77% were wrong believing our HC wouldn't be fooled by the mirage of preseason, but the Allen Era begins week 2!

[transplantbillsfan]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Benjamin Allbright reported that his inside source said Peterman is leading the competition and Allen is "distantly in 3rd." If that's true, combined with what McDermott said about picking a QB early, I don't think he'll make up the ground against the 2 veterans. That's no slight against Allen. I think every rookie QB should sit for at least 4 games to get a feel for what the game looks like up close. I'm sure they will give Allen a legitimate chance to win the starting role, I just don't think he'll win it. I would be excited if he does though. But I see this year as a throwaway for the offense so I would rather see Peterman or McCarron taking the hits.

 

Hap, I assume you're referring to this tweet by Allbright?

Is that it?

 

I don't think that one says anything at all about Allen, especially him being distantly in 3rd.

 

I looked through that conversation and didn't see any of it brought up, either.

 

[major]

On 5/22/2018 at 7:23 AM, ddaryl said:

Can't vote there are only 3 options and i know there is a 4th arm coming to camp

Kyle Orton 

3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Hap, I assume you're referring to this tweet by Allbright?

Is that it?

 

I don't think that one says anything at all about Allen, especially him being distantly in 3rd.

 

I looked through that conversation and didn't see any of it brought up, either.

 

If Peterman gets the start, I’m going for six int’s in game one. That dude has ptsd from the Chargers. When he came in against Jacksonville, I told someone in the room, here comes an int

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Is that it?

 

I don't think that one says anything at all about Allen, especially him being distantly in 3rd.

 

I looked through that conversation and didn't see any of it brought up, either.

 

Yep that's it, and here's the one about Allen:

 

 

So if his source is right that's what the QB depth chart looks like. And I'm pretty sure he has a source, he was all in on Josh Allen to the Bills for months prior to the draft.

[Augie]

Maybe Joe Montana comes back to throw to Jerry Rice? 

[JohnC]

40 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Benjamin Allbright reported that his inside source said Peterman is leading the competition and Allen is "distantly in 3rd." If that's true, combined with what McDermott said about picking a QB early, I don't think he'll make up the ground against the 2 veterans. That's no slight against Allen. I think every rookie QB should sit for at least 4 games to get a feel for what the game looks like up close. I'm sure they will give Allen a legitimate chance to win the starting role, I just don't think he'll win it. I would be excited if he does though. But I see this year as a throwaway for the offense so I would rather see Peterman or McCarron taking the hits.

The first half of the season schedule is brutal. I don't believe that McDermott wants to expose Allen so quickly to the better teams in the league. I do see Allen getting playing time this year but it will probably be in the second half to the last third part of the season. Even if Peterman and McCarron are only vying as a care taker starting qb for Allen it will be interesting to see how each of those qbs play. 

[major]

5 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The first half of the season schedule is brutal. I don't believe that McDermott wants to expose Allen so quickly to the better teams in the league. I do see Allen getting playing time this year but it will probably be in the second half to the last third part of the season. Even if Peterman and McCarron are only vying as a care taker starting qb for Allen it will be interesting to see how each of those qbs play. 

None of these qb’s will do well. They need receivers and an O-line

[transplantbillsfan]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yep that's it, and here's the one about Allen:

 

 

So if his source is right that's what the QB depth chart looks like. And I'm pretty sure he has a source, he was all in on Josh Allen to the Bills for months prior to the draft.

 

Ah I see it. I really don't know who his source is or how close he is to McDermott or Dabol, but I think much will be revealed in that first week of Training Camp.

 

I said I think Allen has somewhere around a 50% chance of becoming the week 1 starter, and I still think that's about right. 

 

As much as Colorado and a couple others are painting me as a "he WILL be the starter!!!" guy, the reality is I think he's got about a 50/50 shot to win it. 

 

His sheer physical talent, leadership that's already showing, intelligence, and glowing praise from vets are some of the reasons for that combined with the fact that the 2 guys he's up against are probably the "frontrunner" who's had 5 NFL starts and was a backup for 4 years otherwise to a mediocre Franchise QB and a guy with a serious physical detriment for an NFL QB (at least as far as last year) who's shocked everyone this spring with how good he's been--and that shock largely stems from how appallingly bad he was last year.

 

But I'd say Peterman/McCarron are about as likely to be the starter as Allen.

 

Just my opinion.

[JohnC]

7 minutes ago, major said:

None of these qb’s will do well. They need receivers and an O-line

 What do you expect these qbs to do with the lineup each has to work with? Refuse to go in and allow someone else to take a pummeling? You just do your best with what you have to work with and appreciate the opportunity to play and show what you got to offer. Very often lineups are not as good as expected and contrarily lineups are often not as bad as expected. 

[keepthefaith]

BIG jump from college to the NFL.  So much for a rookie to learn.  It's really not fair IMO to expect Allen to win the job or to judge him too much over the next 3-4 months.  AJ should have a leg up on the other two as he's been at this longer and is most likely IMO to prevail over a very short 6 week training camp and pre-season. 

[transplantbillsfan]

13 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:

BIG jump from college to the NFL.  So much for a rookie to learn.  It's really not fair IMO to expect Allen to win the job or to judge him too much over the next 3-4 months.  AJ should have a leg up on the other two as he's been at this longer and is most likely IMO to prevail over a very short 6 week training camp and pre-season. 

 

And yet, in the modern era of quarterbacking over the last 10 years, 76.5% of the QBs drafted in the top 10 started week #1 and 56% of all QBs drafted in the 1st round drafted have started week #1, game #1 of their rookie year for the team that drafted him.

 

96.3% of all QBs drafted in the 1st round in the last 10 years started at some point during their rookie year.

 

General odds actually seem to favor Allen starting week 1, especially given a new offensive system and no incumbent.

[Zerovoltz]

My worthless 2 cents.  I think it will be Peterman.  ....it could be McCaron, but the important thing here is that the question being asked should be Allen or someone else.  The someone else part doens't really matter what their name is or who they are.  Some of you posting here have mentioned that Allen was drafted, knowing that there will need to be some time to develop.  that has not changed.  he's been mostly running with the 3's.  He's also lived up to his scouting report.  Big arm, athletic.  smart.  looks like the god of QB's in a no pressure practice type situation (like he always has)  I'd venture to say that at some point in the season he will start, but not game one...here is why:

 

1.  The Bills opening 8 games are so are brutal.  Let one of your low dollar, not in the future plans, scrub QB's take those hits and losses.  No need to expose Allen to the brutal speed and harshness of the NFL over these first 8 games.

 

2.  The Bills offensive roster isn't very good.  I'm not a Bills fan as you all know....just objectively looking at your roster on the offensive side of the ball...it's frankly pretty bad.  Again, let the other QB's come in and have to work with this less than optimal talent level to start with.  Perhaps after 8 games, the talent level won't be much better but at least there will have been some time for the O-line to develop some cohesiveness and maybe some guys emerge here and there.  

 

3.  There should be no illusions that this is a playoff team, and certainly not a contender at this point.  Let the other QB's take the wrath of the fans and media while Allen remains the golden boy in waiting, the great hope of the future, unstained by what will probalby be a pretty miserable opening to the season.  Bring him in when the fans and media no longer are clinging to any hope that this team is has any realistic post season asperiations.....Then the focus can be on watching Allen and seeing how he does game to game..hopefully finding tangible evidence of improvment until the end of the season....giving you something to be hopeful about in 2019 when they can also spend to improve his weaponry, his o line...another draft...etc.  

 

You all like to point at "the process".  Starting week 1 would be kind of anti process.  sacrifice Peterman and McCaron so that Allen can have the best shot at sustained success (if he is ever to have it) 

 

Week 1.  Someone not named Josh Allen.

 

 

Edited June 29, 2018 by Zerovotlz

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

looks like the god of QB's in a no pressure practice type situation (like he always has)  

 

He has? I haven't seen these reports of how great a practicer Allen was in college. I see some people are still going with the narrative that OTAs and minicamp are completely meaningless. I can understand why a Mahomes supporter would want that to be true, but here in reality you can absolutely judge a QB in OTAs. Of course it isn't the end all be all, not even close, but a QB who can throw accurately within the design of a play in practice can do the same in a real game. On the other hand a QB who continually turns the ball over in practices, like a certain other QB, will likely turn the ball over a lot in real games.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He has? I haven't seen these reports of how great a practicer Allen was in college. I see some people are still going with the narrative that OTAs and minicamp are completely meaningless. I can understand why a Mahomes supporter would want that to be true, but here in reality you can absolutely judge a QB in OTAs. Of course it isn't the end all be all, not even close, but a QB who can throw accurately within the design of a play in practice can do the same in a real game. On the other hand a QB who continually turns the ball over in practices, like a certain other QB, will likely turn the ball over a lot in real games.

 

Not sure what you’re talking about here, Days.  Is this what you’re talking about?  I would rephrase it slightly, that a QB who can throw accurately and protect the ball during OTAs may or may not be able to do the same in a real game, but a QB who can’t protect the ball during OTAs has a steep curve ahead of him to do better in real games.

 

 

 

 

[Zerovoltz]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Not sure what you’re talking about here, Days.  Is this what you’re talking about?  I would rephrase it slightly, that a QB who can throw accurately and protect the ball during OTAs may or may not be able to do the same in a real game, but a QB who can’t protect the ball during OTAs has a steep curve ahead of him to do better in real games.

 

 

 

 

 

1.  This really isn't related to my thoughts on Josh Allen but....

2.  We expect Mahomes to have some days like this.  He's running with the 1's.  We are trying out several players at the C position with the 1's. 

3.  Mahomes is getting praise from all over the place locally, nationaly, other players, etc...having sat pretty much a year...and this being his first season playing...I am expecting there will be some times where we cringe...but at this point, completely expecting a dynamic, franchise QB over the coming 15 years...nothing at this point to say that isn't the expected trajectory.

 

I stand by my thoughts on Allen.  He's an incredibly intriquing prospect because of his physical and mental makeup.  On an actual football field, he has had some well documented issues with accuracy.  I am willing to entertain the idea that Allens completion PCT can actually be improved by almost 10 pct even though that would be unprecedented. Allen could be coached up to a QB who could exceed the 60% completion pct threshold in the NFL someday but I'm only willing to think it possible if he gets a TON of reps, in practice, with NFL caliber players on the field with him, and good coaching.  The only argument I will buy that he had the low completion pct in college is due to poor coaching, poor talent around him and that he spent a ton of his on field time playing sandlot football, totally off script.  

 

Josh Allen is the very RARE case where if ever a guy could truly see tangible benefits by sitting and learning then he is it.  For the sake of your future, for the sake of seeing this whole thing through the right way and to end up with a QB that can be a franchise 15 year guy....he needs to be solidly planted on the bench for the whole year....and at bare minimum, the first 8 games.

[transplantbillsfan]

16 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

My worthless 2 cents.  I think it will be Peterman.  ....it could be McCaron, but the important thing here is that the question being asked should be Allen or someone else.  The someone else part doens't really matter what their name is or who they are.  Some of you posting here have mentioned that Allen was drafted, knowing that there will need to be some time to develop.  that has not changed.  he's been mostly running with the 3's.  He's also lived up to his scouting report.  Big arm, athletic.  smart.  looks like the god of QB's in a no pressure practice type situation (like he always has)  I'd venture to say that at some point in the season he will start, but not game one...here is why:

 

1.  The Bills opening 8 games are so are brutal.  Let one of your low dollar, not in the future plans, scrub QB's take those hits and losses.  No need to expose Allen to the brutal speed and harshness of the NFL over these first 8 games.

 

2.  The Bills offensive roster isn't very good.  I'm not a Bills fan as you all know....just objectively looking at your roster on the offensive side of the ball...it's frankly pretty bad.  Again, let the other QB's come in and have to work with this less than optimal talent level to start with.  Perhaps after 8 games, the talent level won't be much better but at least there will have been some time for the O-line to develop some cohesiveness and maybe some guys emerge here and there.  

 

3.  There should be no illusions that this is a playoff team, and certainly not a contender at this point.  Let the other QB's take the wrath of the fans and media while Allen remains the golden boy in waiting, the great hope of the future, unstained by what will probalby be a pretty miserable opening to the season.  Bring him in when the fans and media no longer are clinging to any hope that this team is has any realistic post season asperiations.....Then the focus can be on watching Allen and seeing how he does game to game..hopefully finding tangible evidence of improvment until the end of the season....giving you something to be hopeful about in 2019 when they can also spend to improve his weaponry, his o line...another draft...etc.  

 

You all like to point at "the process".  Starting week 1 would be kind of anti process.  sacrifice Peterman and McCaron so that Allen can have the best shot at sustained success (if he is ever to have it) 

 

Week 1.  Someone not named Josh Allen.

 

 

 

1- Is an NFL game ever not brutal? You're projecting too much about how good the teams are in our first 8 games. Regardless of what a coach should or should not do, I highly doubt that's what McDermott is doing. The NFL changes so consistently year to year that I'd bet you money that at least two of those teams you (and so many others who--like every year--are predicting how difficult our schedule is based on the teams we play) allude to who you think will be so great in the first 8 games will end the season with losing records. At least 2. Probably more. I don't think projecting like this is something coaches do or is even plausible--except for when the Bills play the Patriots

 

2- More projecting. Similarly to #1, Beane's job as GM is to evaluate players and bring in the best known good to great players for value but, more importantly, to rely on scouting--both pro and college--to go out and find those diamonds in the rough. We have and unknown offensive roster, not necessarily a "not very good one." Maybe it's downright awful, but the good thing is that McDermott has had OTAs and Minicamp and will have Training Camp and Preseason to evaluate it. If he thinks they're much worse than they were last year, I'm sure that'll factor into his decision. I, personally, thing the offensive roster is better than you think. But I've really bought into what Beane has been doing with the roster on both the pro and college side.

 

3- I think this is a playoff team, just like I thought we'd make the playoffs last year and thought it before the season started:

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/195955-why-are-you-so-sure-we-arent-a-playoff-team/

We were a playoff team. This year, I think we'll be better. I don't even know who our QB is, yet, but I think we'll finally get to double digit wins and won't rely on another team in a miracle win to make the playoffs. I think that not simply because I am a Bills fan. I think that because it's year 2 under a HC who already coached an underrated team into the playoffs once and he's going into year 2 with a seriously upgraded defensive roster (and that's his bread and butter), he brought in an OC who's advertised as very creative who he seems to know well personally and trust, our RBs are better, our WRs are already better with simply a healthy Benjamin, our OL has an opportunity with 2 aging vets who left to inject some youth in the interior OL, and we have lots of potential at the QB position... with whoever that might be. Plus, again, this is year 2 under a regime that broke a 17 year playoff drought. There's buy-in already built in.

 

 

Allen might not start week 1. If he doesn't, it's going to be because Peterman or McCarron were clearly well ahead of him. I doubt it's for any of the 3 reasons you provide.

Edited June 30, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[Zerovoltz]

10 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

1- Is an NFL game ever not brutal? You're projecting too much about how good the teams are in our first 8 games. Regardless of what a coach should or should not do, I highly doubt that's what McDermott is doing. The NFL changes so consistently year to year that I'd bet you money that at least two of those teams you (and so many others who--like every year--are predicting how difficult our schedule is based on the teams we play) allude to who you think will be so great in the first 8 games will end the season with losing records. At least 2. Probably more. I don't think projecting like this is something coaches do or is even plausible--except for when the Bills play the Patriots

 

2- More projecting. Similarly to #1, Beane's job as GM is to evaluate players and bring in the best known good to great players for value but, more importantly, to rely on scouting--both pro and college--to go out and find those diamonds in the rough. We have and unknown offensive roster, not necessarily a "not very good one." Maybe it's downright awful, but the good thing is that McDermott has had OTAs and Minicamp and will have Training Camp and Preseason to evaluate it. If he thinks they're much worse than they were last year, I'm sure that'll factor into his decision. I, personally, thing the offensive roster is better than you think. But I've really bought into what Beane has been doing with the roster on both the pro and college side.

 

3- I think this is a playoff team, just like I thought we'd make the playoffs last year and thought it before the season started:

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/195955-why-are-you-so-sure-we-arent-a-playoff-team/

We were a playoff team. This year, I think we'll be better. I don't even know who our QB is, yet, but I think we'll finally get to double digit wins and won't rely on another team in a miracle win to make the playoffs. I think that not simply because I am a Bills fan. I think that because it's year 2 under a HC who already coached an underrated team into the playoffs once and he's going into year 2 with a seriously upgraded defensive roster (and that's his bread and butter), he brought in an OC who's advertised as very creative who he seems to know well personally and trust, our RBs are better, our WRs are already better with simply a healthy Benjamin, our OL has an opportunity with 2 aging vets who left to inject some youth in the interior OL, and we have lots of potential at the QB position... with whoever that might be. Plus, again, this is year 2 under a regime that broke a 17 year playoff drought. There's buy-in already built in.

 

 

Allen might not start week 1. If he doesn't, it's going to be because Peterman or McCarron were clearly well ahead of him. I doubt it's for any of the 3 reasons you provide.

 

1. - even if your first 8 games happen to be against what ultimately turn out to be the easiest 8 games played in the NFL all year....he should still be on the bench.

2.  I certainly could be wrong about my evaluation of the Bills offensive talent.  I'm not a scout etc.  I wouldn't have a different opinion in regards to Allen if you had for example, the Patriots offensive roster.  I THINK that Allen isn't ready to carry what appears to be an offensive side lacking the kind of talent to carry a QB.  

3.  McDermott did quite an impressive job getting the Bills to the post season.  I certainly wouldn't have counted the Bills as a playoff team heading into last season.

 

You and many others have stated that if Allen can show he is heads and shoulders above the other 2 running the offense in camp/pre-season, he should start.  I AGREE with that....but since this is pre camp, and no preseason games to watch yet, we are speculating here....and so, I am speculating that his pre draft scouting report isn't wrong, that he is who everyone says he is...(a physical talent, a smart kid, who was inaccurate in actual games, on a bad team in a bad conference)  I think this will manifest itself in camp and especially on the field in preseason.  I frankly can't wait to see how it plays out.  I think what will happen is that Allen will look like a guy who needs some work and time on the bench when we get to live action, but I'm certainly looking forward to seeing what he looks like in a game setting and having my views challenged.  

 

Also...I'm not ANTI Bills or Anti Allen.  I've said on this board many times that I really want this all to work out for you folks.  This board and fan base are GREAT to interact with...it's why I keep showing up here...great group.  Unless you are playing the Chiefs, I will be rooting for the Bills.  (and hey, I got my picture taken with Poncho Billa at the draft even)  .....Anyhow....I am calling it like I see it....like I said...my worthless 2 cents.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

1.  This really isn't related to my thoughts on Josh Allen but....

2.  We expect Mahomes to have some days like this.  He's running with the 1's.  We are trying out several players at the C position with the 1's. 

3.  Mahomes is getting praise from all over the place locally, nationaly, other players, etc...having sat pretty much a year...and this being his first season playing...I am expecting there will be some times where we cringe...but at this point, completely expecting a dynamic, franchise QB over the coming 15 years...nothing at this point to say that isn't the expected trajectory.

 

I stand by my thoughts on Allen.  He's an incredibly intriquing prospect because of his physical and mental makeup.  On an actual football field, he has had some well documented issues with accuracy.  I am willing to entertain the idea that Allens completion PCT can actually be improved by almost 10 pct even though that would be unprecedented. Allen could be coached up to a QB who could exceed the 60% completion pct threshold in the NFL someday but I'm only willing to think it possible if he gets a TON of reps, in practice, with NFL caliber players on the field with him, and good coaching.  The only argument I will buy that he had the low completion pct in college is due to poor coaching, poor talent around him and that he spent a ton of his on field time playing sandlot football, totally off script.  

 

Josh Allen is the very RARE case where if ever a guy could truly see tangible benefits by sitting and learning then he is it.  For the sake of your future, for the sake of seeing this whole thing through the right way and to end up with a QB that can be a franchise 15 year guy....he needs to be solidly planted on the bench for the whole year....and at bare minimum, the first 8 games.

 

2- In case you didn't know, the Bills are trying out players at Center this offseason, too. But none of the Bills QBs, including Allen, have reportedly struggled with snaps the way Mahomes reportedly has.

 

3- Praise? National praise means absolute squat. As for local, team and coaches praise, Allen is getting plenty of that, too. And there haven't been any disastrous practices thus far.

 

 

I'm missing something.

 

You said you aren't a Bills fan.

 

Are you a Chiefs fan?

 

Or jeffismagic reincarnated as a more thoughtful (or at least garrulous) poster?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

1.  This really isn't related to my thoughts on Josh Allen but....

2.  We expect Mahomes to have some days like this.  He's running with the 1's.  We are trying out several players at the C position with the 1's. 

3.  Mahomes is getting praise from all over the place locally, nationaly, other players, etc...having sat pretty much a year...and this being his first season playing...I am expecting there will be some times where we cringe...but at this point, completely expecting a dynamic, franchise QB over the coming 15 years...nothing at this point to say that isn't the expected trajectory.

 

I got to give you credit for big ones, Zerovotlz.  But I do see irony in your total praise-fest for Mahomes vs. your commentary on Allen.  If you don't, well, you do ack homer bias.

I think a more balanced take on Mahomes is that he was seen, pre draft, in a similar vein to Allen: a very high-ceiling guy with some bad habits and questionmarks to his technique, as well as the normal spread-offense questionmark, another guy who would fit into that RARE case you mention to see tangible benefits by sitting and learning.   From Mahomes draft analysis by Zierlein:

Grade: 5.87   Bottom Line:
Mahomes is a big, confident quarterback who brings a variety of physical tools to the party, but he's developed some bad habits and doesn't have a very repeatable process as a passer. Mahomes' ability to improvise and extend plays can lead to big plays for his offense, but he will have to prove he can operate with better anticipation and be willing to take what the defense gives him in order to win from the pocket. Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he's a high ceiling, low floor prospect.

Change the wording around a little bit, and it sounds a lot like Zierlein's take on Allen, whom he graded 5.90 and also termed a high ceiling, low floor prospect, mentioning the need to improve anticipation and be willing to take what the defense gives him.  Zierlein ain't infallible, but his takes on QB have a way of proving W(Zierlein)SIWYG when they play.

 

Of course Mahomes is running with the ones, KC burnt their bridges when "Mr Smith goes to Washington".  I'm just pointing out that looking for the national, local, and other player praise when a guy is failing to protect the ball in OTAs may not point to the clearest objective judgement.

 

I like Mahomes.  I like KC as long as they're not playing Buffalo.  I believe KC had to move on from Smith and what I (and as I recall you) see as his limitations. 

 

14 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

I stand by my thoughts on Allen.  He's an incredibly intriquing prospect because of his physical and mental makeup.  On an actual football field, he has had some well documented issues with accuracy.  I am willing to entertain the idea that Allens completion PCT can actually be improved by almost 10 pct even though that would be unprecedented. Allen could be coached up to a QB who could exceed the 60% completion pct threshold in the NFL someday but I'm only willing to think it possible if he gets a TON of reps, in practice, with NFL caliber players on the field with him, and good coaching.  The only argument I will buy that he had the low completion pct in college is due to poor coaching, poor talent around him and that he spent a ton of his on field time playing sandlot football, totally off script.  

 

Josh Allen is the very RARE case where if ever a guy could truly see tangible benefits by sitting and learning then he is it.  For the sake of your future, for the sake of seeing this whole thing through the right way and to end up with a QB that can be a franchise 15 year guy....he needs to be solidly planted on the bench for the whole year....and at bare minimum, the first 8 games.

 

I don't disagree that Allen would benefit from time to sit and learn, but then, I think the same of most rookie QB - especially QB who have played in a spread offense.  It's not clear to me, given the total QB situation for the Bills, that the Bills coaches agree with us.  We'll get a clearer picture in preseason.

 

In the meantime, just to point out that there appears to be a significant double-standard when rhapsodizing about Mahomes' success vs coming here to advise us about Allen's limitations.  I hope Mahomes succeeds, but the 10,000 foot view is he's got a long way to go.

[Billsfanatixs]

So Peterman set or tied the interception record for a half game. I get why people are stuck on that. If you watch what happened you would see that one should have been caught by receiver, one was a deflection and Mills was called out by a pro-bowler for litterally not blocking for him. 

I will get behind whoever starts, but so many folk want to just say the guy is garbage because it's the thing to do.

I still wanna see what he can do, not for 2 seasons of failure, but way too early to write off.

 

[BuffBillsForLife]

It's going to be Peterman.  McBeane for some reason love the kid and are committed to tanking 2018 having Allen sit for his first year.  McCarron just isn't a very good QB and probably won't win the job outright, I expect to see some terrible mix of him and Peterman starting during the year.

[transplantbillsfan]

http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/31756

Josh Allen's development key to Bills' postseason hopes

For the Buffalo Bills to contend for the playoffs this season, here are the five players who can help make that happen:

AJ McCarron, QB:

Josh Allen, QB:

LeSean McCoy, RB:

Kelvin Benjamin, WR: 

Jerry Hughes, DE: 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/31756

Josh Allen's development key to Bills' postseason hopes

For the Buffalo Bills to contend for the playoffs this season, here are the five players who can help make that happen:

AJ McCarron, QB:

Josh Allen, QB:

LeSean McCoy, RB:

Kelvin Benjamin, WR: 

Jerry Hughes, DE: 

 

So, Rodak isn't buying the Nate Peterman hype train and thinks McCarron  "seems to have the inside track on the starting job", is that what I'm getting from this?

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So, Rodak isn't buying the Nate Peterman hype train and thinks McCarron  "seems to have the inside track on the starting job", is that what I'm getting from this?

 

Guess so.

 

I think and have thought since we acquired McCarron and drafted Allen it'd be McCarron or Allen starting.

 

The Peterman hype has been odd, but let's see how long it goes into TC.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So, Rodak isn't buying the Nate Peterman hype train and thinks McCarron  "seems to have the inside track on the starting job", is that what I'm getting from this?

 

...so who's buying Rodak?.....

[reddogblitz]

On 6/29/2018 at 7:31 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

More projecting. Similarly to #1, Beane's job as GM is to evaluate players and bring in the best known good to great players for value but, more importantly, to rely on scouting--both pro and college--to go out and find those diamonds in the rough. We have and unknown offensive roster, not necessarily a "not very good one." Maybe it's downright awful, but the good thing is that McDermott has had OTAs and Minicamp and will have Training Camp and Preseason to evaluate it. If he thinks they're much worse than they were last year, I'm sure that'll factor into his decision. I, personally, thing the offensive roster is better than you think. But I've really bought into what Beane has been doing with the roster on both the pro and college side.

 

I'd say it's bordering on a loser mentality. We can't win. We're not good enough. Play the worst guy. We're gonna lose anyway.  Conceding playoffs before TC even starts?

 

thankfully Coach McDermott does not think this way.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

 

I'd say it's bordering on a loser mentality. We can't win. We're not good enough. Play the worst guy. We're gonna lose anyway.  Conceding playoffs before TC even starts?

 

thankfully Coach McDermott does not think this way.

 

Fans are the ones with this "protectionist mentality." 

 

Luckily, that's really not generally how coaches think.

 

The best QB over the Summer will be the guy who starts. 

 

With very few exceptions, that's how it's always been.

[Thurman#1]

 

 

Tough tough question.

 

Let's look at things objectively. Hmmm. What has changed?

 

Answer: Absolutely nothing except the emotional status of the fans. Wow, well, clearly that's a good reason to imagine that the odds on Allen playing have gone up.

[Thurman#1]

On 6/27/2018 at 10:25 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And yet, in the modern era of quarterbacking over the last 10 years, 76.5% of the QBs drafted in the top 10 started week #1 and 56% of all QBs drafted in the 1st round drafted have started week #1, game #1 of their rookie year for the team that drafted him.

 

96.3% of all QBs drafted in the 1st round in the last 10 years started at some point during their rookie year.

 

General odds actually seem to favor Allen starting week 1, especially given a new offensive system and no incumbent.

 

 

How many of those QBs selected in the first round who played the first week were the third QBs selected that year? How many  went outside the top two or three?

 

And how many of them were widely considered before the draft as developmental guys who would need a year or even two to be ready?

 

General odds aren't particularly general.

 

 

 

And then a smart team has to think about this ... should we do what the majority of teams have done in the past?  Is that a good reason to do something, that most teams seem to do it that way? Second, should we flat-out pretend that all first round QBs are alike? Or should we take into account the obviously huge factor that many on the boards want to forget about when in the first round guys went, among many other kinds of individual differences? Third, should we totally ignore what has separated successful and unsuccessful QB development as so many want to do, the way that Transplant is doing in this post?

 

"... over the last ten years 76.5% of the QBs drafted in the top 10 started week one," says Transplant. Desperately spinning the fact that that's only 16 guys total, and that of that 16, 12 of the 16 guys (75%) went in the top three, not just the top ten. In fact, 10 of those 16 guys went in the top two, not just the top three. And that all of those guys, every one of the 16, was either the first QB chosen that year or was the #2 pick after another QB had been chosen #1.

 

Whereas Allen was chosen #7, the third QB chosen. 

 

Allen doesn't compare to the situations of guys like that. In fact, here are all of the other QBs chosen in the top ten but not the top three during Transplant's chosen time-frame ....

 

Tannehill

Jake Locker

Blaine Gabbert

Mark Sanchez.

 

Should we try to model ourselves after how teams developed those four? Tannehill and Sanchez started Game #1. Gabbert played in Game #2 and started #3. Locker played in five games, significant time in the 10th, 13th and 14th game. I say YES!!! These are the guys you want to use as models. Develop our guy the way that Tannehill, Locker, Gabbert and Sanchez were developed. What could go wrong?

 

 

 

 

Just so folks know, I'm reasonably hopeful about Allen. Love his story and his work ethic beyond his obvious tools. But he's very unlikely to be well-served by playing early.

[Thurman#1]

On 6/30/2018 at 10:35 AM, Zerovotlz said:

 

I am willing to entertain the idea that Allens completion PCT can actually be improved by almost 10 pct even though that would be unprecedented. Allen could be coached up to a QB who could exceed the 60% completion pct threshold in the NFL someday but I'm only willing to think it possible if he gets a TON of reps, in practice, with NFL caliber players on the field with him, and good coaching.  The only argument I will buy that he had the low completion pct in college is due to poor coaching, poor talent around him and that he spent a ton of his on field time playing sandlot football, totally off script.  

 

Josh Allen is the very RARE case where if ever a guy could truly see tangible benefits by sitting and learning then he is it.  For the sake of your future, for the sake of seeing this whole thing through the right way and to end up with a QB that can be a franchise 15 year guy....he needs to be solidly planted on the bench for the whole year....and at bare minimum, the first 8 games.

 

 

While I agree with some of this, I just wanted to point out that it is NOT unprecedented to see completion percentage improve by almost 10%.

 

Brett Favre 1987 Southern Mississippi 40.7%

Brett Favre 1988 Southern Mississippi 55.8%

Brett Favre 1989 Southern Mississippi 54.1%

Brett Favre 1990 Southern Mississippi 54.5% (college totals 52.4%)

Brett Favre 1991 Atlanta Falcons 4 attempts the whole year

Brett Favre 1992 Green Bay Packers 64.1% on 471 attempts and a career total of 62%

 

Interesting to note that Favre sat for a year before his major improvement occurred.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

If Allen can’t beat a second year 5th round pick with marginal arm talent and a sliver of live game experience,  historically horrific for the most part, he is a total bust. 

 

Mccarron has so many seasons under his belt I can see him winning the start.

 

but honestly I hope Allen wins it legitimately because of what it means for the franchise. So I am predicting what I hope. 

[Zerovoltz]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

While I agree with some of this, I just wanted to point out that it is NOT unprecedented to see completion percentage improve by almost 10%.

 

Brett Favre 1987 Southern Mississippi 40.7%

Brett Favre 1988 Southern Mississippi 55.8%

Brett Favre 1989 Southern Mississippi 54.1%

Brett Favre 1990 Southern Mississippi 54.5% (college totals 52.4%)

Brett Favre 1991 Atlanta Falcons 4 attempts the whole year

Brett Favre 1992 Green Bay Packers 64.1% on 471 attempts and a career total of 62%

 

Interesting to note that Favre sat for a year before his major improvement occurred.

 

I admit I overlooked the case of Brett Favre....probalby due to the guys I researched to compare being within the past 10 years or so...but since you bring it up, it does fit in with my thought that Allen COULD do this...but in my opinion, he'll need the good reps, good coaching, etc..and lots of it to get him "right".  I can't say i know much about Favre's college career etc but playing at small school, that wasn't in a conference back then, with the big arm and good size....there may be some similarities there.  

 

....it is worth noting that late 80's early 90's era NFL football, it was considered GOOD to have a mid 50's% completion pct....different era, different rules....that's worth noting....Favres college numbers would seem BAD if he played now.

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Tough tough question.

 

Let's look at things objectively. Hmmm. What has changed?

 

Answer: Absolutely nothing except the emotional status of the fans. Wow, well, clearly that's a good reason to imagine that the odds on Allen playing have gone up.

 

You're right. Nothing has changed. Allen's odds are still about the same as they were, though the fact that he probably exceeded performance expectations in OTAs and Minicamp have probably increased his chances a bit.

 

The other thing not changing is you're still stubbornly refusing to concede that his odds are significantly higher than the 5% chance you initially claimed he had.

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

How many of those QBs selected in the first round who played the first week were the third QBs selected that year? How many  went outside the top two or three?

 

And how many of them were widely considered before the draft as developmental guys who would need a year or even two to be ready?

 

General odds aren't particularly general.

 

 

 

And then a smart team has to think about this ... should we do what the majority of teams have done in the past?  Is that a good reason to do something, that most teams seem to do it that way? Second, should we flat-out pretend that all first round QBs are alike? Or should we take into account the obviously huge factor that many on the boards want to forget about when in the first round guys went, among many other kinds of individual differences? Third, should we totally ignore what has separated successful and unsuccessful QB development as so many want to do, the way that Transplant is doing in this post?

 

"... over the last ten years 76.5% of the QBs drafted in the top 10 started week one," says Transplant. Desperately spinning the fact that that's only 16 guys total, and that of that 16, 12 of the 16 guys (75%) went in the top three, not just the top ten. In fact, 10 of those 16 guys went in the top two, not just the top three. And that all of those guys, every one of the 16, was either the first QB chosen that year or was the #2 pick after another QB had been chosen #1.

 

Whereas Allen was chosen #7, the third QB chosen. 

 

Allen doesn't compare to the situations of guys like that. In fact, here are all of the other QBs chosen in the top ten but not the top three during Transplant's chosen time-frame ....

 

Tannehill

Jake Locker

Blaine Gabbert

Mark Sanchez.

 

Should we try to model ourselves after how teams developed those four? Tannehill and Sanchez started Game #1. Gabbert played in Game #2 and started #3. Locker played in five games, significant time in the 10th, 13th and 14th game. I say YES!!! These are the guys you want to use as models. Develop our guy the way that Tannehill, Locker, Gabbert and Sanchez were developed. What could go wrong?

 

 

 

 

Just so folks know, I'm reasonably hopeful about Allen. Love his story and his work ethic beyond his obvious tools. But he's very unlikely to be well-served by playing early.

 

This isn't necessarily an argument of what should happen (although that's kind of built into the discussion), but an argument of what will most likely happen.

 

And relating to that and disregarding whatever tangential argument of what model we should follow, you chose 2 QBs who started week #1.

 

The other guys who didn't start week include 1 QB who had a vet QB with tons of experience in the regular season/postseason/Super Bowl/pro bowl in front of him, and one QB who sat behind a vet with like 5 career starts over a 7 year career, which looks familiar, and it's worth noting that while that rookie may not have started week 1, he was inserted in week 2 and started week 3.

 

Talk about a quick autocorrect. Same thing happened last year with Trubisky and Watson.

 

I think you're focused too much on what you believe we should do rather than what is simply most likely to happen. And right or wrong (I guess we can debate that, too, though that's based completely on opinion), Allen's chances of starting are way way way higher than the crazy 5% number you threw out there.

 

 

Very simple question to end this post: if Allen is the hands-down winner of the QB competition this Summer--meaning he's the best QB and everyone can see it--do you actually think he (and the team) is best served on the bench as we start the season?

Edited July 5, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[reddogblitz]

On 7/5/2018 at 9:41 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

You're right. Nothing has changed. Allen's odds are still about the same as they were, though the fact that he probably exceeded performance expectations in OTAs and Minicamp have probably increased his chances a bit.

 

Same exact thing happened with EJ.  Then he had the magical 2:00 drive vs the Colts resulting in a TD  pass and we were sold.

[transplantbillsfan]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000939509/article/ranking-divisions-by-quarterback-nfc-north-nfc-west-top-list

For the sake of this exercise, I'm going to lift up the division by projecting that Allen and Darnold will play sooner than later. In fact, I give both a chance to start in Week 1. Especially Allen. I don't want to hear about AJ McCarron. And spare me the Nathan Peterman nonsense. The Bills smartly traded up for Allen because he's the next Carson Wentz and oozes talent. I believe in Darnold, too. I hope he wins the Jets' job. Meanwhile, Tom Brady is the greatest of all time. And Tannehill is a guy.

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

They were really talking up Peterman in OTAs wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if he gets the nod.

[reddogblitz]

13 hours ago, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

They were really talking up Peterman in OTAs wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if he gets the nod.

 

Who's "They"? Sportswriters?

[greeneblitz]

Anyone other than Josh Allen is just wasting time, why would we piss away games "training" McCarron or Peterman with a whole 5 games between them when obviously the coaching staff will just be looking to start Allen at the first opportunity, that just makes zero sense.

[Gigs]

Anyone who wants Allen to start at any point this year must cum within a minute or something. You people have absolutely no patience and don’t realize how far he has to go. But hey, keep cumming in a minute, that’ll make her happy. 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Gigs said:

Anyone who wants Allen to start at any point this year must cum within a minute or something. You people have absolutely no patience and don’t realize how far he has to go. But hey, keep cumming in a minute, that’ll make her happy. 

 

Well this sounds like an appropriate post 

 

It's rather odd you chose this analogy. Do you have issues of your own?

 

As to the point and disregarding your absurd analogy, how far exactly does Allen have to go? How much further ahead are Peterman and McCarron from where he is right now? Regardless of whatever progression Allen needs, what makes you think his progression will be better served on the bench than on the field?

 

I won't post the quotes or links again, but Allen's OC Brent Vigen (who also coached Carson Wentz) raved about Allen's progression in college and his ability to immediately step into the NFL and execute an NFL offense. Our GM Beane essentially shot down the national narrative that Allen is (too) raw in a post draft interview with Buffalo News.

 

He's also getting plenty of praise from teammates so far, including Shady, who's likely about the most bluntly honest player on our team.

 

Allen might be ready to start. That'll be determined this Summer. If he is and is better than Peterman and McCarron, I want him starting. 

Edited July 8, 2018 by transplantbillsfan