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Greg Gabriel’s Negative Take on Josh Allen and Trumaine Edmunds (April)


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For anyone that has never heard it before, this dude Pat Moran has a great podcast called Moran-Alytics.  I guess that has been a blogger in Buffalo for nearly a decade and has the change to cover the Bills and Sabres for a few smaller publications.

His podcast is focused largely on Bills and NFL football and he brings on many members of the Buffalo media and former players as well.
 
 
I went through his earlier archives and listened to former NFL scout and WNY native Greg Gabriel in April just before the NFL Draft.  I've followed Greg on Twitter for a few years until he blocked me for disagreeing him. If you follow him, you know he is very much opinionated and outspoken.  He was a staunch critic of Tyrod and a supporter of Peterman, which surprisingly died down after the start in San Diego.  Go figure....
 
Anyway a few months ago, Greg was not a fan of Josh Allen or the majority of the QB's in this years draft.  He said that all of the QB's are "overrated" and thinks it's possible that all but 1 will bust.  He gives Baker Mayfield the best chance at succeeding.  He is unsure about Darnold and feels that Josh Rosen lacks the intangibles to be successful.    
 
(Around 30 minutes) When Allen came up, he pretty much ripped him as a QB prospect.  He said that Josh will be another Kyle Boller or Blaine Gabbert.  A strong-armed QB who lacks the accuracy and mechanics to be successful.  He said that Allen should have had, at minimum a 64% completion percentage in his conference and probably higher given the competition. 
 
Greg believes that these types of risks are the ones that get coaches and GM's fired.  If he were the Bills he would have drafted Mason Rudolph and then taken another QB as well.  He actually thought he might be a top 10 pick!!!!!
 
(Around 36 minutes) When the discussion turns to LB, Greg feels that the Bills would love Roquon Smith and compared him to Luke Kuechley.  He did mention Trumaine Edmunds but said that he lacked the instincts at MLB.  He said that Edmunds reacts instead of anticipating and is basically an OLB playing MLB.  He recommended Vander Esch as a better fit.  
 
If you listen to this interview - you will hear that Greg was very opinionated on these players before the draft in April.  I'm not sure if he has changed his stance since then, but it's clear he is not a fan.
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6 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

This Gabriel can flap his wings all he wants ranting his angelic knowledge of football and most won't know him or cares who he is.

 

Thats the thing that he gets me.  Listen to the interview.  He speaks like he’s the only one who has answers.  He even spends a lot of time putting down writers who do mock drafts.  While he makes some good points, you get the impression that he thinks “my opinion is the only one that matters.” It makes for a good listen but at the same time Greg has never been the GM making the pick.  

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I stop reading/listening when I hear the Boller comparison to Josh Allen. It is just such a lazy analysis over-simplified because both QBs had strong arms but poor completion % coming out of college. These two are/were VERY different prospects.

 

It is way too early to project whether or not Josh Allen will reach his potential in the NFL, but he was genuinely in the discussion to be the #1 overall pick in the draft. That was never the case with Boller.

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2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean a lot of people feel like this.  The Bills will look like geniuses or complete idiots for drafting Allen.  The overwhelming evidence of Allen is he fits the profile of qbs who bust at the next level.  

 

Agree with your first sentence.  I think "complete idiots" is a gross overstatement.  And "overwhelming evidence" of being a bust?  Hardly.  People are lazily looking at completion percentage and assuming that correlates to accuracy without factoring in the scheme, talent, play calling, etc.  I made that mistake myself pre-draft, before I actually took the time to learn more about Allen.

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Opinions are like arseholes - everyone's got 'em and most of them stink.

 

Greg is  a smart guy.  But he's no more authoritative than the scouts and ex-scouts who think highly of Allen.  

 

We won't know who's right until Allen gets to play.

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Allen is a high ceiling, high risk prospect.  That shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. That risk (and the market he will play in) makes him easy to rip.  It’s stupid for anyone to write him off before they see how he develops though. I’m sure not. 

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6 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Agree with your first sentence.  I think "complete idiots" is a gross overstatement.  And "overwhelming evidence" of being a bust?  Hardly.  People are lazily looking at completion percentage and assuming that correlates to accuracy without factoring in the scheme, talent, play calling, etc.  I made that mistake myself pre-draft, before I actually took the time to learn more about Allen.

With al life respect, it’s because you’re a Bills fan and want him to be the guy.  There are guys like Gabbert, Locker, etc who get drafted high and people just ignore their college production or make excuses for their play.  

 

Look, I hope you and the Bills are right.  And as much as people want to blame everyone else for Allen’s problems, he also played with a top 10 defense.  While dominating in college is no guarantee for nfl success, being mediocre in the Mountain West is worrisome. No matter who you play with. Top 10 pick qbs should elevate their teams and players around them.

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4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

With al life respect, it’s because you’re a Bills fan and want him to be the guy.  There are guys like Gabbert, Locker, etc who get drafted high and people just ignore their college production or make excuses for their play.  

 

Look, I hope you and the Bills are right.  And as much as people want to blame everyone else for Allen’s problems, he also played with a top 10 defense.  While dominating in college is no guarantee for nfl success, being mediocre in the Mountain West is worrisome. No matter who you play with. Top 10 pick qbs should elevate their teams and players around them.

 

Which he did.  I think I recall one of his coaches saying they would have won 3 games without him.

 

Football stats don't mean anything without context.  It's a true team sport.   Maybe the other top QB in this draft would have completed even a lower percentage of passes if they had the same supporting cast.  

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41 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

I don't think it's so much Moran-alytics as it is Moron-alytics.  Tiresome at best.

 

Haha well that’s a fair assessment.  Pat is certainly opinionated much like Greg.  I’ll give him credit - he gets good guests both with relevance on a local and national level and his interviews are pretty good too.

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45 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Which he did.  I think I recall one of his coaches saying they would have won 3 games without him.

 

Football stats don't mean anything without context.  It's a true team sport.   Maybe the other top QB in this draft would have completed even a lower percentage of passes if they had the same supporting cast.  

Wyoming has the 9th ranked defense in all of college football.  They gave up 17.5 points/ game (UCLA was 117th and gave up 36.5 points/ game). I’m going on a limb here but it’s easier to win games with a top 10 defense than a bottom 10 defense.

 

myself, I’m not a fan of making excuses for players picked that high.  Allen wasn’t a great college qb.  It seemed very risky to me to take him as the highest drafted qb in franchise history.  He has a lot to prove.  I want him to be great.  But this type of prospect is in every draft and they rarely translate.

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3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Wyoming has the 9th ranked defense in all of college football.  They gave up 17.5 points/ game (UCLA was 117th and gave up 36.5 points/ game). I’m going on a limb here but it’s easier to win games with a top 10 defense than a bottom 10 defense.

 

myself, I’m not a fan of making excuses for players picked that high.  Allen wasn’t a great college qb.  It seemed very risky to me to take him as the highest drafted qb in franchise history.  He has a lot to prove.  I want him to be great.  But this type of prospect is in every draft and they rarely translate.

 

Well statistically speaking the odds are not in his favor.  But I’ve heard the argument that a player’s success has more to do with coaching, scheme, and the plan a team has for his development, as opposed to the QB himself.  

 

Take a look at Jared Goff.  He was looked like a bust his rookie year but McVay came in and upgraded his weapons and accentuated his positives.  He probably doesn’t see that much progress with a different coach/scheme.  

 

As a Bills fan, I think you really have to have faith in Daboll

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10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Wyoming has the 9th ranked defense in all of college football.  They gave up 17.5 points/ game (UCLA was 117th and gave up 36.5 points/ game). I’m going on a limb here but it’s easier to win games with a top 10 defense than a bottom 10 defense.

 

myself, I’m not a fan of making excuses for players picked that high.  Allen wasn’t a great college qb.  It seemed very risky to me to take him as the highest drafted qb in franchise history.  He has a lot to prove.  I want him to be great.  But this type of prospect is in every draft and they rarely translate.

 

The quality of their D is irrelevant in this conversation except as it pertains to wins.

 

Statistically speaking, Allen was not a great college QB.  Partly because he started out in JUCO and came to Wyoming with raw skills and partly because his supporting offensive cast wasn't very good.  When given lemons, Allen made lemonade.  It's all you can really ask.  Some say he was a great college QB - despite the poor stats - because he elevated a bad offense.


Would the other top QBs have been more successful running that Wyoming offense with that scheme and those players against that schedule?  We can speculate but we don't know.

 

Some very smart folks like Allen.  Some don't.  If football scouts and former NFL QBs don't have a consensus opinion on Allen, I won't pretend that I know.  I have a lot of hope but few expectations.  

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Well statistically speaking the odds are not in his favor.  But I’ve heard the argument that a player’s success has more to do with coaching, scheme, and the plan a team has for his development, as opposed to the QB himself.  

 

Take a look at Jared Goff.  He was looked like a bust his rookie year but McVay came in and upgraded his weapons and accentuated his positives.  He probably doesn’t see that much progress with a different coach/scheme.  

 

As a Bills fan, I think you really have to have faith in Daboll

Fair points. Difference is Goff almost threw for 5,000 yards and 43 tds his last year in college.

 

and I guess more of an issue is I don’t trust Daboll or anyone on our staff to develop a qb.  I definitely would be more on board with Allen if we had McVay or Andy Reid.  McVay traded for Sammy his first year.  We drafted a bunch of late round slot wrs.  

 

 

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Just now, hondo in seattle said:

 

The quality of their D is irrelevant in this conversation except as it pertains to wins.

 

Statistically speaking, Allen was not a great college QB.  Partly because he started out in JUCO and came to Wyoming with raw skills and partly because his supporting offensive cast wasn't very good.  When given lemons, Allen made lemonade.  It's all you can really ask.  Some say he was a great college QB - despite the poor stats - because he elevated a bad offense.


Would the other top QBs have been more successful running that Wyoming offense with that scheme and those players against that schedule?  We can speculate but we don't know.

 

Some very smart folks like Allen.  Some don't.  If football scouts and former NFL QBs don't have a consensus opinion on Allen, I won't pretend that I know.  I have a lot of hope but few expectations.  

 

 

 

 

 

Funny should say that.  On another episode of Moranalytics, Pat interviews Adam Shefter after the draft.  Shefter was very high on Allen and said that a lot of well-respected people in the NFL that he knows love the guy.  Same with Kiper.  We just won’t know

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1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

The quality of their D is irrelevant in this conversation except as it pertains to wins.

 

Statistically speaking, Allen was not a great college QB.  Partly because he started out in JUCO and came to Wyoming with raw skills and partly because his supporting offensive cast wasn't very good.  When given lemons, Allen made lemonade.  It's all you can really ask.  Some say he was a great college QB - despite the poor stats - because he elevated a bad offense.


Would the other top QBs have been more successful running that Wyoming offense with that scheme and those players against that schedule?  We can speculate but we don't know.

 

Some very smart folks like Allen.  Some don't.  If football scouts and former NFL QBs don't have a consensus opinion on Allen, I won't pretend that I know.  I have a lot of hope but few expectations.  

 

 

 

 

That’s fair as well.  But he wasn’t really that good in Juco either.  A guy I like Mayock liked Allen. He also liked Gabbert over Newton and think there are some similarities in Allen and Blaine (looked the part, limited college production, decided earlier in the process they were top 10 picks).  

 

I hate are being negative about a young guy.  But it just strikes me as I’m smarter than history type pick.  

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2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Fair points. Difference is Goff almost threw for 5,000 yards and 43 tds his last year in college.

 

and I guess more of an issue is I don’t trust Daboll or anyone on our staff to develop a qb.  I definitely would be more on board with Allen if we had McVay or Andy Reid.  McVay traded for Sammy his first year.  We drafted a bunch of late round slot wrs.  

 

 

 

Yeah very true.  I have concerns about David Culley who seems to have no track record of developing QB’s and hasn’t been a QB coach for years.   But I really get the impression that Allen is Daboll’s pet project and that he likely lobbied for him in the draft.  That’s definitey a lot of question marks with Daboll.  He’s had limited success in his other stunts as OC, yet he’s highly regarded in NFL circles.  

 

I think that that the Bills upgrade position players next season.  We should see several WR’s and RB’s both in FA and the draft

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1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Yeah very true.  I have concerns about David Culley who seems to have no track record of developing QB’s and hasn’t been a QB coach for years.   But I really get the impression that Allen is Daboll’s pet project and that he likely lobbied for him in the draft.  That’s definitey a lot of question marks with Daboll.  He’s had limited success in his other stunts as OC, yet he’s highly regarded in NFL circles.  

 

I think that that the Bills upgrade position players next season.  We should see several WR’s and RB’s both in FA and the draft

Good post.  Honestly, I hate the BS recycling of nfl coaches.  The same guys just keep getting jobs because they are friends with the right people.  

 

Obviously its it’s not all his fault but Daboll’s nfl OC resume is terrible.  McDermott’s first OC was terrible.  There’s a chance we have a defensive coach who doesn’t understand offense. 

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34 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Wyoming has the 9th ranked defense in all of college football.  They gave up 17.5 points/ game (UCLA was 117th and gave up 36.5 points/ game). I’m going on a limb here but it’s easier to win games with a top 10 defense than a bottom 10 defense.

 

myself, I’m not a fan of making excuses for players picked that high.  Allen wasn’t a great college qb.  It seemed very risky to me to take him as the highest drafted qb in franchise history.  He has a lot to prove.  I want him to be great.  But this type of prospect is in every draft and they rarely translate.

i think this has come up before, but wyoming didn't have 9th ranked defense in all of football.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/2018/team/22

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-yards-per-game

 

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..often wondered about this......as a Buffalo native, maybe he still has an axe to grind with OBD for not interviewing him after the Bears canned him in April 2010.....

 

GM Scouting: Bears Director of College Scouting, Greg Gabriel

By Brian Galliford Dec 21, 2009, 12:58pm EST
 

The biggest, most important necessity for Buffalo Bills fans right now is catharsis. At the time of this posting, the 2009 version of the Bills are 5-9 and coming off of their most recent embarrassing home loss. The 2000-2009 Buffalo Bills? Yeah, they're 65-93 in the decade, likely to add two more losses to that pile, and about to finish the entire decade without a single playoff appearance.

 

I tried to hold off on the "moving on to the next decade" posts for as long as possible. The season is still being played, after all. But I doubt you'll hold it against me that I'm about to start off our GM search articles here at Buffalo Rumblings. We all want to see things change, and change is coming. Hell, the vast majority of Bills fans would take change from Russ Brandon all the way down to the team's uniforms without a second's hesitation right now.

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2009/12/21/1210881/gm-scouting-bears-director-of

 

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Why are people talking about Wyoming's defense?  He played against the other Mountain West teams where defense is...well let's just say defense isn't a "strength". 

 

That said, I can see the multiple opinions. He has a cannon, was a JUCO transfer, without weapons especially in his senior year. Let's hope by the time he starts, he has the weapons, protection, coaching and innate skills that elevate him into a top tier QB....And the D and special teams rule and the Bills win a Superbowl!

 

So many pieces to the puzzle...

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3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Fair points. Difference is Goff almost threw for 5,000 yards and 43 tds his last year in college.

 

and I guess more of an issue is I don’t trust Daboll or anyone on our staff to develop a qb.  I definitely would be more on board with Allen if we had McVay or Andy Reid.  McVay traded for Sammy his first year.  We drafted a bunch of late round slot wrs.  

 

 

Hasnt this been covered already?  WHO was Josh Allen throwing to?  Someone has to actually catch the ball?

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57 minutes ago, gobillsatthebeach said:

Why are people talking about Wyoming's defense?  He played against the other Mountain West teams where defense is...well let's just say defense isn't a "strength". 

 

That said, I can see the multiple opinions. He has a cannon, was a JUCO transfer, without weapons especially in his senior year. Let's hope by the time he starts, he has the weapons, protection, coaching and innate skills that elevate him into a top tier QB....And the D and special teams rule and the Bills win a Superbowl!

 

So many pieces to the puzzle...

People really don’t get how a good defense can help a qb out?  All I hear is how terrible Wyoming was.  Allen had to score 18 points/ game to win (Rosen had to score 37).  Less pressure to score makes life easier for a qb, no?  

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"Instincts" is a work that gets thrown  around a lot when discussing draft prospects.  I think there could be some confusion with it in view of its broad usage.  When I think of instincts, I think of something that is more or less genetic.  You either have it or you don't and there is nothing you can do to change it.  I think there is probably some of that among NFL players.  Among QBs instinctiveness seems to be connected in some way to anticipation and to the ability to sense pressure.  Aaron Rodgers has it.  EJ Manuel does not.  Tyrod Taylor may have some, but he could stand to have a lot more.    There are things that some people associate with instinct that might not be, however.  I've seen the criticism that Tremaine Edmunds is not instinctive, versus Roquon Smith (who is instinctive).  I have to wonder, however, if some of the perceived deficiency in Tremaine's instinctiveness might be connected to his youth.  Roquon is a full year older and played in a program (Georgia) that is part of the SEC (which is kind of like a farm league for the NFL).  I figure Tremaine is going to bite on a few misdirection plays this year and get faked out occasionally, but I think next year, when he is the age that Roquon Smith is now, he's going to be a pro bowler.

 

As for QBs in the draft, it could be five years before there is a QB in the draft who comes with little or no risk. Buffalo could go through McBeane and an additional GM/coach regime before they have a chance to grab one.  Whether Allen is the right one this year or not we'll have to wait and see, but Baker Mayfield was gone, and I'm glad Beane chose to gamble.

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I don't think we're looking at Wyoming's record, rather than the quality of defense that Allen faced at the D1 level. If he shredded lousy D's, then that changes how we look at his completion percentage, accuracy, td/int ratio, etc.. as it relates to the pressures and coverage he faced.

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16 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

"Instincts" is a work that gets thrown  around a lot when discussing draft prospects.  I think there could be some confusion with it in view of its broad usage.  When I think of instincts, I think of something that is more or less genetic.  You either have it or you don't and there is nothing you can do to change it.  I think there is probably some of that among NFL players.  Among QBs instinctiveness seems to be connected in some way to anticipation and to the ability to sense pressure.  Aaron Rodgers has it.  EJ Manuel does not.  Tyrod Taylor may have some, but he could stand to have a lot more.    There are things that some people associate with instinct that might not be, however.  I've seen the criticism that Tremaine Edmunds is not instinctive, versus Roquon Smith (who is instinctive).  I have to wonder, however, if some of the perceived deficiency in Tremaine's instinctiveness might be connected to his youth.  Roquon is a full year older and played in a program (Georgia) that is part of the SEC (which is kind of like a farm league for the NFL).  I figure Tremaine is going to bite on a few misdirection plays this year and get faked out occasionally, but I think next year, when he is the age that Roquon Smith is now, he's going to be a pro bowler.

 

As for QBs in the draft, it could be five years before there is a QB in the draft who comes with little or no risk. Buffalo could go through McBeane and an additional GM/coach regime before they have a chance to grab one.  Whether Allen is the right one this year or not we'll have to wait and see, but Baker Mayfield was gone, and I'm glad Beane chose to gamble.

I think it’s way too simple to say Rodgers had instincts.  He sat behind a HOF qb for 3 years.  If he played and struggled as a rookie, like most qbs, ripple would have given up on him after a season like they do with most qbs.

 

facr is, most fans are patient enough to truly go through the process of developing a qb.  Of course with how much the rules help qbs now, it makes the transition easier than ever.

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Wyoming had 5 first or second team choices for the All MWC offense in 2016.  Josh Allen  was the only one of them who returned for 2017.  They went from 207 to 109 ypg rushing and 4.6 to 3.2 ypc.   I think his 2017 targets caught the ball well enough but offered little in terms of YAC.  There was little going on for the Wyoming offfense that would boost Allen's production and probably left him facing an inordinate amount of 3rd and long situations.

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Gabriels' view of Allen is nothing unusual or unique;  I agree with what he is saying, as the OP reports it.  Allen has major footwork issues, accuracy issues, and his collegiate completion % is bad.  He is a huge risk and the fate of McBeane may well be tied to how well he does. 

 

It is also not unusual to suggest all the big name QBs from this year's draft may not be successful in the NFL.

 

Every draft/scouting expert leading up to the draft pretty much indicated that each QB is flawed, just in different ways.

 

The question is to what degree and if the flaws can be overcome to be a productive franchise QB.

 

 

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6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

With al life respect, it’s because you’re a Bills fan and want him to be the guy.  There are guys like Gabbert, Locker, etc who get drafted high and people just ignore their college production or make excuses for their play.  

 

Look, I hope you and the Bills are right.  And as much as people want to blame everyone else for Allen’s problems, he also played with a top 10 defense.  While dominating in college is no guarantee for nfl success, being mediocre in the Mountain West is worrisome. No matter who you play with. Top 10 pick qbs should elevate their teams and players around them.

 

Umm, ok.

 

Wyoming record in the four years pre-Allen:  4-8, 5-7, 4-8, 2-10

 

Wyoming record in two seasons with Allen:  8-6, 8-5

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3 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Umm, ok.

 

Wyoming record in the four years pre-Allen:  4-8, 5-7, 4-8, 2-10

 

Wyoming record in two seasons with Allen:  8-6, 8-5

 

8-3 his second season as starter (they lost two games he didnt start)

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16 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Gabriels' view of Allen is nothing unusual or unique;  I agree with what he is saying, as the OP reports it.  Allen has major footwork issues, accuracy issues, and his collegiate completion % is bad.  He is a huge risk and the fate of McBeane may well be tied to how well he does. 

 

It is also not unusual to suggest all the big name QBs from this year's draft may not be successful in the NFL.

 

Every draft/scouting expert leading up to the draft pretty much indicated that each QB is flawed, just in different ways.

 

The question is to what degree and if the flaws can be overcome to be a productive franchise QB.

 

 

The real question is will Gabrielle step up if he is wrong on these players?  NO HE WILL NOT

 

Just like a lot of poster's here who air on the side of negativity consistantly......its easy to do that because you wont be wrong often.....it doesnt make you smarter.

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5 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

The real question is will Gabrielle step up if he is wrong on these players?  NO HE WILL NOT

 

Just like a lot of poster's here who air on the side of negativity consistantly......its easy to do that because you wont be wrong often.....it doesnt make you smarter.

 

No he will not.  He was dead wrong about Peterman being a better option than Tyrod.  After the 5 INTs and he pretended like he never said anything

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1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

No he will not.  He was dead wrong about Peterman being a better option than Tyrod.  After the 5 INTs and he pretended like he never said anything

Yeah that is very much my point....

 

its easy to sit on the side lines and make predictions that you NEVER have to own up to.

 

The hard part is staking your reputation on it......if Josh Allen fails......McD and Beane may or may not get a second chance...this is how they feed their families.  I am quite sure that they did not take the situation lightly.

 

Meanwhile......Gabriel can just move onto the next click bait

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