The fallacy of Allen being the bigger "risk" than Rosen

[TigerJ]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Two big differences between Manuel and Allen:

 

Wonderlic score - 28 vs  37

Head coach - McDermott prepares his players to succeed.  

Agreed.  A Wonderlic of 28 ought to be plenty for a QB to learn what he needs, but all other things being equal, smarter is always better.  The Wonderlic is a strictly timed test, so it also tests how fast your mind works, also an important criteria for a QB.  And yes, the head coach is critical as far as handling a QB the right way.

[Sky Diver]

The draft positions tell the tale of who teams valued at QB. Whether they were right or wrong remains to be seen.

[Elite Poster]

On 4/27/2018 at 9:27 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You got it.  The #1 thing about a QB is can he throw the football, and at game speed, can he read, process, and make the right decisions at game speed?  It is clear from film that Rosen can do this consistently.  It is clear from film that Allen can sometimes do this, in a weaker conference.

 

 

This is certainly an intangible that has to be considered.  My counterpoint is that all of these guys are young men who are about to be given access to an unreal amount of money and an unreal amount of media attention, and I think it's very difficult to predict how that will change anyone.   Will Allen lose his fire for the game once he can buy his Mom and Dad a new ranch house, the latest and greatest combine, pay off all their debts?  Jake Locker did.  Will Jackson lose his motivation once his fam is financially set for life, he can buy his mom a new house etc?   Might be behind Eddie Lacy's slide and others.

 

Still, it's a fair point that the QB has to rally the team and it might be true that Rosen can't and Allen can.  Possibility granted.

 

 

This, I think, goes along with something one of the former QB pundits said in an interview about Rosen - who was it?  on WGR - that a lot of QB rooms in the league have coaches who really aren't able to serve up all the "whys" and "wherefores" Rosen demands and who can't handle being questioned, and thus there will be conflict with Rosen.  I think Mora didn't want to say it in public about Hue Jackson and Todd Haley but I think that's behind what he said

 

 

What I don't understand about this is that Mayfield had 2 concussions in 3 games and Allen not only has had repetitive shoulder injuries (HS and a soft tissue injury that cost him a few games) but his first year at Wyoming he was sidelined with what was described as "major surgical reconstruction" of his shoulder.  But I never heard press concern about Mayfield's concussions or Allen's shoulder.

 

 

All of what you say is true, but also applies to Rosen, Jackson, and others who don't play in a spread offense.  But my concerns are mostly related to what I see on tape of Allen.

 

 

We can agree to disagree.   Allen may have a higher ceiling (smart guy, powerful arm, mobile) but at this point he 100% needs development as a QB, and may or may not ever take the steps he needs to take to get to where Rosen is as a passer and in his ability to read a defense and get the ball where it needs to go.  Teammates will follow a winner, and Allen has injury risks that aren't being discussed.

 

All that said, Allen is a Bill now and I'll be pulling for his success.

 

 

 

I was going to make a post like this but you took the words out of my mouth. 

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The problem with Rosen is injuries will eventually take him out of the league. I've seen every collegiate snap hes made and if he could stay healthy he would be the prize. I like the fact that Allen seems big, strong, durable and mobile. But obviously his NFL success will rely on accuracy and anticipation. 

 

You do realize the "durable" Allen injured his throwing shoulder three times so far, once needing major surgery?

 

Facts matter.

[John from Riverside]

We are gonna find out

 

The first couple of times Rosen takes an NFL hit

10 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

I was going to make a post like this but you took the words out of my mouth. 

 

You do realize the "durable" Allen injured his throwing shoulder three times so far, once needing major surgery?

 

Facts matter.

And still has that cannon.....

 

WOW

[Fadingpain]

Stopped reading with the reference to Rosen not being a "leader of men."

 

That is just made up BS that football fans talk about.

 

News flash: he doesn't need to be a leader of men, not that anyone knows if he is or isn't.  He needs to intelligently read defenses and throw a football accurately.  That's it.

True story!

 

 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Fadingpain

[Sky Diver]

3 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Stopped reading with the reference to Rosen not being a "leader of men."

 

That is just made up BS that football fans talk about.

 

News flash: he doesn't need to be a leader of men, not that anyone knows if he is or isn't.  He needs to intelligently read defenses and throw a football accurately.  That's it.

True story!

 

 

 

That’s not the way Nick Saban sees it. He decides based on who wins over the locker room.

[Aussie Joe]

Whilst I’m now all in on Allen, I would also like to see Rosen do well.

 

I think a lot of the criticism about him is unfounded..

[Augie]

I don’t know who the bigger risk is....they are both different risks. I’ll let you know what I think in a decade or so. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, The_Dude said:

 

If you’re ever board, watch this, 

 

 

hands down the greatest general of all time. He had some cool one liners too! “Veni. Vidi. Vici.”

That's cool.  Thanks.  

 

I keep saying here this game is about coaching.   Notice the only guy mentioned here on Caesar's team is Marc Antony, another leader.    No soldiers are named and few if any are remembered.   But as fighting units they were excellently prepared, and they obviously responded as directed, over and over, as Caesar kept analyzing and reanalyzing the situation.  

 

McDermott gets his troops prepared.   The big question in my mind is whether he can be the strategist Caesar was.  Can he see the who has what advantage, and can he strategize to overcome his opponent's advantages and to maximize his own?  

[The_Dude]

27 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's cool.  Thanks.  

 

I keep saying here this game is about coaching.   Notice the only guy mentioned here on Caesar's team is Marc Antony, another leader.    No soldiers are named and few if any are remembered.   But as fighting units they were excellently prepared, and they obviously responded as directed, over and over, as Caesar kept analyzing and reanalyzing the situation.  

 

McDermott gets his troops prepared.   The big question in my mind is whether he can be the strategist Caesar was.  Can he see the who has what advantage, and can he strategize to overcome his opponent's advantages and to maximize his own?  

 

Thats it, Shaw! I’m a combat veteran, and a student of history. I study military history, especially Roman, and it gives me the same thrill as football kinda. It’s all about teamwork and execution. 

 

The average Roman was 5’5”, and didn’t weigh much. The Gauls were bigger and their size scared the Romans....but it didn’t matter because of their training, and execution...or, ‘their process.’

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...and I'll take "The Risk" over "The Putz" EVERY time period.................

[oldmanfan]

All but a very few first round QB picks are risky.  Look at history.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

All but a very few first round QB picks are risky.  Look at history.

 

...LOL "Oldy"..."all but a few"?......look at the crop....er crap (dammit-had to override spellcheck) in the 1st over the last decade......majority would NOT even be UDFA's yesteryear or even a consideration as a p/k holder......some still masquerading as QB's and getting paid should be indicted for "highway robbery".....

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

All but a very few first round QB picks are risky.  Look at history.

True but some are riskier than others.  The Rosen slide reminds of the Rodgers’ slide in his draft.  Obviously I’m not an “expert” but of all the qbs in this draft, Rosen looked like a potential franchise guy.   All I’ve heard of Allen is excuses for his faults.  I think people completely are overlooking how crappy UCLA was.  They had one of the worst defenses in the entire country (Jim Mora defensive guru!!!) and there weren’t a lot of players surrounding Rosen.  He basically needed to put 40 points/ game.  And as other have pointed out, he missed less games in college than Allen.

 

You dont draft qb prospects in the top 10.  It’s why I don’t like the Allen pick.  Of the games I watched, he seemed like the definition of a mid round, huge potential upside pick.  

 

While its unfair, Allen will always be linked with Rosen, Mahomes, and Watson.  And those guys are in much better situations than Allen.  I think Rosen is going to be really, really good and playing with Fitz will him those leadership “questions.”

[Elite Poster]

3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

We are gonna find out

 

The first couple of times Rosen takes an NFL hit

And still has that cannon.....

 

WOW

 

I'm all in on Allen, but facts are facts. Our QB has had the most significant injuries and it's been a recurring problem. Canon? sure. Games missed? yup.

52 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

While its unfair, Allen will always be linked with Rosen, Mahomes, and Watson.  And those guys are in much better situations than Allen.  I think Rosen is going to be really, really good and playing with Fitz will him those leadership “questions.”

 

Not unfair at all, that's life. 

[oldmanfan]

I would have liked Rosen but apparently his attitude may have been an issue with our guys, and other teams.  As for Allen, he may get compared to Rosen but I see no reason to compare him to guys in other draft classes.  I would have liked Watson last year, but Mahomes?  One read guy from a weak conference with terrible footwork and a big arm?  And he's supposed to be some kind of god's gift to the QB position?

 

Allen is like any other first round QB not named Manning or Luck or Elway.  He has a lot of positives, and some negatives.  For all these guys it boils down to whether they can mentally process the NFL game.  Can they slow the game down so they make the right plays?  We'll see, not just for Allen but all these guys.

[xxxxxxxx]

I've made my peace with Allen, but still would have preferred not trading up if Rosen was passed over. The major problem that I still have is the mechanics/ inaccuracy issue and its relationship with muscle memory. Lots of QB's have shown improved mechanics in practice (Tebow is a good example) ,  but when the preassure of a big game situation kicks in they can easily revert back to old mechanics. Until he's taken more snaps and thrown more balls without screwing up his footwork (and its going to take over a year, maybe two, maybe three) there is no guarantee that he will not revert back to old habits. 

 

Rosen does not have this problem. He can begin learning to diagnose NFL defenses from day 1 without worrying about his feet. Time will tell, but even if Allen surpases Rosen (which is certainly possible) it will probably be near the end of his rookie contract and he will want a big deal, so we will lose the cap advantage that a young qb creates. 

Sure Rosen is a bit of a jerk, but he's also a kid and kids mature. He has no off the field concerns, and if he is succesful early all the character nonsense will be forgotten (winning does wonders for a locker room).

 

Most likely, Rosen is better out the gate. Ideally, Allen is better long term. That is what the team is betting on, and its a gamble. If his footwork gets fixed and stays fixed it could work out. 

 

[Zerovoltz]

On 4/27/2018 at 8:07 AM, Magox said:

I want to preface these series of thoughts with the fact that I was hoping for Rosen over Allen.  With that said one of the common gripes that I am hearing from some of our fans on this board is that Josh Allen is the bigger risk for this franchise than Rosen.   The argument goes something along the lines that Rosen is the best pure passer, the most NFL ready therefore he's close to a sure thing.  Whereas Allen is the big armed QB who is inaccurate similar to EJ Manuel and he's got Bust written all over him.

 

On the surface this argument makes sense.

 

However, there are huge gaping holes with this argument.

 

A) One of the big things that people talked about including lots of whispers from NFL personnel is that Rosen was not a leader of men.  Some questioned his demeanor and whether or not his heart was fully in the game.  I don't know whether or not that stuff is true or not but it was definitely out there.  I will say this, the little that I observed of him I definitely saw a smugness about him.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  But it was certainly palpable and if I saw that after a few interviews then I'm certain that this reputation was observed by many others as well.   The fact that his ex coach Mora could not give him a full-throated endorsement and even picked his in-state rival as being the QB who should be picked first to me screams of a red flag.  Sure, Mora tried backtracking some and equivocating why he said that, but the bottom line is that he didn't feel the urge to gush about the player he coached.   

 

B) His injury concerns. Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question.  He's had a couple concussions and I believe a shoulder injury that kept him out for some time.  He's not the most mobile QB, tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes because he's a QB that likes to try to make plays but if you are in the NFL and you don't have great protection and you hold on to the ball too long and you are prone to some injuries, it's stands to reason to believe he could be an injury prone QB in this league.   That is a risk.

 

Allen on the other hand is a big hulking QB that can not only shake off arm tackles but he's very mobile and makes amazing throws on the run.  Considering the offensive line we have, this is probably a better fit than Rosen is essentially just a pocket passer.

 

While Allen has his shortcomings primarily in the accuracy department, it is an overblown charge that people make and it is without doubt in many cases an on-the-surface observation primarily to the famed 56% completion rate.   There certainly is some there there.  But a few things you have to keep in mind.  

 

A) This was a down-the-field sort of throwing offense which is more susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates

B)  His offensive line was very weak and he was constantly under duress. 

C) His WR's were very poor and they weren't able to get a lot of separation.

 

His intermediate and long range passing is really good, where he struggles are his short passes.  That is something that will have to be worked on and to me that is more a matter of setting his feet/mechanics and from what I've been reading it is something that he has worked on and improved, as evidenced in the Senior bowl game.  He was the best performing QB that attended this year.  

 

You have posted some contradictory statements here.  (A This was a down the field sort of throwing offense which is susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates...but then in your next statement, you say that Allen excelled at long range passing.  .....it would seem that the offense was therefore geared to take advantage of something you say Allen does well...wich should lead to BETTER NUMBER...not worse numbers.  So, was it beneficial to throw downfield more, or not?  

 

The guy is also an anticipation thrower that can hit receivers in small windows.  He's also a very intelligent guy and hard worker and a leader or men.   Where he needs some work on the mental aspect are his progressions which of course is a very important element.  To me, this is his biggest risk into becoming a franchise QB.

 

While they both have their risks, it is a fallacy from my point of view to believe that Allen is the bigger risk considering that Rosen may have troubles leading his teammates and his injury risks.  

 

There is a reason why not only was the whisper campaign in NFL evaluator/GM circles in full effect to "stay away" from Rosen and the fact that teams in need of QB's early on decided to forgo him, not to mention that most mocks had Allen being selected over Rosen.  It's not because he doesn't have the talent, it's because of these other concerns.

 

Rosen could very well end up being the better QB, but the risks are there and they are reasonably undeniable.    Again, this is not so much an argument of who is going to be the better QB it's to address the fallacy that Allen is the bigger risk.

 

you make a valid point about risk management here for sure.  I would simply ask....that given the Risks with Rosen are based on his percieved aloofness and arogance...personality....and injury history.....vs the more tangible metric of completion percentage/results on the field for Allen....is Rosen the bigger risk?  I don't propose to know, but some arogant jerks who can produce on the field have been good pros before...whereas this completion pct/stats issue for Allen has a lot of actual math behind it to suggest there is substantial risk.  .....again.....I am not trying to say one or the other is a more worthwhile risk.....certainly an interesting take on it.  

[transplantbillsfan]

15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think it's interesting that this thread got resurrected.  As I examine my own thinking on July 2, this thread demonstrates how pointless all those pre-draft discussions about qbs were.  

 

I mean, if you're a gm, you're asking those questions daily before the draft, but the questions are now completely irrelevant. If you're an owner, those questions next become relevant a year or two from now as you evaluate your gm's performance. 

 

But now it's July, training camp will start soon, and all this analysis just doesn't matter now.  The Bills have a roster, they're going to camp and they'll put together the best team they can.  I will watch and cheer and worry, and we will see what happens.  

 

Will I be taking a look to see how Darnold and Mayfield and Rosen are doing?  Sure, especially Darnold because he's in the division.  But for me, the question is how good is my team, not how good is some player that some other team got.

 

After Mayfield and Darnold went off the board I wanted Rosen.  Then when the Bills traded up and we're on the clock, literally seconds before thir pick was announced, I changed my mind.  I wanted the better athlete with the better attitude.  NFL-ready is a bogus concept when you're looking for a ten-year player

 

Good for you. Fortunate timing on your part to change your mind.

 

I wanted Mayfield and Darnold, too. And even though I was talking Mayfield up the most before the draft, Darnold was the guy I had my heart set on.

 

Mayfield was the sexy girl with the tramp stamp new to town who flirted with me in HR every day.

 

Darnold was the cute girl who was my lab partner for a couple years and let me take her out for coffee a few times.

 

Allen is the arranged marriage my parents' forced upon me against my wishes immediately graduating HS, but luckily she brought beer, is attractive, and has the same sense of humor. I don't know if she's any good in the sack, yet.

 

Rosen was the girl I wanted my parents to choose, since I wasn't allowed to choose, but right after I found out My parents chose Allen and I asked why, they told me it was because Rosen has syphilis and gonorrhea. And I saw Rosen walk into the free clinic the other day, too. Parents know best.

[billsredneck1]

i originally preferred that if we did not get mayfield, that i was more in line to stand pat. i was thinking vita vea then rudolph. i really wanted to use both 2nds and basically use all our picks. i think the steelers hit a home run by taking rudolph and his main guy washington. i predict than when big ben hangs them up, they will not skip a beat.

 

while i have very much come around to allen, and hope he turns into a cross between kelly and elway, i wouldn't be surprised if rudolph has the most long term success in this class.

i think it would be insanity to start allen especially the first 4 games, but hope he takes us to the promised land next year and beyond.