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6 QB's off the board by pick 16


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3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes we have holes.

 

No they don't need to be filled this year. They're building for the long term, and thank God for that.

 

Thing is, Beane and Co obviously disagree, as they've been making move after move for more than a year showing that they plan to trade up. They might not be able to, but it's very obvious that's their plan.

 

As for 6 QBs in the top 16, I don't see anyone but you saying it's looking more and more that way. Five or even six in the first round wouldn't surprise me, though. Nearly everyone has five in the 1st as a very reasonable possibility.

I published these elsewhere on this forum.  I don't disagree that 5 or 6 QBs is the predictions from a lot of people.  But that is a lot of QB compared to what has happened in the past.

 

ost years there are 2-3 first round picks total.  This year's pundit prediction is 4-5 picks in the first round. Most years there are 1 to 2 picks in the top 10 (that is in the top 5 and the 6-10 slots).  This year are supposed to be 5.   Somehow that doesn't sound right.....Four years with 4,,,,,  Seven years with 3,,,,,

Five years with 2,,,,,,,,,,,Two years with 1.     6 QB in the first round just doesn't fit somehow.  Especially since the college QB's might come our early or a year later (redshirt somehow) to avoid a year when they could get pushed out of the 1st round.

Year................top 5............... 6-10................. 11 to 32

===========================================

2018............... 3?..................... 2?..................... 1?

 

2017 ................1......................... 1..................... 1....................,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2016 ................2.......................... 0................... 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2015 ................2.......................... 0.................. 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2014................ 1........................... 0.................. 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2013 ................1.......................... 0................... 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1

2012 ................2.......................... 1................... 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4

2011 ................1.......................... 2.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4

2010 .................1..........................0................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2009..................2......................... 0................... 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2008................. 1......................... 0.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2007 .................1.......................... 0.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2006 .................1.......................... 1................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2005 .................1.......................... 0................. 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2004 .................2............................ 1.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4

2003 .................1.......................... 1................... 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4

2002 ................2............................. 0 .................1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2001 ................1............................... 0.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2000 .................1.......................... 0...................... 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1

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30 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

6 QBs have never gone in round 1 let alone the top 16. 

 

The QB frenzy is officially out of control. 

  Agree with your general thought but we should note that 6 QB's were chosen in the first round back in 1983.  The AFC East along with the Chiefs each taking a QB.

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2 hours ago, elroy16 said:

Good thing scouts and GM's don't base their decisions based on interviews alone.

 

This is a decent article going through Louisville's offense.

 

http://settingedge.com/lamar-jackson-pro-ready

 

 

 

 

I don't think you can run this type of offense without a smart QB who understands coverages, how the route combinations attack those coverages, or the willingness to make all of the throws.

 

 

I'd be more than happy with Jackson at #12. 

 

good stuff, very informative - I have warmed up to Jackson as well...

 

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1 hour ago, BuffaninATL said:

 

good stuff, very informative - I have warmed up to Jackson as well...

 

 

 

He's not my first choice, but I think he has a good enough skill set to be a productive QB. 

 

It'll be pretty disappointing if they don't come away with any of the top 6 guys. Each of them has something I could use to talk myself into believing they'll be a good QB. 

 

 

I'd be surprised if all 6 went in the top 16, but certainly not the first round. Who knows, it's going to make for an entertaining first round though.

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2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

It's never happened.

 

With most "big boards" have 2, maybe 3 QBs in their top 30 or even 50 players, the idea that 6 QBs are going to go in the first 32 picks seems far fetched. 

 

The second tier QBs aren't as good as people think. I think the QBs are generally going to go later than expected. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if 4 or less went round 1. 

 

There’s a higher possibility of being invaded by male strippers from Mars than 6 QB’s going in the top 16.

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11 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:

It's looking more and more like Allen, Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Jackson and Rudolph go with the first 16 picks.

 

It's possible.  It would be unprecedented, and frankly, despite all the hoopla, I don't think this is a draft class of unprecedented talent.

 

I'm not saying there aren't good QB in the class, and I can certainly be wrong.  But I'd be surprised of more than 4 QB go before pick 22.

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11 hours ago, greeneblitz said:

Jackson to the Bills would be our worst case senario stuck with yet another QB that can't throw the ball.

Don't want Jackson under any possible contingency.

 

I think we are fixing to move up way high and take a much bigger name than Jackson anyway.

 

Will be upset if it doesn't pan out that way.

 

 

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12 hours ago, greeneblitz said:

Jackson to the Bills would be our worst case senario stuck with yet another QB that can't throw the ball.

Jackson and Allen have horrible accuracy numbers. No thank you. If Jackson and Rudolph are the only ones left at 12, take Rudolph. Not thrilled with this scenario but if the Giants don't want to deal we're stuck. 

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I think we see a little more slide out of the mid tier QBs.  After so many free agents and guys off the board - I’d be surprised to see 6 in the first 16. Mason as the 6th qb going top 16 seems a real long shot. 

 

I could see 4 top 10, 1 more in the first and then none til mid 2nd possibly as a curveball at the opposite end of this. 

 

were starting to see people pencil in A LOT of guys to teams with starters in the first...odds are teams like the ravens, saints, patriots, (dolphins) etc... don’t grab a guy until day two 

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Just now, Dkollidas said:

I just don’t see the Bills taking Jackson. They’ll take Rudolph before Jackson. That I believe wholeheartedly. 

 

I cant see them taking a guy with so little upside at 12. Jackson at least could be special- guys like Rudolph go day 2 regularly 

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9 hours ago, elroy16 said:

Good thing scouts and GM's don't base their decisions based on interviews alone.

 

This is a decent article going through Louisville's offense.

 

http://settingedge.com/lamar-jackson-pro-ready

 

 

 

 

I don't think you can run this type of offense without a smart QB who understands coverages, how the route combinations attack those coverages, or the willingness to make all of the throws.

 

 

I'd be more than happy with Jackson at #12. 

Elroy, there are many on this board that hate facts!! They like to watch Fox News!!

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14 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I published these elsewhere on this forum.  I don't disagree that 5 or 6 QBs is the predictions from a lot of people.  But that is a lot of QB compared to what has happened in the past.

 

ost years there are 2-3 first round picks total.  This year's pundit prediction is 4-5 picks in the first round. Most years there are 1 to 2 picks in the top 10 (that is in the top 5 and the 6-10 slots).  This year are supposed to be 5.   Somehow that doesn't sound right.....Four years with 4,,,,,  Seven years with 3,,,,,

Five years with 2,,,,,,,,,,,Two years with 1.     6 QB in the first round just doesn't fit somehow.  Especially since the college QB's might come our early or a year later (redshirt somehow) to avoid a year when they could get pushed out of the 1st round.

Year................top 5............... 6-10................. 11 to 32

===========================================

2018............... 3?..................... 2?..................... 1?

 

2017 ................1......................... 1..................... 1....................,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2016 ................2.......................... 0................... 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2015 ................2.......................... 0.................. 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2014................ 1........................... 0.................. 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2013 ................1.......................... 0................... 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1

2012 ................2.......................... 1................... 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4

2011 ................1.......................... 2.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4

2010 .................1..........................0................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2009..................2......................... 0................... 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2008................. 1......................... 0.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2007 .................1.......................... 0.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2006 .................1.......................... 1................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2005 .................1.......................... 0................. 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2004 .................2............................ 1.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4

2003 .................1.......................... 1................... 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4

2002 ................2............................. 0 .................1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2001 ................1............................... 0.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2000 .................1.......................... 0...................... 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1

 

 

The reason there are a lot of QBs predicted to go in the first round is that this is a rich year for QBs, same as 2014 was a rich year for WRs.

 

Yeah, it doesn't fit. 

 

And that's good news for teams that need a QB like we do and can get up high.

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19 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:

It's looking more and more like Allen, Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Jackson and Rudolph go with the first 16 picks.

 

My thoughts are

 

Allen to the Browns, Darnold to the Giants, Rosen to the Jets, Mayfield to Broncos, Jackson to the Bills and Rudolph to the Ravens.

 

I'm thrilled if this happens.  Bills get the best athlete with the highest upside in this draft.  Can he start in 2018, no, can he play in specific packages during games to add something else to game plan for, absolutely yes.

 

The secondary benefit with 6 QB's going first many top players will slip to our spot at 22.

 

With holes at MLB, OLB, WR, Interrior Offensive line, 3 technique DT, Slot Corner, OT and RB we have exactly 8 picks remaining.  

 

Lets use this draft wisely and fill our roster.

This certainly would BE a best case scenario, unless darnold were to magically drop to 12.  Absolutely foolish to put all your eggs (3 #1s and 2 #2s) in a draft with no single standout QB.   LJ  will be a lot better than advertised.  it is too bad so many cannot get past the lazy tyrod and rg3 comparisons.

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14 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

It's never happened.

 

With most "big boards" have 2, maybe 3 QBs in their top 30 or even 50 players, the idea that 6 QBs are going to go in the first 32 picks seems far fetched. 

 

The second tier QBs aren't as good as people think. I think the QBs are generally going to go later than expected. 

 

 

Where are all these mysterious big boards of yours?

 

Here? Where the top four QBs are in the top eight picks?

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/07/nfl-draft-top-prospects-big-board-top-100

 

Here? Where Drafttek has the top four in the top 11 places?

 

https://www.drafttek.com/Top-100-NFL-Draft-Prospects-2018.asp

 

Matt Miller's where they're in the top 12?

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2763483-2018-nfl-draft-big-board-matt-millers-post-combine-rankings

 

Here where they're in the top 23?

 

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/sd-sp-nfl-draft-2018-big-board-top-25-prospects-20180402-story.html

 

Here, where PFF doesn't like Jackson but has the other three in the top 6 and Rudolph and Lamar Jackson at 20 and 21?

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pff-draft-board-top-100-players-for-the-2018-nfl-draft

 

Kiper, who has the top four in the top ten places?

 

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/mel-kipers-big-board-position-rankings-top-2018/story?id=53475544

 

Newsday, who has five in the top 28?

 

https://projects.newsday.com/feature-grid/sports/football/nfl-draft-2018-big-board-top-100-prospects/

 

Daniel Jeremiah with the top four in the top 14 spots

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000919918/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft-20

 

I mean, come on, man, that's nonsense.

 

 

 

 

 

I think six in the top round could be high, but five seems like a very reasonable possibility.

 

 

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