A flawed strategy

[WIDE LEFT]

This is a take you hear all the time; it’s treated like gospel - when facing a great QB, you should run the ball, control the clock and thus keep that great QB on the sideline. None of the “experts” who offer this advice ever bother to check just how successful that recommended strategy is. Why bother, it’s common sense right? Well analytics have reviewed this entire concept and discovered that this strategy is an overwhelming failure. The Buffalo Bills, ever oblivious to analytics, employed this very strategy when playing the Pats last year. Predictably ( if you bother to familiarize yourself with facts) they weren’t even competitive against the Pats last year - two losses by 20+ points each game. Well an “expert” would say, you have a very limited QB and u can’t go toe to toe with Brady blah blah blah. Well there was a team that faced this same situation- the Eagles last year heading into the Super Bowl. They had a very limited (backup) QB but a great defense, a defense far more talented than the Bills D. Experts would advise - play great D, run ball, control clock, keep Brady off the field. But Philly head coach Pederson does pay attention to analytics, and did just the opposite. His great & talented defense did not force the Pats to punt once during this game. A run first, ball/clock control offense would have been a disaster, as it was for the Bills last year and in many years past. Philadelphia won by paying attention to analytics. 

Whatever offensive philosophy Bills adopt tomorrow they will most likely lose. But a loss is guaranteed if they stick to what has been a miserable failure last year, and what analytics has shown to be a miserable failure overall. And I am confident that the Bills will stick to this formula that has never succeeded for them, and never will. Why base your decisions on evidence, when your “gut” tells you different. 

There may be a a day when Bills pay attention to analytics, but many losses will happen before that. Tomorrow night will be a disaster.

[John from Riverside]

7 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

This is a take you hear all the time; it’s treated like gospel - when facing a great QB, you should run the ball, control the clock and thus keep that great QB on the sideline. None of the “experts” who offer this advice ever bother to check just how successful that recommended strategy is. Why bother, it’s common sense right? Well analytics have reviewed this entire concept and discovered that this strategy is an overwhelming failure. The Buffalo Bills, ever oblivious to analytics, employed this very strategy when playing the Pats last year. Predictably ( if you bother to familiarize yourself with facts) they weren’t even competitive against the Pats last year - two losses by 20+ points each game. Well an “expert” would say, you have a very limited QB and u can’t go toe to toe with Brady blah blah blah. Well there was a team that faced this same situation- the Eagles last year heading into the Super Bowl. They had a very limited (backup) QB but a great defense, a defense far more talented than the Bills D. Experts would advise - play great D, run ball, control clock, keep Brady off the field. But Philly head coach Pederson does pay attention to analytics, and did just the opposite. His great & talented defense did not force the Pats to punt once during this game. A run first, ball/clock control offense would have been a disaster, as it was for the Bills last year and in many years past. Philadelphia won by paying attention to analytics. 

Whatever offensive philosophy Bills adopt tomorrow they will most likely lose. But a loss is guaranteed if they stick to what has been a miserable failure last year, and what analytics has shown to be a miserable failure overall. And I am confident that the Bills will stick to this formula that has never succeeded for them, and never will. Why base your decisions on evidence, when your “gut” tells you different. 

There may be a a day when Bills pay attention to analytics, but many losses will happen before that. Tomorrow night will be a disaster.

You play to the strengths of your team if you want to win the game.....

 

The strength of this team is creating turnovers.....they will need to have several to be competative in this game

[WIDE LEFT]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

You play to the strengths of your team if you want to win the game.....

 

The strength of this team is creating turnovers.....they will need to have several to be competative in this game

And do what when u get the turnover? That’s the point. Run the ball into nine man fronts and then punt? And by the way, if your entire strategy is based on Brady & the Pats turning the ball over - well good luck with that. Pay attention to evidence, not hope & prayers, the Pats don’t turn the ball over very often. 

[vorpma]

Where do they come from?

[White Linen]

13 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

This is a take you hear all the time; it’s treated like gospel - when facing a great QB, you should run the ball, control the clock and thus keep that great QB on the sideline. None of the “experts” who offer this advice ever bother to check just how successful that recommended strategy is. Why bother, it’s common sense right? Well analytics have reviewed this entire concept and discovered that this strategy is an overwhelming failure. The Buffalo Bills, ever oblivious to analytics, employed this very strategy when playing the Pats last year. Predictably ( if you bother to familiarize yourself with facts) they weren’t even competitive against the Pats last year - two losses by 20+ points each game. Well an “expert” would say, you have a very limited QB and u can’t go toe to toe with Brady blah blah blah. Well there was a team that faced this same situation- the Eagles last year heading into the Super Bowl. They had a very limited (backup) QB but a great defense, a defense far more talented than the Bills D. Experts would advise - play great D, run ball, control clock, keep Brady off the field. But Philly head coach Pederson does pay attention to analytics, and did just the opposite. His great & talented defense did not force the Pats to punt once during this game. A run first, ball/clock control offense would have been a disaster, as it was for the Bills last year and in many years past. Philadelphia won by paying attention to analytics. 

Whatever offensive philosophy Bills adopt tomorrow they will most likely lose. But a loss is guaranteed if they stick to what has been a miserable failure last year, and what analytics has shown to be a miserable failure overall. And I am confident that the Bills will stick to this formula that has never succeeded for them, and never will. Why base your decisions on evidence, when your “gut” tells you different. 

There may be a a day when Bills pay attention to analytics, but many losses will happen before that. Tomorrow night will be a disaster.

 

FYI, that is not what is said anymore.    There's been a proven method on how to handle a great QB - pass rush.  

[WIDE LEFT]

Just now, White Linen said:

 

FYI, that is not what is said anymore.    There's been a proven method on how to handle a great QB - pass rush.  

That’s not said anymore? I heard this multiple places last week, including the John Murphy show. Just heard it today on an NFL network show. You hear this ALL THE TIME. If u are listening 

[Boatdrinks]

The Eagles had the offensive talent to match up with the Pats* and decided ifthey were going down it would be swinging. Nothing less. It was an aggressive strategy that worked. The problem for the Bills is they have none of what the Eagles did on offense. Creativity, WR and TE talent, a bruising “ closer” at RB etc. Their strategy will likely be the failed one you describe ,to limit offensive possessions for NE so they don’t get embarrassed. If a team has a decent offense, the strategy should be to take chances and score points. Then hope you get the ball last or leave a very limited clock for NE at the end. This almost worked for the Chiefs a couple weeks ago, but they scored too quickly rather than running a 4 minute offense. It bit them in the end. 

4 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

FYI, that is not what is said anymore.    There's been a proven method on how to handle a great QB - pass rush.  

The only thing that’s ever affected Brady to any great degree is middle pressure. They do a good job of protecting in the middle of the Oline. If you can’t get through there consistently , the other stuff won’t matter all that much. 

[billsredneck1]

good lord tryin to read that  long paragraph killed my buzz. by the time i finished i forgot what it's about.  please start another thread.

 

[WIDE LEFT]

1 minute ago, billsredneck1 said:

good lord tryin to read that  long paragraph killed my buzz. by the time i finished i forgot what it's about.  please start another thread.

 

I know - anything more than a post saying “Go Bills” is a challenge for many on this board

[Roundybout]

1 minute ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I know - anything more than a post saying “Go Bills” is a challenge for many on this board

 

Thats unnecessary 

[Gray Beard]

You never really completed the thought in your OP. 

 

You said the Eagles never made the Pats punt.

Are you saying a shootout, high scoring approach is the way to go?

[vorpma]

3 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I know - anything more than a post saying “Go Bills” is a challenge for many on this board

Get a life; maybe we just get tired of the non stop attacks!

7 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

good lord tryin to read that  long paragraph killed my buzz. by the time i finished i forgot what it's about.  please start another thread.

 

Seriously, where do they come from!

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Thank you for sharing your completely original and interesting take.

 

 

[billsredneck1]

2 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

Thats unnecessary 

i know, right?  still not sure what that pass out inducing op was,,,,

[billsfan_34]

24 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

And do what when u get the turnover? That’s the point. Run the ball into nine man fronts and then punt? And by the way, if your entire strategy is based on Brady & the Pats turning the ball over - well good luck with that. Pay attention to evidence, not hope & prayers, the Pats don’t turn the ball over very often. 

Trends never lie- the Pats will control this game and hand us another L.

[WIDE LEFT]

1 minute ago, Gray Beard said:

You never really completed the thought in your OP. 

 

You said the Eagles never made the Pats punt.

Are you saying a shootout, high scoring approach is the way to go?

I am saying that in the NFL as it is in 2018 it’s virtually impossible to stop a great QB. Our defense is nowhere near as talented as Eagles defense, but they could not even slow Brady down. Eagles head coach Pederson realized this, and went toe to toe, pass for pass, against the Pats. It was his only choice, and it worked. A run centered offense would have never kept pace with Brady that day - he knew he had to out score him, even with a limited/backup QB. Eagles only punted once.

[Augie]

16 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

good lord tryin to read that  long paragraph killed my buzz. by the time i finished i forgot what it's about.  please start another thread.

 

 

I think you left out the “don’t”.  ?

 

 

If we try to get into a shootout, maybe the over/under would go to 80 instead of 40. We might still account for only about 3 of those points. Belichick seems to enjoy that stuff.  

 

.

Edited October 28, 2018 by Augie

[ColoradoBills]

13 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I know - anything more than a post saying “Go Bills” is a challenge for many on this board

https://www.dailywritingtips.com/why-we-need-paragraphs/

 

Reading a blog post or a web article should be easy. Some web pages have large blocks of text with very few breaks between them. When I see those, my brain does the TMI (too much information) dance and my eyes move on until they find something easier to look at. When you try to process an unbroken block of text, it’s like trying to eat a whole apple pie in one gulp. You may be able to do it, but you’ll probably get indigestion or choke in the attempt. That’s why paragraphs are important.

 

Go Bills!

[billsredneck1]

we are gonna embarrass  marcia and his sideline sextoy friend. bills 31-28. ...not sure which qb will save the day but....12th man brings it!

[Gray Beard]

5 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I am saying that in the NFL as it is in 2018 it’s virtually impossible to stop a great QB. Our defense is nowhere near as talented as Eagles defense, but they could not even slow Brady down. Eagles head coach Pederson realized this, and went toe to toe, pass for pass, against the Pats. It was his only choice, and it worked. A run centered offense would have never kept pace with Brady that day - he knew he had to out score him, even with a limited/backup QB. Eagles only punted once.

I get what you’re saying, but the “run, run, pass, punt” offense of the Bills won’t cut it. 

If you could change that pattern, especially against a mediocre opponent, then I would be eternally grateful. I’m sure that’s what you’re advocating, but I just don’t think the Bills brain trust will do it. 

[Mickey]

I didn't need analytics to reach this conclusion. It is a game of alternating possessions, the fewer your opponent gets, the fewer you get. If Tom Brady scores on 20% of his possessions and your offense scores on 5% of its possessions, you lose no matter how few possession each team has. Pass rush and hopefully turnovers on defense and on offense, score, score and score some more. 

 

In the end though, no amount of strategy is going to make up for a massive talent deficit. I'm hoping for 40mph winds tomorrow night.

[Real McClappy]

18 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I am saying that in the NFL as it is in 2018 it’s virtually impossible to stop a great QB. Our defense is nowhere near as talented as Eagles defense, but they could not even slow Brady down. Eagles head coach Pederson realized this, and went toe to toe, pass for pass, against the Pats. It was his only choice, and it worked. A run centered offense would have never kept pace with Brady that day - he knew he had to out score him, even with a limited/backup QB. Eagles only punted once.

You said it twice so I'll bite. How is a limited QB able to drop laser dimes all night and put up 44pts to become SB MVP? Please sign me up for this kinda limited QB.

 

Defenses in today's NFL mean pretty much jack squat. You need a arsenal on Offense to score at will to be competitive today.  A strong pass rush is def worth while though to force erratic throws or take sacks. 

 

Our FO is playing checkers trying to build up our D. It better change next FA and draft or this tenure could be over during our at the end of 2019

Edited October 28, 2018 by Real McCoy

[WIDE LEFT]

13 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

You said it twice so I'll bite. How is a limited QB able to drop laser dimes all night and put up 44pts to become SB MVP? Please sign me up for this kinda limited QB.

 

Defenses in today's NFL mean pretty much jack squat. You need a arsenal on Offense to score at will to be competitive today.  A strong pass rush is def worth while though to force erratic throws or take sacks. 

 

Our FO is playing checkers trying to build up our D. It better change next FA and draft or this tenure could be over during our at the end of 2019

 

14 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

You said it twice so I'll bite. How is a limited QB able to drop laser dimes all night and put up 44pts to become SB MVP? Please sign me up for this kinda limited QB.

 

Defenses in today's NFL mean pretty much jack squat. You need a arsenal on Offense to score at will to be competitive today.  A strong pass rush is def worth while though to force erratic throws or take sacks. 

 

Our FO is playing checkers trying to build up our D. It better change next FA and draft or this tenure could be over during our at the end of 2019

Well this QB was/is so limited that he is currently a back up; thought about quitting football two years ago and in fact nobody in the NFL considers him more than a limited, backup QB. You think he is sitting on the bench because he is some type of hall of fame talent? A decent QB with a good offensive plan can, occasionally, produce great results. But just occasionally. See Ryan Fitzpatrick - but they do give you a chance - occasionally 

[Real McClappy]

4 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

 

Well this QB was/is so limited that he is currently a back up; thought about quitting football two years ago and in fact nobody in the NFL considers him more than a limited, backup QB. You think he is sitting on the bench because he is some type of hall of fame talent? A decent QB with a good offensive plan can, occasionally, produce great results. But just occasionally. See Ryan Fitzpatrick - but they do give you a chance - occasionally 

Guess you missed the NFC championship game were he destroyed Minny with a 78% completion percentage? in 4 playoff games has a 1200yds with a 72% completion rate? He is so limited. 

He contemplated retirement which is true, that is the Jeff Fisher effect though. Goff thought about it as well with only one season. A incompetent Rams team at the time is why he is a current BU. Next year when he leaves to start elsewhere and joins a half competent team you will see the "Someone should be fired over Foles" threads on TBD forums.

 

Again, please sign me up for limited

[K-9]

1 hour ago, WIDE LEFT said:

This is a take you hear all the time; it’s treated like gospel - when facing a great QB, you should run the ball, control the clock and thus keep that great QB on the sideline. None of the “experts” who offer this advice ever bother to check just how successful that recommended strategy is. Why bother, it’s common sense right? Well analytics have reviewed this entire concept and discovered that this strategy is an overwhelming failure. The Buffalo Bills, ever oblivious to analytics, employed this very strategy when playing the Pats last year. Predictably ( if you bother to familiarize yourself with facts) they weren’t even competitive against the Pats last year - two losses by 20+ points each game. Well an “expert” would say, you have a very limited QB and u can’t go toe to toe with Brady blah blah blah. Well there was a team that faced this same situation- the Eagles last year heading into the Super Bowl. They had a very limited (backup) QB but a great defense, a defense far more talented than the Bills D. Experts would advise - play great D, run ball, control clock, keep Brady off the field. But Philly head coach Pederson does pay attention to analytics, and did just the opposite. His great & talented defense did not force the Pats to punt once during this game. A run first, ball/clock control offense would have been a disaster, as it was for the Bills last year and in many years past. Philadelphia won by paying attention to analytics. 

Whatever offensive philosophy Bills adopt tomorrow they will most likely lose. But a loss is guaranteed if they stick to what has been a miserable failure last year, and what analytics has shown to be a miserable failure overall. And I am confident that the Bills will stick to this formula that has never succeeded for them, and never will. Why base your decisions on evidence, when your “gut” tells you different. 

There may be a a day when Bills pay attention to analytics, but many losses will happen before that. Tomorrow night will be a disaster.

Did you see the performance Foles put up in the playoffs? Backup or not, nothing about his performance in either the NFC championship game or the Super Bowl was “limited.” 

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

This is a take you hear all the time; it’s treated like gospel - when facing a great QB, you should run the ball, control the clock and thus keep that great QB on the sideline. None of the “experts” who offer this advice ever bother to check just how successful that recommended strategy is. Why bother, it’s common sense right? Well analytics have reviewed this entire concept and discovered that this strategy is an overwhelming failure. The Buffalo Bills, ever oblivious to analytics, employed this very strategy when playing the Pats last year. Predictably ( if you bother to familiarize yourself with facts) they weren’t even competitive against the Pats last year - two losses by 20+ points each game. Well an “expert” would say, you have a very limited QB and u can’t go toe to toe with Brady blah blah blah. Well there was a team that faced this same situation- the Eagles last year heading into the Super Bowl. They had a very limited (backup) QB but a great defense, a defense far more talented than the Bills D. Experts would advise - play great D, run ball, control clock, keep Brady off the field. But Philly head coach Pederson does pay attention to analytics, and did just the opposite. His great & talented defense did not force the Pats to punt once during this game. A run first, ball/clock control offense would have been a disaster, as it was for the Bills last year and in many years past. Philadelphia won by paying attention to analytics. 

Whatever offensive philosophy Bills adopt tomorrow they will most likely lose. But a loss is guaranteed if they stick to what has been a miserable failure last year, and what analytics has shown to be a miserable failure overall. And I am confident that the Bills will stick to this formula that has never succeeded for them, and never will. Why base your decisions on evidence, when your “gut” tells you different. 

There may be a a day when Bills pay attention to analytics, but many losses will happen before that. Tomorrow night will be a disaster.

 

People need to stop using the word "analystics", as if they have any idea what it means or the context to which it's applied. 

[billsredneck1]

1 hour ago, Real McCoy said:

Guess you missed the NFC championship game were he destroyed Minny with a 78% completion percentage? in 4 playoff games has a 1200yds with a 72% completion rate? He is so limited. 

He contemplated retirement which is true, that is the Jeff Fisher effect though. Goff thought about it as well with only one season. A incompetent Rams team at the time is why he is a current BU. Next year when he leaves to start elsewhere and joins a half competent team you will see the "Someone should be fired over Foles" threads on TBD forums.

 

Again, please sign me up for limited

...and they will move him before the draft. his price will be stupid. make a play for him now or forever hold your picks..