Combing through the negative Josh Allen Grades/Reviews

[starrymessenger]

I've never seen so polarizing a pick. From 30,000 feet it looks as though Allen gets support more from scouts and coaches and less, much less, from media pundits and fans. It will be interesting to see who winds up being right and who is wrong. I think this FO and coaching staff have pushed all their chips on the Allen square and if he fails, especially if he fails badly, it will be a heavy indictment of their ability to evaluate players at the most important position on the field. And it may even be reasonable to generalize the result as a comment on whether traditional/conservative ways of thinking about the job requirements are old fashioned and outdated (or not).

Although (as a fan) he would not have been my choice, especially with Rosen on the board, Allen was to me always legit as a first round talent, albeit a risky pick. So boom or bust. 

Im not that concerned about his footwork and related mechanical issues. There is lots of good tape of him doing things the right way to say hat he is capable of overcoming these difficulties with good coaching and reps. The real question has to do with his ability to master the mental aspects required to play the position at a high level. So reading a defence pre-snap, audiblizing as required, reacting to post-snap coverage changes (disguised defensive sets), going through progressions, making the right decisions, overcoming his youthful over- reliance on his cannon arm, knowing when to throw it away rather than play hero-ball, when to take a sack etc...It certainly is a good sign that he's intelligent and has intellectual capacity. The playbook should not be a problem for him. But the required execution depends more on having that instinctive-intuitive ability to react quickly and accurately to the on field action as it develops than mental capacity as such. Having that would enable his outstanding physical gifts to fully translate. Not having "it" means he will fall short, possibly far short, of the lofty expectations the Bills evidently have for him.

I really don't know how this will turn out.

[Trogdor]

Where is this mystery tape of Allen looking great for a whole game? I've seen a lot of highlight videos, but for every good throw he has at least two poor throws. I've seen a lot that would've been interceptions or defended against better defenses. I really hope that he develops, but there seems to be a contingent on this board that think he is game day ready and polished. Do we really need to just ignore the red flags or shout people down to root for him? 

[4merper4mer]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

So inaccurate...

 

 

More inaccuracy...

 

 

The horror...

 

 

Watching actual plays is so unadvanced.  You have to get smarter and look at the more advanced analytics.  Don't ever watch.  Analytics guys are like the geniuses in The Matrix who can watch numbers flow on a screen and tell you exactly what is going on.  

 

Thank God they're not just in baseball anymore.  For years I thought Cal Ripken was a great player until the SABR metrics guys said he was meh.  I can't wait to find out if Deandre Hopkins is as bad as Ripken or if Anthony Fasano is as great as Scott Hatteberg.  

[Wayne Arnold]

4 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Where is this mystery tape of Allen looking great for a whole game? I've seen a lot of highlight videos, but for every good throw he has at least two poor throws. I've seen a lot that would've been interceptions or defended against better defenses. I really hope that he develops, but there seems to be a contingent on this board that think he is game day ready and polished. Do we really need to just ignore the red flags or shout people down to root for him? 

 

Where is this mystery quarterback that is great for a whole game?

[drf1835]

So, let me get this right? There are plenty of positive things said about Allen, including by real media experts, and so that is wrong or misleading, as we can only talk about the negative things over and over again, and as the negatives supposedly have been less said, from others here and from all those less known or unknown media people. We should just dig up or focus on flaws, skeletens and concerns about all the qb draft prospects, so lets be just pessimistic and worry, and not be happy we have a chance of having a great qb here.. All those qbs went in the top 10 because of something great, or great potential, despite their risks.

 

There are only so many college qbs that may succeed in the nfl, and when one is there with lots of talent or potential,, a qb needy team needs to roll the dice and go for it, especially when losing so much for so many years without a top 10 rated qb, despite any naysayers, as projected better stars can turn into busts, and projected riskier but talented players can turn into stars, eventually flying above those ofhers. Of course teams can minimize risks by analyzing stats, intangibles and behaviors, or hope good luck is involved, but sometimes it will be a smart team going  against the grain or consensus, and trusting their gut feeling after analying all the good and bad and whether that player fits their team the best.

 

Each of the other 4 qbs in the top 5, could fail because of their stated flaws too. Many thought Luck would be a huge star. He has not been, and has not matched lofty expectations, and has had bad injury and supporting cast luck. Many thought Goff and Wenz would fail. They have far exceeded that, and have exceled.. Stats in college can sometimes can be misleading. Smarter persons can sift through that, and not assume things, as other factors can be involved, like very poor olines, a system or qb that focuses on getting the ball mostly downfield, and poorer receivers, and sometimes the sample size of games played can be smaller. Some stars in college get worse in the nfl; some semistars excel, when supporting casts and systems use their talent  better, or when more learning, experience and effective teachings occur.

 

My opinion thus is: We cannot change what we have now, nor would I necessarily want the other flaws from those other qbs, who were abd are far from perfect, too. The gm, head coach, AND owners seem to all agree Josh Allen is their guy. I will support them, JA, and focus on his abilities, and hope his coaching and Joshs hard work and dedication to be the best and prove the naysayers wrong will make this all work out. Nobody has the answer now what will happen. I just know I am on board with the Bills decision, and will give Allen time to grow as a qb, and not panick by the end of the first year regardless of stats. I will focus on his improvement, as the team also hopefully builds the offense around him, as this is a team game, without tons of supermen in this league who can lead the entire offense on their back.

 

 

[stinky finger]

3 hours ago, ALF said:

I just hope Beane and Jordan Palmer have it right. He will need a good OL and coaching to have a chance . 

 

They all do, pretty much.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I’m going with the Lack of Wide Receiver talent.  

 

The excuse was good enough for the last starter so not being hypocritical I will apply it to Allen as well.   

[hemma]

Sounds like this selective group of  writers read and plagiarize each others columns.  

According to that Sports Science tv show, take out deliberate throw-aways and spikes and he is at 65% completion.

 

Like a !@#$ing political campaign around here.  Come back in 4 years and judge, but until then, let the kid play.

[jr1]

Culley

[Victory Formation]

OL and WR issues.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

6 minutes ago, hemma said:

Sounds like this selective group of  writers read and plagiarize each others columns.  

According to that Sports Science tv show, take out deliberate throw-aways and spikes and he is at 65% completion.

 

Like a !@#$ing political campaign around here.  Come back in 4 years and judge, but until then, let the kid play.

That fits into the excuses for TT last season too.  

[PromoTheRobot]

For God's sake, if Allen is so bad how is it he was in the group of 4 top QB prospects? Pick a side already!

[stinky finger]

24 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Where is this mystery tape of Allen looking great for a whole game? I've seen a lot of highlight videos, but for every good throw he has at least two poor throws. I've seen a lot that would've been interceptions or defended against better defenses. I really hope that he develops, but there seems to be a contingent on this board that think he is game day ready and polished. Do we really need to just ignore the red flags or shout people down to root for him? 

 

Game day ready? polished?

 

Says who?

[PromoTheRobot]

2 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

That fits into the excuses for TT last season too.  

 

Pre-emptive bust calling?

Edited May 6, 2018 by PromoTheRobot

[MrEpsYtown]

31 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

It's no different than people blaming the long throw scheme they ran. The truth is that he wasn't nearly as accurate with long throws as the other top 5. His WRs had the lowest or second lowest drop percentage of the top 5. There has to be some other circumstance to just blow off completion percentage as a garbage stat, and he just doesn't have anything to prove that it isn't a problem. You can just watch the senior bowl drills and realize that he needs a lot of work to become an accurate QB. 

 

But people are using that stat and it is just a dumb stat. It says very little. If he throws 10-15, 5 yard bubble screens ala Mayfield, Rudolph, Darnold, then his completion percentage is over sixty. The guy was running a pro style offense that isn't one read and throw to a wide open guy. It involved running the ball and using play action. People are failing to see the whole picture. He's good enough to be a top ten pick in the opinion of pretty much the entire NFL, but he isn't good enough for a bunch of blog writers and message board guys on the internet? It's comical. I get that he has flaws, but using the completion percentage stat is just dumb. 

 

Outside of Rosen, his footwork is better than the rest of these guys. He has, by far, the strongest arm. He made full field reads. He is faster and more athletic than the guy who is 5 inches shorter and weights 30 pounds less. His upside is huge. People who can't see this are blinded by their own bias and the fact that they didn't get their guy and they are clinging to 56%. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

For God's sake, if Allen is so bad how is it he was in the group of 4 top QB prospects? Pick a side already!

Fake News / Alternate Truths 

 

[billspro]

1 hour ago, APoxOnYou said:

I'll give everyone on this forum a little tip as it seems most people in media/analytics like to grab onto a simple number that shows only a fraction of the whole picture. Completion Percentage ≠ QB Accuracy. 

 

 

Allen does not have accuracy issues, it is a lazy evaluation where people just look at his completion percentage and assume he has accuracy issues. He does miss some routine throws, especially when his footwork gets sloppy. I don't think he misses them at an unusually high rate or anything. I voted for reading a defense because Allen has not shown he can do that on a consistent basis. 

 

Allen needs to work on four things to be great IMO:

 

1) Get into a rhythm early - he needs to focus on easy completions and first downs early in the game

2) Don't force the big play- too often Allen looks past the check down to try and force a downfield throw. 

3) Footwork and timing- if he trusts his footwork and throws with a little more anticipation the short throws will be completed more often

4) Know when to give up on a play- He is going to take too many sacks if he runs around as much as he did in college

 

 

57 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

It's no different than people blaming the long throw scheme they ran. The truth is that he wasn't nearly as accurate with long throws as the other top 5. His WRs had the lowest or second lowest drop percentage of the top 5. There has to be some other circumstance to just blow off completion percentage as a garbage stat, and he just doesn't have anything to prove that it isn't a problem. You can just watch the senior bowl drills and realize that he needs a lot of work to become an accurate QB. 

 

I have seen that drop percentage stat being thrown around, but it is wrong. Allen's WRs had a very high drop percentage. They probably average around 4 drops per game, the Hawaii game was one of the worst, I counted 5 drops on 19 attempts. I don't think Allen's accuracy will be an issue at all, people are going to be surprised by that at training camp. 

[US Egg]

This draft will always be based on Allen, take him out of equation and the Bills 2018 draft looks solid. 

 

I see 3-4 of the non Allen draftees being day one regular participants beyond just on special teams.

[billsfan1959]

7 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

To the OP: You're preaching to the choir with me.

 

Allen over Rosen was a mistake; it was foolish to move up to take a guy like Allen; stats/history says Allen is almost certain to be a bust.

 

On the bright side, there will be more QBs coming out of college in the next few years and maybe we can get it right with one of them.

 

 

Thanks for finally being clear on where you stand. Your previous 500 "Allen is the worst QB on the planet" posts were a little ambiguous.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

To the OP: Would you consider changing your poll to allow more than one choice?

 

 

58 minutes ago, billspro said:

Allen does not have accuracy issues, it is a lazy evaluation where people just look at his completion percentage and assume he has accuracy issues. He does miss some routine throws, especially when his footwork gets sloppy. I don't think he misses them at an unusually high rate or anything. I voted for reading a defense because Allen has not shown he can do that on a consistent basis.

 

billspro, you're correct that completion percentage is different than accuracy, and it would be lazy if people just look at his completion percentage and say "accuracy issues"

 

That said, people who watch a lot of film (like every game of every QB) and take careful notes assume nothing - they call what they see, and they do see accuracy issues at a higher rate than other QB prospects this year (Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold).

 

I haven't watched every game, but I watched enough film of all the QB to say I do see accuracy issues with Allen sometimes, just as I did with Jackson, and they concerned me more because with Jackson I could link them to obvious mechanical issues (footwork, hip) but with Allen I couldn't.  Now Jordan Palmer is on record saying there was an issue he identified and Allen is working on, and it's one I think I wouldn't have picked up on (overstriding with his lead foot).

 

I'm not trying to be a downer here, in the past I've been one who argued I don't see why QB can't improve their mechanics.  I've also been wrong 2x recently in arguing for that.

 

Reading defense is also an issue.  I put that lower down because I think all QB entering the NFL have a lot to learn there - much simpler Ds in college, and slower game speed.