DCOrange Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 (edited) His 6 most likely to improve: Cleveland Jacksonville Houston LA Chargers Chicago Indy http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24208950/nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-win-more-games-2018-projections-schedule My guess of who he'll pick as most likely to regress: Tennessee Buffalo Carolina Arizona Miami Pittsburgh Edit: Barnwell has posted his article of the 6 teams most likely to regress now: The only one I got wrong was Miami. He had Minnesota instead. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24228491/nfl-teams-most-likely-decline-win-fewer-games-2018-projections-schedule Edited July 31, 2018 by DCOrange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted July 31, 2018 Author Share Posted July 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Bill Barnwell has a bizarre dedication to Tyrod Taylor. It’s no surprise the Bills fall on this last. He was one of the first in the national media to defend him through junk statistics and implied racism when discussing Tyrod’s benching for Peterman. Just not a fan of this guy. As I noted, the Bills aren't officially on the list yet. His article on teams most likely to regress is coming later this week, but I'd bet any amount of money that they will be featured in it. Literally every metric that Barnwell uses for these articles suggest a pretty sharp drop off this year for Buffalo. I should also note that of the 12 teams he mentioned in last year's articles, he was correct on 11 of them (Cleveland being the one he got wrong...he expected them to win at least 2 games last year). The prior year, he only made predictions for 6 teams, but he got all of them right, so he's 17/18 the past two years on this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 I don’t see how the Jaguars are likely to improve. I’d say it’s more likely that last year was a fluke and they go the other way. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted July 31, 2018 Author Share Posted July 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: I don’t see how the Jaguars are likely to improve. I’d say it’s more likely that last year was a fluke and they go the other way. Yeah, they stand out as one that he could be wrong about. It's basically because the numbers indicate that a team that played like Jacksonville did last year usually wins 12 games rather than 10, so therefore, if they play that well again this year, they're likely to improve. Seems very possible that it was just a flukey season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 16 minutes ago, DCOrange said: As I noted, the Bills aren't officially on the list yet. His article on teams most likely to regress is coming later this week, but I'd bet any amount of money that they will be featured in it. Literally every metric that Barnwell uses for these articles suggest a pretty sharp drop off this year for Buffalo. I should also note that of the 12 teams he mentioned in last year's articles, he was correct on 11 of them (Cleveland being the one he got wrong...he expected them to win at least 2 games last year). The prior year, he only made predictions for 6 teams, but he got all of them right, so he's 17/18 the past two years on this. Being 100% objective this year, picking the Bills to take a step back from 9-7 is a no-brainer. Give me that bet everyday. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 30 minutes ago, DCOrange said: As I noted, the Bills aren't officially on the list yet. His article on teams most likely to regress is coming later this week, but I'd bet any amount of money that they will be featured in it. Literally every metric that Barnwell uses for these articles suggest a pretty sharp drop off this year for Buffalo. I should also note that of the 12 teams he mentioned in last year's articles, he was correct on 11 of them (Cleveland being the one he got wrong...he expected them to win at least 2 games last year). The prior year, he only made predictions for 6 teams, but he got all of them right, so he's 17/18 the past two years on this. I can't disagree. Most others are predicting a decline this season. Many mock drafters are already projecting the Bills with a top 5 pick and some #1 overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 22 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Apparently you didn’t read where I said I didn’t care for his opinion after he brought up racism in the decision to sit Tyrod - something that was completely baseless and unwarranted. While I don’t disagree that the Bills are likely to regress from 9-7, I just think the guy has his own agenda and is....quite frankly an idiot in my opinionp. Look, I wasn’t a big Tyrod Guy. I thought it was time to move on (wasn’t a big fan of the draft pick but that’s another story). But: how many times do teams move on from a qb who threw 51 tds to 16 ints, was one of the best running qbs (1,500 yards and 14tds), helped ended a 17 year playoff drought, and made 2 pro bowls. We we all know how flawed TT is but he definitely had some positives too and it’s pretty easy to see why the national media thinks it’s a step back. We forced him into an offense that didn’t fit him and traded away his best receiver a month before the season. Again, I was ready to move on but the Bills did him no favors. and Barnwell is a snooze fest to listen too but he is pretty spot on with his analysis. The Bills making the playoffs last year was a complete fluke (which is about time for us). We mastered Jauron ball. Turnovers are very inconsistent and our offense seems to have taken a big hit and it wasn’t that good to begin with. So so if you are a betting person, you would bet for the Bills to regress. That said, even if they do, if Allen shows signs of being a nfl starter, it will be a successful season. 39 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: I don’t see how the Jaguars are likely to improve. I’d say it’s more likely that last year was a fluke and they go the other way. Yeah, I definitely would have the Jags as a regression time. Unless you bought into Bortles becoming a better qb (I don’t). Their division will be much tougher this year and they have a tougher schedule on paper. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 12 minutes ago, TigerJ said: I can't disagree. Most others are predicting a decline this season. Many mock drafters are already projecting the Bills with a top 5 pick and some #1 overall. and they're always correct....remember many predicted 4 wins last season... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobblehead Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 1 hour ago, DCOrange said: His 6 most likely to improve: Cleveland Jacksonville Houston LA Chargers Chicago Indy http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24208950/nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-win-more-games-2018-projections-schedule My guess of who he'll pick as most likely to regress: Tennessee Buffalo Carolina Arizona Miami Pittsburgh I’m pretty sure the slightly above casual fan could come up with that list. Not exactly skillful analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Wouldn't 1 win be an improvement for the Browns? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted July 31, 2018 Author Share Posted July 31, 2018 Update to the OP: Barnwell has posted the article for the 6 most likely to regress: I got 5/6 right; the only one I got wrong was that he included Minnesota instead of Miami. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24228491/nfl-teams-most-likely-decline-win-fewer-games-2018-projections-schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kwai San Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 1 hour ago, TigerJ said: I can't disagree. Most others are predicting a decline this season. Many mock drafters are already projecting the Bills with a top 5 pick and some #1 overall. Top 5 maybe but #1??? Nah Cleveland with that hot mess of a team will get that AGAIN this year....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 43 minutes ago, DCOrange said: Update to the OP: Barnwell has posted the article for the 6 most likely to regress: I got 5/6 right; the only one I got wrong was that he included Minnesota instead of Miami. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24228491/nfl-teams-most-likely-decline-win-fewer-games-2018-projections-schedule minny is such a good team nad they upgraded at the qb postion and get cook back. if cook is healthy he will be so good. they do play the rams, eagles, saints and pats though so we get some big time games to see how they all match up. i have a hard time seeing them win less than 12-13 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 1 hour ago, bobobonators said: Being 100% objective this year, picking the Bills to take a step back from 9-7 is a no-brainer. Give me that bet everyday. Agreed. As fans we want all of the chips to fall into place, but when your team is switching QBs and appears to have limited offensive weapons it's an easy prediction to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted July 31, 2018 Author Share Posted July 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, eball said: Agreed. As fans we want all of the chips to fall into place, but when your team is switching QBs and appears to have limited offensive weapons it's an easy prediction to make. Even beyond that, all the indicators like record in close games, pythagorean wins, and point differential all suggest the Bills should be significantly worse next year before you even account for the changing of personnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 31 minutes ago, Kwai San said: Top 5 maybe but #1??? Nah Cleveland with that hot mess of a team will get that AGAIN this year....... If you're correct, that will be a fun train wreck to watch. ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fr. Jerk Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 meh. i don't think anyone is surprised if the bills win fewer games this year than last. that's ok as long as we see growth. i just don't get the 2-4 win predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 I find nothing surprising in his analysis of the Bills. The headline could simply read: Until the Bills figure out their starting QB all is a question mark Beyond this the O-line is clearly in flux and they lack outside weapons. To me the only things that might blow up his analysis would be a huge step forward in D and a sufficient enough offense that doesn’t hurt the D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 1 hour ago, aristocrat said: minny is such a good team nad they upgraded at the qb postion and get cook back. if cook is healthy he will be so good. they do play the rams, eagles, saints and pats though so we get some big time games to see how they all match up. i have a hard time seeing them win less than 12-13 games. Minnesota may well get swept by GB with a healthy Aaron Rogers. Plus they play three of the best teams in the league besides GB. That's why you predict regression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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