Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[TheElectricCompany]

9 minutes ago, wakingfane said:

I expect to see a six point jump in completion percentage next year.. related to improvement mostly in areas other than "accuracy"...

 

I expect a jump too, although not as high. It would be pretty unprecedented to have a QB surpass his NCAA completion percentage within his first four seasons. 

Who would have thought that a QB who had poor NCAA stats would have poor NFL stats? 

Doesn't matter .... Josh is beyond statistics. 

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Why did the two other guys have higher percentages, and one for just one game?  Because they are veterans and see the field better and get the ball to guys quicker when they're more open, is the likely explanation.  Which has nothing to do with accuracy.  Nothing.  At all.  And I did say that Allen certainly needs to improve.  Touch is one of those things he can improve upon.

 

You are the typical guy out there that slavishly latches onto one stat with no comprehension of the variables that can affect such a statistic.  You also are the typical one who does not understand the difference between being accurate and precise.  When people complain about someone not being accurate, what they are really complaining about is that someone is lacking being precise together with being accurate.  I have gone over this several times on the board, but folks like you don't want to become educated on it because it would interfere with your predetermined conclusion.

You’re the guy (and I do get why and I used to do it too) that ignores years of statically evidence because you want to believe Allen isn’t inaccurate.

 

While there are are plenty of cases of inaccurate colleges qbs getting drafted high and busting, ill point to one who ended up with a borderline HOF career. McNabb had a very good career and I’d gladly have Allen come close to his level.  But he struggle with throws that stopped him from becoming a consistent top 5-10 guy.  And it wasn’t because of lack of arm strength.  He would skip screen passes. He would sail 10 yards passes.  

 

There is so much more  to be an accurate qb.  It’s throwing to guys in space and putting touch on a ball to let them catch and run.  Allen is basically a fastball pitcher right now.

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I think there's room for both.  I am with you 100% on the "eye test" part of things.  Leadership, talent, moxie -- he's got it all.  I also think stats have their place.  The one thing I haven't seen a lot of people talk about is the fact Allen started this process behind the 8-ball.  He was not groomed at an early age to be a QB, and we've seen how poorly he was coached at Wyoming.  From what I can tell the kid has literally only had about a season and a half's worth of coaches working specifically on his mechanics and the art of playing QB.  And look how far he has come!

 

The sky is the limit for this kid, and I think we're all going to be pretty pleased with what the future holds.

I agree with a lot of your post. I’d also like to point out that Allen’s coach at Wyoming was Carson Wentz’ college coach. 

27 minutes ago, wakingfane said:

Agreed. I just see a natural physical awareness, intuition, and intelligence on field that I believe will lead to continued growth in that area and others. And I agree with the OP that accuracy technically is not the issue. It's precision and touch, which are easier to fix and/or work with. This is not an EJ Manuel / JP Losman level project.

Imo, touch passes are tougher for strong arm qbs than bombs.  EJ actually threw a nice deep ball when he just let it rip.  He then tried to aim the ball on shorter throws.  JP was great on deep balls and sucked on the short throws.  

 

Allen has natural arm talent and has relied on it for so long.  But those touch passes or taking something off a football are harder for a guy like that than someone like Brees, who doesn’t have a cannon.  

[eball]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

I agree with a lot of your post. I’d also like to point out that Allen’s coach at Wyoming was Carson Wentz’ college coach. 

 

 

I don't think college head coaches do much developmental work for QBs.  It's up to whomever they have as OCs and QB coaches.  I think there was a lot lacking at Wyoming in this department.

[CincyBillsFan]

Thanks for doing the hard work to quantitate what a lot of us saw while watching the games.  Allen does not have accuracy problems.  In fact after coming back from his injury he repeatedly demonstrated exceptional accuracy AND touch.  What he needs to work on are his footwork/mechanics in certain situations and to better read defenses both before & during a play.  Given his intelligence & work ethic this should be something he can accomplish in the off season.

 

And for the record until Allen has check down skill position players that are a threat to break a 5 yard dump pass into a 15 yard gain (see McCaffrey or Gurley) Allen would be better advised to throw the ball downfield.  I suspect that the kids attitude will always mean his percentage completion numbers will suffer a bit as he favors making the longer throws.  I'm more interested in seeing Allen's yardage per completion go up then his percent completion rate go up.

 

Watching Mahomes in the playoffs has only reinforced my opinion that when throwing the ball Allen actually resembles the KC gunslinger.  Now I know that's sacrilege to a lot of posters here but Mahomes succeeds because he puts the ball where his skill players can make a play.  Remember the 2nd & 18 play where Mahomes hit Kelce across the middle for a 17 yard play against Indy?  On that play the ball was low & out in front of Kelce but he made the catch.  Now think back to the Jet's game where this board argued over a couple of pages that Clay didn't drop the pass but that Allen needed to make a perfect pass.  IMO the pass that Allen threw to Clay in that game was better then the one Mahomes threw to Kelce.  My observations were that a lot of Allen's throws were more then good enough. 

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

Thanks for doing the hard work to quantitate what a lot of us saw while watching the games.  Allen does not have accuracy problems.  In fact after coming back from his injury he repeatedly demonstrated exceptional accuracy AND touch.  What he needs to work on are his footwork/mechanics in certain situations and to better read defenses both before & during a play.  Given his intelligence & work ethic this should be something he can accomplish in the off season.

 

And for the record until Allen has check down skill position players that are a threat to break a 5 yard dump pass into a 15 yard gain (see McCaffrey or Gurley) Allen would be better advised to throw the ball downfield.  I suspect that the kids attitude will always mean his percentage completion numbers will suffer a bit as he favors making the longer throws.  I'm more interested in seeing Allen's yardage per completion go up then his percent completion rate go up.

 

Watching Mahomes in the playoffs has only reinforced my opinion that when throwing the ball Allen actually resembles the KC gunslinger.  Now I know that's sacrilege to a lot of posters here but Mahomes succeeds because he puts the ball where his skill players can make a play.  Remember the 2nd & 18 play where Mahomes hit Kelce across the middle for a 17 yard play against Indy?  On that play the ball was low & out in front of Kelce but he made the catch.  Now think back to the Jet's game where this board argued over a couple of pages that Clay didn't drop the pass but that Allen needed to make a perfect pass.  IMO the pass that Allen threw to Clay in that game was better then the one Mahomes threw to Kelce.  My observations were that a lot of Allen's throws were more then good enough. 

We had one of the best rbs in the nfl to check down too. McCoy was really, really good before last year.

2 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I don't think college head coaches do much developmental work for QBs.  It's up to whomever they have as OCs and QB coaches.  I think there was a lot lacking at Wyoming in this department.

A coach at UND and Wyoming had 2 top 10 drafted qbs in 3 years.  I think he deserves some credit for that.  

 

I do do get what you’re saying about developing qbs in college however.  But wasn’t one of the pluses about Allen is that he played in a pro system in college?

[row_33]

6 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Great analysis OP. Thanks.

 

I doubt any reasonable argument that Allen is good will ever be accepted by the national media. They are all heavily invested in the narrative that Allen is a bust.

 

i dunno, i hear podcasts giving him props for potential

 

the media 100% laughed themselves nearly to death over Bills fans convinced Anderson was gonna put pain in the Pats in his big comeback

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

We had one of the best rbs in the nfl to check down too. McCoy was really, really good before last year.

But he lost a step which is hard to blame on Allen.  And maybe next year McCoy can get back to where he was as recently as 2017.  And it's not just the RB's we're talking about here.  TE's play a crucial role in providing outlets for QB dump offs.  While I think Crooms can develop into a moderate to deep threat receiving TE the Bills desperately need a big blocking TE that can release as the QB is flushed out of the pocket for the dump off.  Funny how ALL four of the championship teams have this kind of player. 

[eball]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

A coach at UND and Wyoming had 2 top 10 drafted qbs in 3 years.  I think he deserves some credit for that.  

 

I do do get what you’re saying about developing qbs in college however.  But wasn’t one of the pluses about Allen is that he played in a pro system in college?

 

Good recruiter?    I don't know if you can even give him credit for Allen -- nobody recruited him.

 

I think it was viewed as a plus that Allen wasn't exclusively shotgun so he knew how to take a snap.  But watching highlights, it seems as if the play call was typically "Josh, run around and try to make a play."

[racketmaster]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) that was a lot of work so I salute you

 

2) 49% in junior college, 56% in college, and 52% in the nfl.  When does the lack of accuracy ever become Allen’s fault?  I’m sorry but the guy is a top 10 pick and the highest drafted qb in Bills history.  At some point, can we stop blaming everyone else?

 

3) Barkley and Anderson, dime a dozen Street FAs, came off the street and both completed 60% of their passes with the same terrible wrs.  The 60% was higher than their career average.  

 

4) Eric Ebron was considered a bust in Detroit.  He gets with Luck and has a pro bowl season.  Did he suddenly get better?  Or does Luck throw a more catchable football?  This is a thing posters overlook.  As a receiver, you don’t always watch to catch a 95 mile per hour fastball.  This league is about touch.  What separates qbs like Mahomes and Allen, both who have rocket arms, is Mahomes has great touch on his passes.  Allen hasn’t shown that.

 

allen is very exciting but the excuse making is getting old.  He isn’t that accurate.  Accept it.  He needs to improve.  Hopefully the regime that traded for Benjamin and Matthews and drafted Zay over JuJu And Kupp (plus the 2 undersized guys that weren’t good this year) will suddenly figure out how to evaluate wrs.  But no matter how many excuses you make, 52% is terrible. 

Completion % is just one stat and it can be easily manipulated by a play caller to boost a quarterback’s stats if that is their primary goal. But the primary goal is to win games and taking advantage of what Allen does well is what any offensive coordinator should do in order to best win the game at hand. 

 

There are some things that Bills fans should just accept with Allen: (1) He likes to push the ball down the field and is willing to make difficult throws and his air yards will always be near top of league (2) He is likely to never be a great short pass quarterback as he does not have a lot of natural feel for the quick game and screens (maybe he can make some modest improvement in this area because he does not do it that often) and (3) he will likely end up being an average at best touch passer. These limitations/decisions  will likely result in a sub 60% completion rate for most of his career. But that’s not a death sentence. 

 

Look at it this way: Allen goes 1 for 2 for 10 yards and a first down. Mariota goes 2 for 2 for 10 yards and a first down. Both achieved first downs and both get a new set of downs. One qb pushed the ball down field and the other chose to take 2 check downs to get the first down. Both reached the desired goal so who is to say what method was wrong. 

 

Allen might be compared more to a Newton type rather than a Drew Brees or Tom Brady. Both are athletic and power throwers. There are differences for sure between them but they are similar traits (running threats, big arms with the ability to make explosive plays down the field). Long story short is let’s not try and make Allen into something he is not (a precise short/quick game passer). Take advantage of what he does well and that just may mean making big chunk plays with his legs and arm. 

Edited January 15, 2019 by racketmaster

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

49% in junior college, 56% in college, and 52% in the nfl.  When does the lack of accuracy ever become Allen’s fault?

 

Completion percentage still doesn't equal accuracy. And that doesn't mean Allen is blameless. If he doesn't take an easy checkdown or he misreads the field, his completion percentage will suffer for reasons that have nothing to do with accuracy but are nevertheless his fault. The point of the OP isn't that Allen is a perfect QB, it's that his accuracy concerns are overblown.

I stick by what I've said - Allen will never improve his accuracy significantly from where it is now, but it is already good enough. What he needs to improve is his ability to read the field and make quick throws. He was less accurate than usual in the final game but he had over a 65% completion anyways because he made good reads and his receivers didn't drop the ball. He had one of his most accurate games against Detroit but finished around 50% completion. It isn't as simple as that.

[row_33]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Completion percentage still doesn't equal accuracy. And that doesn't mean Allen is blameless. If he doesn't take an easy checkdown or he misreads the field, his completion percentage will suffer for reasons that have nothing to do with accuracy but are nevertheless his fault. The point of the OP isn't that Allen is a perfect QB, it's that his accuracy concerns are overblown.

I stick by what I've said - Allen will never improve his accuracy significantly from where it is now, but it is already good enough. What he needs to improve is his ability to read the field and make quick throws. He was less accurate than usual in the final game but he had over a 65% completion anyways because he made good reads and his receivers didn't drop the ball. He had one of his most accurate games against Detroit but finished around 50% completion. It isn't as simple as that.

 

[it's how people like to think they are communicating with other sports fans.....]

 

sometimes i can put up with it.

 

 

[oldmanfan]

19 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re the guy (and I do get why and I used to do it too) that ignores years of statically evidence because you want to believe Allen isn’t inaccurate.

 

While there are are plenty of cases of inaccurate colleges qbs getting drafted high and busting, ill point to one who ended up with a borderline HOF career. McNabb had a very good career and I’d gladly have Allen come close to his level.  But he struggle with throws that stopped him from becoming a consistent top 5-10 guy.  And it wasn’t because of lack of arm strength.  He would skip screen passes. He would sail 10 yards passes.  

 

There is so much more  to be an accurate qb.  It’s throwing to guys in space and putting touch on a ball to let them catch and run.  Allen is basically a fastball pitcher right now.

I agree with a lot of your post. I’d also like to point out that Allen’s coach at Wyoming was Carson Wentz’ college coach. 

Imo, touch passes are tougher for strong arm qbs than bombs.  EJ actually threw a nice deep ball when he just let it rip.  He then tried to aim the ball on shorter throws.  JP was great on deep balls and sucked on the short throws.  

 

Allen has natural arm talent and has relied on it for so long.  But those touch passes or taking something off a football are harder for a guy like that than someone like Brees, who doesn’t have a cannon.  

You continue to not understand the definition of accuracy, so it is pointless to continue having a discussion.  You are mixing up accuracy with precision.

[TheElectricCompany]

7 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Allen might be compared more to a Newton type rather than a Drew Brees or Tom Brady. Both are athletic and power throwers.

 

If Newton is the ceiling, which seems to be a common theme around here, is that good enough? I think you could make a case that it isn't. 

Carolina has invested in quite a few weapons for Cam and he's still been a pretty average passer for 7/8 seasons. 

 

Edited January 15, 2019 by TheElectricCompany

[row_33]

I don't see even 1% reason for comparison with Cam Newton

 

I see more Steve Young as a runner who is going to learn to stand in the pocket (like Mahomes and Roethlisberger) and wisely cut down on the scramble as he ages.

 

which may be a silly stretch, so sue me

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) that was a lot of work so I salute you

 

2) 49% in junior college, 56% in college, and 52% in the nfl.  When does the lack of accuracy ever become Allen’s fault?  I’m sorry but the guy is a top 10 pick and the highest drafted qb in Bills history.  At some point, can we stop blaming everyone else?

 

3) Barkley and Anderson, dime a dozen Street FAs, came off the street and both completed 60% of their passes with the same terrible wrs.  The 60% was higher than their career average.  

 

4) Eric Ebron was considered a bust in Detroit.  He gets with Luck and has a pro bowl season.  Did he suddenly get better?  Or does Luck throw a more catchable football?  This is a thing posters overlook.  As a receiver, you don’t always watch to catch a 95 mile per hour fastball.  This league is about touch.  What separates qbs like Mahomes and Allen, both who have rocket arms, is Mahomes has great touch on his passes.  Allen hasn’t shown that.

 

allen is very exciting but the excuse making is getting old.  He isn’t that accurate.  Accept it.  He needs to improve.  Hopefully the regime that traded for Benjamin and Matthews and drafted Zay over JuJu And Kupp (plus the 2 undersized guys that weren’t good this year) will suddenly figure out how to evaluate wrs.  But no matter how many excuses you make, 52% is terrible. 

 

I think the thing he improved most before and after injury was his sack rate.  Obviously he ran quite a bit on these scramble plays - but his sack rate went from about 12 (incredibly bad rookie rate) to about 3.5.  Sack's aren't as bad as picks but they are essentially drive killers.  12% of drives were probably killed on sacks, and many others were probably killed with penalties or poor execution.  He was able to get more comfortable in the pocket and make plays with both his arms and legs.  

His total lack of a run game to lean on both in college and the NFL, as well as a weak o-line at both levels makes it kind of tricky to judge from a completion percentage perspective.  He's put in some pretty poor down and distance conditions by both unsuccessful running plays, countless penalties, and poor line play.

 

He did have some trouble with what should be easy rhythm passes, so hopefully we see some improvement on that in year 2.  If the defense gives those kinds of plays up, you have to take them and be accurate and precise with the throws to maximize the impact and force them to change their strategy.

[CincyBillsFan]

I may be off base here but another way to think about accuracy versus completion percentage is that one is almost entirely on the QB while the other relies as much on the offensive scheme being run; the defensive scheme being run (prevent defenses are great for boosting ones completion %) & the quality of the receivers.

 

Another way to look at it is let's say I play WR for the NO Saints this week in practice.  We can all agree that Drew Brees has the highest % completion in the NFL.  So stick me out there and get one of the Saints CB's to cover me.  After throwing 100 balls to me Brees will likely have a % completion average of about 0.  Does that mean he was inaccurate?  Of course not.   

[TheElectricCompany]

Geez, this thread reminds me of Moneyball. 

If he's an accurate thrower, why doesn't he throw accurately? 

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Love how you didn’t dispute one of my points.  Why are Anderson and Barkley, after like a week with the team, more “accurate” than Allen?  Or that having a rocket doesn’t mean you throw a catchable football?

 

if Allen was on any other team, we would laugh at him and wonder why a team took such an “inaccurate “ qb that high.  He seems like a hard worker and is very exciting.  But despite all the excuses, he is going to need to be a more accurate passer next year. 

 

Allen goes downfield more than any of those QB's.  He's a risk taker.

 

If you're saying there isn't a difference in the throws he makes, it's like saying there isn't a difference between shooting a free throw and a 3 pointer.  

Not to mention, Allen was a rookie.  QB's do not all develop at the same rate.  To say Allen didn't improve as the season went on isn't correct.

[row_33]

11 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Allen goes downfield more than any of those QB's.  He's a risk taker.

 

 

 

the reduction of risk would be more welcome as we go forward and he learns to stand in the pocket like a real NFL QB

 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Geez, this thread reminds me of Moneyball. 

If he's an accurate thrower, why doesn't he throw accurately? 

 

 

That would be an inaccurate description of what we all saw AFTER Allen came back from his injury. 

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, row_33 said:

I don't see even 1% reason for comparison with Cam Newton

 

I see more Steve Young as a runner who is going to learn to stand in the pocket (like Mahomes and Roethlisberger) and wisely cut down on the scramble as he ages.

 

which may be a silly stretch, so sue me

 

 

Good compariosn

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, row_33 said:

 

the reduction of risk would be more welcome as we go forward and he learns to stand in the pocket like a real NFL QB

 

 

He already does but still does bail early too many times.  He just needs to be more consistent.  

[racketmaster]

12 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

If Newton is the ceiling, which seems to be a common theme around here, is that good enough? I think you could make a case that it isn't. 

Carolina has invested in quite a few weapons for Cam and he's still been a pretty average passer for 7/8 seasons. 

 

I think their  playing style is similar but there personalities are different and that is what I am banking on will be the difference between these two as far as career trajectories go. Newton has always had and pursues interests outside of football in terms of fashion etc. There is nothing wrong with that per se but I just don’t get the sense that Newton is fully committed to his team and getting better as a player. There has to be some competitive drive to make a player continually push themselves to improve and I think Newton lacks some of that drive. You can see that he has improved very little as a passer since entering the league and his physical skills will only continue to diminish. I see Allen as more driven and much more willing to do what it takes for the team and for himself to get better. Allen appears to be a much better leader (no sulking on sidelines) and he has full backing of his team. Remember Steve Smith questioned Cams leadership early on and that has not been an issue with Allen. So I believe Allen can and will improve more as a passer as the years go on and he will be an excellent leader on the team. That could be enough to make Allen and the Bills regular contenders as Newton and the Panthers have been close even with his faults. 

Edited January 15, 2019 by racketmaster

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I may be off base here but another way to think about accuracy versus completion percentage is that one is almost entirely on the QB while the other relies as much on the offensive scheme being run; the defensive scheme being run (prevent defenses are great for boosting ones completion %) & the quality of the receivers.

 

Another way to look at it is let's say I play WR for the NO Saints this week in practice.  We can all agree that Drew Brees has the highest % completion in the NFL.  So stick me out there and get one of the Saints CB's to cover me.  After throwing 100 balls to me Brees will likely have a % completion average of about 0.  Does that mean he was inaccurate?  Of course not.   

Accuracy can only be measured by giving a QB a specific target and asking him to hit the target.  If he surrounds the target but doesn't hit it right on the nose he's accurate.  He's not terribly precise but he's accurate. 

Completion percentage as you so rightly point out has considerably more variables associated with it.  It would be like comparing accuracy of a rifle shooter firing at a stationary target vs. one that is randomly moved.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

If Newton is the ceiling, which seems to be a common theme around here, is that good enough? I think you could make a case that it isn't. 

Carolina has invested in quite a few weapons for Cam and he's still been a pretty average passer for 7/8 seasons. 

 

 

Outside of Steve smith their leading receiver every year is almost always Greg Olsen.  They finally invested in WR more with DJ moore.  Benjamin/Funchess were low catch rate guys with no speed.  Hopefully Buffalo is getting away from that strategy, as i think Carolina is moving on from that as well.

 

Cam Newton is a former MVP - His team has made the playoffs in 4 of 6 years and he typically has his offense in the top half to top 10 in the league.  He's probably also playing banged up more than most QBs during that period.

[TheElectricCompany]

11 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

That would be an inaccurate description of what we all saw AFTER Allen came back from his injury. 

 

Got it. I wonder if the stats support that theory. Of course, they don't.

I'd love for stats to be in his corner for once, besides "throws the ball in air really far". 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2019 by TheElectricCompany

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Got it. I wonder if the stats support that theory. Of course, they don't.

That's Josh Allen in a nutshell. Near the bottom in every statistical category except "throws the ball in the air really far". 

 

 

 

 

We did try quite a few receivers out there this year - with varying degrees of futility.

 

Benjamin had a 37% catch rate on 62 targets.  Clay was sub 60.... zay was 55 (still a massive upgrade over 2017).  Pryor caught 2 of 8 targets.  Holmes was at 52.2.

 

Nobody was pulling in 50/50 balls.  Benjamin was dogging routes.  Some of these guys had bad hands.

 

I get that these are excuses - but in the sample size of 320 attempts (25 completions adds almost 8% to his number) they kind of add up.  Inconsistent play and effort, as well as people just trying to learn the playbook. 

 

Hopefully a full camp as the starter, improved line play, and improved relationship with his receivers will boost this number.  

 

[C.Biscuit97]

15 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I think their  playing style is similar but there personalities are different and that is what I am banking on will be the difference between these two as far as career trajectories go. Newton has always had and pursues interests outside of football in terms of fashion etc. There is nothing wrong with that per se but I just don’t get the sense that Newton is fully committed to his team and getting better as a player. There has to be some competitive drive to make a player continually push themselves to improve and I think Newton lacks some of that drive. You can see that he has improved very little as a passer since entering the league and his physical skills will only continue to diminish. I see Allen as more driven and much more willing to do what it takes for the team and for himself to get better. Allen appears to be a much better leader (no sulking on sidelines) and he has full backing of his team. Remember Steve Smith questioned Cams leadership early on and that has not been an issue with Allen. So I believe Allen can and will improve more as a passer as the years go on and he will be an excellent leader on the team. That could be enough to make Allen and the Bills regular contenders as Newton and the Panthers have been close even with his faults. 

Cam Newton is completely undervalued on this board.  He is a top 10 QB.  If Allen is 75% as good as Newton, it will be a great pick.  Cam, despite his flaws, has been really, really good since college.

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

You aren't debunking. You're disagreeing.

 

I do appreciate the effort. Impressive.

 

As you say, though, it's subjective. And your conclusions disagree with everyone else's. And we all know how you feel about Josh Allen (and Tyrod and another one or two before that). You are a huge fan, to the point of apparent wackiness at times, of whichever Bills QB is your fave.

 

As for your methodology, you again have the problem that you have showed over and over in your QB studies through the years. You give only your total conclusion, not breaking things down at all. I've pointed this out to you before, and you've simply ignored it each and every time, telling me it's not necessary to break things down. In fact, it's extremely necessary, because it means the only way to check your work is to exactly duplicate it and look at every play of the season. Effectively unrepeatable. 

 

Except of course by the experts and people who put in the effort because they're paid to do so. Those folks have already already done the same work, and as you yourself point out, they disagree with your conclusions.

 

If you'd broken it down, giving totals for each game for instance, it would've been easy for someone on these boards to check a game or two and see if your per game totals were on target. But as is your method, you don't provide details - no gross numbers, no game by game breakdowns, no nothing except your percentage conclusions - making checks all but impossible.

 

Thanks for the effort. If you'd given a reasonable chance to check, I'd have done so. But you never do, though I've asked before and it wouldn't have required much extra effort. It's not surprising you're not now.

 

Which leaves no choice but to point out that as you yourself point out, you're a huge Josh Allen fan and you're disagreeing with everyone else who did the work. Their work is just more believable, as they don't much care how the tallies come out.

 

I do admire - seriously - your willingness to put in this huge amount of work. As I said, very impressive.

 

I have overall numbers on the season along with game by game numbers. I don't have specific details on which throw I thought was catchable and which wasn't, but we can talk individual throws if you want.

 

I'll post those numbers later.

 

As you can see, the OP was time consuming. You're going to see that the math checks out as far as %s go.

 

 

I'm disagreeing with folks like Fahey and PFF because I actually watched all the plays from those 5 QBs and collated data according to what my eyes saw. It's subjective for me just as it is for them, why do you think they have different numbers?

 

And on another note, VERY aware of my subjectivity, I feel I erred on the side of uncatchable with Allen and on the side of catchable with the other QBs.

 

One thing this exercise actually made me regret was every time I forked out money to PFF and the couple times I bought Fahey's QB catalogue.

 

With gamepass available, it's much better to do your own analysis.

 

I'd encourage you to do the same 

[teef]

36 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Completion percentage still doesn't equal accuracy. And that doesn't mean Allen is blameless. If he doesn't take an easy checkdown or he misreads the field, his completion percentage will suffer for reasons that have nothing to do with accuracy but are nevertheless his fault. The point of the OP isn't that Allen is a perfect QB, it's that his accuracy concerns are overblown.

I stick by what I've said - Allen will never improve his accuracy significantly from where it is now, but it is already good enough. What he needs to improve is his ability to read the field and make quick throws. He was less accurate than usual in the final game but he had over a 65% completion anyways because he made good reads and his receivers didn't drop the ball. He had one of his most accurate games against Detroit but finished around 50% completion. It isn't as simple as that.

this has been my take as well.  it's never really been allen's accuracy as much as his been his decision making.  not that we haven't seen him throw a number of errant passes, but if he would stop throwing 30 yards plus when it's 3rd and 6, his numbers would improve.  he just doesn't throw a lot of simple, high completion type passes yet.

26 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Allen goes downfield more than any of those QB's.  He's a risk taker.

 

If you're saying there isn't a difference in the throws he makes, it's like saying there isn't a difference between shooting a free throw and a 3 pointer.  

Not to mention, Allen was a rookie.  QB's do not all develop at the same rate.  To say Allen didn't improve as the season went on isn't correct.

exactly.  he loves to go for the gusto.

[row_33]

32 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

He already does but still does bail early too many times.  He just needs to be more consistent.  

 

Mahomes has a sixth sense of matadoring in the pocket

 

Allen has lots of potential and lots of room for improvement

 

it's nice to look forward to next season, for a change

 

 

[zonabb]

Didn't read the entire after the first sentence: First off, about accuracy: why do we talk about it like it's an Olympic medal? 

 

The reality is simple. The more accurate a QB is, the more first downs. The more first downs, the more TDs. The more TDs, the more likely you win. The more INTs, the less potential points you score and the higher potential for your opponent to score.

 

Any argument suggesting it's not important is merely an argument in support of the a player you like and not in what it takes to win games. 

 

4 Championship QBs 2018 percentage and the percentage points above Allen's 52.8%:

 

Brady: 65.8 (+13)

Mahomes: 66.0 (+13.2)

Brees: 74.4 (+21.6)

Goff: 64.9 (+12.1)

 

And Goff is 20th in the league! That's how bad Allen was, which was 33/33 of qualified QBs. So if you think that's OK and you can win with that, that's a fallacy you can enjoy.

 

 

[racketmaster]

12 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Cam Newton is completely undervalued on this board.  He is a top 10 QB.  If Allen is 75% as good as Newton, it will be a great pick.  Cam, despite his flaws, has been really, really good since college.

Maybe but I think most football fans agree Cam has been at least an above average qb. At times he has achieved elite level such as 2015. But if we are being honest, Cam has not been a grinder at getting better and he has relied mostly on his immense physical ability as a runner and strong armed passer. However, he has declined some as a quarterback since 2015 as his physical style of play has begun to take its toll. He has not developed enough in the mental aspect of the game and with timing, footwork and anticipation. When his career is all said and done, I think most will agree that he left something on the table. I’m not saying he has to be Brady level driven but if you look at most of the long term successful quarterbacks, they tend to be very driven and always looking to make improvements in their game. I think Allen has some of that drive in him and I believe that will help him long term. 

Edited January 15, 2019 by racketmaster

[C.Biscuit97]

10 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Maybe but I think most football fans agree Cam has been at least an above average qb. At times he has achieved elite level such as 2015. But if we are being honest, Cam has not been a grinder at getting better and he has relied mostly on his immense physical ability as a runner and strong armed passer. However, he has declined some as a quarterback since 2015 as his physical style of play has begun to take its toll. He has not developed enough in the mental aspect of the game and with timing, footwork and anticipation. When his career is all said and done, I think most will agree that he left something on the table. I’m not saying he has to be Brady level driven but if you look at most of the long term successful quarterbacks, they tend to be very driven and always looking to make improvements in their game. I think Allen has some of that drive in him and I believe that will help him long term. 

Cam had his highest completion % this year at 68%.  And this was with a shoulder issue.  I think he is undervalued here because people don’t like his attitude.  JMo, we are doing Allen a disservice to compare him to Cam.  Cam is awesome.

 

but your point about the physical aspect of the game hurting Newton is very valid.  And it’s something, as great as Allen is at running, he needs to be careful about. No matter how big and strong you are, those hits catch up to you. You still need to win primarily from the pocket.

[racketmaster]

23 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I have overall numbers on the season along with game by game numbers. I don't have specific details on which throw I thought was catchable and which wasn't, but we can talk individual throws if you want.

 

I'll post those numbers later.

 

As you can see, the OP was time consuming. You're going to see that the math checks out as far as %s go.

 

 

I'm disagreeing with folks like Fahey and PFF because I actually watched all the plays from those 5 QBs and collated data according to what my eyes saw. It's subjective for me just as it is for them, why do you think they have different numbers?

 

And on another note, VERY aware of my subjectivity, I feel I erred on the side of uncatchable with Allen and on the side of catchable with the other QBs.

 

One thing this exercise actually made me regret was every time I forked out money to PFF and the couple times I bought Fahey's QB catalogue.

 

With gamepass available, it's much better to do your own analysis.

 

I'd encourage you to do the same 

Great work and probably gives you a much better feel for all of the rookie quarterbacks. I have tried watching at least 3-4 games of each of the other quarterbacks but have not watched every single pass for the entire year and charted each of them. Excellent work. 

 

As much as some may say you are a biased Bills fan, one could also say that much of the media analysis has been biased against Allen. His “lack of accuracy” is a regular topic of discussion and has been focused on more than any of the other quarterbacks. When Allen throws a bad pass it is quickly put on Twitter so that he can be made fun of while I have seen bad passes from the other rookies that never get criticized. The analytics guys are especially invested in Allen’s failure so they can be equally biased when charting throws. 

 

One thing that may add even more value to the work you have done, is to pick 1 or 2 of the experienced elite quarterbacks and chart their throws as well. It might be interesting to see where a few of the top guys stand in relation to the rookies. It could answer the question of how far Allen and the other rookies need to go to get to the top. 

Edited January 15, 2019 by racketmaster

[LSHMEAB]

45 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Allen goes downfield more than any of those QB's.  He's a risk taker.

 

If you're saying there isn't a difference in the throws he makes, it's like saying there isn't a difference between shooting a free throw and a 3 pointer.  

Not to mention, Allen was a rookie.  QB's do not all develop at the same rate.  To say Allen didn't improve as the season went on isn't correct.

Risk taking is fine. Since this thread is predicated on sheer statistics, Allen's YPA is 6.5. Not very good. Now we can point to a whole host of "reasons" for that number, but it's an important statistic and something that needs to drastically improve even if you want to discount completion percentage.

 

If his YPA is up near 8 and his completion percentage is 58 percent, that argument will hold up.

[racketmaster]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Cam had his highest completion % this year at 68%.  And this was with a shoulder issue.  I think he is undervalued here because people don’t like his attitude.  JMo, we are doing Allen a disservice to compare him to Cam.  Cam is awesome.

 

but your point about the physical aspect of the game hurting Newton is very valid.  And it’s something, as great as Allen is at running, he needs to be careful about. No matter how big and strong you are, those hits catch up to you. You still need to win primarily from the pocket.

I watched a bunch of Carolina games this year and would be willing to bet his air yards went down from his early years. He was throwing a ton of check downs to McCaffery (the man has double digit targets seemingly every week). He also threw a bunch of short passes and wr screens to Samuel and Moore.  All 3 players are explosive with the ball in their hands and could make plays after the catch so the strategy makes sense. But the amount of easy throws are what made his completion % sky rocket not that he became more accurate. And as you can see the increase in completion % did not cause them to be any better than they had before in terms of wins and losses. 

[CincyBillsFan]

As others have pointed out one of the things forcing Allen to throw downfield was the number of times the offense was in 2nd or 3rd and LONG.  Negative yardage running plays on 1st down; numerous holding penalties and false starts tended to leave the Bills in a lot of long yardage situations.  In fact looking back over Allen's highlights you see excellent pocket presence and accuracy on throws he made on 2nd & 3rd and long.  

 

But if folks want high completion percentages and lots of check down passes re-watch the Anderson/Peterman games where you can gorge yourself on all those 8 yard completions on 3rd & 13!  There's a reason the top QB's have high % completions and YPA:  they have the play makers at TE & RB to turn those dump passes into something electric.  They also have very dangerous deep threats which opens up the check downs.  BTW, I think we're actually doing okay with our deep threats.  Now we have to up the play of our TE's & RB's. 

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Love how you didn’t dispute one of my points.  Why are Anderson and Barkley, after like a week with the team, more “accurate” than Allen?  Or that having a rocket doesn’t mean you throw a catchable football?

 

if Allen was on any other team, we would laugh at him and wonder why a team took such an “inaccurate “ qb that high.  He seems like a hard worker and is very exciting.  But despite all the excuses, he is going to need to be a more accurate passer next year. 

 

Were they more accurate or did they have a higher completion percentage? I agree with you that Allen still has some way to go on his accuracy, but I don't love completion percentage as a metric for assessing it.

[racketmaster]

Completion % tells only part of the story in relation to accuracy. There is so much more that goes into the %. How good are the offensive line for protection, how much separation do WRs get, what is the wr/te catching ability and catch radius, what game plan is the offensive coordinator designing. All of the above impacts the qb completion %. If the Bills wanted to get Allen to 70% next year they could by getting better WRs, TEs and pass catching backs and then designing an offense that calls for tons of screens, check downs and quick throws. But completion % does not win games and the Bills would not be taking advantage of any of Allen’s strengths in extending plays and throwing deeper routes. 

 

Here’s another example that I see all the time watching games around the league. It’s something like 3rd and 12 (which happens too much with our lack of running game and penalties) and your qb is obviously throwing. To Allen’s credit he stuck a lot of these 3rd and long throws passed the sticks. Where continually around the league most other quarterbacks take an easy check down of 5 yards and hope the recipient runs for the first down which regularly does not happen. The qb is very content taking the minimal risk and punting. That counts as an easy completion but often does the team no good because they punt. Where Allen attempts to stick a lower percentage throw in order to get the first down. It may adversely impact his completion percentage but if he hits 50% of those on third and longs he is probably doing better than the check down and hope the runner breaks a few tackles play.