Noah Fant - trade down and draft a difference maker

[Logic]

45 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

They didn't draft him but Greg Olsen was a first round draft pick.  And McD has praised his presence on the Panthers.

 "Yeah, I liked it when we were on offense, when it was third and about five, I knew we were going to go get a first down because we had Greg Olsen, McDermott started. "At an early age, I feel like that I learned how important that tight end position is to a quarterback and a particular young quarterback. It becomes a security blanket."

 

If you believe Beane and his BPA talk, then you should believe he would take BPA regardless of position.

I'm not disagreeing with you and I think it will be DL/Edge in the first round.  

But it would be nice for once in the history of this franchise to have a dominant TE.

I'm with you. 

Me, personally? I think the number 1 priority for the Bills is making sure they do absolutely everything they can to help Josh Allen succeed. If Josh Allen turns into a franchise QB, the Bills are perennial contenders for the next 10-15 years. They've already visibly committed to upgrading the offensive line and WR corps. The next logical step would be to give him the best tight end you possibly can. I like TJ Hockenson quite a bit and would be thrilled if the Bills selected him....I just don't think they will. And as far as the notion of taking a defensive lineman with the first pick instead of an offensive player: I can certainly understand the logic of wanting to make sure your defense is elite, since that will ALSO help Josh Allen, just in a different way. Doesn't mean I don't want an elite tight end or wide receiver.

The draft is weird this year. There are five different positions that I could reasonably see them spending a 1st round pick on, and I wouldn't fault them for any of them.

[Thurman#1]

On 3/30/2019 at 2:22 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

Howard is on his way to being a star. Ebron is a bust for his draft position no doubt.

I want mismatches.  Guys that are simply physically superior to their opponent. The Bills have so precious few of those type of players. 

But I agree with most not at #9 with elite defenders on the board.

 

 

With TEs, being physically faster and quicker is one way to create a mismatch, but only on about, what, 6 - 7% of the plays of the game, when you throw to him. Another way to create a mismatch, but on nearly every play, is to have a guy who can both catch and block well. Makes him much more unpredictable and thus dangerous. And helps both the pass and run game a ton.

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

On 3/29/2019 at 12:01 PM, YoloinOhio said:

Fant generally has his frame in the right area when blocking, so he shows potential there. But he’s not very big and depending on the matchup was unable to block the bigger, savvy defender. 

 

Fwiw this is the game the Bills watched live:

 

 

Fant is 6'4" 249 lbs., Hockenson is 6'5" 251 so is Hockenson small also? It's not that Fant can't be taught to block, it's that he wasn't asked to since they used him as a downfield weapon, I'm also not agreeing with this he has sketchy hands thing. Do you honestly think a Scout goes to 1 game, sees 1 bad play and immediately takes them off the board? His entire body of work is quite impressive especially seeing as he wasn't a full time starter.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[SouthNYfan]

25 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Thanks!!

Good video.

Only 2 drops in his entire college career is pretty awesome for hock.

Fant drop rate is very alarming.

[100DollarBills]

He should marry a girl named Ellie. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[ganesh]

On 3/29/2019 at 9:29 PM, YoloinOhio said:

I like Fant but would not take him in the 1st. He doesn’t have great hands and I think he’s significantly less pro-ready than Hockenson. He’s a better athlete and faster but he’s not stepping in immediately ready to block at the Pro level. He has a lot of room to grow, and Nate Stanley struggled to throw the ball downfield consistently so i think he could be better utilized at the next level. He reminds me of Ebron. Which means he could go in the 1st, but i wouldn’t do it. 

 

He also had a bad day the one game Beane watched him live vs PSU. Fumbled and missed a huge assignment that led to an INT to lose game. 

 

He he has more “elite” traits than Hock but lacks polish - both are round 2 prospects imo who will go in 1st.

 

he could be the Bills version of Edmunds - very high Ceiling but somewhat of a project. If so, your scenario could certainly play out. 

I don't see either of them getting past the Patriots 

[YoloinOhio]

9 minutes ago, ganesh said:

I don't see either of them getting past the Patriots 

At 32? I think they will both be gone before that - but not sure either fits the Pats prototype. They like big TEs. They are likely more interested in the kid from Michigan if they draft one. Still think they go after a vet in a trade.

Edited April 13, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[qwksilver]

 

I think 1 is gone. Not sure about Fant. FYI, Hernandez the Killer was only 6-1 245. So not a huge TE.

 

I see the mocks but I think Fant slides.... only 13 days.....

Edited April 13, 2019 by qwksilver

[LEBills]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Now this is interesting. If there is one thing I learned from last year is that the Bills love those secret private workouts occurring around a prospects pro days. Last year, it was thought that the Bills did not have much interest in Allen bc they did not seem to be spending as much time on him as other quarterbacks. Then, a CBS article reported the Bills had met with Allen around his pro day - which seemed to be the only mention of it before the draft. We now know this is when the whole organizational contingent went to meet Josh and had some inclement weather for their plane ride. For this info in regards to Fant to come out 3 weeks after it’s occurance is interesting to me.

 

if you put Fant up against all the other pass catchers in this draft, he may be the most physically gifted and is pretty accomplished. I could see him being our pick in a certain circumstance at 9 as our way to help stretch the seam for Josh this year. Anyway, only 13 days until we find out.

[MAJBobby]

On 3/29/2019 at 11:45 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

I don't believe the Bills have ever had an athletically superior tight end. 

I would see Fant as great complement to Kroft (who I don't think much of at all) and Fisher(assuming he even makes the roster). Bills TE play has been so underwhelming for decades if not the entire history of the franchise. Hockenson is probably a better talent than Kroft but the skill set is too similar and the explosiveness is not the same as Fant.

I would like to see Beane drop down a few spots maybe even with more than one trade and take Fant around 15 -18. I think he could create mismatches all over the field.

For the record, I think the best chance to trade down is if there is an early run on QBs and Miami or Denver gets nervous they will be shut out. That said, if there is an early run on QBs I see the Bills staying at 9 and taking an elite defender.

 

Ok new rule. You want to trade down say who wants to come up and for who, also what would be the package 

[BillsFan1988]

On 4/4/2019 at 7:16 AM, XABI64 said:

no thanks

 

he can't block. TE's who can't block don't last long in this league. Hockenson is one of the best TE prospects to come out in years. he has everything. no way you take Fant above him lol

That's actually false he's a good blocker just not as great as Hock .

[BillsFan1988]

On 4/4/2019 at 5:18 AM, njbuff said:

The Bills can find a quality starting TE in the mid rounds in this draft.

 

That's where a lot of NFL starting TE's are found anyways.

 

Very few Kellen Winslow Sr's out there who were high draft picks at TE and immediately turned into superstars.

The game is changing teams are catching on to the importance of the TEs . 3 of them will go in the 1st rd . 

 

How many TEs go in the first rd on a yr to yr basis not many 1 at the most on average maybe less then that.  I expect that number to start to rise now that on the college and high school levels there starting to put the best athletes at this position. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Ok new rule. You want to trade down say who wants to come up and for who, also what would be the package 

Denver #10 and #71

Bills #9 and #158

Denver takes Lock

Bills take Oliver at #10

Then they trade #40 and #71 to Seattle for # 20 and draft Fant

Denver wants a QB and needs to stay ahead of Miami and NYG who will want Lock at #9

Seattle needs to trade out of the first round

The points add up and still leaves the Bills with their 3rd round pick to use on a WR or Edge (doubt much value at OT in 3rd round)

 

OR

 

NYG #17 and #37 

Bills #9

NYG takes Lock at #9

Bills take Fant at 17 then BPA 37 and 40

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Hockenson > Fant

[maryland-bills-fan]

On 3/29/2019 at 12:24 PM, DCbillsfan said:

If the Bills stay at 9, I really want the Bills to draft a guy who is "plug and play" in the first round.  Hopefully that is part of their definition of BPA.

 

   Not to make myself a target, but there are different meanings of "BPA".  One is "plug and play" - the guy who will be starting and playing good by the 3rd game of the season.  It might be a guy who played in  pro-type system, is older, and is already at their ceiling.   A second is a guy with better physical skills who has to learn the different game and maybe put on age and size.  You might not see his best for two or three years.  

 

At the top of the draft, you can have them both.   Lower down in the draft I think the Bills are looking at drafting the highest ceiling guys and not strongly considering the floor.   So in the 6th round, they might draft the 320 pound offensive guard who is a track star and weight lifter from Southwest Montana Bible College rather than the 220 pound plodding adequate 3 year starter from a big name school.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Somehow I gotta believe that tight ends from college are not always the way to get tight ends for the pros.   In college, they can get along great and look great in highlight films by being just a little better than the linebackers that normally cover them. In the pros, every linebacker is like the guy they saw once a year and who shut them down.  If they were that really good, the college would have them as a WR, QB or RB.  I wonder if a "position change" project is a good way to get superior tight ends OR if a starting TE should be done by a committee of 2-3 guys.  These might be substitued frequently and have different strong points.

 

I wouldn't use a 1st or 2nd round pick on a TE.

 

Edited April 13, 2019 by maryland-bills-fan

[SouthNYfan]

5 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Denver #10 and #71

Bills #9 and #158

Denver takes Lock

Bills take Oliver at #10

Then they trade #40 and #71 to Seattle for # 20 and draft Fant

Denver wants a QB and needs to stay ahead of Miami and NYG who will want Lock at #9

Seattle needs to trade out of the first round

The points add up and still leaves the Bills with their 3rd round pick to use on a WR or Edge (doubt much value at OT in 3rd round)

 

OR

 

NYG #17 and #37 

Bills #9

NYG takes Lock at #9

Bills take Fant at 17 then BPA 37 and 40

 

So you're saying Denver moves up from #10 to #9 to secure a QB when they know we aren't taking one??

 

Or are you implying they do that to block the Giants from jumping up to #9??

 

You also aren't going to get #20 from Seattle for #40 and #71 ??

[Ethan in Cleveland]

16 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

So you're saying Denver moves up from #10 to #9 to secure a QB when they know we aren't taking one??

 

Or are you implying they do that to block the Giants from jumping up to #9??

 

You also aren't going to get #20 from Seattle for #40 and #71 ??

Yes I'm suggesting the Bills put a rumor out about NYG wanting to trade up after they take a DL at #6

 

The points add up for the Seattle trade as I suggested. Maybe add a 6th or 7th to sweeten the deal a little.

[SouthNYfan]

26 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Yes I'm suggesting the Bills put a rumor out about NYG wanting to trade up after they take a DL at #6

 

The points add up for the Seattle trade as I suggested. Maybe add a 6th or 7th to sweeten the deal a little.

 

Jimmy Johnson value

 

#21 (sea) = 800

#41 (den) = 490

#71 (den) = 235

 

That's 725 vs 800

 

Seattle isn't giving up the #21 pick for that.

[buffaloboyinATL]

So I just watched the 2017 TD highlight reel and out of all of his touchdowns, only 1 or 2 were really contested. He gets crazy separation and has soft hands, but that kind of separation is hard to find in the NFL. 

[MAJBobby]

7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Denver #10 and #71

Bills #9 and #158

Denver takes Lock

Bills take Oliver at #10

Then they trade #40 and #71 to Seattle for # 20 and draft Fant

Denver wants a QB and needs to stay ahead of Miami and NYG who will want Lock at #9

Seattle needs to trade out of the first round

The points add up and still leaves the Bills with their 3rd round pick to use on a WR or Edge (doubt much value at OT in 3rd round)

 

OR

 

NYG #17 and #37 

Bills #9

NYG takes Lock at #9

Bills take Fant at 17 then BPA 37 and 40

 

Ok first Trade I see. And like that idea to grab another top 100 pick and still get an elite talent 

 

Second I don’t. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

7 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Jimmy Johnson value

 

#21 (sea) = 800

#41 (den) = 490

#71 (den) = 235

 

That's 725 vs 800

 

Seattle isn't giving up the #21 pick for that.

Seattle moved down 9 spots in 2018 and picked up a 3rd and swapped 6th and 7thr round picks.

For dropping 20 spots in my scenario they pick up a second and a third that is 6 spots higher than the 2018 third round pick from the Packers. 

You are probably correct the Bills would need to throw in a 6th this year or maybe a 4th in 2020.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

6 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Ok first Trade I see. And like that idea to grab another top 100 pick and still get an elite talent 

 

Second I don’t. 

I wonder if anyone accurately predicts trades. So many variables based on players already gone.

It takes two and probably a special circumstance for Bills to pass on an elite DL at #9. But Denver, Miami, Washington, and NYG all have QB needs. Could make it interesting. 

If Murray doesn't go #1, the top 10 will be nuts with possible trade down scenarios for every team with the depth at DL this year.

[SouthNYfan]

16 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Seattle moved down 9 spots in 2018 and picked up a 3rd and swapped 6th and 7thr round picks.

For dropping 20 spots in my scenario they pick up a second and a third that is 6 spots higher than the 2018 third round pick from the Packers. 

You are probably correct the Bills would need to throw in a 6th this year or maybe a 4th in 2020.

 

It's not about how many spots they moved, it's about the tier that they moved to

Picks "value points" aren't linear 

The gap from pick to pick widens the closer to the top of the draft you are

Anyway these are guidelines

It's like (making up numbers) they aren't going to take a 4th, 5th,  and two 6th for a late first even if the "points" align

[#34fan]

I ike Fant, but he's been known to drop 'em from time to time.... Can't have that in the first... 2nd... Maybe even 3rd round.

 

TJ Hockenson:
- 2 drops on 75 catchable passes.
- 7 contested catches.
- 8 broken tackles.

Noah Fant:
- 13 drops on 91 catchable passes.
- 4 contested catches.
- 3 broken tackles.

[JaCrispy]

Dawson Knox TE Ole Miss....3rd/4th round

[Cripple Creek]

On 3/29/2019 at 11:45 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

I don't believe the Bills have ever had an athletically superior tight end. 

I would see Fant as great complement to Kroft (who I don't think much of at all) and Fisher(assuming he even makes the roster). Bills TE play has been so underwhelming for decades if not the entire history of the franchise. Hockenson is probably a better talent than Kroft but the skill set is too similar and the explosiveness is not the same as Fant.

I would like to see Beane drop down a few spots maybe even with more than one trade and take Fant around 15 -18. I think he could create mismatches all over the field.

For the record, I think the best chance to trade down is if there is an early run on QBs and Miami or Denver gets nervous they will be shut out. That said, if there is an early run on QBs I see the Bills staying at 9 and taking an elite defender.

If he is so much a difference maker why must he be traded down for?  It's apparent that you have nowledge that NFL teams do not and I'm interested in finding out more about it.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

6 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

It's not about how many spots they moved, it's about the tier that they moved to

Picks "value points" aren't linear 

The gap from pick to pick widens the closer to the top of the draft you are

Anyway these are guidelines

It's like (making up numbers) they aren't going to take a 4th, 5th,  and two 6th for a late first even if the "points" align

Agree. But it is also multiple picks for one late first rounder. The success rate between pick 20 and pick 40 can not be much if any. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

If he is so much a difference maker why must he be traded down for?  It's apparent that you have nowledge that NFL teams do not and I'm interested in finding out more about it.

He doesn’t but historically TEs just aren't taken that high. And in this draft the better value will be DL at 9. Now that could change if some crazy stuff happens like the Cards passing on Murray and Tampa not taking a LB.  There could be a huge run on DL/edge players in the first 8 picks.  If that happens Fant, Metcalf, or an OT may be BPA that is not a QB.  That is when you put the 9th pick up for auction and see what happens. If no-one bites take Fant and pencil in 7 TDs

 

 

[SouthNYfan]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Agree. But it is also multiple picks for one late first rounder. The success rate between pick 20 and pick 40 can not be much if any. 

 

Not sure

I'd have to try and look into that success rate

#20 is probably higher by a bit though

[NewEra]

16 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I wonder if anyone accurately predicts trades. So many variables based on players already gone.

It takes two and probably a special circumstance for Bills to pass on an elite DL at #9. But Denver, Miami, Washington, and NYG all have QB needs. Could make it interesting. 

If Murray doesn't go #1, the top 10 will be nuts with possible trade down scenarios for every team with the depth at DL this year.

Which “elite pass rusher” would we be passing on?  Ed Oliver?  He’s the only guy other than Bosa, Allen’s and Q Williams that I’d regard as (potentially) elite.  Montez Sweat?  I dunno if I’d call him elite.  Gary? Hell no.  Burns?  Possibly, I’m just not sure if he’ll hold up at DE.  Wilkins?  Not elite imo.  

 

The elite guys will be gone by the time we pick, unless Oliver is there.  While his explosion is elite, he hasn’t shown that he’s elite on the football field.  

 

If the right offer comes around im confidant that Beane would pull the trigger