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We need to trade down...


bills6969

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14 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

To draft a QB ahead of Denver.  Likely partners could be Miami, Cinci, Washington and Tenn.

Steelers,  NE and LA will need to draft one soon also. If they really like someone in this class, they may also bite. 

 

I think the Bucs, Giants and Jax all have a high % of drafting QB and they are all ahead of us and one will take Dwayne Haskins.

 

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13 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Herbert staying in school hurt our chances at that. It’s essentially Haskins and Lock with that Duke kid as a maybe. 

I just don't see a flurry of activity to climb up to get those guys. I think they'll fall lower in the 1st in into the 2nd.

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On 1/4/2019 at 10:01 AM, RoyBatty is alive said:

I think the Bucs, Giants and Jax all have a high % of drafting QB and they are all ahead of us and one will take Dwayne Haskins.

I'd take the Bucs off that list - they're all but announcing Bruce Arians at HC who has stated he likes Winston. Could see Jax taking Haskins or trading for a QB, but the Giants problem wasn't so much Eli as it was their OL though they will need a replacement soon. Not sure Haskins would go top 10, or any QB for that matter, given the talent grade levels, and the reach it would be to go QB in the top 10 of this draft pool. 

Edited by ctk232
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On 1/3/2019 at 10:38 PM, bills6969 said:

This is a pretty weak draft a the top.  Bosa is good but he's a lock for #1.  Really think we should trade down and add an additional 2nd or 3rd.  Lots of talent (Simmons, Wilkins, Metcalf, Cajuste, Burns) will be available at the end of the 1st round any way.

I thought we were supposed to lose this year to get high picks....now you want to trade down?

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23 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

I'd take the Bucs off that list - they're all but announcing Bruce Arians at HC who has stated he likes Winston. Could see Jax taking Haskins or trading for a QB, but the Giants problem wasn't so much Eli as it was their OL though they will need a replacement soon. Not sure Haskins would go top 10, or any QB for that matter, given the talent grade levels, and the reach it would be to go QB in the top 10 of this draft pool. 

I think Haskins goes top 10, if anything what the last few years has taught me is teams will "reach" for QBs.  

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2 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I think Haskins goes top 10, if anything what the last few years has taught me is teams will "reach" for QBs.  

Not saying it won't happen, as there is most definitely always "that team." But the chances of it being in the top 10 are still much lower than most other years with QB prospects, or a genuine QB class.

 

It's funny to think about, but to me so much emphasis is put on the QB position in the league now that it almost creates a standard "value" of the position in the draft regardless of the fluctuations in year to year talent. Many equate the position of QB to be a top 10 pick regardless of the talent available, and whether that talent is truly top 10 or even round 1 talent. Regardless of whether he's the best QB in the class this year - is he worth a top 10 pick given the other talent and positional depth on the board? Is he worth a top 10 pick, period? None of it answerable, but you have to recognize how much is played/hyped up simply by context, beyond his demonstrated performance.

 

If I had to guess at this point, I'd say he doesn't get picked up early enough to be top 10, but most likely goes in the first round for those reasons. I should also note that this isn't a commentary on how I feel Haskins will pan out in the NFL, just more so how he currently stacks up against other current draft talent in the context of "value."

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On 1/4/2019 at 7:25 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I have watched a lot of him the past two years and I wouldn't quite go as far as "not good" but I think he is a 3rd round prospect. He might be my QB2 in this class the way it is looking.... but this class is just not a good class. If Drew Lock goes in the first round I think it is a significant reach. If he goes in the top 10 that IS the equivalent of the Bills drafting EJ at #16. At the moment my QB rankings of the ones I have watched are (roughly):

 

Haskins (2nd round);

Lock (3rd round);

Grier (4th round);

Stidham (6th round);

Finley (6th/7th round);

 

Haven't see anything at all of Jones or Rypien so need to catch some of their film.

I think clayton thornson northwestern played his way to the top ten in the draft. That being said i would trade down and select baylor wr denzel mims he is a athletic freak and imo could be the wr from the draft in a few years. Reminds me of eric moulds with more speed.

This draft is deep on wr talent in my opinion but i wouldn't want marquise brown after how fans felt about m. Goodwin staying injured for buffalo so often.

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40 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

Not saying it won't happen, as there is most definitely always "that team." But the chances of it being in the top 10 are still much lower than most other years with QB prospects, or a genuine QB class.

 

It's funny to think about, but to me so much emphasis is put on the QB position in the league now that it almost creates a standard "value" of the position in the draft regardless of the fluctuations in year to year talent. Many equate the position of QB to be a top 10 pick regardless of the talent available, and whether that talent is truly top 10 or even round 1 talent. Regardless of whether he's the best QB in the class this year - is he worth a top 10 pick given the other talent and positional depth on the board? Is he worth a top 10 pick, period? None of it answerable, but you have to recognize how much is played/hyped up simply by context, beyond his demonstrated performance.

 

If I had to guess at this point, I'd say he doesn't get picked up early enough to be top 10, but most likely goes in the first round for those reasons. I should also note that this isn't a commentary on how I feel Haskins will pan out in the NFL, just more so how he currently stacks up against other current draft talent in the context of "value."

  Very reasonable.

 

Look at it another way, the QB position is so damn important and if you dont have your franchise QB you roll the dice, you take a "3rd rd value" in the first, you never know when you are going to land the next Russel Wilson or 6th in Tom Brady.  

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On 1/3/2019 at 10:45 PM, zevo said:

You can want all you want...but it takes two to tango....if it’s a weak draft at the top why would a team give up picks to move up.....

I recall some former gm admitting in an interview, that there's basically multiple offers on each and every pick in the first two/three rounds.  Where a team likes the compensation or not, and if there's a player they really like, determine if a trade is made.

 

So basically yea we'd be able to trade back. It may be a crappy offer though, and crappy offer or good offer depends on who you're asking. 

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On 1/3/2019 at 11:28 PM, RememberTheRockpile said:

This is what the Bills get this year:

1st - 1
2nd - 1
3rd - 1
4th - 2
5th - 2
6th - 1
7th - 2

 

Likely the first 4 rounds picks all make the team. Assume one from the 5th and one more from the 6th and 7th. That is 7 rookies or 13% of the 53 man roster. Imagine trading down in the first for a 1st and a 3rd. Throw in a undrafted rookie and your up to 9 or 17% of your roster. At some point, and I don't know what that point is, the inexperience becomes a liability especially early in the season. IMO, they would be much better served if they traded down and got future draft picks. For example instead of a 1st and a 3rd a 1st and next years 3rd.

Bills had a lot of 1st and 2nd year players on the roster. With all that cap money available, I dont see the need to stockpile draft choices just to fill out the roster. Beane will fill needs in FA and bring in talented rookies. i dont think he cares whether he gets a DT, OT or Edge,etc. at 9,a s long as ti is a "good value" pick, BPA

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On 1/3/2019 at 7:55 PM, Ethan in Portland said:

Agree with the OP and Zevo.  The 3rd guy in this draft probably is as good as the 20th.  QB class is absolute garbage.  Sadly it will be near impossible to find a trade down partner.

Exactly,  we're not finding a trade down partner.  The qb position is usually the only one worthy of someone willing and the qb class is garbage. We'll just have to wait at 9 for bpa....

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On 1/4/2019 at 1:01 PM, RoyBatty is alive said:

I think the Bucs, Giants and Jax all have a high % of drafting QB and they are all ahead of us and one will take Dwayne Haskins.

 

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perhaps but...flacco, foles or wentz, winston , teddy , bradford and possibly carr are all gonna be in play first.

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I was thinking the opposite. With the huge amount of cap space, I'd like to see a trade up if they target someone they really like that'll be off the board before we pick in the 2nd round. BPA at 9 is a comfortable position to be in and with guys like Fant and Metcalf probably hovering around a top 10 pick, no sense in passing that up.

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