The fallacy of Allen being the bigger "risk" than Rosen

[Mat68]

Rosen vs Allen.  Do you want ceiling of Farve or ceiling of Ryan.  Ones a hall of fame super MVP the other remains to be seen.  Give me Farve all day every day.  Good defense and a few big plays wins games and early.

[Bing Bong]

6 hours ago, Magox said:

 

Relax Sally,

 

I was just goofing around.  

That's cool, I can goof around about Matt Ryan's girly form too. He's an MVP lmao

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Brady moves exceptionally well in the pocket. Probably as good or better than any QB since Namath at manipulating the pocket 

 

and that was my point about being able to move inside or outside the pocket... you need to be able to do atleast 1 well to succeed 

 

Brady is a savant In the pocket 

 

Rosen isn’t great at mucking through deep water in the pocket yet, and he isn’t good outside the pocket , that was my point

 

I did say he can be a Matt Ryan type

 

Hmmm.  Well, you know your film...it's been my impression, certainly of recent years, that Brady is living on quick release, and vulnerable if he can't.

Now I really should go watch some film and see what I'm missing....maybe that's why I think Dante Scarnecchia always puts a fantastic OL together out of baling wire and twine, because Brady is manipulating the pocket?

 

...but that would mean watching Brady....

 

Naaaah.

 

Can't give Brady better though.  Brees is King IMO.

 

and I could be wrong again, but while Brees had pretty footwork and pocket sense at Purdue, I don't think Brady came into the league with it.  Apparently it can be learned.

[Buffalo716]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Hmmm.  Well, you know your film...it's been my impression, certainly of recent years, that Brady is living on quick release, and vulnerable if he can't.

Now I really should go watch some film and see what I'm missing....maybe that's why I think Dante Scarnecchia always puts a fantastic OL together out of baling wire and twine, because Brady is manipulating the pocket?

 

...but that would mean watching Brady....

 

Naaaah.

 

Can't give Brady better though.  Brees is King IMO.

 

and I could be wrong again, but while Brees had pretty footwork and pocket sense at Purdue, I don't think Brady came into the league with it.  Apparently it can be learned.

 

Brady is really the anomaly... he was never a full time college starter , battled a 5* recruit And was scrawny... he was smooth and accurate but that’s all

 

its a testament that hard work and dedication Can do anything 

 

As for Brady and Brees they are probably 1a 1b for pocket awareness and pocket maneuverability... they both do it a bit differently 

 

Brees is known for long drop backs giving him a little more time while Brady is a fan of shorter drops to get the ball out

 

but it doesn’t change that they both have eyes in The back of their heads and they both make dlineman look silly in the pocket 

 

and you are right Brees has always had fantastic feet since Purdue

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2015/05/14/functionally-mobile-quarterbacks-aaron-rodgers-tom-brady-drew-brees

 

here is a good SI article talking about how they are wizards in the pocket

Edited July 5, 2018 by Buffalo716

[Zerovoltz]

I've never seen a QB who understand an NFL pocket better than Tom Brady.  I don't like the Patriots...and I am certain the Patriots are hated universally here...but you watch the guy and litterally, the one thing he does that makes him elite instead of average is that he stands tall in the pocket...sliding left/right or moving up/back just slightly as needed to maintain himself in a small spot and area while KEEPING HIS EYES downfield.  In the NFL, so often, the winning play is made when the QB has time to make a read and throw.  And so often the QB is his own worst enemy, by taking your eyes off your targets and looking at pass rushers and tyring to see where you can run to...you are no longer looking for the best target.  Plays can and are made from this circumstance....but once the QB no longer can see ALL of  his available targets on the field..the chance the defense will win the play goes way up.  Brady wins from the pocket at a HIGH RATE because he almost always is standing up straight, eyes downfield...finding the best target and delivering the ball to that target.  

 

That's it...there is no magic..and certainly Brady doesn't ahve a cannon arm and he can't run....his excpetional skill is understanding how to win in an NFL pocket.  That is it.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

53 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

I've never seen a QB who understand an NFL pocket better than Tom Brady.  I don't like the Patriots...and I am certain the Patriots are hated universally here...but you watch the guy and litterally, the one thing he does that makes him elite instead of average is that he stands tall in the pocket...sliding left/right or moving up/back just slightly as needed to maintain himself in a small spot and area while KEEPING HIS EYES downfield.  In the NFL, so often, the winning play is made when the QB has time to make a read and throw.  And so often the QB is his own worst enemy, by taking your eyes off your targets and looking at pass rushers and tyring to see where you can run to...you are no longer looking for the best target.  Plays can and are made from this circumstance....but once the QB no longer can see ALL of  his available targets on the field..the chance the defense will win the play goes way up.  Brady wins from the pocket at a HIGH RATE because he almost always is standing up straight, eyes downfield...finding the best target and delivering the ball to that target.  

 

That's it...there is no magic..and certainly Brady doesn't ahve a cannon arm and he can't run....his excpetional skill is understanding how to win in an NFL pocket.  That is it.

 

...deadly accurate observation......but did that grow over time?.......if not, why did he fall to the 6th at #199?........if that pocket awareness was an existing trait, he would not have been on the bench in Michigan.....strictly my opinion, but this guy worked his tail off to develop his craft, knew it would not come easy but persevered and had the right coaching around him......and of course the yipping minions will chime in with their "cheat crap"......hard to deny he's the GOAT of "his era".......too many changes in the game over the years to anoint a GOAT, but that's just my opinion....his perseverance and work ethic paid off handsomely as well as a skill set that would eventually fit the speed and complexity of the NF game.........Tebow had a helluva work ethic but washed out.....TT had a hell of a work ethic and worked his tail off, but did not pan out in Bflo with hopefully greener pastures in Cleveland....

Edited July 5, 2018 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[Sky Diver]

Interesting that with the exception of one attempt, Rosen had a clean pocket with plenty of time to throw the ball.

 

From what I have seen, he's not very mobile, he doesn't have good pocket awareness, he doesn't throw well on the move,  and he tries to extend plays when he should get rid of the ball resulting in big hits/injuries.

 

If you watch the A&M game, which he was lauded for, he threw several passes that should have been intercepted. The A&M secondary was completely inept.

 

Rosen is highly overrated, imo.

 

 

Edited July 5, 2018 by Sky Diver

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 4/27/2018 at 9:07 AM, Magox said:

I want to preface these series of thoughts with the fact that I was hoping for Rosen over Allen.  With that said one of the common gripes that I am hearing from some of our fans on this board is that Josh Allen is the bigger risk for this franchise than Rosen.   The argument goes something along the lines that Rosen is the best pure passer, the most NFL ready therefore he's close to a sure thing.  Whereas Allen is the big armed QB who is inaccurate similar to EJ Manuel and he's got Bust written all over him.

 

On the surface this argument makes sense.

 

However, there are huge gaping holes with this argument.

 

A) One of the big things that people talked about including lots of whispers from NFL personnel is that Rosen was not a leader of men.  Some questioned his demeanor and whether or not his heart was fully in the game.  I don't know whether or not that stuff is true or not but it was definitely out there.  I will say this, the little that I observed of him I definitely saw a smugness about him.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  But it was certainly palpable and if I saw that after a few interviews then I'm certain that this reputation was observed by many others as well.   The fact that his ex coach Mora could not give him a full-throated endorsement and even picked his in-state rival as being the QB who should be picked first to me screams of a red flag.  Sure, Mora tried backtracking some and equivocating why he said that, but the bottom line is that he didn't feel the urge to gush about the player he coached.   

 

B) His injury concerns.  Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question.  He's had a couple concussions and I believe a shoulder injury that kept him out for some time.  He's not the most mobile QB, tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes because he's a QB that likes to try to make plays but if you are in the NFL and you don't have great protection and you hold on to the ball too long and you are prone to some injuries, it's stands to reason to believe he could be an injury prone QB in this league.   That is a risk.

 

Allen on the other hand is a big hulking QB that can not only shake off arm tackles but he's very mobile and makes amazing throws on the run.  Considering the offensive line we have, this is probably a better fit than Rosen is essentially just a pocket passer.

 

While Allen has his shortcomings primarily in the accuracy department, it is an overblown charge that people make and it is without doubt in many cases an on-the-surface observation primarily to the famed 56% completion rate.   There certainly is some there there.  But a few things you have to keep in mind.  

 

A) This was a down-the-field sort of throwing offense which is more susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates

B)  His offensive line was very weak and he was constantly under duress. 

C) His WR's were very poor and they weren't able to get a lot of separation.

 

His intermediate and long range passing is really good, where he struggles are his short passes.  That is something that will have to be worked on and to me that is more a matter of setting his feet/mechanics and from what I've been reading it is something that he has worked on and improved, as evidenced in the Senior bowl game.  He was the best performing QB that attended this year.

 

The guy is also an anticipation thrower that can hit receivers in small windows.  He's also a very intelligent guy and hard worker and a leader or men.   Where he needs some work on the mental aspect are his progressions which of course is a very important element.  To me, this is his biggest risk into becoming a franchise QB.

 

While they both have their risks, it is a fallacy from my point of view to believe that Allen is the bigger risk considering that Rosen may have troubles leading his teammates and his injury risks.  

 

There is a reason why not only was the whisper campaign in NFL evaluator/GM circles in full effect to "stay away" from Rosen and the fact that teams in need of QB's early on decided to forgo him, not to mention that most mocks had Allen being selected over Rosen.  It's not because he doesn't have the talent, it's because of these other concerns.

 

Rosen could very well end up being the better QB, but the risks are there and they are reasonably undeniable.    Again, this is not so much an argument of who is going to be the better QB it's to address the fallacy that Allen is the bigger risk.

 

The basis of Allen risk analysis is- completion % in the pros is lower than in college (most of the time) and a sub 55% completion rate won’t lead to much of a career. 

 

Rosen’s risk analysis revolves around thinking he’s a self absorbed jerk... plenty of those still end up being really good football players. 

 

Regarding injuries, Allen missed more time than Rosen. 

 

On the surface these generalizations hold up... generally. But there are exceptions.  

 

The risk is appropriately assigned to Allen given the hope he is an exception 

 

 

[Sky Diver]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

The basis of Allen risk analysis is- completion % in the pros is lower than in college (most of the time) and a sub 55% completion rate won’t lead to much of a career. 

 

Rosen’s risk analysis revolves around thinking he’s a self absorbed jerk... plenty of those still end up being really good football players. 

 

Regarding injuries, Allen missed more time than Rosen. 

 

On the surface these generalizations hold up... generally. But there are exceptions.  

 

The risk is appropriately assigned to Allen given the hope he is an exception 

 

 

 

There are more issues with Rosen than his personality.

[starrymessenger]

On July 4, 2018 at 10:59 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

The only difference is NE and Pitt had better options in front of Brady and Big Ben (Tommy Maddox went to the playoffs and was comeback player of the year).  Injuries forced their hands.

 

i think Allen should sit as long as possible.  But man, we should notice a difference in his ability vs. 2 former 5th rounders with very average abilities.

 

Yeah what you say about the teams in front of Brady and Ben back then is true. I had forgotten to consider that. OTOH haven't all the recent first round QBs started at least one or more games their rookie year? I'd be surprised if Allen didn't start a few games.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Brady is really the anomaly... he was never a full time college starter , battled a 5* recruit And was scrawny... he was smooth and accurate but that’s all

its a testament that hard work and dedication Can do anything 

 

My question being, if Brady can come in the league and improve his pocket awareness and functional mobility in the pocket, in theory, couldn't someone else?

Eli Manning has been quoted as saying that pocket awareness/mobility is something you either have, or don't have - but then folks say that about accurate passing too (*cough*) and we're certainly hoping someone can improve (*cough*)

 

OMG in that link you posted, the Brees play ROTFL.

 

I don't know, I grant you Brady being more mobile in the pocket than I thought - 3 yrs ago anyway.  But somehow, his escapes always seem to involve shady doings by his OLmen - somehow wrestling a charging DT to the ground without holding, nope, Mr Ref, not holding, I guess my hand just stuck, yeah, he must have sticky stuff on his jersey?

 

On the other hand that Brees play: "I got him!" "I do too!" "We'll make a SANDWICH of that little punk"  SMASH  "Wait, I hit you.  You hit me" "Where'd he go?" 

"@#$!!!!"

Maybe I just dislike Brady too much to be fair to him.

[Buffalo716]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My question being, if Brady can come in the league and improve his pocket awareness and functional mobility in the pocket, in theory, couldn't someone else?

Eli Manning has been quoted as saying that pocket awareness/mobility is something you either have, or don't have - but then folks say that about accurate passing too (*cough*) and we're certainly hoping someone can improve (*cough*)

 

OMG in that link you posted, the Brees play ROTFL.

 

I don't know, I grant you Brady being more mobile in the pocket than I thought - 3 yrs ago anyway.  But somehow, his escapes always seem to involve shady doings by his OLmen - somehow wrestling a charging DT to the ground without holding, nope, Mr Ref, not holding, I guess my hand just stuck, yeah, he must have sticky stuff on his jersey?

 

On the other hand that Brees play: "I got him!" "I do too!" "We'll make a SANDWICH of that little punk"  SMASH  "Wait, I hit you.  You hit me" "Where'd he go?" 

"@#$!!!!"

Maybe I just dislike Brady too much to be fair to him.

 

I have always usually leaned toward the Manning school of thought when it comes to pocket awareness... you either have it or you don’t... even though it definitely improves as a learned skill with experience, though how much not sure

 

Brees really is a savant in the pocket, the way he works the pocket and finds passing lanes in between the lineman

 

I think he’s the most accurate QB of all time

 

and I didn’t watch enough of Brady at Michigan to give you a good opinion on what his pocket presence was like hapless

 

and it’s hard to get full game tape from that era so I can’t easily go back and look but I will say by most accounts he was a very smooth and wily QB just very underdeveloped 

 

so he probably was pretty good in the pocket coming out

Edited July 6, 2018 by Buffalo716

[Domdab99]

This is a long thread for basically saying, "I hope Allen is better than Rosen."

[Orlando Tim]

I 

1 hour ago, Domdab99 said:

This is a long thread for basically saying, "I hope Allen is better than Rosen."

I agree overall but a more specific thought is " the health/attitude of Rosen is bigger threat than Allen inaccuracy concerns"

[Bing Bong]

I DON'T WANT SOME QUARTERBACK WITH THAT GIRLY HOURGLASS FRAME. LOOKS LIKE A GIRL.

[formerlyofCtown]

13 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

I have always usually leaned toward the Manning school of thought when it comes to pocket awareness... you either have it or you don’t... even though it definitely improves as a learned skill with experience, though how much not sure

 

Brees really is a savant in the pocket, the way he works the pocket and finds passing lanes in between the lineman

 

I think he’s the most accurate QB of all time

 

and I didn’t watch enough of Brady at Michigan to give you a good opinion on what his pocket presence was like hapless

 

and it’s hard to get full game tape from that era so I can’t easily go back and look but I will say by most accounts he was a very smooth and wily QB just very underdeveloped 

 

so he probably was pretty good in the pocket coming out

It's instinctive.  It isn't something that can be taught and it can be learned.  The ability to learn it I would agree is natural.  

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

It's instinctive.  It isn't something that can be taught and it can be learned.  The ability to learn it I would agree is natural.  

 

Exactly, it’s innate 

[C.Biscuit97]

12 hours ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

I DON'T WANT SOME QUARTERBACK WITH THAT GIRLY HOURGLASS FRAME. LOOKS LIKE A GIRL.

I DON’T WANT TO SAY IM A GEIEUS (THISE MOST PEOPLE SAY I AM) BUT I CALL HIM JILL ROSEN.  GIRLS SHOULD BE IN KITCHEN AND NOT PLAYING FOOTBALL! SORRY BUT ITS THE TOOTH! SAD!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

I DON'T WANT SOME QUARTERBACK WITH THAT GIRLY HOURGLASS FRAME. LOOKS LIKE A GIRL.

 

YEAH, WE ONLY WANT HE-MAN QB!  SIGN BROCK OSWEILER!

https://tinyurl.com/ybjg8t4s

 

 

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

It's instinctive.  It isn't something that can be taught and it can be learned.  The ability to learn it I would agree is natural.  

 

57 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Exactly, it’s innate 

 

Well Thank you Very Much Now I'm so confused! 

 

If it's instinctive and can't be taught - sounds innate

If it can be learned, given some level of "ability to learn it" - sounds like it should be able to be taught?

 

If something can be learned, why can't it be taught?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

14 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

I have always usually leaned toward the Manning school of thought when it comes to pocket awareness... you either have it or you don’t... even though it definitely improves as a learned skill with experience, though how much not sure

 

Brees really is a savant in the pocket, the way he works the pocket and finds passing lanes in between the lineman

 

I think he’s the most accurate QB of all time

 

and I didn’t watch enough of Brady at Michigan to give you a good opinion on what his pocket presence was like hapless

 

and it’s hard to get full game tape from that era so I can’t easily go back and look but I will say by most accounts he was a very smooth and wily QB just very underdeveloped 

 

so he probably was pretty good in the pocket coming out

 

.....dead on my friend.....always thought the first and foremost thing to look for was a "fast Intel chip between the ears".......for what these guys have to process in 5 seconds or less is uncanny.....I can't even open a DAMN BEER in 5 seconds......and you sure as hell have to have some semblance of "IT" upon arrival at this level.....not sure how you train one's "gray matter" to speed up.......Steve Young said, "more collegians fail versus succeed at the NFL level due to the speed and complexity of the game"......you can work your tail off, have an exemplary work ethic and team attitude but struggle with a "slow Intel chip".......observation and not a criticism....as much as I hoped like hell the kid could make it, I think this was an impediment for TT, but maybe Hugh can figure something out....