college tape, Allen's best throws are on the perimeter and the deep post from the perimeter.  This is not to say that he didn't throw to the TE at Wyoming, but in 2016 Gentry and Maulhardt were his leading receivers.  Gentry by A LOT.  His last season at Wyoming his leading guys were Austin Conway and CJ Johnson, nobody else was even close.  His rookie season I think Daboll tried to cater to this by featuring a great deal of go routes, deep digs and deep crossers.  All of these ran by WR's.  So to me, if that's my guy at QB and I'm trying to play to his strengths, I'm not taking a TE in the first round.  The passing game seems to be perimeter focused, ie, outside/IN  unlike NE who attacks inside out but predominantly inside.  If my passing attack is Inside/Out focused then I'd take Hock immediately.

Edited April 10, 2019 by NewEraBills

[WideNine]

12 hours ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

Awesome stuff, I still think rd 2 is where we need to go at tightend but great read 

The only thing about this is that Ebron had drop concerns coming out of college. The combine shot him into the top 10. Those drops carried over, nor was he regarded really as a blocker. Fant and Hock both don’t share these concerns

 

Fant actually reminds me a bit of Ebron coming out.

 

Has dominant to freakish physical talent, but did have concentration lapses and more drops than Hockenson.

 

It was that, the routes, and the less effective blocking that had me rating him a bit lower than Hockenson.

 

Like Ebron he will have dominating plays and then some head-scratchers. Bills fans will quickly sour on a guy who blows past everyone and proceeds to drop the ball, or if Josh gets decapitated and replays show Fant whiffing on a block.

 

He is still really good and his ceiling is higher, but it may take a few seasons to see the consistency match the physical talent.

 

Of course if NE picks him up he will dominate us all over the field right out of the gate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rico]

3 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

I've come around on this player.  It will be too fun if he gets a case of the dropsies because we'll have 24 TJ Handsofstone threads.  I want to see that.

No doubt the on-line lives of the high motor lunch pail fans in here will be miserable if we take him at 9 & he sucks.

[GETTOTHE50]

TJ would have caught that TD in the final seconds against Miami.

 

Plz draft him.

[WideNine]

Just now, Rico said:

No doubt the on-line lives of the high motor lunch pail fans in here will be miserable if we take him at 9 & he sucks.

 

I guess one could always hope that our pick at 9 sucks if that's your thing.

 

If they go with someone not on my radar, my hope is they did their homework and we get the best value.

 

I also hope NE does not land any top tier TEs, because apparently they do know how to use them.

 

 

 

 

[DJB]

Hockenson has been my boy from day 1.  He will have such a positive effect on the offence like none other! Pass catching,  pass and run blocking! 

 

With all our speed guys going deep having him underneath eill be incredible for Allen.

 

 

Daniel Jeremiah says at this point he feels its Hockenson or Jonah at 9 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, DJB said:

Hockenson has been my boy from day 1.  He will have such a positive effect on the offence like none other! Pass catching,  pass and run blocking! 

 

With all our speed guys going deep having him underneath eill be incredible for Allen.

 

 

Daniel Jeremiah says at this point he feels its Hockenson or Jonah at 9 

If that's the choice, I want Hock.

[DJB]

18 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Dude, I would be alllll about a TE, but I don't want to use our first round pick for 750 yards (the 13 tds is nice, though).  

 

What really spooks me is Ebron.  Before Hockenson, Ebron was the next sure fire, cant miss TE.  Then he wasn't.  The media gets hyped for the draft, the NFL promotes it, and we fall for it.  Every year so many guys are touted as the next big thing, but they rarely are.  Only a handful of guys end up being stars, and the rest are just solid contributors or less.  I'd bet you just about anything that Hockenson is destined to be the next highly touted TE that ends up being just another guy. 

 

Completely different TE. Hockenson is a traditional Y, Ebron most certainly is not. 

[Rico]

Just now, WideNine said:

 

I guess one could always hope that our pick at 9 sucks if that's your thing.

 

If they go with someone not on my radar, my hope is they did their homework and we get the best value.

 

I also hope NE does not land any top tier TEs, because apparently they do know how to use them.

 

 

 

 

Oh, I will trust the process no matter what for now, and I will always give every Bills player at least 1 year to succeed. You never saw me blasting Peterman. All I am saying is that there is some cheap entertainment to be had in the event he is JAG.

[WideNine]

7 minutes ago, Rico said:

Oh, I will trust the process no matter what for now, and I will always give every Bills player at least 1 year to succeed. You never saw me blasting Peterman. All I am saying is that there is some cheap entertainment to be had in the event he is JAG.

 

Fair enough.

 

I had zero faith the Bills would ever draft another good QB...was just done hoping after so many poor selections and missed prospects. Allen is a very pleasant surprise.

 

The plan out of camp to start Peterman behind that patchwork line after his showing the prior year behind a much better line seemed doomed to failure.

 

It was.

 

The silver lining was Allen got serious reps in and OBD realized that you have to invest in your o-line.

 

 

 

 

 

[Nihilarian]

 

 

 

 

2

3 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

 

I think even when you look at his college tape, Allen's best throws are on the perimeter and the deep post from the perimeter.  This is not to say that he didn't throw to the TE at Wyoming, but in 2016 Gentry and Maulhardt were his leading receivers.  Gentry by A LOT.  His last season at Wyoming his leading guys were Austin Conway and CJ Johnson, nobody else was even close. 

 

His rookie season I think Daboll tried to cater to this by featuring a great deal of go routes, deep digs and deep crossers.  All of these ran by WR's.  So to me, if that's my guy at QB and I'm trying to play to his strengths, I'm not taking a TE in the first round.  The passing game seems to be perimeter focused, ie, outside/IN  unlike NE who attacks inside out but predominantly inside.  If my passing attack is Inside/Out focused then I'd take Hock immediately.

Not many others picked up on this and I think Brian Daboll should have been beaten with a tire iron for his offensive scheme. Not with that craptastic offensive line they fielded last year. It reminded me of 2000 Rams Mike Martz offense with a lot of deep passing that only worked when they had a top O line. Steve Fairchild brought that offense with him to Buffalo in 2006 and we Bills fans got to watch JP Losman get shell shocked out of the league... he probably still has trouble with PTSD. Trent Edwards suffered many concussions running that scheme too. 

 

In my view, that offense that Daboll called was about the very worst you could ask a rookie QB to run with all that deep passing and not all that much time to throw due to the turnstiles of an offensive line. To throw five, seven-step drops you need three to five seconds in the pocket and thus the reason for so much running by Allen. Not to mention all the drops by Jones and Benjamin. Jones 102 targets, 52 catches a 54.9 catch %. Benjamin 62 targets, 23 receptions a 37.1 catch %. Plus, not much of a ran game...except for the QB.

 

Daboll supposedly brought the Patriots playbook with him to Buffalo but like you mention he really didn't utilize it much. With the Patriots it's all about moving the chains, getting first downs and frustrating the defense because the ball is spread around so much they don't know what to expect. The Patriots also run the ball and utilize the tight end A LOT when Gronk is healthy. The Bills should be copying this scheme. 

 

If you look at the last game of the season against Miami the Bills spread the ball around to seven different receivers with Zay Jones catching the most 9 targets, 6 rec, 93 yards, 2 TDs. Foster was next with 5 targets, 4 rec, 21 yards, 1 TD. TE Jason Croom was next with 4 targets, 2 rec for 32 yards. Allen tried to find the TE as he was the third most targeted. 

 

The point here is that teams will start doubling the outside receivers to take away those deep threat wideouts. Shady and Cole Beasley will work their magic with the short, underneath stuff so that leaves the midrange which is where a really good tight end would really force the defense to defend the entire field.

 

All this is probably moot because McD will most likely draft a D lineman with that #9 pick. 

Edited April 10, 2019 by Nihilarian

[ndirish1978]

I think we went so heavy on the OL this offseason to give Josh a chance to succeed with some decent blocking knowing that we are going to be going after TE/DT/EDGE early. I see us taking OL, but not until maybe rd 3-4.

[njbuff]

My thought is right now Oliver won’t be there at 9 like they hope, so it may be Hockenson at 9 and trading back into the first round for Wilkins.

 

Ot just hope that Lawrence or Simmons are there in the second round.