6 QB's off the board by pick 16

[CEN-CAL17]

Best athlete but technically probably the 8 best QB.... Let’s be honest if Jackson couldn’t run. He’d be drafted 3rd or later.

 

QBs don’t run in the league. I’ll pass, give me Rudolph in tat scenario.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Denver is not drafting a QB.

 

Elway has burned multiple picks on QBs and has been burned. His best experience has has been using veterans and so feels comfortable building around Keenum.He probably takes Quenton Nelson at 5.

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The reason there are a lot of QBs predicted to go in the first round is that this is a rich year for QBs, same as 2014 was a rich year for WRs.

 

Yeah, it doesn't fit. 

 

And that's good news for teams that need a QB like we do and can get up high.

So if that is true,  you could argue that  the sixth pick this year is like a first pick for some poor QB years?    Our highest pick is #12, so if 6 non-QB's are taken before our pick, we get the same as some year's first QB by staying pat?   (Frankly, I think the pundits are overranking the present crop of QB to get internet clicks and attention. The 4th QB might be available at #12.  We won't know for 5 years if he was good enough if that happens. )

[Doc Brown]

17 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I published these elsewhere on this forum.  I don't disagree that 5 or 6 QBs is the predictions from a lot of people.  But that is a lot of QB compared to what has happened in the past.

 

ost years there are 2-3 first round picks total.  This year's pundit prediction is 4-5 picks in the first round. Most years there are 1 to 2 picks in the top 10 (that is in the top 5 and the 6-10 slots).  This year are supposed to be 5.   Somehow that doesn't sound right.....Four years with 4,,,,,  Seven years with 3,,,,,

Five years with 2,,,,,,,,,,,Two years with 1.     6 QB in the first round just doesn't fit somehow.  Especially since the college QB's might come our early or a year later (redshirt somehow) to avoid a year when they could get pushed out of the 1st round.

Year................top 5............... 6-10................. 11 to 32

===========================================

2018............... 3?..................... 2?..................... 1?

 

2017 ................1......................... 1..................... 1....................,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2016 ................2.......................... 0................... 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2015 ................2.......................... 0.................. 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2014................ 1........................... 0.................. 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2013 ................1.......................... 0................... 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1

2012 ................2.......................... 1................... 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4

2011 ................1.......................... 2.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4

2010 .................1..........................0................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2009..................2......................... 0................... 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2008................. 1......................... 0.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2007 .................1.......................... 0.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2

2006 .................1.......................... 1................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2005 .................1.......................... 0................. 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2004 .................2............................ 1.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4

2003 .................1.......................... 1................... 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4

2002 ................2............................. 0 .................1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2001 ................1............................... 0.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3

2000 .................1.......................... 0...................... 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1

One year before the char cutoff ('99) five QB's were taken in the top 12 (Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith, Culpepper, McNown).  This class of QB's reminds me of that class as far as talent and diverging opinions on where you'd rank those QB's.  There were also a lot of QB needy teams like this year.  I could see 5 QB's taken in the top 12 like that year.  Maybe 6.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Just now, Doc Brown said:

One year before the char cutoff ('99) five QB's were taken in the top 12 (Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith, Culpepper, McNown).  This class of QB's reminds me of that class as far as talent and diverging opinions on where you'd rank those QB's.  There were also a lot of QB needy teams like this year.  I could see 5 QB's taken in the top 12 like that year.  Maybe 6.

 Well I wasn't trying to screw things by omitting 1999- I just figured this century would be a good place to stop counting on my fingers.  I think moving up to the pick 6 or 7 or 8 range should get us a guy who might be just as good as guys taken earlier.  They we still have some draft picks this year to get a top linebacker and some offensive line help.  No need to give up three 1st round and 2 second round picks.

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The reason there are a lot of QBs predicted to go in the first round is that this is a rich year for QBs, same as 2014 was a rich year for WRs.

 

Yeah, it doesn't fit. 

 

And that's good news for teams that need a QB like we do and can get up high.

 

I think it’s a little of both sides- yes qb rich but also a little of a frenzy in the speculation. 

 

A comparable might even be free agency this year. One of the larger qb classes of recent memory hitting the market and a ton projected at starter money... but as holes start filling sometimes you see a race to grab the last guy or sometimes you get him on the cheap ala aj McCarron. Mason or Lamar might be AJ in this story and go second round instead of top 16

[Thurman#1]

 

58 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

I think it’s a little of both sides- yes qb rich but also a little of a frenzy in the speculation. 

 

A comparable might even be free agency this year. One of the larger qb classes of recent memory hitting the market and a ton projected at starter money... but as holes start filling sometimes you see a race to grab the last guy or sometimes you get him on the cheap ala aj McCarron. Mason or Lamar might be AJ in this story and go second round instead of top 16

 

 

Fair enough. There's always a bit of a frenzy over QBs. Which includes spectacular years like the Rivers-Manning-Roethlisberger year.

 

I'm not smart enough to know where Mason or Lamar might go. I would predict 5, but wouldn't be at all surprised if it's only 4.

 

 

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

So if that is true,  you could argue that  the sixth pick this year is like a first pick for some poor QB years?    Our highest pick is #12, so if 6 non-QB's are taken before our pick, we get the same as some year's first QB by staying pat?   (Frankly, I think the pundits are overranking the present crop of QB to get internet clicks and attention. The 4th QB might be available at #12.  We won't know for 5 years if he was good enough if that happens. )

 

 

No, I don't think that's a reasonable assumption at all. No particular reason to think so. It doesn't work by a pattern. Each guy is an isolated case, good, bad or average. Because there are four guys ranked high this year doesn't have anything to do with how well-evaluated the fifth or sixth guys are. Or anyone else. It only means they are below the top four, but absolutely nothing about how far below. That's all you can say. Just below? Way below? No way to know.

 

And there's also no reason to think the pundits are over-ranking the crop for clicks. They were pretty negative last year. Was that because they wanted to avoid clicks? They're saying what they think. That doesn't mean they'll be correct, of course, but they're not changing their evals for clicks. There's no reason to think positives get more clicks than negatives. And if there was, they'd have been much more positive last year (and every single year). That theory doesn't make sense.

Edited April 13, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Buffalo03]

It was said at the combine that some scouts have asked Jackson to transition to WR. Why would a team spend a 1st round pick or even a 2nd round pick on a QB that some teams want to play WR?

[NoSaint]

33 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

It was said at the combine that some scouts have asked Jackson to transition to WR. Why would a team spend a 1st round pick or even a 2nd round pick on a QB that some teams want to play WR?

 

Because some teams are dumb.

 

I’m not sure whether that’s the ones that want him at wr or the ones wanting him at qb.

 

also, some of those teams may have just wanted to see a reaction.