Bandit's Annual Mock

[thebandit27]

23 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Love this outcome ... but I think there is some wishful thinking involved here. 

 

I tried so hard to give Darnold to Cleveland, but the feeling that they want Allen just won't go away 

[Augie]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I tried so hard to give Darnold to Cleveland, but the feeling that they want Allen just won't go away 

 

It’s too bad they can’t pick Johnny Manziel again. 

[Fan boy '92]

I don't see how Darnold gets passed one let go two, but I like your style. It's the Bills' ideal scenario for sure.

[Bob in STL]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

Can’t help thinking we can get to 5 with just 12 and 22.  I think it will be a buyers’ market.

With such high demand on QBs I doubt it. 

 

The Jets gave up a lot and set the market.

[D521646]

I'd be happy with Darnold, even though I want Mayfield, but I don't think the Browns are picking a QB at 1, and if they do, it won't be Allen, IMO.  Can't really argue with any of the reasoning behind your selections though, nice job, well thought out.

 

Tim- 

[Domdab99]

I’d rather they pick Rosen than Darnold, but this is a good 1st round draft. Could very well happen this way.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

As many of you know, I do one (and only one) mock draft each year, and you’d all ever stop reading it and indulging my ramblings, then you wouldn’t have to suffer it anymore.

 

However, since that hasn’t happened yet, I do hereby present Bandit’s 2018 Mock Draft for your enjoyment, bemusement, criticism, etc.

 

Note that what I present here is what I believe will happen, and not what I would do were I each team’s decision-maker.

 

As always, I’ll note that I’m only average at best when it comes to predicting these things.  In a given year, I’ll correctly connect only 5-8 players with the team that drafts them, and predict 24-26 of the players that are selected in round 1, so please keep that in mind before you praise or criticize the work

 

Now, without any further ado, here we go…

 

1. Cleveland Browns: Josh Allen-QB/Wyoming

 

There’s no way that this pick is anything other than a QB, and I want to give them Sam Darnold. Heck, if it were me, and my choice came down to Allen or Darnold, I would pick Sam Darnold.  But here’s the thing: none of us are John Dorsey, and none of us have the #1 pick in the draft.  Here’s the other thing: they traded a high pick for Tyrod Taylor and then signed a competent backup in Drew Stanton, so obviously they’re willing to be patient with their rookie.  I’m giving them Allen; partially because I’ve been convinced that he was in the conversation for this pick since March, and partly because I think his deficiencies are correctible.  For as much as they’ll be panned if Allen doesn’t work out, he is most definitely the best QB in this class when he’s right.  The upside is that if he realizes his potential, he could be a HOFer.

 

2. New York Giants: Saquon Barkley-RB/Penn State

 

New GM Dave Gettlmen has been clear that he values the RB position.  For a team that finished 26^th in the league in rushing yards per game, averaged less than 4.0 YPC for the 2^nd consecutive season, and will turn over 80% of its offensive line from 2017 to 2018, they sorely need some superstar talent in the run game.  Barkley is an absolute monster; he averaged nearly 6.0 YPC in 2 of his 3 college seasons and scored 23 TDs in his final season at Happy Valley.  His athletic numbers are off the charts, and he’s built to handle an NFL workload.  Putting pressure on opposing front-7s should provide Eli Manning and the Giants crop of speed receivers more room to make plays down the field--something that was conspicuously absent in the 2017 offense.

 

3. New York Jets (f/ Ind): Baker Mayfield-QB/Oklahoma

 

Everyone knows the Jets are taking a QB, but which one?  Well, when you’re coming off of the milquetoast selections of guys like Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg, it makes sense to lean away from the type that’s failed you in the past.  Mayfield is the polar opposite of those players: he lacks the measurables, but far surpasses their playmaking ability and competitiveness.  New offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates is a former underling of Jon Gruden, who loved the QBs that could work the intermediate routes accurately and make use of big targets in the passing game.  Mayfield is accurate and athletic, but will need to prove that he can make plays without the benefit of 3+ seconds in the pocket.  If he can, he’ll prove the Jets wise in paying the butcher’s bill to move into the top 3.

 

4. Cleveland Browns: Bradley Chubb-EDGE/NC State

 

Want to see a team that just got better?  Look at the Browns, who after adding a QB at 1, add the draft’s best defensive player.  Now imagine, if you dare, the long nights that offensive coordinators will have trying to figure out how to stop a pass rush that features hyper-freak Myles Garrett (who had 7.0 sacks in 11 games as a rookie), and Chubb, who averaged 10.0 sacks and 22.0 TFLs in his final 2 seasons at NC State.  You couldn’t find a better situation for Chubb to enter as a rookie, as he won’t have to be the lead dog in Cleveland’s pass rush, and for DC Gregg Williams, he can now rotate these two studs with 2016 2^nd rounder Emmanuel Ogbah to keep the pressure coming.

 

**TRADE**

Buffalo trades picks 12, 22, and 65 to Denver for pick 5

 

5. Buffalo Bills (f/ Den): Sam Darnold-QB/USC

 

Could this really happen?  From certain #1 overall pick to #5 in a trade-down?  It’s a bit of a fall, but let’s face it: the concerns regarding his propensity for turnovers are legitimate. What makes him the apple of Buffalo’s eye?  He has the best combination of accuracy, arm strength, athleticism, and scheme diversity of any QB in this class. He also executed a lot of the kind of RPO-style offense that Brian Daboll wants to run, and aside from the on-field stuff, he’s a “process” guy.  What would be interesting to see is how many fans welcome another California kid to Western NY.

 

6. Indianapolis Colts (f/ NYJ): Roquan Smith-LB/Georgia

 

In an apparent effort to prove himself the antithesis of predecessor Ryan Grigson, GM Chris Ballard has spent his free agent dollars sparingly and chosen to accumulate draft capitol to reload his team’s talent base.  He could start with quite the bang by adding Smith, who is the draft’s most complete off-ball linebacker (and those of you that know the author know what a compliment that is from me).  The 2017 Colts did not have a defender that finished in the top-40 in the NFL in solo tackles, and had only one player (Jabaal Sheard) crest 3.0 sacks.  Smith not only ranges sideline-to-sideline collecting tackles (he had 85 in 2017), he’s also a very effective pass-rusher (6.5 sacks in ’17) both in blitz packages and coming off the edge.

 

**TRADE**

Miami Dolphins trade picks 11 and 42 to Tampa Bay for pick 7

 

7. Miami Dolphins (f/ TB): Josh Rosen-QB/UCLA

 

Miami has done little to keep the secret that they’re actively seeking a QB to supplant Ryan Tannehill, and seeing the draft’s most pro-ready QB slide to this point makes the opportunity to jump up too sweet to let pass.  With word leaking that division-rival New England is interested in Rosen, Miami makes the move.  Although he lacks the athleticism of his QB classmates, Rosen is easily the most polished passer of the bunch, possessing pinpoint accuracy and a razor sharp mind for the game.  If HC Adam Gase can manage Rosen’s personality, Miami could end up with the steal of the draft.

 

8. Chicago Bears: Minkah Fitzpatrick-CB/Alabama

 

In a league where passing the football is becoming more and more prevalent, the 2017 Bears were only able to manage 8 INTs; only the Browns and Raiders had fewer.  Fitzpatrick is a Swiss Army Knife for the defensive backfield, able to play boundary corner, box safety, slot corner, or deep safety.  He can cover, tackle, and when challenged in the pass game, he gets his hands on the football and takes it away.  He had 6 INTs as a sophomore, before college QBs wizened up and stopped testing him.  He would immediately slide into the starting lineup to give Chicago a second cornerstone piece in their back-7 alongside Kyle Fuller.

 

9. San Francisco 49ers: Quenton Nelson-OG/Notre Dame

 

The ‘9ers believe that they have their franchise QB in the fold, so now it’s time to protect him.  After allowing 116 QB hits (which ranked 28^th in the NFL) and averaging only 4.1 yards per carry in 2017, GM John Lynch would be ecstatic to plug Nelson in next between rock solid LT Joe Staley and C Weston Richburg (who they added in free agency).  Widely considered one of the 3 best players in the draft, Nelson is a road-grader in the run game, and is excellent in pass protection.  He’s the kind of talent you need on the interior of your line when you face guys like Aaron Donald twice every season.

 

10. Oakland Raiders: Tremaine Edmunds-LB/Virginia Tech

 

Oakland was finally able to add some stability to their LB corps last season by picking up Navorro Bowman, who led the group in tackles in his shortened season with the team.  Bowman is currently a free agent, and is seemingly in no rush to re-sign.  GM Reggie McKenzie knows that he needs to upgrade a defense that lacks talent around Khalil Mack, and there’s no more talented defender in the class than Edmunds.  Although he’s only 19 years old, Edmunds’ combination of football pedigree, ridiculous measurables (250+ lbs, 34” arms, 4.5 speed), and solid production as a run defender, pass rusher, and coverage player portend an upside that exceeds any other defender in the draft.

 

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (f/ Mia): Denzel Ward-CB/Ohio State

 

What a break for Tampa Bay, as the draft’s best pure cover corner slides out of the top 10 for the second consecutive year (last year, Ward’s college teammate--Marshon Lattimore--suffered the same fate).  With Ward, Tampa can add a key piece that would help them improve upon a pass defense that allowed 7.8 yards per attempt to opposing passers last season, which ranked 29^th in the NFL.  His versatility will allow him to slide into the slot corner position as a rookie, while 2016 first-rounder Vernon Hargreaves and the recently re-signed Brent Grimes man the boundary.

 

12. Denver Broncos (f/Buf): Derwin James-S/Florida State

 

Vance Joseph has made no secret about wanting to revamp the team’s defensive corps, and with the departures of players like T.J. Ward, Aqib Talib, and Kayvon Webster in the last two offseasons, the defensive backfield looks to be the primary area of need on that side of the ball.  James’ combination of versatility (he can play safety, corner, or hybrid LB), size (6’2”, 215 lbs), athleticism (40” vertical and 11’ broad jump), and productivity (49 solo tackles and 11 passes defensed in 2017) would make him a cornerstone of a defensive youth movement in the Mile High City.

 

**TRADE**

Los Angeles Chargers trade picks 17 and 84 to Washington for pick 13

 

13. Los Angeles Chargers (f/ Was): Lamar Jackson-QB/Louisville

 

At some point, the Chargers need to begin preparing for life without Philip Rivers, and there’s no better way to do so than by grabbing the super-talented Jackson.  I’m on record with my belief that he should’ve gone back to school to become a more nuanced passer, but there’s no denying the offensive impact Jackson can have: 45 touchdowns in 13 games as a senior with only 10 interceptions in 2017.  HC Anthony Lynn put together a top-10 offense in Buffalo with Tyrod Taylor at the helm, so he has experience game-planning with a dual-threat QB, and giving Jackson time to learn behind a pro like Rivers can only help his development.

 

14. Green Bay Packers: Calvin Ridley-WR/Alabama

 

Aaron Rodgers’ trust in the process gets rewarded here with a new weapon in the passing game.  Jordy Nelson was released this offseason, and Randall Cobb is another year older with a $10M cap number.  Behind Cobb and Davante Adams are the relatively unproven Geronimo Allison (a former Bandit draft crush), Trevor Davis, and some dude named DeAngelo Yancey.  Adding a weapon like Ridley, who has the speed to threaten teams over the top and RAC ability to burn defenses underneath, would not only placate Rodgers’ disappointment, but also set the Packers up to have an effective young receiving corps for the next few years.

 

15. Arizona Cardinals: Tevita “Vita” Tuliakiono Tuipuloto Mosese Va'hae Faletau Vea-DT/Washington

 

Oh come on, you just knew I was going to put his full name there This pick is a classic case of value, and after missing out on Jackson and Ridley, Cardinals’ GM Steve Keim won’t hesitate to add a wrecking ball like Vea to his defensive front.  Noticeably devoid of young talent outside of the much-maligned Robert Nkemdiche, Arizona’s defensive line simply wasn’t able to generate the same type of push without Calais Campbell taking pressure off of their EDGE rushers, which resulted in a precipitous drop off in sacks (from a league-leading 48 in 2016 to 37 in 2017).  While Vea isn’t an EDGE threat like Campbell, he is more than capable of collapsing the pocket and creating opportunities for Chandler Jones and Markus Golden to provide pressure on the group of talented young passers in the NFC West.

 

16. Baltimore Ravens: Mike McGlinchey-OT/Notre Dame

 

I’d love to give Ozzie Newsome someone from Alabama in his final draft with the team, but Ridley went 2 picks earlier, and I think this is a bit high for either Payne or Adams.  Instead, I’m giving Baltimore another Notre Dame tackle to pair with 2016 first-round pick Ronnie Stanley.  With James Hurst swinging over to LG, the RT spot is wide open, and McGlinchey is a perfect fit on the right side.  Despite his height (6’8”), McGlinchey manages to play with good bend, and his footwork and play angles are excellent.  He’ll need to improve his run blocking to maximize his ability, but he’s likely an off-the-bus starter for a team that could use all the help it can get on offense.

 

17. Washington Redskins (f/ LAC): Will Hernandez-OG/UTEP

 

I wanted to list Hernandez’s position as “destroyer of things”, but I figured I’d play it straight.  He’s a massive man with elite strength and solid footwork, who mauls people in the run game and handles his business in pass protection.  In other words: he’s awesome in every way; one of my favorite players in the draft.  The fact that he would be an immediate replacement for Shawn Lauvao and help to upgrade an offensive line that allowed 41 sacks and 98 QB hits and produced a paltry 3.6 yards/carry in 2017 is simply a bonus as far as I’m concerned.

 

18. Seattle Seahawks: Mike Hughes-CB/Central Florida

 

The Legion of Boom feels like a long time ago, doesn’t it?  Well, the departure of Richard Sherman marked the parting of the last vestige of the corner group that comprised the Legion, and in its place nests a triumvirate of unprovens.  Mike Hughes is a straight-up baller who had 4 INTs and 11 passes defensed in 2017, and would likely be drafted higher if not for some off-field concerns.  As Seattle showed with Frank Clark, they aren’t afraid of domestic violence accusations stemming from college.  Hughes would re-join former Central Florida teammate Shaq Griffin (the one with two hands) as they hope to re-establish dominance in the Seattle secondary.

 

19. Dallas Cowboys: DaRon Payne-DT/Alabama

 

While I believe most people will want to give Dallas a receiver here, I’m not ready to do that.  De facto GM Will McClay (yes, I know, the Joneses technically make the picks, but he’s the guy behind them) has always been about value over need, and Payne is too good to pass up at this point.  He’s an absolute stud against the run, and he’s got some untapped pass rush ability as well (27 QB pressures as a junior in 2017).  For a team that will likely lose David Irving to free agency after 2018, bringing in an interior force that can help free up franchise player Demarcus Lawrence makes a lot of sense.

 

20. Detroit Lions: Harold Landry-EDGE/Boston College

 

#whenneedandvaluemeet.  Seriously.  Landry is one of the best pure EDGE rushers in the class, with 25 sacks and 48 TFLs in 3 college seasons.  He’s got the type of bend/close ability to get low around the corner and arc to the QB, which would be a welcome sight for a Motor City team that has to face both Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins twice each season.  Landry’s addition would also protect the team in the event that they’re unable to come to an agreement on a long-term deal with franchise player Ziggy Ansah.

 

21. Cincinnati Bengals (f/ Buf): James Daniels-C/Iowa

 

Cincinnati’s offensive line has been slowly deteriorating as players depart in free agency.  Since 2015, they’ve lost Andrew Whitworth, Kevin Zeitler, Russell Bodine, and Andre Smith, and players that they’ve drafted (like Jake Fisher and Cedric Ogbuehi) have proven unable to take the reins on starting gigs. After trading for Cordy Glenn to take over at LT, the Bengals’ OL focus shifts to the interior, and they’d be fortunate to have Daniels fall into their lap.  He’s versatile, athletic, technically-sound, and built perfectly to man the pivot spot.  He’s also a 3-year starter that played in multiple blocking schemes in Kirk Ferentz’s offense.

 

22. Denver Broncos (f/Buf): Leighton Vander Esch-LB/Boise State

 

The defensive makeover in Denver continues with the super-athletic LVE, who gets to continue to be a Bronco.  The interior pairing of Todd Davis and Brandon Marshall don’t exactly scare anyone, as neither possesses the lateral range or tackling ability to force opposing offensive coordinators to game plan for them.  LVE is a threat to slide out of round 1 if teams are afraid of his neck condition, but for any team that’s willing to take a chance, he has phenomenal upside.  As an ILB in a 3-4 scheme, he can impact games as a tackler (91 solo tackles as a senior), pass rusher (4.0 sacks), and pass defender (2 INTs and 5 passes defensed).

 

23. New England Patriots (f/ LAR): Jaire Alexander-CB/Louisville

 

I’ll be sick to my stomach if this pick goes down, which virtually guarantees that it’ll happen   Alexander might be my favorite corner in the draft, possessing the combination of speed, fluidity, and tackling ability that makes him a great fit for any scheme.  He’s a plug-and-play corner with excellent ball awareness, which would be a welcome addition for a secondary that has lost both Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan to free agency in subsequent offseasons.

 

24. Carolina Panthers: Marcus Davenport-EDGE/Texas-San Antonio

 

Mario Addison and Julius Peppers stepped up admirably in 2017, producing 11.0 sacks each.  With Peppers turning 38 and Addison only signed through 2019, re-stocking the pass rush cupboard should be among Carolina’s priorities.  Davenport is a terrific athlete with the ideal body type to play the 9-technique DE spot, but he’s very raw.  Being able to play situationally behind a future HOFer like Peppers would give him a chance to learn the position and acclimate to the speed and rigors of the NFL game.

 

25. Tennessee Titans: Taven Bryan-DL/Florida

 

If ever there lived a player perfectly-built to play a position in the NFL, it’s Taven Bryan and the 5-technique spot.  6’4”, 290 lbs, country strong (30 reps of 225 lbs), and with a ridiculous 35” vertical leap, Bryan has aptly drawn comparisons to J.J. Watt from some analysts.  While he’s nowhere near the finished product that Watt was coming out of Wisconsin, Bryan has flashed an uncommon ability to be disruptive, and could potentially team with Jurrell Casey to make life miserable for AFC South offenses.

 

26. Atlanta Falcons: Maurice Hurst-DT/Michigan

 

The Falcons generated only 6.5 sacks from the DT position in 2017, and 2.5 of those came from Dontari Poe, who is no longer with the team.  When you face Cam Newton and Drew Brees twice per year each, you need to be able to generate pressure up the middle.  Hurst topped 5.0 sacks from the DT position in consecutive years at Michigan, and would make a terrific complement to Grady Jarrett along Atlanta’s defensive line.  Picture being an offensive coordinator that has to plan to block Vic Beasley, Jarrett, Hurst, and 2017 first round pick Takk McKinley.  Yeah, no thanks.

 

27. New Orleans Saints: Arden Key-EDGE/LSU

 

As much as the Saints’ defensive fortunes may have turned in 2017, it was the same old story with respect to the pass rush: Cameron Jordan is great, and everyone else is more or less unnoticeable.  If this team wants to take the next step, finding a reliable complement to Jordan would be a great next step.  As his 11.0 sacks in 11 games back in 2016 showed, Key is an immensely talented pass rusher, but his inconsistent effort and output have kept teams from being all-in on him as an NFL player.  For a team chasing a Super Bowl title in the twilight of Drew Brees’ career, the possibility of adding an impact pass rusher this late in round 1, let alone one from a local program, must look very enticing.

 

28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Rashaan Evans-LB/Alabama

 

Whether Ryan Shazier returns to the field or not, the Steelers are in clear need of an upgrade at ILB.  The team allowed 4.4 yards per carry in 2017, and their only addition to the LB group this offseason was the heretofore-uninspiring Jon Bostic.  While Evans’ college career needs to be viewed within the context of playing behind a slew of day 1 and 2 picks along Alabama’s star-studded defensive line, he routinely showed the ability to threaten offensive backfields and handle coverage responsibilities in addition to displaying the sideline-to-sideline range that has become a trademark characteristic for Crimson Tide LBs.

 

29. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kolton Miller-OT/UCLA

 

Doug Marrone and Tom Coughlin; two guys that love their big uglies up front. RT Jermey Parnell has only one year remaining on his deal after the 2018 season, and it includes zero guaranteed money.  For a team that centers its entire offense on pounding the football, and is getting close to maxed out on spending ability after two free-wheeling offseasons, it’s important to perpetuate an influx of talented O-linemen.  Miller is arguably the most talented offensive lineman in the draft, and shows the potential to get better with experience.  As a former OL coach, Marrone would likely be salivating at the thought of adding an athletic tackle who happens to be 6’9” with 10-3/4” hands.

 

30. Minnesota Vikings: Isaiah Wynn-OG/Georgia

 

The interior OL guys just keep coming; I know @Blokestradamus will be happy! After finally stabilizing the tackle positions by signing Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers last offseason, it’s time for the Vikings to handle the guard spots.  Fortunately for them, the depth of the class keeps a player of Wynn’s caliber on the board.  Even though he kicked out to LT as a senior, Wynn’s short, stocky frame and efficiency working toward the football off the snap peg him as a perfect fit for guard in the NFL.  He has great technique and footwork, and if he can add some bulk to his lower body, he has pro bowl potential.

 

31. New England Patriots: Connor Williams-OT/Texas

 

I’m sure that the Patriots aren’t lying when they say that they like 2017 third round pick Antonio Garcia as the heir-apparent to the departed Nate Solder at LT, but I’m also sure that they don’t feel 100 percent comfortable depending upon the triumvirate of Garcia, LaAdrian Waddle, and Marcus Cannon to man the OT spots in front of Tom Brady.  Opinions are largely split on Connor Williams after his apparent regression as a junior, but he’s a smart kid that works hard and plays with solid technique more often than not, and my money is on Bill Belichick believing that he can get the most out of him at OT.  If he can’t, it’s still entirely possible that Williams ends up kicking inside at some point a la Justin Britt of Seattle.

 

**TRADE**

Indianapolis trades picks 37 and 100 to Philadelphia for pick 32

 

32. Indianapolis Colts: D.J. Moore-WR/Maryland

 

If Andrew Luck returns to something close to 100%, he’s going to need some weapons, and the WR cupboard is bare behind T.Y. Hilton (unless you count Ryan Grant as a realistic threat).  Moore has the speed and shiftiness to threaten all levels of a defense, and has a reliable set of hands.  That he gobbled up nearly 40% of his teams targets shows that he can handle the load of a WR1, but the fact that there are established pass catchers like Hilton and Jack Doyle already in the fold means that he doesn’t have to do so right away.

Terrific board.  Where I disagree with your prediction is that although the Jets like Mayfield a lot I see them pouncing on Darnold if he is available. The Browns passing on Darnold will have repercussions for us.  I just don't see the Browns passing on Darnold for Allen. That's not to say that if they took the Wyoming qb that it would be a stunning development but I just don't see them taking the riskier pick because of their qb deficit history. 

 

Not only are you astute, perspicacious, adroit and pugnacious you are also assiduous. Without question you are a work horse and not a show pony. 

[qwksilver]

Nice Job as always. This is the reason we all look. I really hope Dorsey goes with the biggest arm/biggest ceiling because I think our FO likes Allen as well.

Edited April 23, 2018 by qwksilver
spelling

[thunderingsquid]

Amen, brother!  Nice mock.  I would be so pleased. 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, P51 said:

Quality work again Bandito, makes sense IMO throughout. 

 

Seattle picking Hughes and Davenport dropping into the 20s were the only things that seemed off to me (in a minor way).

Just wondering what you thought of Josh Jackson and why Hughes over him to Seattle at corner?

 

Landing Darnold a 5 for that deal would Great in my book!!

 

I am convinced Hughes will go higher than Josh Jackson. What does Josh Jackson do at a really high level? I just don't see anything on tape. 

 

Good mock Bandit. I am coming to the conclusion that the top 3 plays out exactly as you have it. 

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I tried so hard to give Darnold to Cleveland, but the feeling that they want Allen just won't go away 

 

I have been on Darnold to Cleveland and Allen is a smokescreen all the way through until the last 3 or 4 days. I really think it might be Allen. 

[ExWNYer]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

As many of you know, I do one (and only one) mock draft each year, and you’d all ever stop reading it and indulging my ramblings, then you wouldn’t have to suffer it anymore.

 

However, since that hasn’t happened yet, I do hereby present Bandit’s 2018 Mock Draft for your enjoyment, bemusement, criticism, etc.

 

Note that what I present here is what I believe will happen, and not what I would do were I each team’s decision-maker.

 

As always, I’ll note that I’m only average at best when it comes to predicting these things.  In a given year, I’ll correctly connect only 5-8 players with the team that drafts them, and predict 24-26 of the players that are selected in round 1, so please keep that in mind before you praise or criticize the work

 

Now, without any further ado, here we go…

 

**TRADE**

Buffalo trades picks 12, 22, and 65 to Denver for pick 5

 

5. Buffalo Bills (f/ Den): Sam Darnold-QB/USC

 

Could this really happen?  From certain #1 overall pick to #5 in a trade-down?  It’s a bit of a fall, but let’s face it: the concerns regarding his propensity for turnovers are legitimate. What makes him the apple of Buffalo’s eye?  He has the best combination of accuracy, arm strength, athleticism, and scheme diversity of any QB in this class. He also executed a lot of the kind of RPO-style offense that Brian Daboll wants to run, and aside from the on-field stuff, he’s a “process” guy.  What would be interesting to see is how many fans welcome another California kid to Western NY.

 

 

17. Washington Redskins (f/ LAC): Will Hernandez-OG/UTEP

 

I wanted to list Hernandez’s position as “destroyer of things”, but I figured I’d play it straight.  He’s a massive man with elite strength and solid footwork, who mauls people in the run game and handles his business in pass protection.  In other words: he’s awesome in every way; one of my favorite players in the draft.  The fact that he would be an immediate replacement for Shawn Lauvao and help to upgrade an offensive line that allowed 41 sacks and 98 QB hits and produced a paltry 3.6 yards/carry in 2017 is simply a bonus as far as I’m concerned.

 

 

Thanks for the effort and sharing this, Bandit. Solid and well thought out, as always. I love the thought of the Bills landing Darnold and hope you're right. The one thing I disagree with is your Redskins pick.The tea leaves here in Virginia seem to be pointing towards defense. I think they're staying put and hoping to land someone like Vita Vea but, then again, they are the Redskins so they always reserve the right to screw it up. Again, nice job.

[Mojo44]

 Darnold or Rosen are worth the trade up.  Not Mayfield or Allen. BTW I am seeing many mock drafts  where three of the top for quarterbacks in the draft go to the AFC East. If the Pats* choose one in the first then it will be four AFC East quarterbacks in the first round. I wonder if that has ever happened before.

[beerme1]

Awesome stuff Bandit. I just can’t stand anymore draft stuff but this was a pleasure to read. Thank you!

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Good stuff.

 

Waiting to see which clown copies the entire post in the response.

 

It’s happening lol

Edited April 23, 2018 by beerme1

[TigerJ]

A while back, the rumor was that Sam Darnold was the only QB that Gettleman would pick if he were available at #2.  If that rumor turns out to be factual, then this mock can't happen.  If that rumor was just part of an ever thickening cloud of smoke, it is not at all impossible to think the Bills could trade up and draft him.  Would I like that?  Maybe.  We'll see how it all pans out on Thursday.

[thebandit27]

11 hours ago, ExWNYer said:

 

Thanks for the effort and sharing this, Bandit. Solid and well thought out, as always. I love the thought of the Bills landing Darnold and hope you're right. The one thing I disagree with is your Redskins pick.The tea leaves here in Virginia seem to be pointing towards defense. I think they're staying put and hoping to land someone like Vita Vea but, then again, they are the Redskins so they always reserve the right to screw it up. Again, nice job.

 

I definitely think that Washington would take either Vea or James if they got to their slot--the trade changed things for me.

 

Plus, I heart Will Hernandez and I don't care who knows it

[billsredneck1]

16 hours ago, TOboy said:

Nice job! 

 

Can't help but think Miami got a much better deal on there move up than the Bills did. 

 

Still, if it lands this way and we get Darnold, I'll be swimmingly happy! 

 

i hope miami gets skunked by az. i'd rather not have rosen in this division. that's just one more qb our d will have to take out of commission.

[Gordio]

17 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

I don't understand why the Giants would pass on a QB.  Eli Manning isn't getting any younger and now seems like the perfect time for them to have their pick and let him sit behind Eli for 2-3 seasons; much like Rodgers behind Favre.  This opportunity is too obvious for NYG to pass up.

 

 

I got to agree with this.  Everybody assumes they are passing on a QB but I don't understand the logic behind this.  They are in prime position to grab a QB, why wouldn't they?  

 

As always Bandit, nice work regardless. 

[Blokestradamus]

Bravo, senor Bandito. I'd normally think of mock drafts as something to wipe my backside with but I kinda like this one.

 

I'll even let you off that you basically copied my trade with @billspro from the mock draft thread (and that you picked the wrong guard at 17)

 

Love the fits for Landry & Hurst especially. And if Bill ends up with another pair of "my guys", I might just have to consider that I was born to be a Pats fan.

 

[P51]

17 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yeah, I definitely think that Davenport could go much higher, but I just didn't see a great slot for him outside of Denver at 12 (maybe Washington).

 

Admittedly I went back and forth between Hughes and Jackson to Seattle.  I actually like Jackson quite a bit, but I think he's a bit more scheme-specific than Hughes.  I also think that I like Hughes' toughness and long speed a bit more.

 

By the way, your big board was outstanding

 

Re: Davenport, I think the Colts in a trade down (which you dont have happening, obviously and Smith is a great pick for them) would target him and I wouldnt sleep on him at 6 either as their pass rush is awful, Henry Anderson and M. Hunt at LE??. For me their grade is about identical with Davenport being more of a comfortable projection at a premium position. I think the 9ers are darkhorse for him as well, hard to argue with the Nelson pick, great value and makes sense, but Arik Armstead is out of position and I think on the trade block, he just doesnt fit their new D. Tough call with the 9ers as well. It'll will be interesting to see how the league views him.

 

Jackson certainly is scheme specific (zone) and IMO a perimeter CB or FS position change only. He is not good in the slot and should always have his eyes on the play in front of him. Long speed and toughness are fair points, Jackson fits the Seattle D very well, his spatial awareness, route recognition and eye discipline coupled with his ability to high point, attack and make the play on the ball is special from zone coverage. Hughes is talented and I could easily see him going in the first round, Seattle's traditional height preferences oddly seem to be going out the door lately and pick like Hughes could signal a change in coverage philosophy, making that an interesting pick as their current CB's seem to be shorter than they have been historically collectively at this point in time. 

 

Lol, well thank you regarding the big board, I appreciate it!! IF you get some time, I would appreciate any critique or feedback you have, my time this year was a all time low in "draft prep", if you dont, no worries 

Edited April 24, 2018 by P51
English...

[P51]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am convinced Hughes will go higher than Josh Jackson. What does Josh Jackson do at a really high level? I just don't see anything on tape. 

You could very well be right, no doubt.

 

IMO Jackson does many things at a high or really high level including plays zone coverage, triggering from zone, press and bail, read and reacts, correctly chooses when to drop coverage naturally while showing route/pattern recognition, is instinctual and has an innate feel for the play as it develops, has situational and field awareness in addition to anticipation skill and high football IQ, trail technique, on field reaction speed, contests the catch point, ability to play on the big stage, his catch radius is good and his ability to deflect passes with one hand when he cant get two on it is all high level, or really high level and has elite eye discipline from zone coverage and elite hands and ball skills. All these things are on the Iowa St., Penn St., Mich St., Minnesota, Ohio St., Wisconsin, and Boston College tape.

 

He has his warts for sure, and I wouldnt play him in the slot, or in a man based coverage system. I could see Hughes going before him, even though their 40 times are fairly even, Hughes has go get it speed IMO for instance, and has the ability to play pure man and the slot. Their combine numbers go tit for tat... Hughes is smaller with smaller hands and shorter arms (not that Jacksons arm length is stellar) Whats you flavor is what it comes down to the two of them for me, bigger zone ballhawk or shorter more diverse corner ?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, P51 said:

You could very well be right, no doubt.

 

IMO Jackson does many things at a high or really high level including plays zone coverage, triggering from zone, press and bail, read and reacts, correctly chooses when to drop coverage naturally while showing route/pattern recognition, is instinctual and has an innate feel for the play as it develops, has situational and field awareness in addition to anticipation skill and high football IQ, trail technique, on field reaction speed, contests the catch point, ability to play on the big stage, his catch radius is good and his ability to deflect passes with one hand when he cant get two on it is all high level, or really high level and has elite eye discipline from zone coverage and elite hands and ball skills. All these things are on the Iowa St., Penn St., Mich St., Minnesota, Ohio St., Wisconsin, and Boston College tape.

 

He has his warts for sure, and I wouldnt play him in the slot, or in a man based coverage system. I could see Hughes going before him, even though their 40 times are fairly even, Hughes has go get it speed IMO for instance, and has the ability to play pure man and the slot. Their combine numbers go tit for tat... Hughes is smaller with smaller hands and shorter arms (not that Jacksons arm length is stellar) Whats you flavor is what it comes down to the two of them for me, bigger zone ballhawk or shorter more diverse corner ?

 

I do see those things on tape but I don't necessarily see him do them at a high level. I think Josh Jackson is a solid corner. I think he will be an NFL starter and have a nice career. But I think that is him to be honest, I don't see the elite traits or the upside to have a 1st round grade on him or to believe he is going to be a true difference maker at the next level. 

[thebandit27]

Huh...maybe I'm not totally nuts:

 

Jason La Canfora‏Verified account @JasonLaCanfora 41m41 minutes ago

More

Teams I hear most buzz about moving up - Bills, Cards, Colts (back into late 1st rnd). Many want to move down, SEA, DEN and PHI likely will

[TPS]

Curious as to the trade chart you use? The JJ chart shows the jump from 12 to 7 is 500 points and 22 alone is worth 780. Is his the new market for moving up? Thanks.

[thebandit27]

14 hours ago, TPS said:

Curious as to the trade chart you use? The JJ chart shows the jump from 12 to 7 is 500 points and 22 alone is worth 780. Is his the new market for moving up? Thanks.

 

I use both Rich Hill's value chart and Johnson's.

 

On the Hill chart, Buffalo is paying ~45% premium to move up.

On the Johnson chart, Buffalo is paying ~23% premium to move up.

 

For comparison's sake, let's look at the Jets-Colts trade-up:

 

On the Hill chart, NYJ paid ~52% premium to move up.

On the Johnson chart, NYJ paid ~24% premium to move up.

Edited April 25, 2018 by thebandit27

[TPS]

16 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I use both Rich Hill's value chart and Johnson's.

 

On the Hill chart, Buffalo is paying ~45% premium to move up.

On the Johnson chart, Buffalo is paying ~23% premium to move up.

Thanks. Fortunately, only one more day until the reality. Nice job though.